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The first expected symptoms of a climate change-generated biodiversity crisis are range contractions and extinctions at lower elevational and latitudinal limits to species distributions. However, whilst range expansions at high elevations and latitudes have been widely documented, there has been surprisingly little evidence for contractions at warm margins. We show that lower elevational limits for 16 butterfly species in central Spain have risen on average by 212 m (± SE 60) in 30 years, accompanying a 1.3 °C rise (equivalent to c. 225 m) in mean annual temperature. These elevational shifts signify an average reduction in habitable area by one-third, with losses of 50–80% projected for the coming century, given maintenance of the species thermal associations. The results suggest that many species have already suffered climate-mediated habitat losses that may threaten their long-term chances of survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species–climate ‘envelope’ models to forecast risks of species extinctions under climate change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model projections and there remains a need to test the accuracy of models and to reduce uncertainties. Testing of models has been limited by a lack of data against which projections of future ranges can be tested. Here we provide a first test of the predictive accuracy of such models using observed species’ range shifts and climate change in two periods of the recent past. Location Britain. Methods Observed range shifts for 116 breeding bird species in Britain between 1967 and 1972 ( t1) and 1987–91 ( t2) are used. We project range shifts between t1 and t2 for each species based on observed climate using 16 alternative models (4 methods × 2 data parameterizations × 2 rules to transform probabilities of occurrence into presence and absence records). Results Modelling results were extremely variable, with projected range shifts varying both in magnitude and in direction from observed changes and from each other. However, using approaches that explore the central tendency (consensus) of model projections, we were able to improve agreement between projected and observed shifts significantly. Conclusions Our results provide the first empirical evidence of the value of species–climate ‘envelope’ models under climate change and demonstrate reduction in uncertainty and improvement in accuracy through selection of the most consensual projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The realms of rare species conservation and metapopulation biology theory are often interrelated, and hence share several basic challenges. Two of the most important are the critical and frequently difficult tasks of distinguishing a priori between habitat and nonhabitat, and then delimiting suitable habitat patches in a study area. We combined classification tree analysis, a subset of classification and regression tree (CART) modeling, with digital data layers of environmental variables in a geographic information system (GIS) to predict suitable habitat and potential new population occurrences for turkeybeard (Xerophyllum asphodeloides), a rare liliaceous understory herb associated with southern Appalachian pine-oak (Pinus-Quercus) forests, in northwestern Virginia. Sample values from eight environmental data layers and population survey data were used in the modeling process to produce a cross-validated classification tree that predicted suitable habitat in the study area. Elevation, slope, forest type, and fire frequency were the four main explanatory variables in the model. Approximately 4%of the study area was classified into five suitable habitat classes, with a misclassification error rate of 4.74%. The final 13-leaf tree correctly classified 74% of the known presence areas and 90% of the known absence areas, and ground-truthing surveys resulted in the discovery of eight new occupied habitat patches. Results of this study are important for conservation and management of X. asphodeloides, as well as for the applicability of the habitat modeling techniques to enhancing the study of metapopulations and disturbance regimes in Appalachian forests. In addition, they confirm the potential and value of CART and GIS-based modeling approaches to species distribution problems. Our model was successful at defining suitable habitat and discovering new populations of a rare species at the landscape scale. Similar application to other rare species could prove very useful for addressing these and other ecological and conservation issues, such as planning transplantation or reintroduction experiments, identifying meta-population fragmentation thresholds, and formulating conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An absence of genetic variance in traits under selection is perhaps the oldest explanation for a limit to evolutionary change, but has also been the most easily dismissed. We review a range of theoretical and empirical results covering single traits to more complex multivariate systems, and show that an absence of genetic variance may be more common than is currently appreciated. From a single-trait perspective, we highlight that it is becoming clear that some trait types do not display significant levels of genetic variation, and we raise the possibility that species with restricted ranges may differ qualitatively from more widespread species in levels of genetic variance in ecologically important traits. A common misconception in many life-history studies is that a lack of genetic variance in single traits, and genetic constraints as a consequence of bivariate genetic correlations, are different causes of selection limits. We detail how interpretations of bivariate patterns are unlikely to demonstrate genetic limits to selection in many cases. We advocate a multivariate definition of genetic constraints that emphasizes the presence (or otherwise) of genetic variance in the multivariate direction of selection. For multitrait systems, recent results using longer term studies of organisms, in which more is understood concerning what traits may be under selection, have indicated that selection may exhaust genetic variance, resulting in a limit to the selection response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of habitat selection behaviour in the assembly of natural communities is an increasingly important theme in ecology. At the same time, ecologists and conservation biologists are keenly interested in scale and how processes at