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The effects of global climate change have accelerated the melting of glaciers and the decline of sea ice coverage in the Arctic. In tandem with advancements in icebreaker and other shipping technologies, the navigability of Arctic shipping routes has dramatically improved. Given the geographical advantages of the Arctic region in terms of shipping routes and resource potential, various countries have implemented initiatives to secure a foothold in the Arctic shipping industry. However, the current shipping industry has not yet achieved the ideal state of netzero emissions, and the rapid increase in Arctic shipping has brought serious and even irreversible negative impacts on the Arctic environment. The study employs document and policy analyses to conduct an in-depth examination of legal and policy documents related to Arctic shipping, especially those from the past 5 years, systematically outlining the relevant legal and policy frameworks, as well as their historical context. At the same time, interdisciplinary research methods are utilized to comprehensively assess the new challenges. It is concluded that against the backdrop of the Arctic region's unique and fragile environment, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Arctic Council are introducing increasingly stringent regulations for Arctic shipping, posing a complex array of challenges for the industry. Not only must it navigate the mounting pressure of emission reduction policies and intensifying public scrutiny but it must also overcome a multitude of complex technical and operational hurdles. Consequently, the joint efforts of the international community are essential to promote the sustainable development and emission reduction goals of the Arctic shipping industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intermodality is regarded as one way of achieving more sustainable transport solutions. To make intermodal transport the preferred solution among shippers, it must be attractive according to the concept of generalized transport costs. An extended model for generalized transport costs is developed which includes elements important for comparing maritime transport solutions in the Artic. This framework forms the basis for a principal discussion on the conditions that make one transport solution preferable to another within the context of maritime logistics. This model is then applied to the context of the Northeast Passage to discuss the necessary requirements for making an intermodal transport solution attractive relative to the current main route from Northeast Asia to Northwest Europe through the Suez Canal. Even though intermodality could be preferable in principle, current solutions cannot compete with either Arctic routes using unimodal solutions with high ice-class vessels or with the Suez route. Due to uncertainty and limited empirical evidence, a sensitivity analysis is conducted, focusing on the variables with the greatest impact on the result. Policymakers and stakeholders can consider the findings to improve transport competitiveness via the Northeast Passage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amidst the intensifying impact of climate change, the extension of navigable periods along Arctic Shipping Routes (ASRs) has garnered attention as a maritime route for container vessels. The urgency to comprehend the reverberations of ASRs on the global container shipping network (GCSN) led to the development of the Latitudinal Centrality Index (LCI), which integrates latitude and centrality in maritime analysis. This index evaluates ASRs' influence across 968 port nodes within the GCSN. By exploring scenarios encompassing seasonal fluctuations over the years, this study delves into the sway of ASRs compared to a benchmark state devoid of ASR engagement. The study's revelations highlight a discovery: the assimilation of ASRs augments interconnectivity, or resilience, within the GCSN. The GCSN thrives as a cohesive and adaptable entity upon full integration of ASRs, indicating a promising trajectory for global container shipping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Intermodality is regarded as one way of achieving more sustainable transport solutions. To make intermodal transport the preferred solution among shippers, it must be attractive according to the concept of generalized transport costs. An extended model for generalized transport costs is developed which includes elements important for comparing maritime transport solutions in the Artic. This framework forms the basis for a principal discussion on the conditions that make one transport solution preferable to another within the context of maritime logistics. This model is then applied to the context of the Northeast Passage to discuss the necessary requirements for making an intermodal transport solution attractive relative to the current main route from Northeast Asia to Northwest Europe through the Suez Canal. Even though intermodality could be preferable in principle, current solutions cannot compete with either Arctic routes using unimodal solutions with high ice-class vessels or with the Suez route. Due to uncertainty and limited empirical evidence, a sensitivity analysis is conducted, focusing on the variables with the greatest impact on the result. Policymakers and stakeholders can consider the findings to improve transport competitiveness via the Northeast Passage.

Resilience theory is introduced in the present study to model the capability of the Arctic shipping system to defend against various risks. For this purpose, a novel methodology integrating a Bayesian network (BN), system dynamics (SD), and dissipative structure is proposed to quantitatively describe the dynamic resilience of the Arctic shipping system. The evolution of the system resilience with time is simulated, based on which the graphical results and discussion are devoted to revealing the dynamic evolution mechanism by integrating the three aspects of triggering conditions, priorities, and driving forces. Overall, the proposed resilience evolution model is suitable for complex systems with uncertainty and nonlinearity, and the results show that the proposed methodology can contribute to formulating future strategies and decisions to guarantee the safety of Arctic shipping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The retreating ice coverage and reduced (ice) thickness scientifically recorded in the wider Arctic region, during the last few decades, are transforming it into a more accessible operating environment. Vessels engaged in maritime transport activities can now navigate the already established routes for more extended periods each year. With this background, Arctic shipping routes have attracted the interest of academics and maritime stakeholders because of the potential distance reduction compared to other existing (and often viewed as) conventional routes utilizing the Suez and Panama Canals today. However, the existing Arctic shipping environment requires specific future safety investments. This paper intends to provide input towards better-informed decision-making and identification of priority investments needed to improve the level of safety related to the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP). A multi-attribute decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank the various proposed safety investments. The results indicate that “infrastructure and facility” should come first, followed by “personnel,” “technology,” “measure,” and “management” investments. Ice monitoring and weather forecasting, strengthening Arctic seafaring expertise, and icebreakers stand out as the top three most important future investments required in the region.

