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The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in critical applications. Conformal prediction is emerging as a theoretically sound and practically useful framework, combining flexibility with strong statistical guarantees. Its model-agnostic and distribution-free nature makes it particularly promising to address the current shortcomings of NLP systems that stem from the absence of uncertainty quantification. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of conformal prediction techniques, their guarantees, and existing applications in NLP, pointing to directions for future research and open challenges.

Quantifying uncertainty in automatically generated text is important for letting humans check potential hallucinations and making systems more reliable. Conformal prediction is an attractive framework to provide predictions imbued with statistical guarantees, however, its application to text generation is challenging since any i.i.d. assumptions are not realistic. In this paper, we bridge this gap by leveraging recent results on non-exchangeable conformal prediction, which still ensures bounds on coverage. The result, non-exchangeable conformal nucleus sampling, is a novel extension of the conformal prediction framework to generation based on nearest neighbors. Our method can be used post-hoc for an arbitrary model without extra training and supplies token-level, calibrated prediction sets equipped with statistical guarantees. Experiments in machine translation and language modeling show encouraging results in generation quality. By also producing tighter prediction sets with good coverage, we thus give a more theoretically principled way to perform sampling with conformal guarantees.

Despite the remarkable advancements in machine translation, the current sentence-level paradigm faces challenges when dealing with highly-contextual languages like Japanese. In this paper, we explore how context-awareness can improve the performance of the current Neural Machine Translation (NMT) models for English-Japanese business dialogues translation, and what kind of context provides meaningful information to improve translation. As business dialogue involves complex discourse phenomena but offers scarce training resources, we adapted a pretrained mBART model, finetuning on multi-sentence dialogue data, which allows us to experiment with different contexts. We investigate the impact of larger context sizes and propose novel context tokens encoding extra-sentential information, such as speaker turn and scene type. We make use of Conditional Cross-Mutual Information (CXMI) to explore how much of the context the model uses and generalise CXMI to study the impact of the extra-sentential context. Overall, we find that models leverage both preceding sentences and extra-sentential context (with CXMI increasing with context size) and we provide a more focused analysis on honorifics translation. Regarding translation quality, increased source-side context paired with scene and speaker information improves the model performance compared to previous work and our context-agnostic baselines, measured in BLEU and COMET metrics., Comment: MT Summit 2023, research track, link to paper in proceedings: https://aclanthology.org/2023.mtsummit-research.23/

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best $F_1$-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method., Comment: ICLR 2024

Recent advances of powerful Language Models have allowed Natural Language Generation (NLG) to emerge as an important technology that can not only perform traditional tasks like summarisation or translation, but also serve as a natural language interface to a variety of applications. As such, it is crucial that NLG systems are trustworthy and reliable, for example by indicating when they are likely to be wrong; and supporting multiple views, backgrounds and writing styles -- reflecting diverse human sub-populations. In this paper, we argue that a principled treatment of uncertainty can assist in creating systems and evaluation protocols better aligned with these goals. We first present the fundamental theory, frameworks and vocabulary required to represent uncertainty. We then characterise the main sources of uncertainty in NLG from a linguistic perspective, and propose a two-dimensional taxonomy that is more informative and faithful than the popular aleatoric/epistemic dichotomy. Finally, we move from theory to applications and highlight exciting research directions that exploit uncertainty to power decoding, controllable generation, self-assessment, selective answering, active learning and more.

Several uncertainty estimation methods have been recently proposed for machine translation evaluation. While these methods can provide a useful indication of when not to trust model predictions, we show in this paper that the majority of them tend to underestimate model uncertainty, and as a result they often produce misleading confidence intervals that do not cover the ground truth. We propose as an alternative the use of conformal prediction, a distribution-free method to obtain confidence intervals with a theoretically established guarantee on coverage. First, we demonstrate that split conformal prediction can ``correct'' the confidence intervals of previous methods to yield a desired coverage level. Then, we highlight biases in estimated confidence intervals, both in terms of the translation language pairs and the quality of translations. We apply conditional conformal prediction techniques to obtain calibration subsets for each data subgroup, leading to equalized coverage.

Although neural-based machine translation evaluation metrics, such as COMET or BLEURT, have achieved strong correlations with human judgements, they are sometimes unreliable in detecting certain phenomena that can be considered as critical errors, such as deviations in entities and numbers. In contrast, traditional evaluation metrics, such as BLEU or chrF, which measure lexical or character overlap between translation hypotheses and human references, have lower correlations with human judgements but are sensitive to such deviations. In this paper, we investigate several ways of combining the two approaches in order to increase robustness of state-of-the-art evaluation methods to translations with critical errors. We show that by using additional information during training, such as sentence-level features and word-level tags, the trained metrics improve their capability to penalize translations with specific troublesome phenomena, which leads to gains in correlation with human judgments and on recent challenge sets on several language pairs., Comment: Accepted at EAMT 2023

