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This report investigates how key environmental variables influence the recruitment process of target fish stocks. Understanding how the environment affects recruitment may allow more accurate predictions of fish stock dynamics under scenarios of environmental change and in particular their response to global warming, supporting the development and implementation of robust management policies. Case studies from the four Seawise case study regions have been analysed, and the main results obtained so far are summarized below. In the Baltic Sea, the Gulf of Riga spring spawning herring showed effects of spawning stock biomass on individual weight of age-1 fish, with prey abundance in May and previous year feeding period temperature also playing significant roles. The explanatory power of the final model was moderate. Higher weight of herring is achieved at higher prey densities, lower SSB levels and lower temperatures during the main feeding season of age-0 fish. Recruitment of Western Baltic cod and herring showed decreasing reproductive potential at increasing temperature. In the North Sea, the effects of temperature, salinity, currents, chlorophyll and zooplankton on recruitment of cod, haddock, saithe, whiting, plaice, sole, sprat and herring were investigated using a semi-automated, machine learning framework. The incorporation of environmental signals in recruitment predictions showed improved predictions over a stock recruitment model without environmental effects in six out of the eight stocks. For small pelagic foirage fish, four stock-recruitment models were fitted for three sandeel stocks and the North Sea sprat stock Linear regressions revealed various relationships between recruitment and environmental variables. Short-term time scales based on monthly averages produced a noisier and less consistent pattern for most stock. In the Western Waters, Bayesian online change point detection models were applied to thr

The Benchmark Workshop on Sandeel (Ammodytes spp.) (WKSandeel) was conducted over an extended period, spanning 2021-2023, to agree the assessment methodology to be used in future update assessments of sandeel in areas 1–4 (Figure 1). The benchmark had a strong focus on investigating spatial stock boundaries within the North Sea, bringing catch and survey data compilation and standardization up to standard with the latest insights in ICES and updating the assessments accordingly. The data compilation workshop was preceded by several informal sessions to present the latest findings from an extensive study on stock structure identification, including tagging, otolith micro-chemistry, drift modelling and genetics research. The workshop proposed two alternative stock structure delineation scenarios as presented in Figure 2. The different research projects provided contrasting views on appropriate stock structure delineation, with evidence for residence within the delineated sandeel areas but also migration across the a and b borders as denoted in Figure 2. The group reached consensus that, as a pragmatic way forward, only scenario WKSAND2022a would be put forward for evaluation in the assessments, together with the existing WKSAND2016 delineation as a baseline. Catch numbers at age, fishing effort, maturity at age, weight at age, natural mortality at age and survey indices were recalculated based on the latest insights and tools provided through the ICES RDBES and statistical standardization. Key to this process was also the re-definition of sandeel banks, which are used directly to derive standardized survey indices for the different assessments (Figure 3). For all four sandeel areas, updated assessments were prepared for the WKSAND2022a and WKSAND2016 (baseline) area delineation scenarios. There is no change in area delineation for area 4 under both scenarios. Diagnostics on catch and survey residuals, parameter uncertainty

Multispecies models have existed in a fisheries context since at least the 1970s, but despite much exploration, advancement, and consideration of multispecies models, there remain limited examples of their operational use in fishery management. Given that species and fleet interactions are inherently multispecies problems and the push towards ecosystem-based fisheries management, the lack of more regular operational use is both surprising and compelling. We identify impediments hampering the regular operational use of multispecies models and provide recommendations to address those impediments. These recommendations are: (1) engage stakeholders and managers early and often; (2) improve messaging and communication about the various uses of multispecies models; (3) move forward with multispecies management under current authorities while exploring more inclusive governance structures and flexible decision-making frameworks for handling tradeoffs; (4) evaluate when a multispecies modelling approach may be more appropriate; (5) tailor the multispecies model to a clearly defined purpose; (6) develop interdisciplinary solutions to promoting multispecies model applications; (7) make guidelines available for multispecies model review and application; and (8) ensure code and models are well documented and reproducible. These recommendations draw from a global assemblage of subject matter experts who participated in a workshop entitled “Multispecies Modeling Applications in Fisheries Management”.

