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This study attempts to provide scientifically-sound evidence for designing more effective COVID-19 policies in the transport and public health sectors by comparing 418 policy measures (244 are transport measures) taken in different months of 2020 in Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the UK, and the US. The effectiveness of each policy is measured using nine indicators of infections and mobilities corresponding to three periods (i.e., one week, two weeks, and one month) before and after policy implementation. All policy measures are categorized based on the PASS approach (P: prepare-protect-provide; A: avoid-adjust; S: shift-share; S: substitute-stop). First, policy effectiveness is compared between policies, between countries, and over time. Second, a dynamic Bayesian multilevel generalized structural equation model is developed to represent dynamic cause-effect relationships between policymaking, its influencing factors and its consequences, within a unified research framework. Third, major policy measures in the six countries are compared. Finally, findings for policymakers are summarized and extensively discussed. [Display omitted] • COVID-19 transport-related policymaking in six developed countries are compared. • Effectiveness of 418 PASS-based policy measures are examined by using 27 indicators. • Policy effectiveness is compared between policies, between countries and over time. • A dynamic Bayesian multilevel generalized structural equation model is developed. • Dynamic relationships between policymaking, factors and consequences are revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Evidence linking air pollution with adverse cardiopulmonary outcomes is accumulating. However, few studies have been conducted to evaluate whether vehicle emission control improves public health. We thus evaluated the effect of a diesel emission control law on mortality rates in 23 wards of Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan. We obtained daily counts of mortality and concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter less than 2.5μm in diameter (PM2.5) from April 2003 to December 2008. Time-series and interrupted time-series analysis were employed to analyze the data in two periods: prior to the introduction of tighter restrictions (April 2003 to March 2006) and after the enforcement (April 2006 to December 2008). Concentrations of air pollutants gradually decreased during the study period: from 36.3ppb (NO2) and 22.8μg/m3 (PM2.5) to 32.1ppb and 20.3μg/m3, respectively. Air pollutants were positively associated with circulatory and pulmonary disease mortality, especially cerebrovascular disease. Each same-dayPM2.5 increase of 10μg/m3 was associated with a 1.3% increase in cerebrovascular mortality rate (95% confidence interval: 0.2–2.4). Rate ratios were attenuated after the enforcement in most of the outcomes, probably due to reduced toxicity of the pollutants. In the crude interrupted time-series analysis, reductions of standardized mortality rates after the enforcement were the greatest in high traffic areas. Even after adjustment of longer-time trend, mortality rate from cerebrovascular disease was reduced by 8.50% (p<.001) with dose–response relationship. However, the declines in other cause-specific mortality became equivocal. This natural experiment in Tokyo suggests that emission controls improved air quality. Although suggestive, further data are needed to conclusively demonstrate an impact on mortality rates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Many studies have shown an association between long-term exposure to particulate matter having an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) and diabetes mellitus (DM), but few studies have focused on Asian subjects. We thus examined the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and DM prevalence in Okayama City, Japan. We included 76,591 participants who had received basic health checkups in 2006 and 2007. We assigned the census-level modeled PM2.5 data from 2006 and 2007 to each participant and defined DM using treatment status and the blood testing. PM2.5 was associated with DM prevalence, and the prevalence ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.10 (1.00-1.20) following each interquartile range increase (2.1 μg/m3) in PM2.5. This finding is consistent with previous results and suggests that long-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with an increased prevalence of DM in Okayama City, Japan, where the PM2.5 level is lower than in other cities in Asian countries., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.

Background Despite the impact of heat exposure caused by global warming, few studies have investigated the hourly effects of heat exposure and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the elderly. We examined the associations between short-term heat exposure and the risk of CVD in the elderly in Japan and evaluated possible effect-measure modifications by rainy seasons that occur in East Asia. Methods and Results We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study. The study included 6527 residents in Okayama City, Japan, aged ≥65 years who were transported to emergency hospitals between 2012 and 2019 for the onset of CVD during and a few months after the rainy seasons. We examined the linear associations between temperature and CVD-related emergency calls for each year and for hourly preceding intervals before the emergency call during the most relevant months. Heat exposure during 1 month after the end of the rainy season was associated with CVD risk; the odds ratio (OR) for a 1° C increase in temperature was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.29-1.40). When we further explored the nonlinear association by using the natural cubic spline model, we found a J-shaped relationship. Exposures 0 to 6 hours before the case event (preceding intervals 0-6 hours) were associated with CVD risk, particularly for the preceding interval 0 to 1 hour (OR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.28-1.39]). For longer periods, the highest risk was at preceding intervals 0 to 23 hours (OR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.34-1.46]). Conclusions Elderly individuals may be more susceptible to CVD after heat exposure during the month after the rainy season. As shown by finer temporal resolution analyses, short-term exposure to increasing temperature can trigger CVD onset.

