178 results on '"Vaupel, J.W."'
Search Results
2. A standard protocol to report discrete stage-structured demographic information
- Author
-
Gascoigne, S.J.L., Rolph, S., Sankey, D., Nidadavolu, N., Stell Pičman, A.S., Hernández, C.M., Philpott, M.E.R., Salam, A., Bernard, C., Fenollosa, E., Lee, Y.J., McLean, J., Hetti Achchige Perera, S., Spacey, O.G., Kajin, M., Vinton, A.C., Archer, C.R., Burns, J.H., Buss, D.L., Caswell, H., Che-Castaldo, J.P., Childs, D.Z., Capdevila, P., Compagnoni, A., Crone, E., Ezard, T.H.G., Hodgson, D., Knight, Tiffany, Jones, O.R., Jongejans, E., McDonald, J., Tenhumberg, B., Thomas, C.C., Tyre, A.J., Ramula, S., Stott, I., Tremblay, R.L., Wilson, P., Vaupel, J.W., Salguero-Gómez, R., Gascoigne, S.J.L., Rolph, S., Sankey, D., Nidadavolu, N., Stell Pičman, A.S., Hernández, C.M., Philpott, M.E.R., Salam, A., Bernard, C., Fenollosa, E., Lee, Y.J., McLean, J., Hetti Achchige Perera, S., Spacey, O.G., Kajin, M., Vinton, A.C., Archer, C.R., Burns, J.H., Buss, D.L., Caswell, H., Che-Castaldo, J.P., Childs, D.Z., Capdevila, P., Compagnoni, A., Crone, E., Ezard, T.H.G., Hodgson, D., Knight, Tiffany, Jones, O.R., Jongejans, E., McDonald, J., Tenhumberg, B., Thomas, C.C., Tyre, A.J., Ramula, S., Stott, I., Tremblay, R.L., Wilson, P., Vaupel, J.W., and Salguero-Gómez, R.
- Abstract
Stage-based demographic methods, such as matrix population models (MPMs), are powerful tools used to address a broad range of fundamental questions in ecology, evolutionary biology and conservation science. Accordingly, MPMs now exist for over 3000 species worldwide. These data are being digitised as an ongoing process and periodically released into two large open-access online repositories: the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database and the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database. During the last decade, data archiving and curation of COMPADRE and COMADRE, and subsequent comparative research, have revealed pronounced variation in how MPMs are parameterized and reported.Here, we summarise current issues related to the parameterisation and reporting of MPMs that arise most frequently and outline how they affect MPM construction, analysis, and interpretation. To quantify variation in how MPMs are reported, we present results from a survey identifying key aspects of MPMs that are frequently unreported in manuscripts. We then screen COMPADRE and COMADRE to quantify how often key pieces of information are omitted from manuscripts using MPMs.Over 80% of surveyed researchers (n = 60) state a clear benefit to adopting more standardised methodologies for reporting MPMs. Furthermore, over 85% of the 300 MPMs assessed from COMPADRE and COMADRE omitted one or more elements that are key to their accurate interpretation. Based on these insights, we identify fundamental issues that can arise from MPM construction and communication and provide suggestions to improve clarity, reproducibility and future research utilising MPMs and their required metadata. To fortify reproducibility and empower researchers to take full advantage of their demographic data, we introduce a standardised protocol to present MPMs in publications. This standard is linked to www.compadre-db.org, so that authors wishing to archive their MPMs can do so prior to submission of publications, following examples from other open-acce
- Published
- 2023
3. Design, recruitment, logistics, and data management of the GEHA (Genetics of Healthy Ageing) project
- Author
-
Skytthe, A., Valensin, S., Jeune, B., Cevenini, E., Balard, F., Beekman, M., Bezrukov, V., Blanche, H., Bolund, L., Broczek, K., Carru, C., Christensen, K., Christiansen, L., Collerton, J.C., Cotichini, R., de Craen, A.J.M., Dato, S., Davies, K., De Benedictis, G., Deiana, L., Flachsbart, F., Gampe, J., Gilbault, C., Gonos, E.S., Haimes, E., Hervonen, A., Hurme, M.A., Janiszewska, D., Jylhä, M., Kirkwood, T.B.L., Kristensen, P., Laiho, P., Leon, A., Marchisio, A., Masciulli, R., Nebel, A., Passarino, G., Pelicci, G., Peltonen, L., Perola, M., Poulain, M., Rea, I.M., Remacle, J., Robine, J.M., Schreiber, S., Scurti, M., Sevini, F., Sikora, E., Skouteri, A., Slagboom, P.E., Spazzafumo, L., Stazi, M.A., Toccaceli, V., Toussaint, O., Törnwall, O., Vaupel, J.W., Voutetakis, K., and Franceschi, C.
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Assessing Genetic Association with Human Survival at Multi-Allelic Loci
- Author
-
Tan, Qihua, De Benedictis, G., Yashin, A.I., Bathum, L., Christiansen, L., Dahlgaard, J., Frizner, N., Vach, W., Vaupel, J.W., Christensen, K., and Kruse, T.A.
- Published
- 2004
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Measuring the genetic influence in modulating the human life span: gene–environment interaction and the sex-specific genetic effect
- Author
-
Tan, Qihua, De Benedictis, G., Yashin, A.I., Bonafe, M., DeLuca, M., Valensin, S., Vaupel, J.W., and Franceschi, C.
- Published
- 2001
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Mortality of the Oldest Old
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W., primary
- Published
- 2001
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Supercentenarians: slower ageing individuals or senile elderly?
- Author
-
Robine, J.-M. and Vaupel, J.W.
- Published
- 2001
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. Explaining fruit fly longevity
- Author
-
Kowald, Axel, Kirkwood, Thomas B.L., Robine, J.M., Ritchie, K., Carey, J.R., Curtsinger, J.W., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Subjects
Mortality -- Research ,Longevity -- Research ,Science and technology ,Research ,Patient outcomes - Abstract
Two recent reports have challenged the notion that death rates automatically increase with age. J. R. Carey et al. (1) studied a large, outbred population of the medfly, Ceratitis capitata, [...]