The production of this report was carried out through the HELCOM Project for the development of the Third Holistic Assessment of the Baltic Sea (HOLAS 3). The work builds on the previous assessment (HOLAS II) and methodologies, evaluations and assessments included in this report have been directly contributed to by the HELCOM BLUES project, the Baltic Data Flows project, the COMPLETE project, the COMPLETE PLUS project, and the PreEMPT project.

Sharks and rays are important components of marine biodiversity. This together with their life history with slow growth, late maturation and large asymptotic size makes them candidates for biodiversity indicators under descriptor 1 of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. However, the assessment of their abundance and occurrence in the fishery is complicated by expected poor species identification. Further, landings of skates and rays (Rajidae) have historically often been reported as “wings” in commercial landings, rendering the catches by species unknown. For sharks, many species are easier to identify visually, but some, such as Mustelus asterias (starry smoothhound) and Mustelus mustelus (common smoothhound) can be difficult to distinguish from each other. These difficulties mean that the Danish monitoring undertaken prior to the previous MSFD assessments could not support the evaluation of the impacts of fishing on individual species. This report aims to ensure that the species composition of sharks and rays in the Danish commercial fishery can be assessed going forward, and that Denmark can fulfil the obligations of the common fisheries policy and the marine strategy directive. This was approached through developing and testing DNA-based monitoring of by-catch of sharks and rays in the Danish commercial fishery and providing a knowledge base for risk-based management in relation to unintentional by-catch of sharks and rays. The project is divided into two components, mapping of the species composition of rays and selected sharks in the Danish fishery and an analysis of the catches of skates and rays in the Danish fishery. The mapping of species composition is confirmed by tissue samples from rays and selected shark species during observer trips on commercial fishing vessels and samples at landing sites. A risk-based analysis combines results from the genetic analysis with the observer and landing data to rank fisheries and gear

This report aims to investigate the available tools for predicting the impact of various spatial management options on fisheries distribution, yield, profitability, and selectivity. Such spatial plans may affect the remaining ‘fishable’ areas by displacing and concentrating the fishing pressure, and so may alter stock abundances, distributions, size- and species catch composition and fuel expenditure and cost. The report provides early insights into how spatial plans that exclude certain fishing activities may affect these outcomes. Spatially explicit approaches are used, along with scenarios of underlying stock productivities and distributions, to assess the performance of spatial management measures. Scenario-based testing is conducted to examine the interrelated effects of management options and stock productivity. A major aspect of the work involved gathering and organizing information on specific zones from several sources such as Natura2000, CDDA, SPA, SAC, and UK-defined areas. We found that most of these zones did not have any previous management plans in place that would outline fishing restrictions. Therefore, we developed a method of assigning limitations to certain fishing techniques based on the perceived vulnerability of specific areas to these practices. This approach has allowed for an examination of how these restrictions potentially affect fish and fisheries. Initially, we used a static approach in anticipating the potential fishing effort displacement to measure the impact of fishing in the Northeast Atlantic area. Our research shows that while such spatial management measures may reduce fishing opportunities, it may be possible to offset in the short term some of these spatial opportunity losses by fishing in nearby locations (Figure 1). On the Med side, an analysis of fishing effort displacement from restricted areas in the Adriatic Sea is exemplified in a before/after situation, showing that the effort is not reduced but redistr