scales from local to regional interact to determine species distributions and patterns of biodiversity. How important is habitat selection in generating observed patterns of distribution and diversity at multiple spatial scales? In theory, habitat selection in response to interacting species can generate both positive and negative covariances among species distributions and create the potential to link processes of community assembly across multiple scales. Here I demonstrate that habitat selection by treefrogs in response to the distribution of fish predators functions at both the regional scale among localities and the local scale among patches within localities, implicating habitat selection as a critical link between local communities and the regional dynamics of metacommunities in complex landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate maps of species distributions are essential tools for wildlife research and conservation. Unfortunately, biologists often are forced to rely on maps derived from observed occurrences recorded opportunistically during observation periods of variable length. Spurious inferences are likely to result because such maps are profoundly affected by the duration and intensity of observation and by methods used to delineate distributions, especially when detection is uncertain. We conducted a systematic survey of swift fox ( Vulpes velox) distribution in western Kansas, USA, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) image restoration to rectify these problems. During 1997-1999, we searched 355 townships (ca. 93 km²) 1-3 times each for an average cost of $7,315 per year and achieved a detection rate (probability of detecting swift foxes, if present, during a single search) of 8 = 0.69 (95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = [0.60, 0.77]). Our analysis produced an estimate of the underlying distribution, rather than a map of observed occurrences, that reflected the uncertainty associated with estimates of model parameters. To evaluate our results, we analyzed simulated data with similar properties. Results of our simulations suggest negligible bias and good precision when probabilities of detection on ⩾1 survey occasions (cumulative probabilities of detection) exceed 0.65. Although the use of MCMC image restoration has been limited by theoretical and computational complexities, alternatives do not possess the same advantages. Image models accommodate uncertain detection, do not require spatially independent data or a census of map units, and can be used to estimate species distributions directly from observations without relying on habitat covariates or parameters that must be estimated subjectively. These features facilitate economical surveys of large regions, the detection of temporal trends in distribution, and assessments of landscape-level relations between species and habitats. Requirements for the use of MCMC image restoration include study areas that can be partitioned into regular grids of mapping units, spatially contagious species distributions, reliable methods for identifying target species, and cumulative probabilities of detection ⩾0.65. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human enterprise is flooding Earth's ecosystems with exotic species. Human population size is often correlated with species introductions, whereas more proximate mechanisms, such as economic activities, are frequently overlooked. Here we present a hypothesis that links ecology and economics to provide a causal framework for the distribution of exotic plants in the United States. We test two competing hypotheses (the population-only and population-economic models) using a national data set of exotic plants, employing a statistical framework to simultaneously model direct and indirect effects of human population and ecological and economic variables. The population-only model included direct effects of human population and ecological factors as predictors of exotics. ln contrast the population-economic model included the direct effects of economic and ecological factors and the indirect effects of human population as predictors of exotics. The explicit addition of economic activity in the population-economic model provided a better explanation for the distribution of exotics than did the population-only model. The population-economic model explained 75% of the variation in the number of exotic plants in the 50 states and provided a good description of the observed number of exotic plants in the Canadian provinces and in other nations in 85% of the cases. A specific economic activity, real estate gross state product had the strongest positive effect on the number of exotics. The strong influence of economics on exotics demonstrates that economics matter for resolving the exotic-species problem because the underlying causes, and some of the solutions, may lie in human-economic behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The physiological requirements and tolerances of a species partially determine both its habitat preferences within a community and its broader geographic range. Therefore, we predicted that local ecology should be correlated with geographic distribution. We tested for a correlation between local ecology and range size, and we attempted to account for this correlation by the climate of the range. Location Bishop Creek Watershed, on the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada, California. Methods We recorded all plant species growing in each of 263 plots in the montane to alpine zones of the watershed. The local habitat preferences of 282 species were described in terms of wetness, elevation, soil, and amount of shade. The size and centre of the geographic range for each species were determined from regional floras. Results Wetness preference within the watershed was significantly correlated with range size. Specifically, plants of wet sites had larger ranges that extend to the north, whereas plants of dry sites tended to have smaller ranges centred to the east. The correlation between local wetness preference and range size was entirely explained by the location of the range centre of the species. Main conclusions A possible reason for the large ranges of mesophilic plants in our study area is that mesic habitats are continuous throughout the western Cordillera, while dry alpine habitats are isolated by valleys to the east. The correspondence between local ecology and geographic distributions implies evolutionary stasis in the niches of these plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To determine the composition and biogeographical origins of the native and naturalized flora of braided shingle riverbeds in New Zealand and whether the proportion of naturalized species is greater than in similar habitats elsewhere in the world. To test whether regional species pools, landscape matrix configuration, and local riverbed environment are all equally important in determining community structure in these systems. The braided reaches of four catchments on each of the eastern and western sides of North Island and South Island, New Zealand. Plotless records of all native and naturalized seed plant and fern species on disturbed mobile surfaces were made over the length of four rivers. Altitude, climate variables, riverbed attributes, and surrounding land-cover from maps were recorded for each site. For all species, the taxonomy, life form, origin and history, and presence within the province through which the rivers flowed, was obtained from published floras. Direct and indirect ordination and variance partitioning were employed to examine how native and naturalized species composition varies among and within rivers, and the degree to which this variation reflects climate, characteristic of riverbeds, and the surrounding land-cover. Regression was used to determine how much introduction date and native geographical range influence the frequency of naturalized species. The total riverbed flora of 289 species comprises 40% native species and 60% naturalized species, both dominated by Asteraceae and Poaceae. The relative contributions of other plant families differ, and the two groups comprise different life-form spectra. Native species occur across fewer rivers (mean 1.6 rivers) than naturalized species (mean 2.1 rivers). Species common in at least one river system tend to be widespread, occurring in at least three rivers. The rivers differ in their floras, with distinctions between North Island and South Island, and eastern and western rivers. The South Island rivers have more native species and a higher proportion of their regional native species pools than North Island rivers, whereas they have a lower proportion of their naturalized species pools. Introduction date and native geographical range are correlated with frequency of individual naturalized species. Geographical position and climate, riverbed variables of substrate size and seepage presence, and the type of adjacent land-cover, differ between rivers and are significantly related to species composition. Land-cover variables alone account for 46% of the explained variation in species composition, environmental variables alone 32% and components of the environment and land-cover that co-vary, 22%. New Zealand shingle riverbeds are among the riparian communities in the world most invaded by naturalized species but comparisons are difficult because studies of similar riverbeds are rare. New Zealand riverbeds are dominated by short-lived terrestrial species from Eurasia. Native species are most frequent in South Island rivers draining extensive high mountains, and their abundances are determined to a greater extent by riverbed processes than are those of the naturalized species, which are more abundant when the surrounding landscape is modified. The distribution of the naturalized flora is not yet at equilibrium with the environment. Each river has a distinctive flora determined by ambient environmental factors, aspects of the riverbed environment itself, adjacent land-cover reflecting the presence of native vegetation, the intensity of human modification or use, and invasion history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling potential species distributions has become a powerful tool for botanists in recent years. Using herbarium specimen data and GIS desktop software, we modelled the potential distribution of 36 endemic and 47 non-endemic species of Anthuriurn (Araceae) in Ecuador based on mean annual temperature and humidity. Our results indicate the most important region for endemics in western Ecuador lies between the Andes and Coastal mountain ranges between 200 and 700 m, while for eastern Ecuador a belt of potential high diversity occurs directly along the foothills of the Andes under 1000 m. A very interesting result of this study highlights a site of predicted high species diversity at the borders of Guyas, Cañar, Bolivar, and Chimborazo, as well as sites within the Cordillera del Condor along the border with Peru. Potential richness for non-endemic Anthuriurn species was similar to that of endemics with the inclusion of a large area of Amazonian lowlands in the east of the country. Over 40% of the protected areas in Ecuador occur in the eastern Amazonian lowlands, an area of low diversity for Anthuriurn endemics. Overall, for areas with potential high concentrations of endemic species identified in this study, only 3.1% are within Ecuador's protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantification of species along environmental gradients has long been the subject of study regarding natural plant communities and, more recently, ecosystems disturbed by anthropogenic emissions of eutrophying and acidifying substances. We studied 527 sites in southern Swedish deciduous forests divided into two regions, with mean nitrogen depositions of 17 and 9 kg ha-1 y-1. The higher deposition in the more exposed region has resulted in higher nitrogen mineralisation and nitrification rates. The objective was to identify nitrogen indicators, which we defined as species with a skewed distribution in relation to the net potential nitrogen mineralisation in the soil. Soil pH was introduced as a co-variable as it may relate to other factors limiting plant growth and survival in these ecosystems. We tested the distribution of the net potential mineralised ammonium (minNH4+), nitrate (minNO3-), total inorganic nitrogen (minNH4++NO3-) and the ratio of nitrification (percentage of minNH4++NO3- as nitrate; %minNO3-) in 77 herbs. The number of species that showed a skewed distribution differed for the nitrogen variables studied in the following order: %minNO3- > minNO3- > minNH4+≫ minNH4++NO3-. As many as 21 species in region 1 and 17 species in region 2 were selected as indicators for one or several of the nitrogen variables. A fern, five graminoids and seven forbs were found to be indicators of low %minNO3- and two ferns, two grasses and 13 forbs were found to be indicators of high %minNO3-. We correlated the Ellenberg N indicator values with species with and without skewed