- Published
- 1993
9. Genes and Longevity: Lessons From Studies of Centenarians
- Author
-
Yashin, A.I., De Benedictis, G., Vaupel, J.W., Tan, Q., Andreev, K.F., Iachine, I.A., Bonafe, M., Valensin, S., De Luca, M., Carotenuto, L., and Franceschi, C.
- Subjects
Centenarians -- Genetic aspects ,Longevity -- Genetic aspects ,Health ,Seniors - Abstract
In population studies of aging, the data on genetic markers are often collected for individuals from different age groups. The idea of such studies is to identify 'longevity' or 'frailty' genes by comparing the frequencies of genotypes in the oldest and in the younger groups of individuals. In this paper we discuss a new approach to the analysis of such data. This approach, based on the maximum likelihood method, combines data on genetic markers with survival information obtained from standard demographic life tables. This method allows us to evaluate survival characteristics for individuals carrying respective candidate genes. It can also be used in the estimation of the effects of allele-area and allele-allele interaction, either in the presence or absence of hidden heterogeneity. We apply this method to the analysis of Italian data on genetic markers for five autosomal loci and mitochondrial genomes. Then we discuss basic assumptions used in this analysis and directions of further research.
- Published
- 2000
10. The COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database: an open online repository for plant demography
- Author
-
Salguero-Gomez, R., Jones, O.R., Archer, C.R., Buckley, Y.M., Che-Castaldo, J., Caswell, H., Hodgson, D., Scheuerlein, A., Conde, D.A., Brinks, E., Buhr, H. de, Farack, C., Gottschalk, F., Hartmann, A., Henning, A., Hoppe, G., Roemer, G., Runge, J., Ruoff, T., Wille, J., Zeh, S., Davison, R., Vieregg, D., Baudisch, A., Altwegg, R., Colchero, F., Dong, M., de Kroon, H., Lebreton, J.D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Neel, M.M., Parker, I.M., Takada, T., Valverde, T., Velez-Espino, L.A., Wardle, G.M., Franco, M., Vaupel, J.W., Salguero-Gomez, R., Jones, O.R., Archer, C.R., Buckley, Y.M., Che-Castaldo, J., Caswell, H., Hodgson, D., Scheuerlein, A., Conde, D.A., Brinks, E., Buhr, H. de, Farack, C., Gottschalk, F., Hartmann, A., Henning, A., Hoppe, G., Roemer, G., Runge, J., Ruoff, T., Wille, J., Zeh, S., Davison, R., Vieregg, D., Baudisch, A., Altwegg, R., Colchero, F., Dong, M., de Kroon, H., Lebreton, J.D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Neel, M.M., Parker, I.M., Takada, T., Valverde, T., Velez-Espino, L.A., Wardle, G.M., Franco, M., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Abstract
Contains fulltext : 149074.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)
- Published
- 2015
11. Genome-wide linkage analysis for human longevity: Genetics of Healthy Aging Study
- Author
-
Beekman, M., Blanche, H., Perola, M., Hervonen, A., Bezrukov, V., Sikora, E., Flachsbart, F., Christiansen, L., Craen, A.J.M. de, Kirkwood, T.B.L., Rea, I.M., Poulain, M., Robine, J.M., Valensin, S., Stazi, M.A., Passarino, G., Deiana, L., Gonos, E.S., Paternoster, L., Sorensen, T.I.A., Tan, Q.H., Helmer, Q., Akker, E.B. van den, Deelen, J., Martella, F., Cordell, H.J., Ayers, K.L., Vaupel, J.W., Tornwall, O., Johnson, T.E., Schreiber, S., Lathrop, M., Skytthe, A., Westendorp, R.G.J., Christensen, K., Gampe, J., Nebel, A., Houwing-Duistermaat, J.J., Slagboom, P.E., Franceschi, C., GEHA Consortium, Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC), Fondation Jean Dausset - Centre d’Etudes du Polymorphisme Humain [Paris] (CEPH), National Institute for Health and Welfare [Helsinki], Tampere School of Public Health, Institute of Gerontology [Kiev], Nencki Institute of Experimental Biology, Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel, University of Southern Denmark (SDU), Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Ageing, Newcastle University [Newcastle], The Queen’s University of Belfast, Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), CERMES3 - Centre de recherche Médecine, sciences, santé, santé mentale, société (CERMES3 - UMR 8211 / U988 / UM 7), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5 (UPD5)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS), University of Bologna, Istituto Superiore di Sanita [Rome], Università della Calabria [Arcavacata di Rende] (Unical), Università degli Studi di Sassari = University of Sassari [Sassari] (UNISS), Theoretical and Physical Chemistry Institute NHRF, National Hellenic Research Foundation, University of Bristol [Bristol], Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research (CBMR), Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Odense University Hospital (OUH), Institute for Ageing and Health, Newcastle University, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, University of Colorado [Boulder], Leiden University Medical Centre [Leyde, Pays-Bas], Leiden University, Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Ageing, Leiden, The Netherlands, Institute for Ageing and Health, École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5 (UPD5)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Sassari, Danish Aging Research Center, Institute of Public Health, and Institute for Behavioral Genetics
- Subjects
Aging ,Genetic Linkage ,APOE gene ,Genome-wide association study ,Association analysis ,Human familial longevity ,[SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Mitochondrial Precursor Protein Import Complex Proteins ,Cluster Analysis ,Nonagenarian sibling pairs ,media_common ,Aged, 80 and over ,Genetics ,0303 health sciences ,Longevity ,Chromosome Mapping ,Middle Aged ,Europe ,genome-wide linkage analysis ,association analysis ,nonagenarian sibling pairs ,apoe gene ,human familial longevity ,congenital, hereditary, and neonatal diseases and abnormalities ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Locus (genetics) ,Biology ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,Apolipoproteins E ,SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being ,Genetic linkage ,Humans ,Allele ,Alleles ,Aged ,030304 developmental biology ,Genetic association ,Chromosomes, Human, Pair 14 ,Apolipoprotein C-I ,Genome, Human ,Siblings ,Membrane Transport Proteins ,Cell Biology ,Heritability ,Apoe gene ,Genetic Loci ,Human genome ,Lod Score ,Chromosomes, Human, Pair 19 ,Genome-wide linkage analysis ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,Chromosomes, Human, Pair 17 ,Genome-Wide Association Study - Abstract