Background: Floods and torrential rains are natural disasters caused by climate change. Unfortunately, such events are more frequent and are increasingly severe in recent times. The 2018 Japan Floods in western Japan were one of the largest such disasters. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on healthcare costs and service utilization., Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all patients whose receipts accrued between July 2017 and June 2019 in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to investigate yearly healthcare costs during the pre-and post-disaster periods, quarterly high-cost patients (top 10%), and service utilization (outpatient care, inpatient care, and dispensing pharmacy) during the post-disaster period. After the GEEs, we estimated the average marginal effects as the attributable disaster effect., Results: The total number of participants was 5,534,276. Victims accounted for 0.65% of the total number of participants (n = 36,032). Although there was no significant difference in pre-disaster healthcare costs (p = 0.63), post-disaster costs were $3,382 (95% CI: 3,254-3,510) for victims and $3,027 (95% CI: 3,015-3,038) for non-victims (p < 0.001). The highest risk difference among high-cost patients was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.6-1.1) in the fourth quarter. In contrast, the highest risk difference of service utilization was in the first quarter (outpatient care: 7.0% (95% CI: 6.7-7.4), inpatient care: 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1-1.5), and dispensing pharmacy: 5.9% (95% CI: 5.5-6.4))., Conclusion: Victims of the 2018 Japan Floods had higher medical costs and used more healthcare services than non-victims. In addition, the risk of higher medical costs was highest at the end of the observation period. It is necessary to estimate the increase in healthcare costs according to the disaster scale and plan for appropriate post-disaster healthcare service delivery., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Level of care-need (LOC) is an indicator of elderly person's disability level and is officially used to determine the care services provided in Japan's long-term care insurance (LTCI) system. The 2018 Japan Floods, which struck western Japan in July 2018, were the country's second largest water disaster. This study determined the extent to which the disaster affected the LOC of victims and compared it with that of non-victims., Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study, based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims from two months before (May 2018) to five months after the disaster (December 2018) in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures, which were the most severely damaged areas in the country. A code indicating victim status, certified by a residential municipality, was used to distinguish between victims and non-victims. Those aged 64 years or younger, those who had the most severe LOC before the disaster, and those whose LOC increased even before the disaster were excluded. The primary endpoint was the augmentation of pre-disaster LOC after the disaster, which was evaluated using the survival time analysis. Age, gender, and type of care service were used as covariates., Results: Of the total 193,723 participants, 1,407 (0.7%) were certified disaster victims. Five months after the disaster, 135 (9.6%) of victims and 14,817 (7.7%) of non-victims experienced the rise of LOC. The victim group was significantly more likely to experience an augmentation of LOC than the non-victim group (adjusted hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.45)., Conclusions: Older people who were affected by the disaster needed more care than before and the degree of care-need increase was substantially more than non-victims. The result suggests that natural disasters generate more demand for care services among the older people, and incur more resources and cost for society than before.

Introduction: Solutions for geographic maldistribution of physicians is challenging around the world, but primary care specialists are expected to resolve this issue. This study compares the geographic distribution of family physicians in Japan and the USA, both of which are developed countries without a major system for physician allocation by the public sector; however, the two countries differ greatly in the maturity of family medicine (ie length of its history as part of the healthcare system and the population of qualified family medicine experts)., Methods: This cross-sectional comparative study used publicly available online databases for Japan in 2018 and 2017 in the USA. The municipalities in Japan and counties in the USA were divided into quintile groups according to population density. The number of family physicians per unit population in each group of areas was calculated, and was evaluated with a residual analysis. The geographic distribution of all physicians in Japan was simulated assuming that the proportion of family physicians among all physicians in Japan (0.16%) was increased to match that in the USA (11.8%)., Results: Of 320 084 physicians in Japan and 899 244 in the USA, 519 (77.2%) family physicians in Japan and 105 999 (100%) in the USA were included. The distribution of family physicians in Japan was noticeably shifted to areas with the lowest population density. In contrast, family physicians in the USA were distributed equally across areas. The distribution of physicians of other specialties (general internists, pediatricians, surgeons and obstetricians/gynecologists) was shifted heavily to areas with the highest population densities in both countries. The simulation analysis showed the geographic maldistribution of the total number of physicians improved substantially if the proportion of family physicians in Japan is increased to match that in the USA., Conclusion: The distribution of family physicians is more equitable than that of other medical specialists; however, an immature family medicine system can lead to an aggregation of family physicians in rural areas. This aggregation supports equity due to the broader scope of practice required by family physicians in rural areas. In countries where family medicine has not yet matured as a specialty, provided that the equitable aggregation of family physicians in rural areas can be maintained, increasing the number of family physicians as a proportion of the total number of physicians may improve the geographic maldistribution of the total number of physicians.