distributions, and found that the former group was best related to the N values. As with most indicators, the species identified here are probably best used in combination with other measures to demonstrate the effects of nitrogen deposition on vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the influence of land cover and climate on species distributions across Europe. To quantify the importance of land cover to describe and predict species distributions after using climate as the main driver. The study area is Europe. (1) A multivariate analysis was applied to describe land-cover distribution across Europe and assess if the land cover is determined by climate at large spatial scales. (2) To evaluate the importance of land cover to predict species distributions, we implemented a spatially explicit iterative procedure to predict species distributions of plants (2603 species), mammals (186 species), breeding birds (440 species), amphibian and reptiles (143 species). First, we ran bioclimatic models using stepwise generalized additive models using bioclimatic variables. Secondly, we carried out a regression of land cover (LC) variables against residuals from the bioclimatic models to select the most relevant LC variables. Finally, we produced mixed models including climatic variables and those LC variables selected as decreasing the residual of bioclimatic models. Then we compared the explanatory and predictive power of the pure bioclimatic against the mixed model. (1) At the European coarse resolution, land cover is mainly driven by climate. Two bioclimatic axes representing a gradient of temperature and a gradient of precipitation explained most variation of land-cover distribution. (2) The inclusion of land cover improved significantly the explanatory power of bioclimatic models and the most relevant variables across groups were those not explained or poorly explained by climate. However, the predictive power of bioclimatic model was not improved by the inclusion of LC variables in the iterative model selection process. Climate is the major driver of both species and land-cover distributions over Europe. Yet, LC variables that are not explained or weakly associated with climate (inland water, sea or arable land) are interesting to describe particular mammal, bird and tree distributions. However, the addition of LC variables to pure bioclimatic models does not improve their predictive accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two approaches to formulating the reserve site selection problem when species occurrence data is probabilistic were solved for terrestrial vertebrates in a small set of potential reserve sites in Oregon. The expected coverage approach, which maximizes the sum of the occurrence probabilities, yielded solutions that covered more species on average in Monte Carlo simulations than the threshold approach, which maximizes the number of species for which the occurrence probability exceeds some threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Aim Species generally become rarer and more patchily distributed as the margins of their ranges are approached. We predicted that in such marginal sites, tree species would tend to occur where some key environmental factors are at particularly favourable levels, compensating in part for the low overall suitability of marginal sites. Location The article considers the spatial distributions of trees in Southeast Alaska (the Alaskan ‘panhandle’). Methods We quantified range marginality using spatial distributions of eight tree species across more than one thousand surveyed sites in Southeast Alaska. For each species we derived a site core/margin index using a three-dimensional trend surface generated from logistic regression on site coordinates. For each species, the relationships between the environmental factors slope, aspect and site marginality were then compared for occupied and unoccupied sets of sites. Results We found that site slope is important for more Alaskan tree species than aspect. Three out of eight had a significant core/margin by occupied/unoccupied interaction, tending to be present in significantly shallower-sloped (more favourable) sites in the marginal areas than the simple core/margin trend predicted. For site aspect, one species had a significant interaction, selecting potentially more favourable northerly aspects in marginal areas. A finer-scale analysis based on the same data came to the same overall conclusions. Conclusions There is evidence that several tree species in Alaska tend to occur in especially favourable sites in marginal areas. In these marginal areas, these species amplify habitat preferences shown in core areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract 1. The 13C/12C discrimination (Δ) by a series of co-occurring and replacement Eucalyptus species was measured across an eightfold decrease in rainfall. As Δ is a measure of the stomatal limitation on photosynthesis, it should provide a subcontinental scale measure of water-limited plant physiological performance. 2. Leaf Δ of five of 13 species decreased with decreasing rainfall, seven exhibited no trend, and one increased. Wood Δ decreased in eight species, showed no trend in four, and increased in one species. 3. Species replacements were marked by a shift in Δ reflecting greater stomatal limitation on carbon assimilation. 4. Wood Δ was less variable than leaf Δ. 5. There was a non-linear response of the multispecies average leaf and wood Δ to decreasing total annual rainfall. This response reflected the spatial pattern of the sensitivities of Δ to decreasing rainfall of the individual species. It was not the result of a proposed emergent behaviour where the trend in the multispecies average differed from that of the individual species. 