Clear evidence exists for heritability of humanlongevity, and much interest is focused on identifying genes associated with longer lives. To identify such longevity alleles, we performed the largest genome-wide linkage scan thus far reported. Linkage analyses included 2118nonagenarian Caucasian sibling pairs that have been enrolled in 15 study centers of 11 European countries as part of the Genetics of Healthy Aging (GEHA) project. In the joint linkage analyses, we observed four regions that show linkage with longevity; chromosome 14q11.2 (LOD = 3.47), chromosome 17q12-q22 (LOD = 2.95), chromosome 19p13.3-p13.11 (LOD = 3.76), and chromosome 19q13.11-q13.32 (LOD = 3.57). To fine map these regions linked to longevity, we performed association analysis using GWAS data in a subgroup of 1228 unrelated nonagenarian and 1907 geographically matched controls. Using a fixed-effect meta-analysis approach, rs4420638 at the TOMM40/ APOE/APOC1 gene locus showed significant association with longevity (P-value = 9.6 × 10 -8). By combined modeling of linkage and association, we showed that association of longevity with APOEe4 and APOEe2 alleles explain the linkage at 19q13.11-q13.32 with P-value = 0.02 and P-value = 1.0 × 10 -5, respectively. In the largest linkage scan thus far performed for human familial longevity, we confirm that the APOE locus is a longevity gene and that additional longevity loci may be identified at 14q11.2, 17q12-q22, and 19p13.3-p13.11. As the latter linkage results are not explained by common variants, we suggest that rare variants play an important role in human familial longevity.
- Published
- 2013
12. Species of Evidence of Exceptional Longevity
- Author
-
Jeune, B., Vaupel, J.W., Jeune, B., and Vaupel, J.W., red.
- Published
- 1999
13. Extreme longevity in a family:a report of multiple centenarians within a single generation
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W., Alpert, L, Desjardins, Bertrand, Perls, Thomas T, Jeune, B., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Published
- 1999
14. The heritability of telomere length among the elderly and oldest-old
- Author
-
Bischoff, Claus, Graakjær, Jesper, Petersen, H.C., Hjelmborg, J.V.B., Vaupel, J.W., Bohr, Vilhelm, Kølvraa, Steen, and Christensen, Kaare
- Subjects
Aged, 80 and over ,Male ,Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health ,Obstetrics and Gynecology ,Humans ,Female ,Models, Theoretical ,Telomere ,Genetics (clinical) ,Aged - Abstract
A tight link exists between telomere length and both population doublings of a cell culture and age of a given organism. The more population doublings of the cell culture or the higher the age of the organism, the shorter the telomeres. The proposed model for telomere shortening, called the end replication problem, explains why the telomere erodes at each cellular turnover. Telomere length is regulated by a number of associated proteins through a number of different signaling pathways. The determinants of telomere length were studied using whole blood samples from 287 twin pairs aged 73 to 95 years. Structural equation models revealed that a model including additive genetic effects and non- shared environment was the best fitting model and that telomere length was moderately heritable, with an estimate that was sensitive to the telomere length standardization procedure. Sex-specific analyses showed lower heritability in males, although not statistically significant, which is in line with our earlier finding of a sex difference in telomere dynamics among the elderly and oldest-old.
- Published
- 2005
15. Loss of partner and suicide risks among the oldest old: a population-based register study
- Author
-
Erlangsen, A., Jeune, B., Bille-Brahe, U., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Published
- 2004
16. The heritability of cause-specific mortality: a correlated gamma-frailty model applied to mortality due to respiratory diseases in Danish twins born 1870-1930
- Author
-
Wienke, A., Holm, N.V., Christensen, K., Skytthe, A., Juel, K., Vaupel, J.W., and Yashin, A.I.
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Aged, 80 and over ,Male ,Best fitting ,Models, Statistical ,Epidemiology ,Denmark ,Cause specific mortality ,Heritability ,Biology ,Middle Aged ,language.human_language ,Danish ,Gamma frailty ,Cause of Death ,language ,Humans ,Female ,Respiratory system ,Respiratory Tract Infections ,Demography ,Cause of death ,Dominance (genetics) ,Aged - Abstract
The genetic influence on susceptibility to diseases of the respiratory system and all‐cause mortality was studied using data for identical (MZ) and fraternal (DZ) twins. Data from the Danish Twin Register include 1344 MZ and 2411 DZ male twin pairs and 1470 MZ and 2730 DZ female twin pairs born between 1870 and 1930, where both individuals were alive on 1 011943. We used the correlated gamma‐frailty model. Proportions of variance in frailty attributable to genetic and environmental factors were assessed using the structural equation model approach. For all‐cause mortality the correlation coefficients of frailty for MZ twins tend to be higher than for DZ twins. For mortality with respect to respiratory diseases this effect was only seen in females, whereas males showed the opposite effect. Five standard biometric models are fitted to the data to evaluate the magnitude and nature of genetic and environmental factors on mortality. Using the best fitting biometric model heritability for cause of death was found to be 0.58 (0.07) for all‐cause mortality (AE‐model) and zero for diseases of the respiratory system for males. Heritability was 0.63 (0.11) for all‐cause mortality (DE‐model) and 0.18 (0.09) for diseases ofthe respiratory system (DE‐model) for females. The analysis confirms the presence of a strong genetic influence on individual frailty associated with all‐cause mortality. For respiratory diseases, no genetic influence was found in males and only weak genetic influence in females. The nature of genetic influences on frailty with respect to all‐cause mortality is probably additive in males and dominant in females, whereas for frailty with respect to deaths caused by respiratory diseases in females, there are genetic factors present which are caused by dominance. Environmental influences are non‐shared with exception of frailty with respect to respiratory diseases in males, where the shared environment plays an important role. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
- Published
- 2003
17. Age trajectories of genetic variance in physical functioning:A longitudinal study of Danish twins aged 70 years and older
- Author
-
Christensen, K., Frederiksen, H., Vaupel, J.W., and McGue, M.