Objectives: Natural disasters can impair the cognitive function of older victims. However, it is unknown whether such natural disasters affect drug treatment for dementia. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods, the second largest water-related disaster in Japan, on the prescriptions of antidementia drugs (ADD) for older people (≥65 years of age)., Design: Retrospective cohort study., Setting and Participants: Prescription data in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures for 1 year before and after the disaster were extracted from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims. From the database, we selected 1,710,119 people age 65 years or over as the study participants., Methods: In logistic regression models, sex- and age-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of victims for new ADD prescriptions were calculated. Trends for the ORs before and after the disaster were evaluated using difference-in-difference models. Whether or not there was an increase in the trend for ADD prescriptions (daily dose or number of drug types) was also evaluated among continuous ADD users., Results: Among 1,710,119 participants, 15,994 (0.9%) were recorded as a disaster-victims, and 112,289 (6.6%) were prescribed ADD. Among original nonusers, after the disaster, victims were more likely to start using ADD than nonvictims who had not been affected [adjusted OR = 1.33 (95% CI 1.16-1.52)]. Among continuous users, an increasing trend for ADD prescriptions was more often observed for victims than nonvictims [1.61 (1.13-2.31)]. This effect was robust even after the predisaster trend of ADD use was taken into consideration., Conclusions and Implications: The disaster increased the number of users of antidementia medications. The findings suggest the need for evidence-based recommendations to address cognitive impairment among disaster victims, which is lacking in current clinical and disaster guidelines worldwide., (Copyright © 2022 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Most older people with disabilities or illnesses continue to use long-term care (LTC) services for the rest of their lives. However, disasters can cause a discontinuation of LTC services, which usually means tragic outcomes of affected persons. In view of the recent progression of population aging and the increase in natural disasters, this study focuses on the impact of disasters on older people's discontinuation of LTC services, and those more risk of such discontinuation than others. However, current evidence is scarce., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 259,081 subjects, 2,762 of whom had been affected by disaster and 256,319 who had not been affected during the 2018 Japan Floods. The sample in the three most disaster-affected prefectures was drawn from the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database and included older people certified with care-need level. The observation period was two months before the disaster and five months after it. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) of municipality-certified subjects affected by the disaster versus those who were not. Subgroup analyses were conducted for categories of individual-, facility- and region-associated factors., Results: Affected persons were twice as likely to discontinue LTC services than those who were not affected (adjusted HR, 2.06 95% CI, 1.91-2.23). 34% of affected persons whose facilities were closed discontinued their LTC services at five months after the disaster. A subgroup analysis showed that the risk of discontinuing LTC services for affected persons compared to those who were not affected in the relatively younger subgroup (age < 80: adjusted HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.20-2.96 vs. age ≥ 80 : 1.91; 1.75-2.10), and the subgroup requiring a lower level of care (low: 3.16; 2.74-3.66 vs. high: 1.71; 1.50-1.96) were more likely to discontinue than the older and higher care level subgroups., Conclusions: A natural disaster has a significant effect on the older people's discontinuation of LTC services. The discontinuations are supposedly caused by affected persons' death, hospitalization, forced relocation of individuals, or the service provider's incapacity. Accordingly, it is important to recognize the risk of disasters and take measures to avoid discontinuation to protect older persons' quality of life., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization., Methods: The participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect., Results: The total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to - 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively., Conclusions: The 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: The July 2018 Japan Floods caused enormous damage to western Japan. Such disasters can especially impact elderly persons. Research has shown that natural disasters exacerbated a decline in cognitive function, but to date, there have been no studies examining the effects of this disaster on the elderly. The object of this study was to reveal the effect of this disaster in terms of cognitive decline among the elderly., Methods: Study participants were certified users of the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures from May 2018 to June 2018. The observation period was from July 2018 to December 2018. Our primary outcome was cognitive decline after the disaster using a dementia symptomatology assessment. In addition to a crude model, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the cognitive decline of victims, adjusting for age classification, gender, the level of dementia scale before the disaster occurred, residential environment, whether a participant used facilities shut down after the disaster, and population density. After we confirmed that the interaction term between victims and residential environment was statistically significant, we stratified them for the analysis., Results: The total number of participants was 264,614. Victims accounted for 1.10% of the total participants (n = 2,908). For the Cox proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio of the victims was 1.18 (95% confidential interval (CI): 1.05-1.32) in the crude model and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00-1.26) in the adjusted model. After being stratified by residential environment, the hazard ratio of home victims was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.06-1.36) and the hazard ratio of facility victims was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.67-1.17)., Conclusions: This study showed that elderly living at home during the 2018 Japan Floods were at risk for cognitive decline. Medical providers, care providers, and local governments should establish a system to check on the cognitive function of elderly victims and provide necessary care support., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objectives: In India, although nutritional conditions have improved, a high prevalence of anthropometric failure is still reported in children. Unfortunately, there are knowledge gaps surrounding nutrient and anthropometric shortcomings as well as dietary patterns. More than half of children are consuming a vegetarian diet. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of dietary adequacy levels on anthropometric failure in 5772 vegetarian children (ages 6-23 mo) satisfying minimum dietary diversity., Methods: Data were collected from the National Family Health Survey 2015-16. We created three food combinations: maximum adequacy (dairy and four food groups), medium adequacy (dairy and three food groups), and minimum adequacy (four food groups excluding dairy). We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for the association between dietary adequacy levels and anthropometric failures with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using logistic regression models. The modification effect of breastfeeding status was also explored., Results: Approximately 35% of children had stunted growth. ORs showed a significant increase in the risk of anthropometric failure, notably wasting, and underweight in children with minimum-adequacy diets (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.15-1.86) compared with children with maximum-adequacy diets. Those associations were more pronounced among children who were not breastfed (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.19-5.00) than among children who were (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.04-1.74; P value for the interaction = 0.07). Similar associations were observed for wasting among children who were not breastfed (OR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.34-5.95) and who were breastfed(OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.85-1.5; P value for the interaction = 0.03)., Conclusions: Dairy is an essential source of nutrients that are required for healthy growth and development in children younger than 2 y, even if they satisfy minimum dietary diversity conditions in India., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Oric Id: 0000-0002-3401-8191. It is unknown whether the interrelationship between diabetes and muscle loss is affected by ageing. Therefore, the serum creatinine levels, an indicator of muscle mass, were compared between older people with diabetes and those without diabetes, using a cross-sectional dataset from the Yuport Medical Checkup Center Study. We classified 6133 participants without kidney dysfunction into three age-groups: early-elderly (65-69 years), middle-elderly (70-74 years), and late-elderly (≥ 75 years). The association between diabetes and the lowest creatinine level, defined as less than or equal to the 25 percentile of serum creatinine, was evaluated in each age group, by calculating the odds ratio (OR) using logistic regression. Serum creatinine levels increased with ageing in the participants, and these trends were markedly observed in the non-diabetic group. Late-elderly people with diabetes were significantly more likely to have low creatinine levels than those without diabetes, with adjusted ORs 2.50 (95% CI 1.99-4.50) in men and 2.88 (95% CI 1.47-5.64) in women. Ageing modified the effect of their diabetes status towards a lower creatinine level (p for interactions between the diabetic status and age-groups were 0.01 in men and 0.05 in women, respectively). Ageing may thus accelerate the loss of muscle mass in people with diabetes., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objectives: This study evaluated the characteristics of individuals with voluntary behavioural changes (cancellation and postponement of bookings) during the early stages of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Japan. In addition, the temporal trends of these changes were captured., Study Design: A cross-sectional analysis and a time series analysis were conducted., Methods: A nation-wide retrospective panel survey was conducted at the end of March 2020 (n = 1052). Odds ratios for cancellations/postponements with respect to individual characteristics were calculated in the analysis. To determine the temporal trend, the incidence ratios were compared throughout the time series analysis for four time periods: period 1, before the announcement of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) from the World Health Organisation (WHO) (January 1-31); period 2, after the announcement of PHEIC (February 1-26); period 3, after the announcement of school closures by the Japanese government (February 27 - March 11); and period 4, after the announcement of the pandemic by the WHO (March 12-31)., Results: In total, 72% of respondents cancelled or postponed their bookings at least once, and about half of the changes occurred in period 3. Elderly individuals' changes in gatherings were, on average, 5.9 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-17.9) higher than those of young individuals. The incidence rate of change in gatherings during period 3 was 7.11 times (95% CI: 5.16-9.81) higher than in period 2 and 3.15 times (95% CI: 2.25-4.43) higher than in period 4. Significant interaction terms were observed in age and residential city size, but not sex, of the respondents., Conclusions: A significant proportion of the Japanese population voluntarily changed their behaviour during the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, and the government's announcement of school closures was a key trigger during this time., (Copyright © 2021 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: To show the practice location of graduates from two Japanese programs recruiting physicians to rural areas: a regional quota program of medical schools and a prefecture scholarship program (a prefecture is an administrative geographic division). Graduates of each program must work in a designated rural prefecture for a fixed period., Method: A nationwide cohort study was conducted for three groups of participants graduating between 2014 and 2016: quota graduates without scholarship (quota alone), nonquota graduates with scholarship (scholarship alone), and quota graduates with scholarship. A questionnaire was sent via medical school or prefecture office to each potential subject to collect baseline individual data, including home prefecture and graduation year. Data were connected through physician identification number to the Physician Census 2016 of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare to identify the subjects' practice location and compared with data for other physicians in the census. Comparisons were conducted with Mann-Whitney and chi-square tests., Results: The proportion of physicians working in nonmetropolitan municipalities for quota alone (185/244; 75.8%), scholarship alone (305/363; 84.0%), and quota with scholarship (341/384; 88.8%) was significantly higher than for other physicians (13,299/22,906; 58.1%). Median population density of the municipalities where subjects worked for quota alone (1,042.4 persons per square kilometer), scholarship alone (613.5), and quota with scholarship (547.4) was significantly lower than that for other physicians (3,214.0). These disparities increased with number of years since graduation., Conclusions: The regional quota and prefecture scholarship programs succeeded in producing physicians who practiced in rural areas of Japan.

