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This study describes the development of a com mon factor model for a cross-lagged difference in volving a measure of aural comprehension and an intellectual composite. The direction of the dif ference was that the Listening Test predicted the composite more accurately than the composite pre dicted the Listening Test. A complex model which allowed seemingly identical common factors ap pearing at different ages to be highly, but imper fectly, correlated fit the 32 x 32 table of intercorre lations of 16 variables measured at each of two time periods. The model also described quite accurately the multiple correlations on which the cross-lagged difference was based. Aural compre hension at grade 5 was equidistant from the vectors of the two general factors at grades 5 and 11; but aural comprehension at grade 11, while close to the general factor at grade 11, was outside the space created by the two general factor vectors. Individual differences in aural comprehension anticipated by several years changes in rank on the general factor as defined by standard tests.

Articles pertaining to the cross-lagged panel correlational technique, a method for selecting among causal interpretations of correlational data, are reviewed. Underlying assumptions, problems in application, and extent of application are discussed. It is concluded that use of the cross-lagged panel correlational technique makes causal inferences more plausible but the technique should not be viewed as a substitute for experimentation.

The cross-lagged correlation technique (CLC) for assessing causality from passive observational data has been the subject of much recent criticism. CLC compares cross correlations between variables across time points of measurement and attributes differences in correlations to causal effects. Some of the major areas of criticism have to do with: (a) lack of a no-cause baseline, (b) spurious effects of mediating variables, and (c) obscuring effects of heterogeneous stabilities. The present author attempts to show that while these criticisms are valid, CLC should not be rejected outright as a tool in social science research. CLC has some utility as an exploratory technique. Furthermore, if certain assumptions are specified and these assumptions are correct, valid inferences can be made from CLC. Lastly, some assumptions for CLC are not as stringent as implied by critics and CLC is robust to minor violations of assumptions.

A cross-lagged panel correlation analysis was used to test the Rogerian-derived hypothesis that self-esteem is determined by the extent to which a person has a close current relationship which is seen as being characterized by unconditional positive regard, empathy and congruence. The revised Barrett-Lennard Relationship Inventory and the Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale were given to 35 female and 27 male students on two occasions separated by 15 weeks. This prediction was statistically supported when these facilitative conditions were summed together but not when they were analysed separately. In addition, the cross-lagged comparisons between the facilitative conditions suggested that the perception of empathy preceded that of congruence which in turn preceded that of level of regard.

Program POLAC computes auto- and cross-lag intercorrelation. The program independently computes lagged correlation matrices for any number of treatment conditions (cells) and then computes a pooled within cell lagged intercorrelation matrix based on all cells. Missing observations, as defined by the user, may be excluded from the computations. The user specifies the lag(s) desired. Punched output may be obtained for use as input to multiple regression programs. (Author)

The main purpose of the study was to investigate the cross-lagged relationships between school burnout and subjective well being during one year period and to assess the direction of the relationships between these two phenomena. The results showed a cumulative relationship between school burnout and subjective well being: high burn out seemed to predict subsequent low subjective well being. Both school burnout and subjective well-being turned out to be reasonable stable during the one year period.

Cross-lagged panel correlations (CLPC) is a technique developed some time ago by Campbell (1963) to assess the relative importance of the variables X and y in a causal analysis by comparing the lagged zero-order correlations rXly2 and rYlX2. Though subjected to withering criticism (Duncan, 1969a, 1972; Heise, 1970; Rogosa, 1979, 1980), the technique has been widely used in psychology and occasionally in sociology (a score of applications are cited in Sims and Wilkerson, 1977 and Rogosa, 1980; and the bibliographies in these sources are by no means complete). More recently, the technique has been proposed as a test for spuriousness. We examine both applications of the method.

Stressful life events were correlated with two separate illness measures among naval submarine school students. The two illness measures were self-reported health symptoms, and illnesses recorded in the subjects' medical files. Life events, self-reported symptoms, and medical record illnesses were separated into two time blocks and subjected to a cross-lagged panel analysis in order to assess the temporal relationships among them. A significant positive relationship was shown between negative life events experienced 7–12 months prior to testing and medical record illnesses experienced 0–6 months prior to testing. A comparable relationship was not found for negative events and self-reported symptoms. The results support the view that negative life events increase susceptibility to actual illness onset. They also question the accuracy of self-report measures of illness.

Blue-collar workers (N = 203) from a large food-processing plant in the south-western U.S. completed measures of perceived stress and leisure-time exercise at an initial test session in addition to a 2-month follow-up session. Mean age of the sample participants equaled 43.61 (SD = 9.79), and 69.5% of the sample were male, 71.4% were Caucasian, and 74.9% were married/cohabitating. Structural equation modeling was employed to examine the cross-lagged relationships between perceived stress and leisure-time exercise at these time points, controlling for gender, marital status, age, and yearly household income. Results indicated that a model with a path from perceptions of Time 1 stress to Time 2 exercise frequency was most parsimonious and provided acceptable model ft, suggesting that perceptions of stress are related to reductions in exercise participation in this population. However, there was little support for a relationship between Time 1 exercise participation and Time 2 perceived stress.

