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Medium-term (i.e. pre-2015) demand for credits from the EU ETS and secondary sources of demand appears to be limited to 1.6 billion tCO2e. The supply of Kyoto credits is relatively predictable, and will cover demand between now and 2013-2014 according to our base-case scenario. Our view is that the demand-supply equilibrium will lead to a decorrelation between the price of Kyoto credits and the EUA price, and may lead to a price for Kyoto credits that is very low, or almost nil. Unless CER and ERU demand-side policies are modified, we do not foresee any rebound in CER and ERU prices beyond the current year.

On March 12th 2012, after two years of consultations and reviews, the European Commission published a decision proposal regarding the inclusion of the land use and forestry sector in European climate policy. The aim of this proposal is to impose accounting rules that are consistent with the decisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and to harmonise them between Member States. Meanwhile, the issue of economic incentives aimed at guaranteeing the sector’s contribution to climate mitigation is postponed until a later date.

Working Paper SMART - LERECO N°13-04 13-04; Agricultural land fragmentation is widespread around the world and may affect farmers’ decisions and therefore have an impact on the performance of farms, in either a negative or a positive way. We investigated this impact for the western region of Brittany, France, in 2007. To do so, we regressed a set of performance indicators on a set of fragmentation descriptors. The performance indicators (production costs, yields, revenue, profitability, technical and scale efficiency) were calculated at the farm level using Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data, while the fragmentation descriptors were calculated at the municipality level using data from the cartographic field pattern registry (RPG). The various fragmentation descriptors enabled not only the traditional number and average size of plots, but also their scattering in the geographical space, to be taken into account. Our analysis highlights the fact that the measures of land fragmentation usually used in the literature do not reveal the whole set of significant relationships with farm performance and that, in particular, measures accounting for distance should be taken into consideration more systematically.

Based on specific projects rather than economy-wide emissions reductions, and driven by the demand from the installations covered by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), Joint Implementation (JI) turned out to be a largely private sector mechanism. Besides attracting private investors in GHG abatement projects, JI creates an opportunity for countries to exploit the arbitrage price spread between different carbon offsets: Emission Reduction Units (ERU), the credits issued from JI projects, trade with a premium of up to 50% over Assigned Amount Units (AAU), the country-level carbon allowances. Some countries, like for instance Ukraine, quickly realized the added value of JI and boosted its development, while in others, like Russia, JI lacked political support and efficient frameworks took time to be established. According to the ERU supply forecasting model developed by CDC Climat Research, Annex I countries are expected to generate up to 356 million ERUs for the first Kyoto commitment period. Around 80% of these credits shall originate from Russia and Ukraine, and up to 70 million shall be generated from countries participating in the EU ETS. Within the EU, JI has been used as a “frontier mechanism”: JI projects mostly explored abatement opportunities not covered by the scheme and, as highlighted by the case of nitrous oxide emissions from the production of nitric acid, played an important role in identifying abatement technologies and providing information to extend the scope of the EU ETS. One of the most complex issues related to JI is the practice of additionality. The cases of France and Ukraine demonstrate that the stakes associated with additionality may differ depending on a country’s compliance position. In Ukraine, additionality was not perceived as a significant economic risk due to a large anticipated AAU surplus, which, however, turns it into a threat to the environmental integrity of the mechanism – as is the case for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – unless a stringent additionality screening is performed. In France, on the other hand, additionality was perceived as a threat to the treasury due to the uncertain compliance position of the country. In that case, additionality becomes more a matter of economic efficiency than environmental integrity.