The ICES herring assessment working group (HAWG) met online for nine days in March 2023 to assess the state of six herring (Clupea harengus) and three sprat (Sprattus sprattus) stocks. Additionally, HAWG provided advice for eight Sandeel (Ammodytes spp.) in January 2023. The working group conducted update category 1 assessments for four of the herring stocks and category 3 assessments for 2 herring stocks. An analytical assessment was performed for the combined North Sea and Division 3.a sprat, and data limited assessment (ICES category 3) was conducted for English Channel sprat (spr.27.7de). Biennial advice is given for sprat in the Celtic Seas and West of Scotland with advice provided in 2023. North Sea autumn spawning herring (her.27.3a47d). SSB in 2022 was estimated at 1.65 million tonnes while F 2–6 in 2021 was estimated at 0.23, which is below FMSY. Recruitment in 2022 is at its highest since 2014, which is expected to contribute positively to SSB levels from 2024 onwards. ICES considers that the stock is still in a low productivity phase. Western Baltic spring-spawning herring (her.27.20-24). SSB in 2022 was estimated at 75,548 tonnes and is below MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim. Recruitment has been low since 2007 and has been deteriorating further with time. F3-6 has been decreasing since 2018 and is now week below FMSY (0.31) at 0.05. The stock has decreased consistently during the second half of the 2000s and given the continued low recruitments, the stock is not able to recover above Blim unless a drastic reduction in fishing effort is applied for several years. Celtic Sea autumn and winter spawning stock (her.27.irls). SSB in 2022 was estimated at 16,539 tonnes, though is increasing from its lowest level seen in 2018 (6,474 tonnes), but remains below Blim (34,000 tonnes). F(2-5 rings) in 2022 was estima

The objective of WKFISHDISH2 was to develop a standardized and open-source way of routinely using trawl survey data to produce distribution maps which can be easily updated. To do so, workshop participants (i) reviewed models that can produce distribution maps from survey data in DATRAS and MEDITS formats, (ii) considered best practice guidance for data, and models, (iii) implemented best practice to produce distribution maps in a transparent manner, and (iv) populated an ICES repository with distribution maps and associated scripts. Nine models were reviewed, seven of which were considered appropriate to produce distribution maps using survey data. The two models excluded failed to estimate gear standardization factors. Best practice for data should consider the following: correct/remove erroneous observations, account for changes in haul duration/timing affecting catchability, use species-specific modelled areas, remove gears/surveys with no observations to reduce model converging time, and include appropriate explanatory variables. A step-by-step list to preprocess survey data was provided. Best practice for models should consider the following: account for skewed distribution of survey data by exploring different statistical error distributions, use open-source models able to reproduce distributions from simulated data, consider the complexity of the model required vs. the run-time (e.g. number of knots), avoid extrapolating the model to areas/depths where the species is not observed, and perform relevant model diagnostics/model selection. To compare distribution estimated by different models, the SPAtial EFficiency metric (SPAEF) was used together with centres of gravity, biomass hot spots (90 th percentile), and effective occupied areas. All seven models were able to produce satisfactory distribution maps for at least one species within the workshop time constraints, both with DATRAS data in the Atlantic and the MEDITS data in the Mediterranean. Comparisons be

We studied the ten most frequently encountered litter items from the seafloor in European seas to advance actions and inform future mitigation measures to reduce marine litter and the associated social, economic and environmental impacts it has on European seas and beyond. Data were collected during trawl surveys from 2012 to 2020 as part of national and regional marine litter monitoring programmes in the Greater North Sea (5652 trawls), Celtic Seas (3505), Bay of Biscay (651), and Baltic Sea (3688). A Bayesian approach is used to quantify the variation in the item rankings. Overall, plastic items predominate in the top positions in each area. Synthetic rope, plastic sheets, monofilament fishing line and plastic bags occupy four of the top five positions for each of the Greater North Sea, Celtic Seas and the Bay of Biscay. Items from fishing and rope (representing mainly other maritime activities) are strongly represented in the top ten lists from three of our four areas, with synthetic rope, fishing nets, and tangled and untangled monofilament fishing line listed in the top seven positions for the Greater North Sea, Celtic Seas and the Bay of Biscay. The top ten items in the Baltic Sea are of a different profile to the other regions, but the most commonly caught items are still predominantly plastic, with plastic sheets, other plastic items and plastic bags occupying three of the top four positions. The findings in this study highlight the need to address sea-based sources to try and eliminate litter from fishing and maritime activities. Measures such as improved port reception facilities, marking of fishing gear, promoting reporting of the loss of fishing gear and increasing public awareness should be introduced.