ABSTRACTThe Northeast Passage (NEP) holds immense potential as a link for maritime transport activities between Europe and Asia, primarily due to the extended sailing season resulting from global warming. However, the economic viability of the Arctic shipping route remains disputed. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the feasibility of container transportation along the NEP compared to that along the Suez Canal Route (SCR) by using current (2021–2023) and future (2025–2065) scenarios. The results reveal that larger vessels have lower CO2 emissions and costs than small vessels in the NEP, but the costs for larger vessels in the NEP are still higher than those in the SCR throughout both summer and winter seasons under the current scenario. The outcomes also show that a progressive carbon tax scheme will increase the unit shipping costs for all routes in the future scenario, with the NEP being most economically viable during summer. Furthermore, the extended navigable period (NP) bolsters the NEP’s economic cost advantage during a seasonal period. Nevertheless, from a year-round operations standpoint, the NEP remains less competitive than the SCR before 2065. The conclusions drawn from this research serve as a significant resource for decision-makers when formulating operational plans.

Arctic shipping activities are increasing in the context of sea ice decline. However, research gaps persist in studying recent Arctic shipping activities across various vessel types and their connection with sea ice conditions. Utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and sea ice satellite observations between 2015 and 2020, these matters are delved into this study. A discernible overall growth trend in Arctic traffic occupancy occurs from 2015 to 2020 during summer and autumn. Excluding passenger ships, the traffic occupancy trend for each ship type closely parallels that for all ships. Variations in traffic occupancy along the Northeast Passage dominate that in the entire Arctic. As sea ice diminishes, both Arctic traffic occupancy and its variability noticeably increase. Further examination of the relationship between shipping activities and ice conditions reveals that increased traffic occupancy corresponds significantly to diminishing sea ice extent, and the constraint imposed by sea ice on Arctic traffic occupancy weakens, while the 6-year AIS data could lead to uncertainties. In summary, as the Arctic sea ice declines continuously, not only sea ice but also additional social, military, and environmental factors constraining marine activities should be considered in the future operation of Arctic shipping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to diminishing ice shelves in the Arctic, no doubt caused by climate change, previously unnavigable marine spaces are opening up, which in turn may provide new maritime routes. The shipping and maritime industry may capitalise on these routes more in the future as they provide shorter sailing times, and may assist with increasing oil and gas exploration and extraction in the region. However, increased maritime expansion in the Arctic comes with a number of unique risks and hazards for the insured and insurer. This opinion therefore seeks to discuss the implications of the multitude of risks that are associated with Arctic shipping from a marine insurance perspective and to highlight some of the gaps in existing regulatory frameworks. It is argued that marine insurers require improved data and risk management methodologies in order to better calculate the premiums of Hull & Machinery (H&M) and Protection & Indemnity (P&I) insurance policies for ships travelling through the Arctic. Until such time as these risks can be adequately assessed, evaluated, and managed by insurers; which of course is extremely difficult, due to the extreme environment, the unpredictability of climate change, a lack of key data, and the complexity of the various scenarios that can unfold in the Arctic environment, the practical viability of Arctic shipping remains doubtful. To date, insurers have paid out more in ship damage that has occurred in the Arctic than they have collected in premiums, which in itself is problematic. This situation may change in the future if Arctic shipping grows, and if it does the insurance market will no doubt, need to respond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses several vulnerabilities in the maritime transportation system of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The vulnerabilities discussed are already impacting transport and logistics operations on the NSR. These vulnerabilities have greatly increased as a result of Western technological and economic sanctions on Russia and the subsequent departure of Western companies from Russia, where they were previously providers of critical supplies, logistics services, and investments. The cumulative impacts of these vulnerabilities will make the NSR maritime transportation system less efficient and reliable and more prone to failures, reducing operational and environmental standards, impacting safety and increasing the environmental impact of NSR shipping. Russia needs to find suitable replacements for Western technology and services. Chinese companies will likely try to fill the gap left by the departure of Western companies to promote the continuous production of Russian Arctic commodities for export to China.