The purpose of this document is to estimate the supply and potential demand asregards Kyoto carbon credits (CER and ERU) up to 2020. Two distinct periods havebeen pinpointed: 2008-2012, the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and2013-2020, the phase when the climate-energy package will be implemented inEurope, and the period for compliance with international commitments agreed inCancún.Demand for Kyoto credits is estimated at between 2.2 and 4.4 billion for the 2008-2020 period. The large spread reflects 1) uncertainty about the size of Europeandemand (EU ETS and Member States), which could rise from 1.3 to 2.2 billioncredits if Europe’s 2020 emissions reduction target were increased from 20% to30%; and 2) uncertainties regarding the use of Kyoto credits by other actors.The estimate of Kyoto credit supply by CDC Climat Research is 1.3 billion betweennow and 2013 (1.1 billion in CER and 0.2 billion in ERU). By 2020, Kyoto projectscould generate up to 4 billion credits.All in all, we estimate that the credit market will be in deficit by 2013 and should bein surplus by 2020, unless there is an increased European commitment, or newsources of demand appear throughout the world.

We draw up a picture of farmland fragmentation in 2007 for France thanks to the use of the cartographic field pattern registry database. The reported indicators quantify the degree of fragmentation in its various dimensions (number, shape, size, distance and scattering of plots) as well as in an overall way. Data also enable to explore the links between fragmentation and structural characteristics of the farms, such as legal status, operator’s age, type of farming or geographical location.; Nous dressons un état des lieux du morcellement des exploitations agricoles françaises à partir d’une analyse des données du Registre Parcellaire Graphique (RPG) pour l’année 2007. Les indicateurs présentés décrivent le morcellement dans ses différentes dimensions (nombre, forme, taille, éloignement et éparpillement des îlots) ainsi que de façon synthétique. Les données du RPG permettent également d’explorer les liens entre morcellement et caractéristiques structurelles des exploitations, comme le statut juridique, l’âge du chef, le type de production ou encore la localisation géographique.

European industrial installations surrendered over 1 billion Kyoto credits (675 million CERs and 383 million ERUs) in Phase II (2008-2012) of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Kyoto credits have always been less expensive than EUAs, initially as a result of asymmetric information, and then due to the fact that credit surrender was capped at around 1,650 MtCO2e at the European level. Lower credit prices enabled installations to reduce their compliance costs. The savings achieved by installations subject to the EU ETS are estimated between €4 billion and €20 billion over the period between 2008 and 2012. The use of CERs and ERUs within the EU ETS grew exponentially. It was also effective from an economic standpoint in several ways: 1. a vast majority of the installations – 70%, which represent 90% of the emissions covered – made use of the option to return credits; 2. the use of credits was primarily limited by the supply: once delivered, credits made their way from the producer's account to the end-customer's account very quickly, on average in seven months; 3. the use of the credits did not depend on whether the installation had an allowance deficit or surplus: even installations that had a surplus, which did not “need” credits for compliance, surrendered them to minimise their compliance costs; 4. the development of market infrastructure played an important role in matching credit buyers and sellers by ensuring that a price emerged, and improving the transparency of information. Demand from the EU ETS dried up as companies had already contracted all the credits allowed by their maximum surrender limit since mid-2012. This limit was set in 2004 and was only marginally increased in 2009 via the review of the EU ETS Directive for Phase III: the limit rose from around 1,400 MtCO2e over the period 2008 - 2012 to an authorised amount of 1,650 MtCO2e for the period 2008 to 2020, i.e. an additional amount of only 250 million over the eight years between 2013 and 2020. The bubble burst in the second half of 2012 after the market became convinced that European demand had dried up; this conviction was reinforced by the flooding of Russian and Ukrainian ERUs as both States boosted issuance of ERUs before the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The thousands of industrial companies buying CERs and ERUs were therefore replaced by just a few States, which made the international credit market much less liquid. In fact, the qualitative restrictions introduced in phase 3 of the EU ETS, which were supposed to rebalance the market, became obsolete before they even entered into effect on the 1st of May 2013. On this point, we note that the European Union is currently the only region in the world that does not obligate its operators to use a minimum amount of domestic offsets.