The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) Technical Group on Marine Litter developed the on monitoring of marine litter in European s in 2013 to enable EU Member States to launch monitoring programmes for MSFD Descriptor 10: no harm caused by marine litter . The maturity of methodological protocols for marine litter monitoring has increased over the last 10 years, based on research advances and M efforts.This document updates the previous guidance to facilitate the harmonisation of the monitoring framework for the MSFD, including protocols, recommendations, and information required to increase the comparability of data and assessments among Member States. The document comprises chapters dedicated to the protocols for monitoring marine litter across different marine environmental compartments (i.e. the coastline/beach, the surface layer of the water column, the seafloor/seabed) and types of litter (i.e. macro litter, mesolitter, microlitter, ingested litter and microlitter by biota, and entanglement with litter).

The implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management requires knowledge on the ecological impact of fishing activities on species and their habitats – those both targeted and not targeted by fisheries. To identify whichecological impacts are key and what is known about them, SEAwise consulted stakeholders through European Advisory Councils and conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature to map the available knowledge and evidence. Specific reference was given to the bycatch of Protected, Endangered and Threatened (PET) species, benthic habitats, food webs and biodiversity, and impact from fisheries-related litter and ghost nets. At the stakeholder consultations, sharks and/or elasmobranchs, turtles, species interactions, and seals or marine mammals were identified as top ranked in at least three out of the five regions. Other terms identified by at least two Case Study regions were: seabirds, sensitive species, benthic habitats, litter, PET species, invasive species and species interactions.Relevant data were extracted from 549 retained papers. The majority of studies were conducted in the Mediterranean Sea, whereas only few papers reported on fishing impacts in the Baltic Sea (see figure below). Bony fish (teleosts) and benthos were the most studied ecosystem components in all Case Study regions, whereas marine mammals and cartilaginous fish were often studied in relation to bycatch of PET species. Out of the 549 papers, most of them were related to fishing impacts on food webs and biodiversity and benthic habitats, followed bybycatch of PET species and other fishing impact studies (not related to any task). Fewest studies were related to the impact of fisheries-related litter and ghost nets. Demersal trawls were by far the most studied gear in studies on commercial fishing impacts. For recreational fisheries, hooks and lines, in particular angling, was the most studied fishing activity. Among the items identified by the stakeholders, marine ma

An ecosystem approach to fisheries management requires the consideration of commercial species as components of an ecosystem and the acknowledgement of the links between their productivity and the surrounding environment. To provide a knowledge base for such links, SEAwise consulted stakeholders throughout Europe and conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature. The systematic review resulted in 2050 articles from the literature search that were screened for their tile and abstract. 516 of them were retained for data extraction. The majority of studies were conducted in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, followed by the Western Waters, and with only a few dozen papers in the Mediterranean Sea. Cod and herring were the most studied species, temperature and more generally climate and hydrodynamics indicators were the main drivers investigated, and reproduction was the main productivity-related process. The output of the systematic review is a database of scientific articles organised by regions, species, environmental drivers and productivity-associated processes and where outcomes, but also spatial and time scales, analytical methods etc. are described in a standardised fashion. This database will be analysed in the coming months and used in the downstream tasks of WP3. The most frequently driver identified by stakeholders across regions was climate change followed by species interactions, cod, pollution, commercial fish/shellfish and plankton. Climate change effects on stocks through temperature and salinity are relatively well covered in the literature as are effects of plankton and species interaction. Studies of the effects of pollution do not occur frequently and as a consequence require a dedicated effort is made in SEAwise to remedy this. Species reported frequently by the stakeholders included cod, seabass, sardine, sole, crabs, flatfish, Norway lobster, octopus, shrimps, herring, sprat, anchovy, hake, new species (species increasing in abundance