Background: A number of studies have linked long-term exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) with mortality, but most of these studies were conducted in Europe and North America. Studies in Asian countries had been conducted at relatively high exposures. We evaluated the association of long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and natural-cause and cause-specific mortality in Japan, where PM 2.5 levels are relatively low compared with levels in other Asian countries., Methods: A cohort of 75,531 participants underwent basic health checkups in Okayama City in 2006 or 2007. We followed the participants until the end of 2016. Average PM 2.5 levels from 2006 to 2010 were obtained and assigned to the participants by geographical location. We used the Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios for a 5-μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 levels for natural-cause or cause-specific mortality, adjusting for potential confounders., Results: PM 2.5 exposure was associated with increased risk of mortality; the hazard ratios were 1.29 (95% confidence interval = 1.18, 1.41) for mortality from natural causes, 1.16 (1.02, 1.32) for cardiorespiratory mortality, and 1.63 (1.13, 2.34) for lung cancer mortality. PM 2.5 exposure was more strongly associated with cardiorespiratory mortality from hypertension, pneumonia and influenza, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease than with ischemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease. Elderly participants and smokers tended to have higher effect estimates., Conclusion: Long-term exposure to PM 2.5 can increase the risk of natural-cause, cardiorespiratory, and lung cancer mortality in Japan., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest with regard to the content of this report., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of Environmental Epidemiology. All rights reserved.)

Objective: We assessed the combined effect of household air pollution from solid fuel use and from environmental tobacco smoke and child health outcomes in Indonesia., Methods: Survey subjects self-reported solid fuel use, frequency of indoor smoking, and health outcomes in children. We then evaluated the effect of a combined exposure using multivariate logistic regression., Results: Children exposed to high levels of pollution from solid fuel use had an increased risk of low birth weight, neonatal death, infant death, and acute lower respiratory infection. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke increased the risk of acute lower respiratory infection. The combined effect of both pollution sources outweighed the independent risk of each exposure alone., Conclusions: Solid fuel use and environmental tobacco smoke independently increased the risk and child health outcomes and the combined exposure showed the additive effect.