Working Paper INRA-ESR Rennes N°07-01; The main objective of this article is to examine econometric estimates of price elasticities of food trade functions. We investigate the relevance of the prominent gravity approach. This approach is based on the assumptions of symmetric, monotone, homothetic, Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) preferences. We test all these assumptions using intra-European trade in cheese. In general, the assumptions made on preferences by the gravity approach are not supported by our dataset. The bias induced in the estimated price elasticities is ambiguous.

Working Paper SMART-LERECO N°14-05; This article aims at understanding the internationalization of French agri-food cooperatives through two components: i) the presence of subsidiaries of cooperatives abroad and; ii) export of either the cooperatives or their affiliate(s). Merging the AMADEUS dataset on French agri-food cooperatives, containing information on the cooperative network, with customs data, providing data on French agri-food exports, allows us to provide some answers. The main result shows that the export activities of the cooperatives and those of its subsidiaries are complementary.; Cet article appréhende l’internationalisation des coopératives agricoles françaises par l’analyse de : i) la présence de filiales de la coopérative à l’étranger et ; ii) l’exportation des coopératives ou de leur(s) filiale(s). Nous combinons les données AMADEUS, qui nous permettent de reconstruire le réseau de filiales des coopératives agricoles françaises, aux données des douanes, rassemblant les informations concernant les exportations françaises de produits agricoles et agroalimentaires. Les principaux résultats montrent que les activités d’exportation de la coopérative et celles de ses filiales sont complémentaires.