Previous meta-analytic findings have provided ambiguous evidence on job control as a buffering moderator of the adverse impact of job demands on psychological well-being. To disentangle these mixed findings, we examine the moderating effect of job control on the adverse effects of quantitative workload and emotional dissonance as distinct work-related demands on emotional exhaustion over time. Drawing on the job demands-control model, the limited strength model of self-control, and the matching principle we propose that job control can facilitate coping with work-related demands but at the same time may also require employees' self-control. Consequently, we argue that job control buffers the adverse effects of quantitative workload while it reinforces the adverse effects of emotional dissonance, which also necessitates self-control. We examine the proposed relations among employees from an energy supplying company (N = 139) in a cross-lagged panel study with a six-month time lag. Our results demonstrate a mix of causal and reciprocal effects of job characteristics on emotional exhaustion over time. Furthermore, as suggested, our data provides evidence for contrasting moderating effects of job control. That is, job control buffers the adverse effects of quantitative workload while it reinforces the adverse effects of emotional dissonance on emotional exhaustion.

Bullying and substance use among adolescents have been increasingly studied in the field of developmental psychology, but research to date has primarily investigated the cross-sectional relationship and, to a lesser extent, the long-term impact of bullying on substance use. Grounded in the General Theory of Crime, this study focused on the longitudinal reciprocal relationships between bullying and substance use (i.e., smoking and alcohol consumption) during early to mid-adolescence, which is a critical developmental phase. We aimed to investigate the hypothesis of a reinforcing downward spiral at the within-person level. Moreover, we intended to examine gender differences in the expected longitudinal relationships. Our analyses are based on self-report data for bullying and substance use collected from 1,495 adolescents (746 males; M age at T 1 = 12.42, SD = 0.58) at three waves between 2017 and 2019. We applied the random intercept cross-lagged panel model to separate within-person from between-person effects. At the between-person level, the mutual association between bullying and substance use, previously demonstrated in cross-sectional studies, was confirmed. At the within-person level, results provide evidence of a significant age-dependent change in bullying and substance use from 13 to 14 years old, where the significant increase in bullying could be attributed to females but not to males. We also found a gender-independent significant positive effect of bullying at 12 years old on substance use at 13 years, but not vice versa. Thus, the hypothesis of a reinforcing downward spiral, shown by significant positive reciprocal effects, did not find support. According to the General Theory of Crime, our findings underline that bullying can be considered a context-related factor inasmuch as it pushes adolescents to smoke and drink, which are both expressions of low levels of self-control, which need to be considered in intervention programs to effectively prevent unhealthy and risky behaviors in adolescence.

Cross-lagged panel models have been commonly applied to investigate the dynamic interplay of variables. In such discrete-time models, the size of the cross-lagged effects depends on the length of t...

The influence of how students appraise ‘fear appeals’, which are persuasive messages given by teachers prior to a high-stakes test, on student engagement, has not previously been tested using a robust methodological and analytical design that controls for concurrent relationships between the variables and stability over time. The present study addressed these limitations using a cross-lagged panel design to probe causal relationships between the appraisal of fear appeals as a threat or a challenge and student engagement. Fear appeal appraisal and four components of student engagement were measured over two waves, four months apart, in a sample of 1,991 Year 10 and 11 students. After controlling for unlagged and auto-lagged correlations, as well as gender and year group, the model fit the data well and several of the cross-lagged paths emerged as statistically significant. Regarding our main focus, a threat appraisal at Time 1 predicted both emotional engagement (negatively) and emotional disaffection (positively) at Time 2, and a challenge appraisal at Time 1 was a negative predictor of behavioural disaffection at Time 2. Concerning the cross-lagged paths between engagement components, Time 1 behavioural disaffection negatively predicted Time 2 behavioural engagement, and Time 1 affective engagement negatively predicted Time 2 affective disaffection. There was also a statistically significant negative effect of Time 1 emotional engagement on Time 2 threat appraisal. These findings suggest that there may be causal effects of fear appeal appraisals on behavioural and emotional disaffection, but that the relationship between a threat appraisal and emotional engagement may be reciprocal.