Background: Typically, land use regression (LUR) models have been developed using campaign monitoring data rather than routine monitoring data. However, the latter have advantages such as low cost and long-term coverage. Based on the idea that LUR models representing regional differences in air pollution and regional road structures are optimal, the objective of this study was to evaluate the validity of LUR models for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) based on routine and campaign monitoring data obtained from an urban area., Method: We selected the city of Suita in Osaka (Japan). We built a model based on routine monitoring data obtained from all sites (routine-LUR-All), and a model based on campaign monitoring data (campaign-LUR) within the city. Models based on routine monitoring data obtained from background sites (routine-LUR-BS) and based on data obtained from roadside sites (routine-LUR-RS) were also built. The routine LUR models were based on monitoring networks across two prefectures (i.e., Osaka and Hyogo prefectures). We calculated the predictability of the each model. We then compared the predicted NO 2 concentrations from each model with measured annual average NO 2 concentrations from evaluation sites., Results: The routine-LUR-All and routine-LUR-BS models both predicted NO 2 concentrations well: adjusted R 2 =0.68 and 0.76, respectively, and root mean square error=3.4 and 2.1ppb, respectively. The predictions from the routine-LUR-All model were highly correlated with the measured NO 2 concentrations at evaluation sites. Although the predicted NO 2 concentrations from each model were correlated, the LUR models based on routine networks, and particularly those based on all monitoring sites, provided better visual representations of the local road conditions in the city., Conclusion: The present study demonstrated that LUR models based on routine data could estimate local traffic-related air pollution in an urban area. The importance and usefulness of data from routine monitoring networks should be acknowledged., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Severe methylmercury poisoning occurred in Minamata and neighboring communities in Japan during the 1950s and 1960s, causing what is known as Minamata disease. Although an increase in stillbirths and a reduced male proportion at birth (i.e., reduced sex ratio) have been reported, no studies have evaluated the impact of exposure on an entire set of infant and birth outcomes. We therefore evaluated the temporal trends of these outcomes in the Minamata area from 1950 to 1974. We focused on the spontaneous/artificial stillbirth rate, crude fertility rate, male proportion at birth, male proportion among stillbirths, and infant mortality. We obtained the number of stillbirths, live births, and infant deaths in Minamata City and Kumamoto Prefecture (as a reference) from 1950 to 1974. After plotting annual figures for each outcome, we divided the study period into five intervals and compared them between Minamata City and Kumamoto Prefecture using the chi-squared test. We observed a slightly increased spontaneous stillbirth rate and decreased artificial stillbirth rate in Minamata City, followed by a reduced crude fertility rate. The crude fertility rates in Minamata City during the period 1955-1965 were significantly lower compared with those in Kumamoto Prefecture (p < 0.001). An increase in the male proportion among stillbirths was observed, corresponding to a reduction in the proportion of males at birth in the late 1950s. The impact on infant mortality was equivocal. These descriptive analyses demonstrate a severe regional impact of methylmercury exposure on a series of birth outcomes in the Minamata area., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Factors influencing the susceptibility of the elderly to the adverse health effects of short-term exposure to desert dust have yet to be explored. We aimed to identify the disease histories that increase the susceptibility of the elderly to disease onset induced by dust events., Methods: We used a time-stratified case-crossover design using data on 17,874 elderly residents (≥65 years) of Okayama, Japan, who were transported to hospital emergency rooms because of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases between 2006 and 2010. We used conditional logistic models to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) per interquartile increase of Asian dust. We then conducted stratified analyses based on patients with or without a history of chronic disease., Results: Dust concentration was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular (3-day lag), cerebrovascular (same day), and respiratory (3-day lag) disease onset. Patients with a history of respiratory disease had a higher risk of cardiovascular (OR: 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00, 1.19] vs. 0.99 [0.97, 1.01]; P for interaction = 0.03) or cerebrovascular (1.15 [1.01, 1.31] vs. 0.99 [0.97, 1.01]; P = 0.02) disease onset (2-day lag) than those without. Patients with diabetes also had a higher risk of cerebrovascular disease onset (1.09 [1.00, 1.19] vs. 0.99 [0.97, 1.01]; P = 0.05) (2-day lag). In contrast, patients with a history of cerebrovascular disease had a lower risk of respiratory disease., Conclusions: People with a history of respiratory disease or diabetes might have a greater susceptibility to cardiovascular disease from Asian dust and would therefore benefit from proactive interventions during desert dust events.