6. Patterns of Δ across the distributions of species (reflecting increasing stomatal limitation on assimilation) did not provide a simple measure of the physiological limits of the distribution of eucalypts in north-western Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species, where successful, can devastate native communities. We studied the dynamics of the invasive Argentine ant, Linepithema humile, for 7 years in Jasper Ridge, a biological preserve in northern California. We monitored the distributions at the hectare scale of native ant taxa and L. humile in the spring and fall from 1993 to 1999. We also studied the invasion dynamics at a finer resolution by searching for ants in 1-m2 plots. Our results are similar at both scales. The distributions of several native species are not random with regard to L. humile; the distributions of several epigeic species with similar habitat affinities overlap much less frequently than expected with the distribution of L. humile. We found that season had a significant influence on the distributions of L. humile and several native taxa. Over the 7-year period, L. humile has increased its range size in Jasper Ridge largely at the expense of native taxa, but there is seasonal and yearly variation in this rate of increase. Studies of invasions in progress which sample across seasons and years may help to predict the spread and effects of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both abiotic and biotic drivers influence species distributions. Abiotic drivers such as climate have received considerable attention, even though biotic drivers such as hybridization often interact with abiotic drivers. We sought to explore the (1) costs of co-occurrence for ecologically similar species that hybridize and (2) associations between ecological factors and condition to understand how abiotic and biotic factors influence species distributions. For two closely related and ecologically similar songbirds, black-capped and mountain chickadees, we characterized body condition, as a proxy for fitness, using a 1358-individual range-wide dataset. We compared body condition in sympatry and allopatry with several abiotic and biotic factors using species-specific generalized linear mixed models. We generated genomic data for a subset of 217 individuals to determine the extent of hybridization-driven admixture in our dataset. Within this data subset, we found that ~11% of the chickadees had hybrid ancestry, and all hybrid individuals had typical black-capped chickadee plumage. In the full dataset, we found that birds of both species, independent of demographic and abiotic factors, had significantly lower body condition when occurring in sympatry than birds in allopatry. This could be driven by either the inclusion of cryptic, likely poor condition, hybrids in our full dataset, competitive interactions in sympatry, or range edge effects. We are currently unable to discriminate between these mechanisms. Our findings have implications for mountain chickadees in particular, which will encounter more black-capped chickadees as black-capped chickadee ranges shift upslope and could lead to local declines in mountain chickadee populations., Competing Interests: The authors of this paper have no conflicts of interest to declare., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The decline of biodiversity from anthropogenic landscape modification is among the most pressing conservation problems worldwide. In North America, long-term population declines have elevated the recovery of the grassland avifauna to among the highest conservationpriorities. Because the vast majority of grasslands of the Great Plains are privately owned, the recovery of these ecosystems and bird populations within them depend on landscape-scale conservation strategies that integrate social, economic, and biodiversity objectives. The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is a voluntary program for private agricultural producers administered by the United States Department of Agriculture that provides financial incentives to take cropland out of production and restore perennial grassland. We investigated spatial patterns of grassland availability and restoration to inform landscape-scale conservation for a comprehensive community of grassland birds in the Great Plains. The research objectives were to (1) determine how apparent habitat loss has affected spatial patterns of grassland bird biodiversity, (2) evaluate the effectiveness of CRP for offsetting the biodiversity declines of grassland birds, and (3) develop spatially explicit predictions to estimate the biodiversity benefit of adding CRP to landscapes impacted by habitat loss. We used the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program to evaluate hypotheses for the effects of habitat loss and restoration on both the occupancy and species richness of grassland specialists within a continuum-modeling framework. We found the odds of community occupancy declined by 37% for every 1 SD decrease in grassland availability [log e (km 2 )] and increased by 20% for every 1 SD increase in CRP land cover [log e (km 2 )]. There was 17% turnover in species composition between intact grasslands and CRP landscapes, suggesting that grasslands restored by CRP retained considerable, but incomplete, representation of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes. Spatially explicit predictions indicated that absolute conservation outcomes were greatest at high latitudes in regions with high biodiversity, whereas the relative outcomes were greater at low latitudes in highly modified landscapes. By evaluating community-wide responses to landscape modification and CRP restoration at bioregional scales, our study fills key information gaps for developing collaborative strategies, and for balancing conservation of avian biodiversity and social well-being in the agricultural production landscapes of the Great Plains., (© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.)

All species inevitably leave genetic traces in their environments, and the resulting environmental DNA (eDNA) reflects the species present in a given habitat. It remains unclear whether eDNA signals can provide quantitative metrics of abundance on which human livelihoods or conservation successes depend. Here, we report the results of a large eDNA ocean survey (spanning 86 000 km 2 to depths of 500 m) to understand the abundance and distribution of Pacific hake ( Merluccius productus ), the target of the largest finfish fishery along the west coast of the USA. We sampled eDNA in parallel with a traditional acoustic-trawl survey to assess the value of eDNA surveys at a scale relevant to fisheries management. Despite local differences, the two methods yield comparable information about the broad-scale spatial distribution and abundance. Furthermore, we find depth and spatial patterns of eDNA closely correspond to acoustic-trawl estimates for hake. We demonstrate the power and efficacy of eDNA sampling for estimating abundance and distribution and move the analysis eDNA data beyond sample-to-sample comparisons to management relevant scales. We posit that eDNA methods are capable of providing general quantitative applications that will prove especially valuable in data- or resource-limited contexts.