The melting of Arctic ice has increased the value of Arctic shipping, making research on the Arctic route a popular topic. However, ships navigating this route will likely encounter randomly distributed sea ice, which poses significant safety hazards to local path planning. The Dynamic Window Approach (DWA) is a suitable method for local path planning, but the DWA results in large ship rotation angles, increasing navigation risk. This study proposes a novel fuzzy control path planning algorithm based on scale factors to address this issue. The proposed algorithm combines a stability fuzzy controller with a collision risk controller to carry out adaptive control of DWA. Two scale factors are defined to improve fuzzy control based on the overall and obstacle avoidance phases. Results show that the proposed algorithm significantly reduces the rotation angle of DWA, improves the effect by 19.52%, shortens distance and time, and increases safety when encountering sea ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northeast Passage (NEP) holds immense potential as a link for maritime transport activities between Europe and Asia, primarily due to the extended sailing season resulting from global warming. However, the economic viability of the Arctic shipping route remains disputed. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the feasibility of container transportation along the NEP compared to that along the Suez Canal Route (SCR) by using current (2021-2023) and future (2025-2065) scenarios. The results reveal that larger vessels have lower CO2 emissions and costs than small vessels in the NEP, but the costs for larger vessels in the NEP are still higher than those in the SCR throughout both summer and winter seasons under the current scenario. The outcomes also show that a progressive carbon tax scheme will increase the unit shipping costs for all routes in the future scenario, with the NEP being most economically viable during summer. Furthermore, the extended navigable period (NP) bolsters the NEP's economic cost advantage during a seasonal period. Nevertheless, from a year-round operations standpoint, the NEP remains less competitive than the SCR before 2065. The conclusions drawn from this research serve as a significant resource for decision-makers when formulating operational plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice, one of the most dominant barriers to Arctic shipping, has decreased dramatically over the past four decades. Arctic maritime transport is hereupon growing in recent years. To produce a long-term assessment of trans-Arctic accessibility, we systematically revisit the daily Arctic navigability with a view to the combined effects of sea ice thickness and concentration throughout the period 1979–2020. The general trends of Navigable Windows (NW) in the Northeast Passage show that the number of navigable days is steadily growing and reached 89±16 days for Open Water (OW) ships and 163±19 days for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships in the 2010s, despite high interannual and interdecadal variability in the NWs. More consecutive NWs have emerged annually for both OW ships and PC6 ships since 2005 because of the faster sea ice retreat. Since the 1980s, the number of simulated Arctic routes has continuously increased, and optimal navigability exists in these years of record-low sea ice extent (e.g., 2012 and 2020). Summertime navigability in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, on the other hand, varies dramatically due to changing sea ice conditions. This systematic assessment of Arctic navigability provides a reference for better projecting the future trans-Arctic shipping routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining proper locations to establish emergency response facilities is a critical strategic element of pollution preparedness and response planning for oil spills in remote areas. Many location-allocation models are available in the literature, but Arctic contexts such as remoteness and environmental sensitivities are still inadequately investigated while building optimization models. A Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) based optimization model is developed to devise a location-allocation problem: maximizing weighted spill coverage considering spill size, environmental sensitivity, and response time. Strategic decisions - e.g. allocation of stockpiling resources to resource stations and which response stations to open - are incorporated into the model as decision variables. Input parameters of the model are estimated using numerical and geospatial data of potential oil spills and response stations. The model is illustrated for hypothetical oil spill scenarios in the Canadian Arctic. The model provides optimal allocation of resources and recommends best-suited locations to build response facilities. Data visualization tools including Network Diagrams and sensitivity analysis on different model configurations, show the adequacy of the proposed mathematical modelling approach to solve the given problem. Multiple facility locations have been compared to cover all possible oil spills along Arctic shipping routes, further revealing a few better locations considering realistic constraints. Decision makers can use such optimization modelling information – e.g., how many stations to build in the Arctic to adequately cover potential oil spills – to aid strategic decision-making of maritime shipping.

Russia published a series of documents from 2018 to 2022 indicating its desire to transform the Northern Sea Route (NSR) into a globally competitive international shipping route due to its awareness of the importance of the NSR for the socio-economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. This article examines the evolution of Russian policy through a regulatory analysis combined with an empirical analysis of shipping along the NSR over the period 20182022, as well as the impact of Western sanctions. The aim of the article is to examine the viability of Russia’s new infrastructure plan for the NSR, published in August 2022. The analysis of Russia’s policy towards the NSR suggests that Russia needs to review its policy in relation to the imposed Western sanctions. This would entail a new focus on revitalising the shipbuilding industry. The targets set earlier, and then in 2022, for shipping cargo on the NSR should be redefined taking into account current realities. The practical significance of the article is in its use by policymakers engaged in the development of the NSR and researchers of Arctic shipping.