The correct prediction of the shape and strength of density dependence in productivity is key to predicting future stock development and providing the best possible long-term fisheries management advice. Here, we identify unbiased estimators of the relationship between somatic growth, recruitment and density, and apply these to 80 stocks in the Northeast Atlantic. The analyses revealed density-dependent recruitment in 68% of the stocks. Excluding pelagic stocks exhibiting significant trends in spawning stock biomass, the probability of significant density dependence was even higher at 78%. The relationships demonstrated that at the commonly used biomass limit of 0.2 times maximum spawning stock size, only 32% of the stocks attained three quarters of their maximum recruitment. This leaves 68% of the stocks with less than three quarters of their maximum recruitment at this biomass limit. Significantly lower recruitment at high stock size than at intermediate stock size was seen in 38% of the stocks. Density dependence in late growth occurred in 54% of the stocks, whereas early growth was generally density-independent. Pelagic stocks were less likely to exhibit density dependence in recruitment than demersal and benthic stocks. We recommend that both the degree to which productivity is related to density and the degree to which the relationship changes over time should be investigated. Both of these aspects should be considered in evaluations of whether sustainability and yield can be improved by including density dependence in forecasts of the effects of different management actions.

The USA, EU, and Canada established a trilateral working group on the ecosystem approach to ocean health and stressors, under the Atlantic Ocean Research Alliance. Recognizing the Atlantic Ocean as a shared resource and responsibility, the working group sought to advance understanding of the Atlantic Ocean and its dynamic systems to improve ocean health, enhance ocean stewardship, and promote the sustainable use and management of its resources. This included consideration of multiple ocean-use sectors such as fishing, shipping, tourism and offshore energy. The working group met for 4 years and worked through eight steps that covered the development of common language as a basis for collaboration, challenges of stakeholder engagement, review of the governance mandates, exploring the links between sectors and ecosystems effects, identifying gaps in knowledge and uptake of science, identification of tools for ecosystem based management, customary best practice for tool development and communication of key research priorities. The key findings were that ecosystem-based management enables new benefits and opportunities, and that we need to make the business case. That adequate mandates and effective tools exist for ecosystem-based management, and that ecosystem-based management urgently requires integration of human dimensions, so we must diversify the conversation. Also that stakeholders don't see their stake in ecosystem based management, so greater engagement with stakeholders and targeting of ocean literacy is required and that a sustainable future requires a sustained investment in ecosystem-based management, so long term commitment is key. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

This report summarises the key activities under SEAwise WP1: Knowledge Exchange and Integration, Task 1.4, Communications and Outreach, from the period October 2022 – March 2023. The critical activities undertaken during this period include the creation of a project website, drafting of project communications and social media strategies, and support to establish a synthesised base of communications across the project. Outputs from these activities are attached to this report in the Annexes.

This report describes the SEAwise data procedures and guidelines with the aim to increase the awareness about the data collected, processed and stored in the project, to ensure that all relevant data collected and used in the project is available in a well-documented, discoverable, standardised and easily accessible form, to give information on data quality and sampling protocols and, to clearly state the usage rights on the different data and to ensure use and handling of data is in accordance with Regulation 2016/679 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data (General Data Protection Regulation, GDPR). Sharing research knowledge and data is integral to the SEAwise project and this is attained through implementing the FAIR principles, employing dedicated quality assurance processes and carefully considering ethical aspects of knowledge and data storing and sharing.