- Abstract
Genetic-evolutionary theories of aging predict that the genetic variance for fitness traits increases with age, while epidemiological-gerontological theories predict an increase in the environmental variance for most traits. In this study we examine the age trajectories of the genetic and environmental variance in physical functioning in a sample of 4731 Danish twins aged 70+ who are being followed longitudinally every second year with up to four assessments completed. A biometric growth model (Neale and McArdle, 2000) was applied to a validated physical ability score. The model included an overall level effect, a rate of linear change effect, and residual effects. The best-fitting model was a sex-specific model including additive genetic and nonshared environmental factors affecting level and rate of change and only nonshared environmental factors affecting the wave-specific levels. For both sexes there is an approximate doubling of both the total variance and the genetic variance in the physical ability score over the four waves and, hence, a rather stable heritability. However, the heritability is approximately .10 for males and .30 for females in all four waves. The heritability of level and slope showed a similar pattern: .11–14 in males and .35–.39 in females. The increase in both additive genetic variance and environmental variance is in agreement with genetic-evolutionary and epidemiological-gerontological theories of aging, respectively. The present study suggests that overall level of strength may be a better phenotype for future molecular genetic studies on physical functioning in the elderly than rate of change, because rate of change is vulnerable to sample attrition due to mortality and dropout and because four waves were needed to be able to detect a heritability for rate of change of the same magnitude as the heritability for level of physical functioning.
- Published
- 2003
18. Major genetic susceptibility for venous thromboembolism in men: a study of Danish twins
- Author
-
Larsen, T.B., Sørensen, H.T., Skytthe, A., Johnsen, S.P., Vaupel, J.W., and Christensen, K.
- Published
- 2003
19. Ageing. It's never too late
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W., Carey, R., and Christensen, K.
- Published
- 2003
20. The influences on human longevity by HUMTHO1.STR polymorphism (Tyrosine Hydroxylase gene):A relative risk approach
- Author
-
Tan, Q., Bellizzi, D., Rose, G., Garasto, S., Franceschi, C., Kruse, T., Vaupel, J.W., De Benedictis, G., and Yashin, A.I.
- Abstract
A new method based on the recently developed relative risk approach is introduced, and applied to data from Italian centenarian study (965 subjects aged from 13 to 109 years old) for investigating influences on longevity by Tyrosine Hydroxylase (TH) gene variability. The strategic parameterization enables the model to disentangle the various ways by which HUMTHO1.STR alleles (alleles 6, 7, 8, 9, 10*, 10, as defined according to the number of repeats) may contribute in reducing or increasing the hazard of death with different patterns of influences. Among all the alleles, we have found that allele 10* (10 imperfect repeats) shows a remarkable dominant and beneficial effect that reduces the log hazard of death in an additive manner. The results confirm that HUMTHO1.STR polymorphism is involved in the modulation of human longevity.
- Published
- 2002
21. Functional capacity and self-rated health in 2,262 nonagenarians:The Danish 1905 cohort Survey
- Author
-
Nybo, H., Gaist, D., Jeune, B., Bathum, L., McGue, M., Vaupel, J.W., Christensen, K., and m.fl.
- Subjects
Male ,Gerontology ,Self-Assessment ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Denmark ,Health Status ,Personal Satisfaction ,Cohort Studies ,Danish ,Residence Characteristics ,Surveys and Questionnaires ,Activities of Daily Living ,Humans ,Medicine ,Disabled Persons ,Mortality ,Geriatric Assessment ,Aged ,Self-rated health ,Aged, 80 and over ,Marital Status ,business.industry ,Public health ,Health Surveys ,humanities ,language.human_language ,Preferred walking speed ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Socioeconomic Factors ,Cohort ,language ,Educational Status ,Female ,Functional status ,Geriatrics and Gerontology ,Factor Analysis, Statistical ,business ,Attitude to Health ,Lower mortality ,human activities ,Cohort study - Abstract
Udgivelsesdato: May OBJECTIVES: To describe the functional capacity and self‐rated health of a large cohort of nonagenarians.DESIGN: A cross‐sectional survey of all Danes born in 1905 (92–93 years of age), carried out August to October 1998.SETTING: Participants' homes.PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand two hundred and sixty‐two nonagenarians, corresponding to a participation rate of 63% (of these, 20% participated by proxy).MEASUREMENTS: Activities of daily living (ADLs) and self‐rated health were assessed by interview. Five items from Katz's ADLs (bathing, dressing, transfer, toileting, and eating) were used to construct a three‐level five‐item ADL scale (not disabled (no disabilities), moderately disabled (1–2 disabilities), severely disabled (3–5 disabilities)). From responses to a more extensive list of questions on ADLs (26 items), we identified scales of strength and agility by means of factor analysis. Furthermore, a 26‐item ADL scale was made. Physical performance tests (chair stand, timed walk, lifting a 2.7 kg box, maximum grip‐strength, and flexibility tests) were performed among nonproxy responders.RESULTS: According to the five‐item ADL scale, 50% of the men and 41% of the women were categorized as not disabled, while 19% and 22%, respectively, were categorized as severely disabled. The five‐item ADL scale correlated highly with the 26‐item ADL scale (r = 0.83). The ADL scales showed moderate‐to‐good correlation with each other (r = 0.74–0.83), and with the physical performance tests (r = 0.31–0.58). Only 3.7% of the women and 6.3% of the men walked (normal pace) with a speed of at least 1 meter per second, which is the minimum walking speed required to cross signaled intersections in Denmark. A total of 56% considered their health to be excellent or good. Of the participants, 74% were always or almost always satisfied with their lives, even though only 45% reported that they “felt well enough to do what they wanted.” The analyses showed that no single ADL item seemed to be of particular importance for how the participants rated their health.CONCLUSION: The Danish 1905 cohort survey is the largest and the only nationwide survey of a whole birth‐cohort of nonagenarians. A total of 2,262 fairly nonselected nonagenarians participated. The level of both self‐reported disability and functional limitations measured by physical performance tests among nonagenarians was high. Despite their lower mortality, women were more disabled than men and did not perform as well as men in the physical performance tests. Nevertheless, the majority of the participants considered their health to be good and were satisfied with their lives.