Introduction: Recent studies suggest positive associations between prenatal exposure to ambient air pollution and neurodevelopment of children, but evidence on the adverse effects of exposure to air pollution on child neurobehavioral development remains limited. We thus examined associations between prenatal exposure to outdoor air pollution and child behavioral problems at school age, using data from a nationwide population-based longitudinal survey in Japan, where participants were recruited in 2001 and are continuously followed., Methods: Suspended particulate matter (SPM), nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide concentrations during the 9months before birth were obtained at municipality level and assigned to those participants born in the corresponding municipality. We analyzed data from singleton births with linked pollution data available (e.g., n=33,911 for SPM). We used responses to survey questions about behavioral problems at age 8years. We conducted multilevel logistic regression analysis, adjusting for individual and municipality-level variables., Results: Air pollution exposure during gestation was positively associated with risk for behavioral problems related to attention and delinquent or aggressive behavior. In the fully adjusted models, odds ratios following a one-interquartile-range increase in SPM were 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.11) for interrupting others, 1.09 (1.03, 1.15) for failure to pay attention when crossing a street, 1.06 (1.01, 1.11) for lying, and 1.07 (1.02, 1.13) for causing public disturbance., Conclusions: Prenatal exposure to outdoor air pollution was associated with behavioral problems related to attention and delinquent or aggressive behavior at age 8years in a nationally representative sample in Japan., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Evidence linking air pollution with adverse health outcomes is accumulating. However, few studies have adopted a quasi-experimental design to evaluate whether decline in air pollution from regulatory action improves public health. We evaluated the effect of a diesel emission control ordinance introduced in 2003 on mortality rates in 23 wards of the Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan, from October 2000 to September 2012, taking into account change in mortality rates in a reference population (Osaka) with a introduction of such a regulation in 2009., Methods: We obtained daily counts of all-cause and cause-specific mortality and concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) during the study period. We employed interrupted time-series analysis to analyze the data., Results: Decline in NO2 during the study period was similar in the two areas, while decline in PM2.5 and the improvement in age-standardized mortality rates were greater in Tokyo's 23 wards compared with Osaka. Even after adjusting for age-standardized mortality rates in Osaka, percent changes in mortality between the first 3-year interval (October 2000 to September 2003) and the last 3-year interval (October 2009 to September 2012) were -6.0% for all causes, -11% for cardiovascular disease, -10% for ischemic heart disease, -6.2% for cerebrovascular disease, -22% for pulmonary disease, and -4.9% for lung cancer. We did not observe a decline in mortality from other causes., Conclusions: This quasi-experimental study in Tokyo suggests that emission control was associated with improvements in both air quality and health outcomes.

Few studies have evaluated the effect of short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) less than 2.5μm in diameter (PM2.5) or to coarse particles on infant mortality. We evaluated the association between short-term exposure to PM and infant mortality in Japan and assessed whether adverse health effects were observable at PM concentrations below Japanese air quality guidelines. We used a time-stratified, case-crossover design. The participants included 2086 infants who died in the 23 urbanized wards of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government between January 2002 and December 2013. We obtained measures of PM2.5 and suspended particulate matter (SPM; PM<7μm in diameter) from one general monitoring station. As a measure of coarse particles, we calculated PM7-2.5 by subtracting PM2.5 from SPM. We then used conditional logistic regression to analyze the data. Same-day PM2.5 was associated with increased risks of infant and postneonatal mortality, especially for mortality related to respiratory causes. For a 10μg/m(3) increase in PM2.5, the odds ratios were 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.12) for infant mortality and 1.10 (1.02-1.19) for postneonatal mortality. PM7-2.5 was also associated with an increased risk of postneonatal mortality, independent of PM2.5. Even when PM2.5 and SPM concentrations were below Japanese air quality guidelines, we observed adverse health effects. This study provides further evidence that acute exposure to PM2.5 and coarse particles (PM7-2.5) is associated with an increased risk of infant mortality. Further, rigorous evaluation of air quality guidelines for daily average PM2.5 and larger particles is needed., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Secondary sex ratio (i.e., male proportion at birth) is considered to function as a sentinel health indicator. Thus, examining this ratio spatially and temporally in regions with severe environmental exposure to compounds such as methylmercury may provide insight into the evolution of exposure., Methods: We evaluated spatial and temporal distributions of the secondary sex ratio in Minamata, Japan, and neighboring areas, where severe methylmercury poisoning occurred in the 1950s and 1960s. We selected four areas exposed to methylmercury: Minamata, Ashikita, Goshonoura, and Izumi. After obtaining the number of live births, we conducted descriptive analyses by study area., Results: We observed a reduction in male births in the exposed areas. In particular, a decline in the sex ratio of the Minamata area, where the first patient was officially identified in 1956, was seen around 1955. The ratio during 1955-1959 around Minamata was 0.496 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.481-0.511]; the 95% CI did not include the value of 0.515 (the secondary sex ratio of the entire Japanese population during the study period). Declines in this ratio were also observed in other exposed areas around 1960, when acetaldehyde production (the origin of methylmercury) reached its peak., Conclusions: These analyses demonstrate that temporal and spatial distributions of the secondary sex ratio reflect the evolution of methylmercury exposure corresponding with the known history of Minamata disease.