This study reports relationships between general academic self-concept and achievement in grade 3 and grade 5. Gender-specific effects were investigated using a longitudinal, two-cycle, 3-year autoregressive cross-lagged panel design in a large, representative sample of Polish primary school pupils (N = 4226). Analysis revealed (a) reciprocal relations between general academic self-concept and achievement over time but the influence of prior achievement on self-concept was stronger; (b) on average, levels of both constructs declined over time; (c) gender differences were not observed in longitudinal relations (i.e. cross-lagged, autoregressive and intra-wave correlations); (d) girls demonstrated higher mean levels of academic achievement at both grades; and (e) average level of general academic self-concept was not gender differentiated in grade 3 but decreased more for girls. These results are discussed in the light of the theoretical and practical implications.

Background Research has highlighted a series of persistent deficits in cognitive ability in preterm low-birth-weight children. Language and attention problems are among these deficits, although the nature of the relation between attention and language in early development is not well known. This study represents a preliminary attempt to shed light on the relations between attention problems and language development in preterm low-birth-weight children. Methods The aim of this study was to analyse reciprocal influences between language and attention problems from 18 to 36 months. We used maternal reports on attention problems and language ability referring to a sample of 1288 premature low-birth-weight infants, collected as part of the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). A sample of children born full-term was used as the control group (N = 37010). Cross-lagged panel analyses were carried out to study reciprocal influences between attention problems and language. Results Language ability at 18 months did not significantly predict attention problems at 36 months, adjusting for attention problems at 18 months. Attention problems at 18 months significantly predicted changes in language ability from 18 to 36 months, pointing to a precursor role of attention in relation to language in children born preterm. Gender, age corrected for prematurity, and mother's education emerged as important covariates. Conclusions Preliminary evidence was found for a precursor role of early attention problems in relation to language in prematurity. This finding can contribute to a better understanding of the developmental pathways of attention and language and lead to better management of unfavourable outcomes associated with co-morbid attention and language difficulties.

The current literature suggests mixed findings regarding the relationship between visual spatial skill and Chinese reading ability. In this longitudinal study, 106 kindergarteners in Hong Kong were tested on visual spatial skill and Chinese character reading ability in their first, second, and third years of kindergarten (K1, K2, and K3) with 12-month intervals between the three testing points. Cross-lagged path analysis showed a bidirectional relationship between visual spatial skill and Chinese character reading ability from K1 to K2. Children's visual spatial skill in K1 predicted their reading ability in K2 (B = 0.35, SE = 0.17, p

The relationship between perceived health and exercise was examined by cross-lagged panel technique with data from a normal sample of 27 men and 25 women. The results support the hypothesis that previous perceived health can predict exercise.

Cross-lagged correlation analysis was employed to test the hypothesis that attributions for symptoms and life-events would exercise a causal influence on the recovery of depressed patients. Patients rated their symptoms and their three most upsetting recent life-events on the dimensions of internality, stability, globality and uncontrollability. These ratings were significantly more global and uncontrollable than those of controls. Among female depressed patients the dimensions of stability and uncontrollability appeared in addition to play a causal role in determining level of depression six weeks later.

Campbell's cross-lagged correlation technique (Campbell & Stanley, 1963) has recently been discovered to offer competing interpretations (Rozelle & Campbell, 1969; Yee & Gage, 1968a, 1968b). Specifically, the technique in itself does not discriminate between congruent effects of one of the two variables involved and incongruent effects of the other. As Rozelle and Campbell (1969) note, "This greater equivocality must be accepted as a definite reduction over previous estimates of the utility of the method [p. 76|." Yee and Gage (1968a, 1968b) proposed a method to identify congruent and incongruent changes, which is essentially an extension of Campbell's method of analysis. The idea is to identify congruent changes with increases and incongruent changes with decreases in synchronous correlations. The causal direction is then inferred as in Campbell's method. However, it would seem that this could not be unconditionally true, depending as it must be on converging and diverging changes in the variables themselves. Moreover, as Duncan (1969) recently has pointed out, causal inferences will always be underdetermined by 2W2V data. However, by a simple and reasonable assumption and a modification of the operational procedures, a possible solution for identifying congruent and incongruent causal relationships might be found. The assumption is that the effects of a causal state or event decrease (vanish, dissipate) over time. In fact, this is a common

A number of studies have employed simple correlational statistics as a basis for inferring causality. Examples are tests of expectancy theories regarding motivation and performance (Ferris [1977] and Jiambalvo [1979]), of the relationship between budget characteristics like participation, feedback, style of evaluation, performance, and job involvement (Kenis [1979], Collins [1978], Milani [1975], and Otley [1978]), and of the effects of such psychological dimensions as personality, decision style, and risk-taking propensity on decision accuracy, confidence, and flexibility (Weber [1978] and Lucas [1975]). Simple correlations are often employed because many variables of interest are difficult to manipulate experimentally. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the cross-lagged technique which can be used to investigate causal relations without experimental manipulation. We first explain the type of analysis on which the crosslagged approach is based, followed by the technique's underlying as