The growth of Arctic shipping requires effective tools to assess the appropriateness of existing practices on safety and resilience levels, especially in the enforcement of the Polar Code. Understanding such, in this study, we develop a resilience index using the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Data collection for the index's implementation started during a research voyage along the Northwest Passage in Canada. It resulted in 61 valid responses, upon which the relative importance and the level of satisfaction of resilience builders were investigated. The findings indicate that factors that rank high on importance are, in many cases, not that high on satisfaction. This presents dilemmas regarding the effectiveness of the current practices in promoting safe and resilient Arctic shipping management practices. This study fills an important gap in the monitoring of safety and resilience practices in Arctic shipping. In turn, this affects the future actions and research of researchers, stakeholders, and right-holders in the Arctic area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors analyzed the navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and developed the pathfinding algorithm for its strategic assessment. It creates a framework connecting weather observations with shipping operational parameters: travel speed, travel time, travel distance, the necessity of icebreaker escort. It is based on the A* algorithm, the Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS) methodology, and empirical relationships between ship's speed and environmental data. The idea is to minimize travel time since sailing through areas with severe weather conditions requires speed reduction. The objective function finds the fastest safe path with minimal icebreaker escort. We used 2019–2020 environmental data to test the algorithm and analyzed daily optimal NSR transit routes for Eastbound and Westbound directions. It was shown that environmental parameters significantly affect the vessel's path, while ice parameters make the largest contribution. Depending on the ship's ice class and sailing season, it takes between 11 and 38 days to complete the entire route. All obtained operational parameters are valuable for assessing transportation costs, profitability, and riskiness of NSR. We provide their seasonal, monthly, and weekly values, and statistical parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The opening of the Arctic Sea routes ushers in many opportunities due to the melting of the Arctic Sea ice. The International Maritime Organization has introduced the Polar Code for shipping and training of seafarers. Follow up by regulatory authorities of incidents along with the Northern Sea Route and in-creasing ship casualties in the Arctic region have been analyzed, including the adequacy of existing regula-tions. The author’s opinion is that the inadequate oversight mechanism brings out a need for governments of the Arctic, especially in Russia, to examine the adequacy of measures undertaken, including regulation to implement the Polar code, associated infrastructure in the Arctic for safe navigation and the current state of search and rescue. The challenges in implementing the Polar Code and the necessity for independent maritime regulatory authorities and sharing information relating to the analysis of incidents are discussed. The practical significance of the article is in its use by policymakers and researchers working on transport policy and safety of Arctic navigation, and also for educational use at universities.

Arctic shipping activities are increasing in the context of sea ice decline. However, research gaps persist in studying recent Arctic shipping activities across various vessel types and their connection with sea ice conditions. Utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and sea ice satellite observations between 2015 and 2020, these matters are delved into this study. A discernible overall growth trend in Arctic traffic occupancy occurs from 2015 to 2020 during summer and autumn. Excluding passenger ships, the traffic occupancy trend for each ship type closely parallels that for all ships. Variations in traffic occupancy along the Northeast Passage dominate that in the entire Arctic. As sea ice diminishes, both Arctic traffic occupancy and its variability noticeably increase. Further examination of the relationship between shipping activities and ice conditions reveals that increased traffic occupancy corresponds significantly to diminishing sea ice extent, and the constraint imposed by sea ice on Arctic traffic occupancy weakens, while the 6-year AIS data could lead to uncertainties. In summary, as the Arctic sea ice declines continuously, not only sea ice but also additional social, military, and environmental factors constraining marine activities should be considered in the future operation of Arctic shipping.

The safe and efficient navigation of ships traversing the Northern Sea Route demands accurate information regarding sea ice concentration. However, the sea ice concentration forecasts employed to support such navigation are often flawed. To address this challenge, this study advances a statistical interpolation method aimed at reducing errors arising from traditional interpolation approaches. Additionally, this study introduces an autoregressive integrated moving average model, derived from ERA5 reanalysis data, for short-term sea ice concentration forecasts along the Northern Sea Route. The validity of the model has been confirmed through comparison with ensemble experiments from the Coupling Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, yielding reliable outcomes. The route availability is assessed on the basis of the sea ice concentration forecasts, indicating that the route will be available in the upcoming years. The proposed statistical models are also shown the capacity to facilitate effective management of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes in the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations in the Arctic make it difficult to predict ship speeds in ice and, thus, the voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative Arctic routes based on accurate environmental condition modeling is required. In this context, this paper presents a holistic approach that considers the major voyage-related costs of a trans-Arctic route as an alternative to the conventional routes via the Suez Canal Route (SCR) for existing merchant ships. This tool is based on high-fidelity models of ship performance, metocean forecasting, and a voyage optimization algorithm. Case studies