Recent studies have reported adverse health effects of short-term exposure to coarse particles independent of particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5), but evidence in Asian countries is limited. We therefore evaluated associations between short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and mortality among older people in Tokyo, Japan. We used a time-stratified, case-crossover design. Study participants included 664,509 older people (≥65 years old) in the 23 urbanized wards of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, who died between January 2002 and December 2013. We obtained PM2.5 and suspended particulate matter (SPM; PM<7 μm in diameter) from one general monitoring station. We calculated PM7-2.5 by subtracting PM2.5 from SPM to account for coarse particles. We then used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 confidence intervals (CIs). Same-day PM2.5 and PM7-2.5 were independently associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases; for example, both pollutants were positively associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality even after simultaneous adjustment for each pollutant: OR of 1.006 (95% CI: 1.003, 1.009) for PM2.5 and 1.016 (95% CI: 1.011, 1.022) for PM7-2.5. Even below concentrations stipulated by the Japanese air quality guidelines for PM2.5 and SPM (PM7), we observed adverse health effects. This study provides further evidence that acute exposure to PM2.5 and coarse particles is associated with increased risk of mortality among older people. Rigorous evaluation of air quality guidelines for daily average PM2.5 and larger particles should be continued., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Recent studies suggest that prenatal exposure to outdoor air pollution is associated with unfavorable neurodevelopment in children. We examined associations between prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution and child behavioral development milestone delays, using data from a nationwide population-based longitudinal survey in Japan, where the participants were recruited in 2001 and followed., Methods: Particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide concentrations during the 9 months before birth were obtained at the municipality level and assigned to the participants who were born in the corresponding municipality. We analyzed data from singleton births with linked pollution data available (N = 33,911 at the maximum). We used responses to survey questions about age-appropriate behaviors at ages 2.5 and 5.5 years as indicators of behavioral development. We conducted multilevel logistic regression analysis, adjusting for individual and municipality-level variables., Results: Air pollution exposure during gestation was positively associated with the risk of some developmental milestone delays at both ages. Specifically, air pollution was associated with verbal and fine motor development at age 2.5 years, and with behaviors related to inhibition and impulsivity at 5.5 years. In the fully-adjusted models, odds ratios following one-interquartile-range increase in nitrogen dioxide and suspended particulate matter were 1.24 (95% confidence interval: 1.07, 1.43) for inability to compose a two-phrase sentence at ages 2.5 and 1.10 (1.05, 1.16) for inability to express emotions at age 5.5 years, respectively., Conclusions: Prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution was associated with behavioral development milestone delays of children in a nationally representative sample in Japan.

Purpose: In 1968, rice oil contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls and polychlorinated dibenzofurans caused a severe outbreak of food poisoning in Japan and was termed locally as "Yusho" (oil disease). In our previous study, we found that area-based standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of some diseases were elevated shortly after the incident. This previous study, however, was unable to determine whether these elevated SMRs were a result of other area-specific factors. To overcome this limitation, we obtained mortality data from the 5 years before the incident and conducted an area-based study using vital statistics records dating from 1963 to 2002., Methods: The population of Nagasaki Prefecture was set as the reference population for calculating SMRs. We also included data on cause-specific mortality attributable to cancer and expanded the population to encompass two severely exposed areas where contaminated rice oil was distributed (namely Tamanoura and Naru). We also calculated SMRs in the remainder of the Shimo-Goto region, excluding the exposed area, which was used as a comparison area., Results: Even after considering the time trends in mortality before the incident, mortality due to diabetes mellitus and heart disease, as well as all-cause mortality, was found to be elevated shortly afterward. Additionally, mortalities due to uterine cancer in Tamanoura and leukemia were also elevated at 30-34 and 10-59 years after the event in both exposed areas, respectively. SMRs for leukemia in Tamanoura were as high as 3.0 (95% confidence interval 1.4-6.2) and 2.4 (1.2-4.8) 10-19 years later. In this period, SMRs for leukemia in the comparison area were not elevated., Conclusions: Further epidemiological studies are needed regarding this rice-oil, "Yusho" outbreak, especially with regard to cancer and non-cancer mortality.

Introduction: Evidence has accumulated on the association between ambient air pollution and adverse birth outcomes. However, most of the previous studies were conducted in geographically distinct areas and suffer from lack of important potential covariates. We examined the effect of ambient air pollution on term low birth weight (LBW) using data from a nationwide population-based longitudinal survey in Japan that began in 2001., Methods: We restricted participants to term singletons (n=44,109). Air pollution concentrations during the 9months before birth were obtained at the municipality level and were assigned to the participants who were born in the corresponding municipality. We conducted multilevel logistic regression analyses adjusting for individual and municipality-level variables., Results: We found that air pollution exposure during pregnancy was positively associated with the risk of term LBW. In the fully adjusted models, odds ratios following one interquartile range increase in each pollutant were 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.19) for suspended particulate matter (SPM), 1.11 (0.99, 1.26) for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and 1.71 (1.18, 2.46) for sulfur dioxide (SO2). Specifically, effect estimates for SPM and NO2 exposure at the first trimester were higher than those at other trimesters, while SO2 was associated with the risk at all trimesters. Nonsmoking mothers were more susceptible to SPM and NO2 exposure compared with smoking mothers., Conclusions: Ambient air pollution increases the risk of term LBW in a nationally representative sample in Japan., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To evaluate the direct health effects of Asian dust on ambulance calls and its role as an effect modifier on the effects of anthropogenic air pollution in Japan., Methods: The subjects were 51,945 elderly residents who visited hospital emergency departments from 2006 to 2010. We evaluated the impact of Asian dust by time-series analyses and the excess risk from suspended particulate matter (SPM) stratified by Asian-dust exposure., Results: Asian dust was associated with daily ambulance calls due to all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease independently of SPM, for example, the relative risk per interquartile increase in Asian dust (3-day lag) was 1.021 (1.002 to 1.039) for cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, Asian dust modified the effects of SPM on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases., Conclusions: Asian dust had adverse effects and modified the effect of SPM.