- Published
- 2001
22. A logistic regression model for measuring gene-longevity associations
- Author
-
Tan, Q., Yashin, A.I., De Benedictis, G., Cintolesi, F., Rose, G., Bonafe, M., Francheschi, C., Vach, W., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Abstract
The logistic regression model is a popular model for data analysis in epidemiological research. In this paper, we use this model to analyze genetic data collected from gene–longevity association studies. This new approach models the probability of observing one genotype as a function of the age of investigated individuals. Applying the model to genotype data on the TH and 3′ApoB‐VNTR loci collected from an Italian centenarian study, we show how it can be used to model the different ways that genes affect survival, including sex‐ and age‐specific influences. We highlight the advantages of this application over other available models. The application of the model to empirical data indicates that it is an efficient and easily applicable approach for determining the influences of genes on human longevity.
- Published
- 2001
23. Demography and its Relation to Other Disciplines YYYY No org found YYY
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W., Kohler, H-P., and Zdenék P., null
- Published
- 2000
24. NIA Aging and Genetic Epidemiology Working Group:Genetic Epidemiologic Studies on Age-Specified Traits
- Author
-
Hadley, E.C., Albert, S.M., Bailey-Wilson, J., Baron, J., Cawthon, R., Christian, J.C., Corder, E.H., Franceschi, C., Kestenbaum, B., Kruglyak, L., Lauderdale, D., Lubitz, J., Martin, G.M., McClearn, G.E., McGue, M., Miles, T., Mineau, G., Ouellette, Pedersen, N.L., Preston, S.H., Page, W.F., Province, Schächter, F., Schork, N.J., and Vaupel, J.W. m.fl.
- Abstract
This commentary calls attention to the value of combining genetic and epidemiologic methods in studies to understand the determinants of two crucial aspects of aging: ages at which certain outcomes (e.g., disease, mortality) occur and rates of change with age of individual's characteristics (e.g., physiologic functions, disease risk factors). Inclusion of age in the specification of traits in genetic epidemiologic studies could lead to improved strategies to increase healthy life expectancy and evaluate individuals' risk for age-related morbidity. Special issues that make genetic epidemiologic approaches important for studies of age-specified phenomena as well as opportunities and challenges for such studies are discussed, including study designs, sampling frames, databases, analytic tools, and related methodological issues. This commentary is based on a report prepared by the Aging and Genetic Epidemiology Working Group, convened by the National Institute on Aging to review opportunities for research on the genetic epidemiology of aging-related outcomes
- Published
- 2000
25. Unobserved Population Heterogeneity
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W. and Yashin, A.I.
- Published
- 1999
26. Genetics of Disability and Other Chronic Conditions YYYY No org found YYY:A Bivariate Model of Debilitation and Survival
- Author
-
Iachine, I.A., Yashin, A.I., Christensen, K., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Published
- 1999
27. Advances in measuring lifespan in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae
- Author
-
Minois, N., Frajnt, M., Wilson, C., Vaupel, J.W., Minois, N., Frajnt, M., Wilson, C., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Abstract
Much research aimed at discovering the genetic bases of longevity focuses on the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Unfortunately, yeast researchers use a definition of longevity not applied to other species. We propose here a method that makes it possible to estimate for yeast the same measures of longevity calculated for other species. We also show that the conventional method (equating longevity with the number of offspring) is only an approximate measure of true chronological lifespan. Our method will allow results for yeast to be compared more correctly with those for other species.
- Published
- 2005
28. Introduction: The need to rethink approaches to population forecasts
- Author
-
Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., Ahlburg, D.A., Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., and Ahlburg, D.A.
- Abstract
Three major groups call on demographers to produce medium- and long-term population forecasts at the national, regional, or global levels - or produce them themselves. They are: other scientists, government and international agencies, and the general public, including private industry. What these consumers of forecasts demand of demographers, or what demographers think that they should demand, has been changing. The types of forecasts demanded are changing, the relevant dimension of forecasts is expanding, and users are increasingly requiring that forecasts include an indication of the degree of uncertainty of the forecast. Because the demands placed on demographers for population forecasts have been changing, it is an appropriate time to rethink some of their basic aspects. In this volume we address what we see as key issues in population forecasting: in what dimensions and at what levels of disaggregation should forecasts be provided? (And, in particular, are the traditional dimensions of age and sex sufficient?) Should population forecasts take note of limits to population or interactions between population and other variables? And how should uncertainty be treated? We believe that, at least in part, these issues are driven by changes in what users of forecasts want from population forecasters. The reader will note that we have used the term "forecasts" rather than the more common "projections." Demographers claim to produce population "projections," which are correctly computed numerical outcomes of a specified algorithm whose form, initial values, and controlling parameters or transition values are specified by the analyst. By definition, a projection must be correct unless arithmetical or other errors are made. However, users of population projections require population "forecasts." Forecasts are what Donald Pittenger (1980) called a "population projection selected as a likely outcome." Thus although a demographer makes a "projection," the user employs it as a
- Published
- 1999
29. Demographic dimensions in forecasting: Adding education to age and sex
- Author
-
Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., Ahlburg, D.A., Goujon, A., Doblhammer-Reiter, G., Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., Ahlburg, D.A., Goujon, A., and Doblhammer-Reiter, G.