Date du contrat: 14/12/2006; Within the international convention of Geneva on long distance transboundary air pollution, the negotiation for the reduction of pollutants emission is impactoriented. The general approach to quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to air pollutants is based on the concept of critical loads. To enhance the assessment of critical loads for eutrophying nitrogen at the national scale, there is a need of a detailed vegetation map with information on plant species composition. Such a map would enable: - to take into account impacts of air pollutants, particularly nitrogen, on biodiversity, as suggested by the most recent xi works of the convention, - to enhance the description of the spatial modelling units used at the national scale for critical load modelling, - to better characterise throughfall atmospheric deposition and nitrogen export by the biomass. In September 2006, Anne Probst, in charge of the modelling and the mapping of critical loads for France, applied to the French environmental agency (Ademe) for funds in order to realise a digital geographic database of the vegetation of France (BDGveg). The purposes of this database are the mapping of the French vegetation units and the description of their species composition. The BDGveg was based mainly based on the digitising of the vegetationmap of the CNRS. Thismap is composed of the 64 paper maps produced by the French centre for scientific research (CNRS) between 1947 and 1991. The objective of the final report is to present: – the material and the methods used to produce the BDGveg, – the characteristics of the produced items, – the perspectives for future works. All the items planed in the application for funds have beenmade: – a coherent nation wide hierarchical legend based on the vegetation map of the CNRS and validated by experts; – a raster coverage representing the vegetation at the time of the survey (1/200 000) resulting from the scan of the paper maps; – a vector coverage representing the potential vegetation at 1/1 250 000; this coverage has been checked by comparison with floristic databases (IFN and EcoPlant-Sophy); – some methodological lookouts for the development of biodiversity-targeted critical load models. Additional items have been produced during the course of this project: – a database compiling the information on the authors of the vegetation map of the CNRS; – extra layers at raster (sol nutrient status, soil use, agriculture, rainfall, agricultural risks) and vector format (secondary tree species, distribution of Mediterranean species, drainage levels); – the first draft version of a coverage representing the vegetation at the year 2000 with themethodology to realise a final version. xii; Dans le cadre de la convention internationale de Genève sur la pollution atmosphérique transfrontalière à longue distance, les réductions des émissions de polluants sont négociées en prenant en considération les impacts générés par ces contaminants. Plus particulièrement, l’approche retenue pour quantifier la sensibilité des écosystèmes est basée sur le concept de charge critique. Pour améliorer la détermination des charges critiques en azote eutrophisant pour le territoire national, il est aujourd’hui nécessaire de disposer d’une carte numérique de la France indiquant précisément la composition de la couverture végétale. En effet, un tel document, qui fait actuellement défaut, permettra notamment : – d’intégrer l’effet des pollutions atmosphériques, notamment azotées, sur la biodiversité comme recommandé par les récents travaux de la convention de Genève ; – d’améliorer la définition des unités écosystémiques sur lesquelles est basée la modélisation spatiale des charges critiques ; – de mieux modéliser les dépôts de polluants atmosphériques sous couvert et l’exportation d’azote par la biomasse. En septembre 2006, une demande de financement, portée par Anne PROBST responsable de la modélisation et de la cartographie des charges critiques en France, a été déposée auprès de l’Ademe pour constituer une Base de Données Géographiques de la VÉGétation de la France (BDGveg). L’objet de cette base est la cartographie des unités de végétation présentes ainsi que la description de leur composition floristique. La réalisation de la BDGveg s’appuie principalement sur la numérisation des 64 feuilles éditées par le CNRS entre 1947 et 1991 et qui constitue la carte de végétation du CNRS. L’objectif de ce rapport final est de présenter l’ensemble des travaux réalisés depuis janvier 2006, date du démarrage du projet. Dans le détail, il expose : – les sources et les méthodologies employées pour réaliser la BDGveg, – les caractéristiques des délivrables produits, – les perspectives de travail et de valorisation. L’ensemble des délivrables planifiés dans la demande de financement ont été réalisés : – une typologie hiérarchique de la végétation de la France basée sur la carte de végétation du CNRS et validée par expertise ; – une couverture géographique matricielle de la végétation au moment de l’établissement de la carte de végétation du CNRS au 1/200 000 (scan des cartes de la végétation) ; – une couverture géographique vectorielle de la végétation potentielle de la France à 1/1 250 000 vérifiée à l’aide des bases de données floristiques EcoPlant- Sophy et IFN ; – des perspectives méthodologiques pour le développement des modèles de charges critiques en azote eutrophisant qui prennent en compte l’impact sur la biodiversité végétale. Par ailleurs, quelques délivrables supplémentaires ont également été produits dans le cadre de ce projet : – une base de données des auteurs et des réalisateurs de la carte de végétation du CNRS; – des couvertures géographiques secondaires matricielles (édaphologie, utilisation du sol, agriculture, pluviométrie, adversité agricole) et vectorielles (essences forestières secondaires, aire des espèces méditerranéennes, niveau de drainage) ; – une première version intermédiaire d’une couverture « Végétation—État 2000 » avec la mise au point d’une procédure de généralisation pour produire une couverture finalisée. L’ensemble des couvertures géographiques numériques, ainsi que la base de données « typologie », ont été regroupées dans la BDGveg.

According to the latest IEA World Energy Outlook, energy efficiency is a “key option” in transition to a low-carbon economy. A decade of experience with the CDM and JI demonstrates that carbon finance can be used as an effective tool to unlock private investments in energy efficiency. Capital investments in offset projects may significantly exceed the expected carbon revenues resulting in an average weighted leverage ratio of 4:1 and 9:1 for the CDM and JI respectively, which is comparable to other international financial instruments. So far carbon finance has been used mostly for large-scale industrial energy efficiency projects in advanced developing countries and economies in transition, although it is increasingly suited to tap into scattered household energy efficiency projects.

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has had a very small climate component since 1992. The recent inclusion of green payments and the climate risk management tools proposed for the CAP for the period beyond 2013 illustrate the European Commission’s willingness to expand this climate component. Furthermore, there is little mention of the agricultural sector in the tools rolled out by the European climate policy, particularly those derived from the 2009 “Climate & Energy” Package. Therefore, even if this autumn’s parliamentary debate results in the reform proposals being diluted, the post-2013 CAP could nevertheless become a principal tool for a common EU climate policy in the agricultural sector.