In the wake of responsible AI, interpretability methods, which attempt to provide an explanation for the predictions of neural models have seen rapid progress. In this work, we are concerned with explanations that are applicable to natural language processing (NLP) models and tasks, and we focus specifically on the analysis of counterfactual, contrastive explanations. We note that while there have been several explainers proposed to produce counterfactual explanations, their behaviour can vary significantly and the lack of a universal ground truth for the counterfactual edits imposes an insuperable barrier on their evaluation. We propose a new back translation-inspired evaluation methodology that utilises earlier outputs of the explainer as ground truth proxies to investigate the consistency of explainers. We show that by iteratively feeding the counterfactual to the explainer we can obtain valuable insights into the behaviour of both the predictor and the explainer models, and infer patterns that would be otherwise obscured. Using this methodology, we conduct a thorough analysis and propose a novel metric to evaluate the consistency of counterfactual generation approaches with different characteristics across available performance indicators., Comment: Accepted at Findings of ACL 2023

We present the joint contribution of IST and Unbabel to the WMT 2022 Shared Task on Quality Estimation (QE). Our team participated on all three subtasks: (i) Sentence and Word-level Quality Prediction; (ii) Explainable QE; and (iii) Critical Error Detection. For all tasks we build on top of the COMET framework, connecting it with the predictor-estimator architecture of OpenKiwi, and equipping it with a word-level sequence tagger and an explanation extractor. Our results suggest that incorporating references during pretraining improves performance across several language pairs on downstream tasks, and that jointly training with sentence and word-level objectives yields a further boost. Furthermore, combining attention and gradient information proved to be the top strategy for extracting good explanations of sentence-level QE models. Overall, our submissions achieved the best results for all three tasks for almost all language pairs by a considerable margin., Comment: WMT 2022 Quality Estimation shared task

Trainable evaluation metrics for machine translation (MT) exhibit strong correlation with human judgements, but they are often hard to interpret and might produce unreliable scores under noisy or out-of-domain data. Recent work has attempted to mitigate this with simple uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles), however these techniques (as we show) are limited in several ways -- for example, they are unable to distinguish between different kinds of uncertainty, and they are time and memory consuming. In this paper, we propose more powerful and efficient uncertainty predictors for MT evaluation, and we assess their ability to target different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To this end, we develop and compare training objectives for the COMET metric to enhance it with an uncertainty prediction output, including heteroscedastic regression, divergence minimization, and direct uncertainty prediction. Our experiments show improved results on uncertainty prediction for the WMT metrics task datasets, with a substantial reduction in computational costs. Moreover, they demonstrate the ability of these predictors to address specific uncertainty causes in MT evaluation, such as low quality references and out-of-domain data., Comment: accepted at EMNLP 2022

Negation and uncertainty modeling are long-standing tasks in natural language processing. Linguistic theory postulates that expressions of negation and uncertainty are semantically independent from each other and the content they modify. However, previous works on representation learning do not explicitly model this independence. We therefore attempt to disentangle the representations of negation, uncertainty, and content using a Variational Autoencoder. We find that simply supervising the latent representations results in good disentanglement, but auxiliary objectives based on adversarial learning and mutual information minimization can provide additional disentanglement gains., Comment: Accepted to ACL 2022. 18 pages, 7 figures. Code and data are available at https://github.com/jvasilakes/disentanglement-vae

Several neural-based metrics have been recently proposed to evaluate machine translation quality. However, all of them resort to point estimates, which provide limited information at segment level. This is made worse as they are trained on noisy, biased and scarce human judgements, often resulting in unreliable quality predictions. In this paper, we introduce uncertainty-aware MT evaluation and analyze the trustworthiness of the predicted quality. We combine the COMET framework with two uncertainty estimation methods, Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles, to obtain quality scores along with confidence intervals. We compare the performance of our uncertainty-aware MT evaluation methods across multiple language pairs from the QT21 dataset and the WMT20 metrics task, augmented with MQM annotations. We experiment with varying numbers of references and further discuss the usefulness of uncertainty-aware quality estimation (without references) to flag possibly critical translation mistakes., Comment: Findings of EMNLP 2021 v2: corrected typos (esp. Tab 5)

We present MLQE-PE, a new dataset for Machine Translation (MT) Quality Estimation (QE) and Automatic Post-Editing (APE). The dataset contains eleven language pairs, with human labels for up to 10,000 translations per language pair in the following formats: sentence-level direct assessments and post-editing effort, and word-level good/bad labels. It also contains the post-edited sentences, as well as titles of the articles where the sentences were extracted from, and the neural MT models used to translate the text.

The problem of team formation in a social network asks for a set of individuals who not only have the required skills to perform a task but who can also communicate effectively with each other. Existing work assumes that all links in a social network are positive, that is, they indicate friendship or collaboration between individuals. However, it is often the case that the network is signed, that is, it contains both positive and negative links, corresponding to friend and foe relationships. Building on the concept of structural balance, we provide definitions of compatibility between pairs of users in a signed network, and algorithms for computing it. We then define the team formation problem in signed networks, where we ask for a compatible team of individuals that can perform a task with small communication cost. We show that the problem is NP-hard even when there are no communication cost constraints, and we provide heuristic algorithms for solving it. We present experimental results with real data to investigate the properties of the different compatibility definitions, and the effectiveness of our algorithms., Comment: In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Extending Database Technology (EDBT), 2020