are performed based on a general cargo vessel in operation to quantify realistic expenses inclusive of all the major operational, fuel, and voyage costs of the specific voyages. A comparison is made between the total costs of the trans-Arctic route and SCR for different seasons, which proves the economic feasibility of the trans-Arctic route. Overall, this work can provide valuable insights to help policymakers as well as shipbuilders, owners, and operators to assess the potential cost-effectiveness and sustainability of future Arctic shipping, thereby better developing future strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines different integrated management frameworks and area-based measures in Canada's integrated ocean management regime, including their definitions, features and practices. It explicitly analyzes ma-rine spatial planning (MSP) and its practice in Canada's Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic coasts. Case studies, including the Eastern Scotian Shelf Integrated Management (ESSIM) initiative, Pacific North Coast Integrated Manage-ment Area (PNCIMA) initiative, and Marine Plan Partnership (MaPP), show that MSP has brought additional value to comprehensive ocean planning and facilitated integrated shipping governance. Arctic marine traffic gov-ernance requires an integrated and holistic framework to address the inti-mate relationship and complex interaction between humans and the envi-ronment. The potential application of MSP in developing and governing the Northern Low Impact Shipping Corridors initiative is examined. MSP is con-sidered as a framework or an approach to inform better decision-making for the Corridors initiative from five perspectives: 1) improving interdepart-mental and cross-jurisdictional collaboration; 2) enhancing Inuit engage-ment; 3) encouraging knowledge co-production; 4) supporting data collec-tion and spatial analysis; and 5) facilitating implementation and adaptation of the Corridor initiative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2018 The People’s Republic of China (PRC) released its Arctic policy and articulated its position, principles, and goals as a “near-Arctic state.” In the years since, China has become a central focus of the growing academic and professional discourse surrounding the emerging Arctic and has positioned itself as a consequential actor in regional affairs. This article examines the opportunities and limitations for China in the High North by focusing on its four key drivers for Arctic engagement: resource extraction, international shipping, scientific pursuits, and international prestige. This article finds that while China’s involvement in Arctic affairs is growing, there are still significant roadblocks to its ambitions, which it will need to overcome in order to reach its goal of being recognized as an Arctic power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic ship traffic has increased significantly due to continuous sea ice loss and resource extraction. The shipping sector is an important contributor to atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) and sulphur dioxide (SO 2), and an increase in ship activity will lead to significant increases in these emissions. However, there is a lack of studies linking ship activities and the associated emissions with recent Arctic resource development activities. This study aims to assess the relationship between sector-specific developments (fishing, tourism, trade, oil, gas, mining, and "others") and ship traffic, and the associated emissions from 2013 to 2023 along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), using time series analysis and linear regression. In addition, the relationships were further used to predict future ship-associated emissions by 2030, utilizing a combination of regression models and Holt-Winters' trend and seasonal forecast. Results showed a 61% increase in distance travelled, 115% increase in NO x emissions, and 68% increase in SO 2 emissions from 2013 to 2023. A strong positive linear relationship between oil and gas production and the ship-associated emissions of NO x and SO 2 was found, with a coefficient of determination as high as 0.97. The oil sector emerged as the largest contributor to emissions from 2017 onward. Projections indicate that NO x and SO 2 emissions will be more than doubled, reaching 12,400 and 1200 tonnes, respectively, by 2030, of which the oil sector accounts for 45 and 61% of the total emissions. This highlights the need for further emissions reduction measures, especially with expanding Arctic oil projects, in order to mitigate the environmental impact of increased resource-driven shipping along the NSR. • Arctic ship traffic and the associated emissions have steadily increased since 2013. • Ship emissions has a strong positive correlation with oil and gas production. • Oil-related shipping is the main driver to increased emissions of NO x and SO 2. • NO x and SO 2 emissions may more than double by 2030. • Projections highlights the urgency for further emissions reduction measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate warms and modern technologies advance, the Artic waters may offer new opportunities for shipping, notably in the Euro-Asian Arctic. This paper presents five alternative scenarios for commercial destination and transit shipping in the region until 2050. Using a pluralistic backcasting approach to foresight, these scenarios were co-created by the authors of this paper together with thirteen experts in relevant fields from seven different countries. The scenario-building exercise integrated global and regional factors and demonstrated that the future of commercial shipping in the Arctic is subject to vast uncertainties in global politics and global development trajectory alongside the sea ice conditions and technological progress. While the current volumes of commercial shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic are insignificant, its future will largely depend on the development of these factors and how they will interface with each other. Plausible futures of commercial shipping in the region range from extensive international transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route to restricted shipping by vessels with Arctic flags only or even no shipping, to shipping over the transpolar route. The scenarios presented here can be used to inform national policymaking as well as to support strategic decision-making within corporate entities operating in related industries. • Pluralistic backcasting led to five alternative plausible scenarios for shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic until 2050. • Global politics, development trajectory, climate, and technology are key factors to determine the future of shipping. • Plausible futures include extensive transit through the Northern Sea Route and shipping over the Transpolar Route. • Restricted shipping, no shipping, and shipping focused on exports of resources are also plausible. • Accounting for future uncertainty is essential for robust national and corporate planning involving shipping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region has been experiencing an extensive transformation and several economic opportunities have emerged due to the shrinking sea ice. While the Arctic Ocean has become more convenient for navigation, both Arctic and non-Arctic states have updated their Arctic policies according to recent developments. There has been a substantial increase in the number of studies studying three main Arctic sea routes: Northwest Passage (NWP), Northeast Passage (NEP), and Trans-Polar Sea Route (TSR). Albeit the existence of contradictory results, the interest in Arctic shipping presents a growing trend. The Turkish shipyards increasingly participate in tenders as well. While Çelik Tekne Shipyard stands out as the first Turkish shipyard to win the shipbuilding tender in accordance with polar conditions, a significant increase has been observed in the number of shipyards within the Arctic shipping tenders since 2018. In addition to Atlas and Akdeniz Shipyards, producing ice-class vehicles in accordance with the requirements of the Polar Code, it is possible to multiply examples from Beşiktaş Shipyard, which built ice class fuel ships, Sanmar Shipyard, which won the icebreaker tugboat tender, and Sefine and Kuzey Star Shipyards, which participated in the icebreaker tenders. Besides, the participation of Turkish shipyards as sole contractors in the Russian Arctic as of 2021 indicates their determination to become active actors in the Arctic shipping industry. Accordingly, this paper discusses the opportunities and challenges of Arctic shipping based on the Turkish case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the cooperation between China and Russia in the field of Arctic shipping. The author compares the tasks of the Northern Sea Route development and the Ice Silk Road construction. This allows identifying the factors that promote and hinder cooperation. The author examines the specifics of the Sino-Russian format of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction that helps to mitigate contradictions between the national interests of the two states. The author examines the current cooperation between Russia and China in the field of Arctic shipping, identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in key areas of interaction (SWOT analysis). The author concludes that differences between interests and status of the two states in the Arctic provides Russia a strategic advantage in its relations with the PRC. This balance may be maintained within the framework of a multilateral cooperation. At the same time, cooperation with China in the field of marine security is promising in case of keeping existing power balance. In conclusion, the author suggests areas for cooperation to increase the effectiveness of bilateral interaction in the field of Arctic shipping.

Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes in the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations in the Arctic make it difficult to predict ship speeds in ice and, thus, the voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative Arctic routes based on accurate environmental condition modeling is required. In this context, this paper presents a holistic approach that considers the major voyage-related costs of a trans-Arctic route as an alternative to the conventional routes via the Suez Canal Route (SCR) for existing merchant ships. This tool is based on high-fidelity models of ship performance, metocean forecasting, and a voyage optimization algorithm. Case studies are performed based on a general cargo vessel in operation to quantify realistic expenses inclusive of all the major operational, fuel, and voyage costs of the specific voyages. A comparison is made between the total costs of the trans-Arctic route and SCR for different seasons, which proves the economic feasibility of the trans-Arctic route. Overall, this work can provide valuable insights to help policymakers as well as shipbuilders, owners, and operators to assess the potential cost-effectiveness and sustainability of future Arctic shipping, thereby better developing future strategies.

The safe and efficient navigation of ships traversing the Northern Sea Route demands accurate information regarding sea ice concentration. However, the sea ice concentration forecasts employed to support such navigation are often flawed. To address this challenge, this study advances a statistical interpolation method aimed at reducing errors arising from traditional interpolation approaches. Additionally, this study introduces an autoregressive integrated moving average model, derived from ERA5 reanalysis data, for short-term sea ice concentration forecasts along the Northern Sea Route. The validity of the model has been confirmed through comparison with ensemble experiments from the Coupling Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, yielding reliable outcomes. The route availability is assessed on the basis of the sea ice concentration forecasts, indicating that the route will be available in the upcoming years. The proposed statistical models are also shown the capacity to facilitate effective management of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route.