Objectives: We evaluated the association between short-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan., Methods: We studied 558 residents of Okayama, Japan, who visited hospital emergency departments between January 2006 and December 2010 for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest using a time-stratified case-crossover design. We calculated city-representative average concentrations of different air pollutants and examined the association between air pollution and cardiac arrest., Results: Exposure to air pollution was associated with an elevated risk of cardiac arrest; for example, odds ratios was 1.17 (95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.33) per interquartile-range increase in suspended particulate matter concentrations in the previous 48 to 72 hours. We also observed different susceptibilities to suspended particulate matter and ozone exposures by age category., Conclusions: Short-term exposure to outdoor air pollution was associated with increased risk of cardiac arrest.

Yusho disease, a polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDF) mixed poisoning caused by contaminated rice oil, occurred in Japan in 1968. The evidence on reproductive outcome is limited. We therefore evaluated the regional impact of the exposure to the PCB and PCDF mixture on stillbirth rate and secondary sex ratio among the residents in two severely affected areas. We selected the regionally-affected towns of Tamanoura (n=4390 in 1970) and Naru (n=6569) in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan, for study. We obtained data on stillbirths (spontaneous/artificial) and live-born births (total/male/female) from 1958 to 1994. For a decade and a half after the exposure, an increase in the rate of spontaneous stillbirths coincided with a decrease in the male sex ratio. Compared with the years 1958-1967, the ratios for spontaneous stillbirth rates were 2.16 (95% confidence interval: 1.58 to 2.97) for 1968-1977 and 1.80 (95% confidence interval: 1.25 to 2.60) for 1978-1987. The sex ratio (male proportion) was 0.483 (95% confidence interval: 0.457 to 0.508) in the first 10years after exposure. Exposure to a mixture of PCBs and PCDFs affected stillbirth and sex ratio for a decade and a half after the exposure., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Evidence linking short-term exposure to outdoor air pollution with hemorrhagic stroke is inconclusive., Methods: We evaluated the effects of suspended particulate matter (SPM) on cardiovascular disease mortality, focusing on types of stroke, from March 2005 to December 2010, in five selected prefectures in western Japan. A multicity time-series analysis was used, and Asian dust was adjusted in the models., Results: Even after adjusting for Asian dust, the same-day SPM was positively associated with several types of stroke mortality. Following a 10-μg/m increase in SPM, rate ratios were 1.014 (90% confidence interval [CI]: 1.002 to 1.026) for stroke, 1.030 (90% CI: 1.004 to 1.056) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.016 (90% CI: 1.003 to 1.030) for ischemic stroke mortality., Conclusions: Short-term exposure to outdoor air pollution may increase the risks of hemorrhagic stroke as well as ischemic stroke mortality.

A number of studies have linked exposure to long-term outdoor air pollution with cardiopulmonary disease; however, the evidence for stroke is limited. Furthermore, evidence with the risk for lung cancer (LC) is still inconsistent. We, therefore, evaluated the association between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and cause-specific mortality. Individual data were extracted from participants of an ongoing cohort study in Shizuoka, Japan. A total of 14,001 elderly residents completed questionnaires and were followed from December 1999 to January 2009. Annual individual nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) exposure data, as an index for traffic-related exposure, were modeled using a Land Use Regression model and assigned to the participants. We then estimated the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and their confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a 10 μg/m(3) elevation in NO(2) for all-cause or cause-specific mortality using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models. We found positive associations of NO(2) levels with all-cause (HR=1.12, 95% CI: 1.07-1.18), cardiopulmonary disease (HR=1.22, 95% CI: 1.15-1.30), and LC mortality (HR=1.20, 95% CI: 1.03-1.40). Among cardiopulmonary disease mortality, not only the risk for ischemic heart disease (HR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.11-1.47) but also the risks for stroke were elevated: intracerebral hemorrhage (HR=1.28, 95% CI: 1.05-1.57) and ischemic stroke (HR=1.20, 95% CI: 1.04-1.39). The present study supports the existing evidence that long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution increases the risk of cardiopulmonary as well as LC mortality, and provides additional evidence for adverse effects on intracerebral hemorrhage as well as ischemic stroke., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Desert dust, which is included in course particles, is considered to have potential toxicity. The effect modification of desert dust on associations between anthropogenic air pollution and mortality has been evaluated. However, the independent effects of Asian dust are less clear. Thus, we evaluated the effects of Asian dust on mortality independent of particulate matter (PM) in western Japan., Methods: We obtained daily mean concentrations of Asian dust using Light Detection and Ranging measurements and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations (approximately PM(8)) during March 2005 to December 2010. We then evaluated city-specific associations of Asian dust and SPM with daily mortality using a time-series analysis targeting 1 379 052 people aged 65 or above living in 47 cities. The city-specific results were then combined with a Bayesian-hierarchical model., Results: Asian dust did not modify the effects of SPM on mortality. Meanwhile, Asian dust was adversely associated with mortality independent of SPM. The excess risk following a 10 μ/m(3) increase in mean of the current to the previous 2 days Asian dust concentration was 0.6% (95% CI 0.1 to 1.1) for heart disease, 0.8% (95% CI 0.1 to 1.6) for ischaemic heart disease, 2.1% (95% CI 0.3 to 3.9) for arrhythmia and 0.5% (95% CI 0.2 to 0.8) for pneumonia mortality. Furthermore, the effects of Asian dust were stronger in northern areas close to the Eurasian continent (source of Asian dust)., Conclusions: Asian dust had adverse effects on circulatory and respiratory mortality independent of PM.