- Abstract
Any breakdown of the total population (i.e., the number of living individuals staying within a well-defined area) for analytical purposes follows a certain implicit or explicit logic. In demography it has become standard practice to sort the total population along the dimensions of age and sex. Although this practice is usually taken for granted and not explicitly justified, it may be useful to recall the good reasons that have lead to this practice. This appraisal of age and sex helps to evaluate the importance one should assign to explicit consideration of such other possible dimensions as marital status, ethnicity, labor force participation, region of origin, and educational status. Three criteria should govern the determination to explicitly consider a particular dimension (breakdown) in demographic analysis in general and in population projections in particular: Criterion 1. To the users the dimension is interesting in its own right and therefore desirable as an explicit output parameter. Criterion 2. The dimension is a relevant source of demographic heterogeneity with an impact on the dynamics of the whole system and therefore on the resulting population size. Criterion 3. It is feasible (in terms of data and methodology) to consider the dimension explicitly. Age meets these criteria....
- Published
- 1999
30. Ways to improve population forecasting: What should be done differently in the future?
- Author
-
Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., Ahlburg, D.A., Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., and Ahlburg, D.A.
- Abstract
To improve population forecasting in the future, demographers should conduct more thorough assessments of the accuracy of past projections. Research should also focus on making greater use of: (1) models that include marriage, divorce, cohabitation, morbidity, and other demographic events that influence fertility, mortality, and migration as well as models that break populations down by educational achievement, employment status, and other variables; (2) models that take account of economic, social, and environmental dynamics, including integrated structural models and models with constraints; and (3) forecasting approaches that systematically quantify uncertainty. A further area that requires rethinking is the appropriate use of expert judgment in population projections. Finally, new ways need to be developed for distributing software for making population forecasts and for disseminating the results of alternative forecasts.
- Published
- 1999
31. Expert-based probabilistic population projections
- Author
-
Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., Ahlburg, D.A., Sanderson, W.C., Scherbov, S., Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., Ahlburg, D.A., Sanderson, W.C., and Scherbov, S.
- Abstract
Most users of population projections are interested in one likely path of future population trends based on the best existing knowledge. Whether it is called the medium variant, central scenario, or median of an uncertainty distribution, this projected path will be taken as a forecast on which further considerations can be based. For many users such a best guess will suffice. It can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school planning, social security considerations, energy outlook, and the like. For this reason a medium projection is an indispensable component of any set of published projections intended for practical use.
- Published
- 1999
32. Frontiers of Population Forecasting
- Author
-
Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., Ahlburg, D.A., Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., and Ahlburg, D.A.
- Abstract
Most users of demographic data in government and industry require population forecasts-soundly based information on future population trends at the local, national, or global level. In the eyes of the public this is a principal justification for the discipline of demography And increasingly, sophisticated users expect not a single "best guess" of a population trajectory - perhaps straddled by "high" and "low" variants - but a range of demographic futures with associated indications of uncertainty, or even formal confidence intervals. Or they may want full-fledged scenarios of the development of the demographic system in different economic or environmental circumstances. Many population agencies, on the other hand, continue to generate population "projections" by methods that have been virtually unchanged for decades, with no assessment of probability and often claiming no ambition to predict. It is time to reexamine the procedures of population forecasting and to respond to these emerging demands by users. The nine chapters in this volume take on this task. The key issues they address include: What population characteristics beyond the standard variables of age and sex should routinely enter population forecasts? When should forecasts take account of economic or environmental feedbacks? How is forecasting accuracy to be assessed and what is the past record? What is the state of the art of stochastic time series modeling of population change? How can users cope with probability distributions? What scope is there for application of methods to incorporate expert opinion into population forecasting? Recent years have seen substantial advances in forecasting methods. These are beginning to be applied in population. For end users of forecasts who are familiar mainly with UN or similar population projection series and for the many professional demographers whose knowledge of projections has not progressed much since graduate, school, this volume opens a window on significa
- Published
- 1999
33. Chronological aging-independent replicative life span regulation by Msn2/Msn4 and Sod2 inSaccharomyces cerevisiae
- Author
-
Fabrizio, P, primary, Pletcher, S.D, additional, Minois, N, additional, Vaupel, J.W, additional, and Longo, V.D, additional
- Published
- 2003
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. The influences on human longevity by HUMTHO1.STR polymorphism (Tyrosine Hydroxylase gene)
- Author
-
Tan, Qihua, primary, Bellizzi, D, additional, Rose, G, additional, Garasto, S, additional, Franceschi, C, additional, Kruse, T, additional, Vaupel, J.W, additional, De Benedictis, G, additional, and Yashin, A.I, additional
- Published
- 2002
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Genes, Demography, and Life Span: The Contribution of Demographic Data in Genetic Studies on Aging and Longevity
- Author
-
Yashin, A.I., primary, De Benedictis, G., additional, Vaupel, J.W., additional, Tan, Q., additional, Andreev, K.F., additional, Iachine, I.A., additional, Bonafe, M., additional, DeLuca, M., additional, Valensin, S., additional, Carotenuto, L., additional, and Franceschi, C., additional
- Published
- 1999
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. Chronological aging-independent replicative life span regulation by Msn2/Msn4 and Sod2 in Saccharomyces cerevisiae
- Author
-
Fabrizio, P., Pletcher, S.D., Minois, N., Vaupel, J.W., and Longo, V.D.