The grounding of a 400-meter long container vessel, called Ever Given, in the Suez Canal blocked the busiest shipping lane, which is responsible for 12% of seaborne trade, for 6 days. Some shipping companies had to divert their vessels and they had to take a much longer route around Africa to reach European ports. The concerned shipping industry started to look for alternative sea route to the Suez Canal with lesser risk of blockage, without a need to go around Africa. Such routes, which connect the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, exist in the Arctic and the warming of the global climate makes them more accessible over time but the assessment of their viability requires a multifaceted analysis based on available professional navigational publications, scientific papers, and knowledge of polar shipping realities. Several nautical aspects are taken into account with the purpose of choosing a polar route that is most suitable as an alternative to the Suez Canal. Three routes are under consideration. One of them is the Northern Sea Route in the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean, along the coast of the Russian Federation. The second route is the Northwest Passage through the western part of the Arctic, passing waters belonging to Greenland, Canada, and the United States. The third one passes near the North Pole, a prospective route that may become available for commercial shipping in the future due to Arctic ice shrinkage, and it is known as the Transpolar Route. Analysis of these routes unambiguously point to the Northern Sea Route as the only viable option. Most prospective alternatives to the Suez Canal are technically feasible with the new generation of cargo vessels and they are experiencing a growth in maritime traffic together with a steady development of associated infrastructure. The existing simplified analyses of the transit costs, assuming strait passage in polar waters without any course deviation and the additional fuel that is burnt to overcome increased friction during passage in ice, shows that under present conditions that the Suez Canal Route is still cheaper than any polar transit and, moreover, offers year-round availability. It cannot be ruled out that the upcoming warming of the Arctic climate, and a lowering of the transit tariffs by the Russian Federation may tip the balance in favor of the Northern Sea Route. Presented here is an analysis of the competitiveness of the Arctic Routes in comparison to the Suez Canal from the perspective of the mariner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is rapidly transforming into a navigable ocean because of global warming. The retreat of ice extent and widened marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Arctic made it possible for non-icebreaking commercial vessels to sail into Arctic waters where ice floes of various concentrations and thicknesses exist. The main objective of this work is to estimate the performance of a non-icebreaking cargo ship that sails in the Arctic marginal ice zone. Different numerical approaches are utilized to calculate ice-induced resistance and compared with those proposed in empirical formulas. The comparison shows that the resistances predicted by the two numerical tools differ obviously and are in general smaller in comparison with the ones calculated from the empirical formulas under lower ice concentrations. The total resistances are further calculated to predict the required propulsion powers for the case study vessel to enable navigation under severe ice conditions. This work highlights the significance of developing new and more sophisticated tools for estimation of ship's ice performance in MIZ, which is the prerequisite to enable non-icebreaking cargo fleet to utilize the Arctic shipping lane. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the competitiveness of various autonomous ship categories for container shipping in the Arctic route. We propose a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework using four ship categories as alternatives and eight criteria for competitiveness evaluation. We analyse collected data using the Best–Worst Method (BWM), one of the recently developed MCDM methods. The findings reveal that operating expenses, navigation aspects, and environmental protection are the three most important criteria for deploying autonomous ships in the Arctic route. Among the three investigated autonomous ships alternatives, the semi-autonomous ship operated from a shore control centre (SCC) is prioritized for Arctic shipping in the foreseeable future, when benchmarked against the conventional ship. The SCC-controlled semi-autonomous ship alternative is competitive in the majority of the considered criteria including operating expenses, capital expenses, navigation, ship-shore and ship–ship communication, search and rescue, and environmental protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of the opening Arctic waters, Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) can be used as a shortcut between Asian and European ports, which may bring considerable economic benefits. Due to the harsh environment and substantial costs, it is difficult to construct many fulcrum ports along the Russian Arctic coast, which provide support services for ships navigating the NEP. A multi-criteria decision model is hence constructed to select fulcrum ports among candidates to support Arctic shipping through the NEP. Based on the model, the evidential reasoning (ER) approach is used to aggregate quantitative data and qualitative expert judgments to generate distributed assessments for candidate ports, as well as modeling uncertainties such as incompleteness and ignorance in the assessment of candidate ports. Their suitability as fulcrum ports are prioritized according to the utilities. The results show that Pevek, Sabetta, and Murmansk are the ideal fulcrum ports for the eastern, central, and western section, respectively, of the Russian Arctic coast. The associated policy recommendations include prioritizing the improvement of selected fulcrum ports, attaching importance to promising candidate ports, updating outdated infrastructure, and implementing more related projects. A sensitivity analysis conducted in this study validates the feasibility and reasonability of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of detailed statistics shows remarkable fluctuations in the volume and composition of voyages on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the northern coast of Russia since international use began in 2010. There has been strong growth in destination shipping between the Arctic and ports outside the region, but transit shipping between the Pacific and the Atlantic has not experienced the growth many had anticipated. Explanations are found in international market conditions as well as in the management of the NSR, with important lessons for the future development of different shipping segments. Shipping companies from several countries took part in the period up to 2019, but they seem to have become less central in the current phase of NSR shipping, which is dominated by the transport of hydrocarbons out of the Arctic. Russia expects international transit to pick up later. However, Russia alone cannot determine the volume of international traffic: it is the international shipping industry that will assess the balance of factors and conditions, and conclude if and when the shorter Arctic routes are safe, efficient, reliable, environmentally sound and economically viable in comparison with other routes.