Sexual reproduction often declines towards range edges, reducing fitness, dispersal and adaptive potential. For plants, sexual reproduction is frequently limited by inadequate pollination. While case studies show that pollen limitation can limit plant distributions, the extent to which pollination commonly declines towards plant range edges is unknown. Here, we use global databases of pollen-supplementation experiments and plant occurrence data to test whether pollen limitation increases towards plant range edges, using a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis. While there was significant pollen limitation across studies, we found little evidence that pollen limitation increases towards plant range edges. Pollen limitation was not stronger towards the tropics, nor at species' equatorward versus poleward range limits. Meta-analysis results are consistent with results from targeted experiments, in which pollen limitation increased significantly towards only 14% of 14 plant range edges, suggesting that pollination contributes to range limits less often than do other interactions. Together, these results suggest pollination is one of the rich variety of potential ecological factors that can contribute to range limits, rather than a generally important constraint on plant distributions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Robust design of Marine Protected Areas in ocean environments is often challenging due to inadequate knowledge of biodiversity patterns, reflecting difficulties in the prediction of species distributions from sampling data that are often sparse or inadequate. Models that combine species and environmental data, such as Gradient Forests (GF), provide one analytical approach to this problem, efficiently combining available information to produce spatial models of species turnover throughout an area of interest. Spatial estimates of species turnover can then be classified to estimate spatial patterns in species composition; however, the performance of GF-based classifications within a conservation planning context has not previously been evaluated. Here we assess the utility for conservation planning (using the software Zonation) of a GF-based hierarchical classification that summarises spatial patterns in demersal fish composition in the oceans around New Zealand. Progressively more complex Zonation analyses assessed the effects of (i) varying the number of classification groups, (ii) adding information describing species turnover, and (iii) adding information describing spatial variation in demersal fish species richness. The best-performing GF-based conservation ranking used layers describing the distributions of 30 classification groups, demersal fish species turnover between these groups, and species richness. Conservation outcomes from this ranking were only marginally less efficient than those from a more conventional ranking that used 217 individual species distribution layers (7% less efficient). This indicates that GF-based classifications may provide a practical alternative for marine conservation planning. Additional advantages arise from the greater ease with which a single classification layer summarising complex biodiversity patterns can facilitate decision-making in participatory stakeholder processes. [Display omitted] • Gradient Forest-based environmental classifications described spatial patterns of demersal fish composition, turnover and richness. • The efficacy of Gradient Forest-based classifications for conservation planning were compared to 'traditional' estimates of individual species' distributions. • A single Gradient Forest-based classification was only marginally less efficient in a conservation planning analysis than a more conventional approach (7% less efficient). • Gradient Forest-based classifications summarise complex biodiversity patterns and provide a practical alternative for marine conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dryland agriculture has extensive impacts on surrounding ecosystems through its unintentional provision of food and water resources to local wildlife. We analyzed the response of a predator community of jackals, wolves and foxes to land-management choices, and how that response in turn affects native gazelles and Acacia vegetation in the Arava Valley of Israel. This hyperarid region is characterized by contrasting regimes comprising privatized (Moshavim) and communal (Kibbutzim) agricultural settlements, which provides ideal conditions for evaluating how land-management differences translate into crop choices, affecting resource availability and ecosystem changes. Integrating multi-year field observations of predators and gazelles with agricultural datasets, we show that shifts in land-use strategies have cascading ecological impacts. This is evident in the association of date orchards, an expanding land use especially in Kibbutzim, with shifts in the geographical and seasonal distributions of predators. Increased predator presence due to resource availability has displaced gazelles farther from settlements, subsequently impacting Acacia seed dispersal and recruitment. Considering the global expansion of dryland agriculture, the evidence of such socio-ecological cascading effects suggests the necessity to approach agricultural management at the landscape scale in desert regions. • Land management practices have cascading ecological impacts in hyperarid regions. • Invasive jackals have expanded their distributions tied to agricultural resources. • Predator communities are modified by bottom-up and top-down processes. • Predator changes have in-turn displaced native gazelle farther from settlements. • Shifting gazelle distributions may impact Acacia vegetation by reduced recruitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological communities in the Arctic are changing through the climate-driven encroachment of subarctic species. This "Atlantification" extends to keystone Calanoid copepods, as the small-bodied Calanus finmarchicus increases in abundance in areas where it overlaps with larger Arctic congeners. The environmental factors that are facilitating this shift, whether related to optimal conditions in temperature or seasonality, remain unclear. Assessing these drivers at an Arctic-wide