- Subjects
GENETIC mutation ,SACCHAROMYCES cerevisiae ,SUPEROXIDES ,GENETIC transcription - Abstract
Mutations in RAS2, CYR1, and SCH9 extend the chronological life span in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by activating stress-resistance transcription factors and mitochondrial superoxide dismutase (Sod2). Here we show that mutations in CYR1 and SCH9 also extend the replicative life span of individual yeast mother cells. However, the triple deletion of stress-resistance genes MSN2/MSN4 and RIM15, which causes a major decrease in chronological life span, extends replicative life span. Similarly, the overexpression of superoxide dismutases, which extends chronological survival, shortens the replicative life span and prevents budding in 30–40% of virgin mother cells. These results suggest that stress-resistance transcription factors Msn2/Msn4 negatively regulate budding and the replicative life span in part by increasing SOD2 expression. The role of superoxide dismutases and of other stress-resistance proteins in extending the chronological life span of yeast, worms, and flies indicates that the negative effect of Sod2, Msn2/Msn4/Rim15 on the replicative life span of S. cerevisiae is independent of aging. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2004
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Over-Tenured Universities: The Mathematics of Reduction
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W.
- Subjects
Education ,Employee morale -- Demographic aspects ,Business ,Business, general - Published
- 1981
38. Analytical Thinking for Busy Decision Makers
- Author
-
Behn, R.D. and Vaupel, J.W.
- Subjects
Decision-making -- Management ,Business, general - Published
- 1983
39. Influence of Demographic Patterns on Human Response to Exposure to Environmental Contaminants: Heterogeneity Factors
- Author
-
Yashin, A.I., Bernstein, A.J., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Abstract
It is generally accepted that the risk of disease and death vary markedly by age and sex. However, there are also inherited and acquired factors that cause vast differences in human susceptibility to many pollutant exposures. Most people are less familiar with this wide range of heterogeneity precipitated by genetic make-up, life style, occupation, nutrition, residence location, etc. The combined role of these many heterogeneity factors is often underestimated. Yet they are the major factors that determine the evolution of mortality and morbidity patterns within a population. In this paper, we examine a variety of heterogeneities present in environmental pollutant susceptibilities, briefly look at how attempts to recognize heterogeneity have played a role in efforts to regulate pollutants, consider how likely shifts in the composition of population may affect morbidity and mortality rates affected by environmental pollution, discuss how indirect heterogeneity factors can lead to additional complications in interpretations of pollution-related mortality statistics, and offer several suggestive models of heterogeneous susceptibility.
- Published
- 1985
40. Passage to Methuselah: Some Demographic Consequences of Continued Progress Against Mortality
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W. and Gowan, A.E.
- Abstract
Suppose progress continues to be made in reducing mortality rates at all ages. What impact would this progress have on the size and age composition of the U.S. population? The supposition that mortality rates will continue to fall is admittedly questionable. The view popularized by James F. Fries is that "the median natural human life span is set at a maximum of 85 years with a standard error of less than one year" (Fries and Crapo, 1981). Paul Demeny, in making long-term population forecasts for the World Bank, assumes that even by the year 2100 there will be no country with a life expectancy above 82.5 years. Demeny notes that in some countries life expectancy seems to be slowly decreasing. The possibility of a general decline in life expectancy cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, as Demeny points out, "the upper limit to life expectancy" of 82.5 years "may yield to technological changes in medicine and to changes in life styles, perhaps even within the next few decades" (Demeny, 1984). As documented by Crimmins (1981), remarkably rapid progress in reducing mortality rates was made in the United States from 1968 to 1977. This progress has continued and even accelerated from 1977 to 1983. At most ages, including older ages, mortality rates over the last decade have been declining at a rate of one or two percent per year. Hope that this progress might continue is butressed by recent advances in the biological, medical, and gerontological sciences. The life sciences appear to be poised at roughly the point the physical sciences were a century ago and breakthroughs comparable to electricity, automobiles, television, and computers may be forthcoming in the areas of genetic engineering, prevention and treatment of such diseases as atherosclerosis, cancer, and diabetes, and perhaps understanding and control of the process of aging itself (see, e.g. Walford (1983), Bulkley (1983), and Rosenfeld (1976)). In this note, we explore three possibilities: no change in mortality rates, continued progress at two percent per year at all ages, and a radical breakthrough that cuts mortality rates in half in the year 2000. Our focus is on the impact of such scenarios on the size and age composition of the U.S. population. Because our aim is insight and not prediction, we assume that fertility rates stay unchanged and that net migration amounts to zero: these simplifications avoid obscuring the effects of mortality change with fertility or migration change....
- Published
- 1985
41. Debilitation's Aftermath: Stochastic Process Models of Mortality
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W., Yashin, A.I., and Manton, K.G.
- Abstract
The paper is devoted to the analysis of stochastic process models of mortality which can explain both selection and debilitation processes in the evolution of cohort mortality. The relative importance of each process is analyzed. The examples of various regimes of mortality evolution are demonstrated.
- Published
- 1986
42. The LEXIS Program for Creating Shaded Contour Maps of Demographic Surfaces
- Author
-
Gambill, B.A. and Vaupel, J.W.
- Abstract
The LEXIS computer program, which was developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Duke University, is intended to aid demographers in the analysis of large arrays of data. Its application as a supplement t o other methods of graphic display is demonstrated in 'Thousands of Data at a Glance: Shaded Contour Maps of Demographic Surfaces" (Vaupel, Gambill, and Yashin, 1985) and will not be discussed here. This paper provides instructions on the use of the program, gives some hints concerning the art and craft of using the program in a creative way, and briefly describes the algorithm used in designing the program. A diskette containing a copy of the LEXIS program may be obtained from the authors or from IIASA. The program is copyrighted but the diskette is not protected against copying: please feel free to make and distribute copies. By making the program available to demographers and others interested in mapping the contours of surfaces, we hope to encourage the development of this method of data analysis. We would, of course, sincerely appreciate it if we and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis were acknowledged when the program or some modified version of it is used to produce maps for presentation or publication. Comments and suggestions are welcome!
- Published
- 1985
43. Thousands of Data at a Glance: Shaded Contour Maps of Demographic Surfaces
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W., Gambill, B.A., and Yashin, A.I.