The numerous Artic port industrial complex projects are currently marked by a lack of both railroad and road infrastructures and require a heavy cargo shipping service. Yet, navigation in the Arctic implies facing harsh sailing conditions. To prevent risk arising from this singular region, the IMO Polar Code imposes mandatory tools as the Polar Ship Certificate and suggests others such as POLARIS. At the crossroads of container and tramp market, scholars have paid little attention to the transportation of heavy cargo. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of the Polar Code policy framework and its tools on the management of a highly strategic project. To do so, we shall rely on the case of the transport and assembly of the Yamal LNG plant modules. Yamal LNG started its production in late 2019 and has already produced 19 million tons per year. The paper contemplates a ship routing and scheduling optimization model that considers different fleet types and ice conditions and applies the POLARIS Risk Index Outcome (RIO) in Arctic waters. Even though the modules are required on site in summer, due to the extreme weather conditions and limited accessibility in winter, our results highlight that the use of Polar Class vessels allowing year-round navigation in Arctic waters is critical to ensure the success of such projects. Indeed, Polar Class 3 vessels, as ships with the greatest possible "polarseaworthiness", are capable of significantly reducing delays in project's completion. It also emphasizes the paramount role of the Polar Code and related tools in the shipping risk management of Arctic infrastructure projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how recent changes in Russia's legal regulations affected shipping via the Northern Sea Route. The paper discusses whether these regulations are helpful for making the NSR a popular international transport corridor or, on the contrary, may lead to its isolation and retaining its status of Russia's national seaway? This study also reviews Russian legal and practical measures to implement the International Maritime Organization's Polar Code. The author concludes that despite some legal inconsistencies, the lack of a proper infrastructure and residual environmental problems, the NSR will remain an important priority for the Russian future strategy in the Arctic region. The NSR is viewed by Moscow as an effective instrument to develop the Russian Arctic both domestically and internationally. However, Moscow still faces a dilemma: On the one hand, it wants to keep its control over the NSR and support Russian shipbuilding industry and shipping companies. On the other hand, the Kremlin is willing to open up this passage for international cooperation and integrate it to the global transportation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The receding perennial ice sheets over the polar north have fueled interest in the possibilities for new shipping routes through Arctic waters as well as concern over growing incentives for competition in the region. While these incentives are likely to become more prevalent as Arctic ice continues to melt, to date the existing institutions dedicated to promoting cooperation in the Arctic have largely proven themselves up to the task. We examine four broad developments—increased access to new sea lanes of communication and maritime resources, ongoing disputes over Arctic claims and growing militarization of the Arctic, weakening cohesion in Arctic institutions of governance, and growing extralegal patterns of behavior among Arctic states—which, taken together, challenge the capacity of existing Arctic and maritime institutions to promote cooperation in the region. Each of these trends is troubling in isolation, but when viewed together, their effects show that the behaviors incentivized by an increasingly accessible Arctic have counterintuitively worsened the prospects for cooperation and international commerce in the Far North. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hudson Strait is seasonally ice covered and is the only part of the Canadian Arctic where winter shipping takes place. Yet, very little is known about the thickness and dynamics of this ice pack. During winter operations, icebreakers often face besetting events, which can slow or immobilize vessels for up to a few days. Using in situ observations of ice draft and drift collected by moored sonars at two sites in Hudson Strait from 2005 to 2009, we provide the first detailed analysis of sea ice dynamics within Hudson Strait and provide insights into the processes that dictate ice thickness and internal pressure along this unique winter shipping corridor. Prevailing northwesterly winds drive south‐southeastward ice motion within the Strait, maintaining polynyas along Baffin Island on the north side of the Strait, and compressing the ice pack against Nunavik on the southern side. As a result, ice on the northern side remains young and thin throughout winter (x¯March ${\bar{x}}_{\text{March}}$ = 1.25 m), whereas ice on the southern side is older, heavily deformed and ∼60% thicker by March (x¯March ${\bar{x}}_{\text{March}}$ = 2.01 m). Intermittent reversals to southeasterly winds decompress the ice pack on the southern side, increasing the presence of leads and easing navigation through the ice pack to the port in Deception Bay. The spatial variability in sea ice thickness elucidated by the moorings is corroborated at the regional scale using satellite observations from ICESat‐2 during winter 2019, 2020, and 2021, and complimented by high‐resolution fields of sea ice motion during winter 2021. Plain Language Summary: Hudson Strait is located in northeastern Canada, separating northern Quebec (Nunavik) from Baffin Island, and is seasonally covered by sea ice from December to June. The Strait is a key shipping corridor in the Canadian Arctic, and while most of the shipping occurs during the open water season (July–October), two ice breaking bulk carriers operate through the ice pack during winter. The vessels have a sufficient Polar Class rating (Polar Class 4, rated for year‐round operation in thick first year ice) for the regional ice pack, but ridges and pressured ice regularly slow the ships or cause them to become immobilized within the ice, causing delays and potentially hazardous conditions. Within this paper, we use in situ observations of ice thickness collected from oceanographic moorings between 2005 and 2009 to characterize ice thickness within Hudson Strait and analyze the dynamic processes that compress the ice pack and create ridges along the shipping corridor. Our results show that the prevailing northwesterly winds force the ice pack to the southeast, or away from Baffin Island and against Nunavik. As a result, thinner ice and open water are maintained on the northern side of the Strait along Baffin Island, and pressured thicker ice forms on the southern side of the Strait along Nunavik. Beyond shipping, these sea ice processes also influence the oceanography and biology of Hudson Strait, where an estimated 80,000 marine mammals and uncounted seabirds and seals overwinter, and Inuit communities that are located along the shores of Hudson Strait and rely on the marine environment to support a traditional lifestyle. Key Points: Prevailing northwesterly winds over Hudson Strait maintain polynyas along Baffin Island and compress the ice pack against NunavikIce on the northern side is young, thin, and undeformed, while ice on the southern side is thicker, heavily deformed and under pressureRidged and pressured ice is hazardous for winter shipping operations; reversals to southeasterly winds decompress the ice, easing navigation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]