scale is necessary to predict future ecosystem change and impacts. Here we have compiled range-wide occurrences of C. finmarchicus and a suite of seasonal biophysical climatologies to build a boreo-Arctic ecological niche model. The data set was divided into two eras, 1955-1984 and 1985-2017, and an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the seasonal distribution of the abiotic niche of C. finmarchicus in both eras. Comparing outputs between eras reveals an increase in habitat suitability at the Arctic range edge. Large and significant increases in suitability are predicted in the regions of the Greenland, Labrador, and Southern Barents Seas that have experienced reduced sea-ice cover. With the exception of the Barents Sea, these areas also show a seasonal shift in the timing of peak habitat suitability toward an earlier season. Our findings suggest that the Atlantification of Arctic zooplankton communities is accompanied by climate-driven phenology changes. Although seasonality is a critical constraint to the establishment of C. finmarchicus at Arctic latitudes, earlier sea-ice retreat and associated productivity is making these environments increasingly favorable for this subarctic species., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

It is known that species' distributions are influenced by several ecological factors. Nonetheless, the geographical scale upon which the influence of these factors is perceived is largely undefined. We assessed the importance of competition in regulating the distributional limits of species at large geographical scales. We focus on species with similar diets, the European Soricidae shrews, and how interspecific competition changes along climatic gradients. We used presence data for the seven most widespread terrestrial species of Soricidae in Europe, gathered from GBIF, European museums, and climate data from WorldClim. We made use of two Joint Species Distribution Models to analyse the correlations between species' presences, aiming to understand the distinct roles of climate and competition in shaping species' distributions. Our results support three key conclusions: (i) climate alone does not explain all species' distributions at large scales; (ii) negative interactions, such as competition, seem to play a strong role in defining species' range limits, even at large scales; and (iii) the impact of competition on a species' distribution varies along a climatic gradient, becoming stronger at the climatic extremes. Our conclusions support previous research, highlighting the importance of considering biotic interactions when studying species' distributions, regardless of geographical scale.

Marine species are declining at an unprecedented rate, catalyzing many nations to adopt conservation and management targets within their jurisdictions. However, marine species and the biophysical processes that sustain them are naive to international borders. An understanding of the prevalence of cross-border species distributions is important for informing high-level conservation strategies, such as bilateral or regional agreements. Here, we examined 28,252 distribution maps to determine the number and locations of transboundary marine plants and animals. More than 90% of species have ranges spanning at least two jurisdictions, with 58% covering more than 10 jurisdictions. All jurisdictions have at least one transboundary species, with the highest concentrations of transboundary species in the USA, Australia, Indonesia, and the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction. Distributions of mapped biodiversity indicate that overcoming the challenges of multinational governance is critical for a much wider suite of species than migratory megavertebrates and commercially exploited fish stocks-the groups that have received the vast majority of multinational management attention. To effectively protect marine biodiversity, international governance mechanisms (particularly those related to the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Convention on Migratory Species, and Regional Seas Organizations) must be expanded to promote multinational conservation planning, and complimented by a holistic governance framework for biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Ecological research heavily relies on coarse-gridded climate data based on standardized temperature measurements recorded at 2 m height in open landscapes. However, many organisms experience environmental conditions that differ substantially from those captured by these macroclimatic (i.e. free air) temperature grids. In forests, the tree canopy functions as a thermal insulator and buffers sub-canopy microclimatic conditions, thereby affecting biological and ecological processes. To improve the assessment of climatic conditions and climate-change-related impacts on forest-floor biodiversity and functioning, high-resolution temperature grids reflecting forest microclimates are thus urgently needed. Combining more than 1200 time series of in situ near-surface forest temperature with topographical, biological and macroclimatic variables in a machine learning model, we predicted the mean monthly offset between sub-canopy temperature at 15 cm above the surface and free-air temperature over the period 2000-2020 at a spatial resolution of 25 m across Europe. This offset was used to evaluate the difference between microclimate and macroclimate across space and seasons and finally enabled us to calculate mean annual and monthly temperatures for European forest understories. We found that sub-canopy air temperatures differ substantially from free-air temperatures, being on average 2.1°C (standard deviation ± 1.6°C) lower in summer and 2.0°C higher (±0.7°C) in winter across Europe. Additionally, our high-resolution maps expose considerable microclimatic variation within landscapes, not captured by the gridded macroclimatic products. The provided forest sub-canopy temperature maps will enable future research to model below-canopy biological processes and patterns, as well as species distributions more accurately., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Species occurrence records from a variety of sources are increasingly aggregated into heterogeneous databases and made available to