- Abstract
Contour maps are useful for displaying demographic surfaces, including surfaces of population levels and fertility, marriage, and mortality rates. Most often the surfaces are defined over age and time, but other dimensions can be used such as life expectancy or population growth rate. This research report presents a bouquet of contour maps to suggest the broad potential of their use in demographic studies. The maps presented range from maps of Italian mortality, French population levels, and US birth rates, to maps of Coale and Demeny's and Brass's model life tables. The value of the maps lies in their substantive import: by giving demographers visual access to population surfaces, the maps can help demographers uncover and understand population patterns. The text of the research report adumbrates some of these patterns and discusses the use of contour maps in exploratory data analyses and model building, including the use of maps of residuals in fitting models to data.
- Published
- 1987
44. Education at IIASA
- Author
-
Goodwin, D.G. and Vaupel, J.W.
- Abstract
This report is a product of a study of current and potential education programs at IIASA conducted by Dianne Goodwin and James Vaupel with the assistance of Olivia Carydias. The study was begun in July 1982 and completed on January 5, 1983. The first section of this report focuses on the Young Scientists Summer Program: the current program is evaluated, several recommendations for incremental improvements are suggested, and a "Summer Roundtable" program that could either supplement or replace the current program is proposed. The second section of this report considers opportunities for offering short courses (of one to three weeks' duration) at IIASA. Two broad options are described. IIASA could initiate a modest program of short courses based on IIASA research projects. In addition, IIASA might launch a program of East/West Colloquia. We considered a long list of options for education at IIASA. Most were easily ruled out based on the criteria we developed or the consensus of opinion we received. This report describes the relatively few remaining options worth further consideration.
- Published
- 1984
45. Mortality in Italy: Contours of a Century of Evolution
- Author
-
Caselli, G., Vaupel, J.W., and Yashin, A.I.
- Abstract
Contour maps of Italian male and female mortality rates from age 0 to 79 and from 1870 to 1979 graphically display persistent global and prominent local patterns of mortality, simultaneously over age, by period, and for cohorts. The maps give demographers visual access to previously recognized features of the evolution of Italian mortality as well as focusing attention on some neglected features. Use of contour maps to display various kinds of mortality data, including mortality comparisons, may help demographers better understand the social and biological determinants of mortality.
- Published
- 1985
46. Contour Maps of Demographic Surfaces
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W., Gambill, B.A., Yashin, A.I., and Bernstein, A.J.
- Abstract
This paper presents a bouquet of contour maps to suggest the broad potential of their use in demographic studies. Every picture presented could serve as the basis for a thousand words or more of explanation and analysis, but here we merely serve up the maps as illustrations of the method. For an example of how such maps can be used in demographic analysis, see Caselli, Vaupel, and Yashin (1985): Mortality in Italy--Contours of a Century of Evolution (CP-85-24, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria).
- Published
- 1985
47. Mortality and Aging in a Heterogeneous Population: A Stochastic Process Model with Observed and Unobserved Variables
- Author
-
Yashin, A.I., Manton, K.G., and Vaupel, J.W.
- Abstract
A number of multivariate stochastic process models have been developed to represent human physiological aging and mortality. In this paper, we extend those efforts by considering the effects of unobserved state variables on the age trajectory of physiological parameters. This is accomplished by deriving the Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck equations for the distribution of the state variables conditionally on the process of the observed state variables. Proofs are given that this form of the process will preserve the Gaussian properties of the distribution. Strategies for estimating the parameters of the distribution of the unobserved variable are suggested based on an extension of the theory of Kalman filters to include systematic mortality selection. Implications of individual differences on the trajectories of the unobserved process for observed aging changes are discussed as well as the consequences of such modeling for dealing with other types of processes in heterogeneous populations.
- Published
- 1983
48. Concentration Curves and Have-Statistics for Ecological Analysis of Diversity: Part II: Species and Other Diversity
- Author
-
Goodwin, D.G. and Vaupel, J.W.
- Abstract
The application of concentration curves and have-statistics to studies of dominance and evenness in reproductive success was discussed in Part I of this series of three papers. Concentration curves and have-statistics can also aid ecologists in studies of species diversity and community structure; a start in this direction was made by Patil and Taillie (1979) and Taillie (1979). Essentially, the method is the same as before except that now the "haves" are species rather than individuals and the "hads" are individuals, biomass, caloric intake, etc., rather than an individual's offspring. In addition, concentration curves and have-statistics can be applied to other ecological topics pertaining to variation and inequality, including the temporal or spatial distribution of some resource, such as food supply or rainfall. Various examples, from studies of diatoms, a community of herbaceous plants, a tropical forest, a model of niche preemption, and temporal variation in the breeding of tropical and temperate bird species illustrate this approach.
- Published
- 1985
49. Repeated Resuscitation: How Lifesaving alters Lifetables
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W. and Yashin, A.I.
- Abstract
How does saving lives affect the force of mortality and lifetable statistics? How can the progress being made in reducing the force of mortality be interpreted in terms of lifesaving? How many times can a person expect to have his or her life saved as a result of this progress? We develop a model to answer these questions and illustrate the results using U.S. mortality rates for 1900 and 1980 and as projected for 2050.
- Published
- 1985
50. The Deviant Dynamics of Death in Heterogeneous Populations
- Author
-
Vaupel, J.W. and Yashin, A.I.
- Abstract
The members of most populations gradually die off or drop out: people die, machines wear out, residents move out, etc. In many such "aging" populations, some members are more likely to "die" than others. Standard analytical methods largely ignore this heterogeneity; the methods assume that all members of a population at a given age face the same probability of death. This paper presents some mathematical methods for studying how the behavior over time of a heterogeneous population deviates from the behavior of the individuals that make up the population. The methods yield some startling results: individuals age faster than populations, eliminating a cause of death can decrease life expectancy, a population can suffer a higher death rate than another population even though its members have lower death rates, population death rates can be increasing even though its members' death rates are decreasing.
- Published
- 1982
Catalog
Discovery Service for Jio Institute Digital Library
For full access to our library's resources, please sign in.