The ecosystem approach to fisheries management is a key element in the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). In light of the importance of the North Sea to the Danish fisheries, Denmark needs to take a leading role in the development of best practice and methods for the implementation of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management. The ECOMAN project consisted of five separate work packages. WP1: Sampling designs should ensure the provision of accurate data on biological parameters and stock information to be used as input to single-species assessments and multi-species models. Via this project, we were able to engage in discussions and thereby influence the development of data collection approaches. WP2: The productivity of fish stocks in the North Sea has undergone substantial changes in recent decades, with some species increasing in numbers, while other species have shown prolonged recruitment failure with a resulting decline in stock size. Here we investigated multiple aspects of stock productivity in order to identify important drivers, such as density dependent regulation and spawner quality; all of which are ecological processes not accounted for conventional stock-by-stock fisheries management. Also methods for estimating biomass reference points were scrutinized and changes over time in the environmental conditions were visited. The latter results provided a basis for improving how reference points are defined and which processes needs further attention (i.e. in management strategy evaluations). WP3: Natural mortality is a key component of estimation of historical stock development and the setting of reference points such as Bescapement, MSY Btrigger, FMSY and Fcap. The natural mortality varies considerably over time, and particularly the mortality introduced by grey seal and mackerel has increased for North Sea fish stocks in the most recent decades. The present project was used to built an application that allow scientists and stak

The ICES Workshop on ICES reference points (WKREF2) was tasked review the WKREF1 report and based on the outcome develop updated guidelines for the ICES reference points system and recommendations for ACOM consideration. The WKREF1 report has suggested 5 key recommendations to simplify and harmonise the ICES reference points framework representing a major change to the current guidelines. At WKREF2, we detailed discussions and four key concerns were raised about the proposed approach. The first related to the simplification of rules to define Blim. Around two thirds of category 1 stocks would end up as WKREF1 “Blim Type 2” where Blim would be set as a fraction of B0. The Allee effect or “depensation” maybe more important than previously thought and should be furthered explored for ICES stocks since it has important consequences for Blim. A number of challenges and issues around defining Blim using the current guidelines were documented. Some suggestions on improvement criteria were discussed including using classifiers to define spasmodic stocks and using change point algorithms to address non-stationary productivity regimes. However, further work is need to make these approaches operational and there was no consensus that the WKREF1 Blim types should replace the current guidelines. WKREF1 recommended that the FMSY proxy should be based on a biological proxies and should be less than the deterministic FMSY. It was pointed out that the stochastic FMSY estimated in EqSim for example, is lower than the deterministic FMSY and that the current guidelines ensure that the FMSY should not pose a more than 5% risk to Blim. A large amount of work described in WD 1 was carried out to develop an MSE framework to consistency and robustness test a candidate reference point system for North East Atlantic stocks. However, WKREF2 recommended tha

An ecosystem approach to fisheries management requires the consideration of spatially explicit management measures and other impacts on species and the links between the distribution of fished species, their surrounding environment and productivity. Quantification of the spatial aspects of fisheries and ecology of commercially fished stocks may improve the accuracy of the predicted changes in fish productivity, fisheries yield and costs, benefits and selectivity. To provide a knowledge base for spatially explicit considerations, SEAwise consulted stakeholders throughout Europe and conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature. As a first step, engagement with relevant stakeholder groups in each Case Study identified key issues of relevance to spatial management. The input from this stakeholder consultation was supplemented by a systematic literature review with careful consideration of the objectives, search terms, inclusion/exclusion criteria, the method for data/knowledge extraction and ultimately how these data and knowledge will be used. The purpose of the task was to quantify the key drivers and pressures behind the changes occurring in commercial fish stocks and fisheries distribution that have a spatially explicit content, map the relevant existing scientific knowledge and provide input to the subsequent SEAwise tasks. The words identified by the stakeholders consulted focused on factors causing changes to the distribution of commercial fish/shellfish (climate change, MPAs, species interactions, pollution, habitats and invasive species) and fisheries (windfarms, MPAs, Marine spatial planning) as well as the other human impacts. The systematic review extracted data from 331 papers. The most frequently studied topic was the distribution of fish and the region with most papers was the North Sea with about the twice the amount of papers in each of the other regions. The most frequently studied species in the literature were cod, hake and plaice and b