ecologists for immediate analytical use. However, these data are typically biased, i.e. they are not a probability sample of the target population of interest, meaning that the information they provide may not be an accurate reflection of reality. It is therefore crucial that species occurrence data are properly scrutinised before they are used for research. In this article, we introduce occAssess, an R package that enables straightforward screening of species occurrence data for potential biases. The package contains a number of discrete functions, each of which returns a measure of the potential for bias in one or more of the taxonomic, temporal, spatial, and environmental dimensions. Users can opt to provide a set of time periods into which the data will be split; in this case separate outputs will be provided for each period, making the package particularly useful for assessing the suitability of a dataset for estimating temporal trends in species' distributions. The outputs are provided visually (as ggplot2 objects) and do not include a formal recommendation as to whether data are of sufficient quality for any given inferential use. Instead, they should be used as ancillary information and viewed in the context of the question that is being asked, and the methods that are being used to answer it. We demonstrate the utility of occAssess by applying it to data on two key pollinator taxa in South America: leaf-nosed bats (Phyllostomidae) and hoverflies (Syrphidae). In this worked example, we briefly assess the degree to which various aspects of data coverage appear to have changed over time. We then discuss additional applications of the package, highlight its limitations, and point to future development opportunities., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Gradient Forests (GF) is a machine learning algorithm that is gaining in popularity for studying the environmental drivers of genomic variation and for incorporating genomic information into climate change impact assessments. Here we (i) provide the first experimental evaluation of the ability of "genomic offsets" - a metric of climate maladaptation derived from Gradient Forests - to predict organismal responses to environmental change, and (ii) explore the use of GF for identifying candidate SNPs. We used high-throughput sequencing, genome scans, and several methods, including GF, to identify candidate loci associated with climate adaptation in balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.). Individuals collected throughout balsam poplar's range also were planted in two common garden experiments. We used GF to relate candidate loci to environmental gradients and predict the expected magnitude of the response (i.e., the genetic offset metric of maladaptation) of populations when transplanted from their "home" environment to the common gardens. We then compared the predicted genetic offsets from different sets of candidate and randomly selected SNPs to measurements of population performance in the common gardens. We found the expected inverse relationship between genetic offset and performance: populations with larger predicted genetic offsets performed worse in the common gardens than populations with smaller offsets. Also, genetic offset better predicted performance than did "naive" climate transfer distances. However, sets of randomly selected SNPs predicted performance slightly better than did candidate SNPs. Our study provides evidence that genetic offsets represent a first order estimate of the degree of expected maladaptation of populations exposed to rapid environmental change and suggests GF may have some promise as a method for identifying candidate SNPs., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

SummaryAim This paper describes the distribution pattern (occurrence) of badgers (Meles meles L. 1758) in a Mediterranean mountain area of central Spain, in relation to landscape characteristics and climatic data. We test the fit of the badger occurrence pattern to the niche hypothesis predictions. Location We sampled twenty-four survey plots randomly distributed in the mountains of central Spain (Sierra de Guadarrama, Madrid): ten in the north and fourteen in the south slopes. All habitat types and climatic conditions typical of central Spain can be found. Methods The ocurrence of badgers in the plots were recorded through an exhaustive search of setts and latrines in four different (and evenly spaced) points in each plot. The index of occurrence was made by dividing the number of positive points (badger presence) by the total number of points sampled (four in all plots). Landscape patterns (% type of habitat in each plot) were obtained from detailed maps and climate data from meteorological stations placed in the plot. We analyse the contribution of landscape variables and climate data to explain the differences in badger occurrence through Pearson correlations and fixed one-way ANCOVA with climatic data as fixed factor, vegetation cover as covariates and badger occurrence as response variable. Additionally, we use an one-way ANOVA to check the differences in occurrence between north and south plots with the location of each plot as fixed factor. Results The results indicate that the badger is more abundant in rainy areas of the mountains, and in open landscapes vegetated by ash-tree forests than in closed landscapes vegetated by holm oak forests. In addition, the species is more abundant in the northern plots than in the southern ones. Northern plots were homogeneous areas characterized by their open landscape and wet climate, while southern plots were characterized by their dry climate and closed landscapes. In addition, climate (measured as summer rain) is more determinant than habitat type (holm oak cover) to explain the pattern of badger occurrence. Main conclusions Overall, we consider that the typical Mediterranean landscapes are poor habitats for badgers due to changes in the environmental conditions associated with concomitant changes in food resources. These data support the niche hypothesis to explain the changes in abundance or occurrence close to the edge of the distribution of species, and in particular, in Palearctic species in the Mediterranean area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]