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High-resolution flood probability maps are essential for addressing the limitations of existing flood risk assessment approaches but are often limited by the availability of historical event data. Also, producing simulated data needed for creating probabilistic flood maps using physics-based models involves significant computation and time effort inhibiting the feasibility. To address this gap, this study introduces Flood-Precip GAN (Flood-Precipitation Generative Adversarial Network), a novel methodology that leverages generative machine learning to simulate large-scale synthetic inundation data to produce probabilistic flood maps. With a focus on Harris County, Texas, Flood-Precip GAN begins with training a cell-wise depth estimator using a limited number of physics-based model-generated precipitation-flood events. This model, which emphasizes precipitation-based features, outperforms universal models. Subsequently, a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with constraints is employed to conditionally generate synthetic precipitation records. Strategic thresholds are established to filter these records, ensuring close alignment with true precipitation patterns. For each cell, synthetic events are smoothed using a K-nearest neighbors algorithm and processed through the depth estimator to derive synthetic depth distributions. By iterating this procedure and after generating 10,000 synthetic precipitation-flood events, we construct flood probability maps in various formats, considering different inundation depths. Validation through similarity and correlation metrics confirms the fidelity of the synthetic depth distributions relative to true data. Flood-Precip GAN provides a scalable solution for generating synthetic flood depth data needed to create high-resolution flood probability maps, significantly enhancing flood preparedness and mitigation efforts.

The recovery of businesses after a disaster is vital to community economic resilience, yet the network dynamics influencing the speed and spillover effects of recovery remain poorly understood. Understanding these dynamics is essential for characterizing economic resilience and informing more effective recovery policies. This study explores the extent to which post-disaster business recovery is shaped by network diffusion processes within pre-disaster business dependency networks, driven by visitation behaviors among business points of interest (POIs). We developed a network diffusion model to simulate recovery across businesses in the Louisiana Gulf Coast following Hurricane Ida (2021) and assessed its performance using empirical data. Our analysis focuses on four key areas: (1) the presence of a diffusion process influencing recovery across the business network; (2) variations in how different business types depend on others for recovery; (3) identification of recovery multiplier businesses that accelerate regional recovery; and (4) differences in recovery multipliers across high- and low-income areas. The findings reveal that business recovery is governed by diffusion dynamics in these behavior-based networks, with recovery speed closely linked to pre-disaster visitation patterns. Retail and service businesses are identified as key recovery multipliers whose rapid recovery accelerates the broader business network's recovery, enhancing economic resilience. Additionally, recovery multipliers vary between high- and low-income areas. This study enhances our understanding of network mechanisms in post-disaster recovery and offers valuable insights for improving recovery policies., Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures

Despite significant anecdotal evidence regarding the vulnerability of the U.S. power infrastructure, there is a dearth of longitudinal and nation-level characterization of the spatial and temporal patterns in the frequency and extent of power outages. A data-driven national-level characterization of power outage vulnerability is particularly essential for understanding the urgency and formulating policies to promote the resilience of power infrastructure systems. Recognizing this, we retrieved 179,053,397 county-level power outage records with a 15-minute interval across 3,022 US counties during 2014-2023 to capture power outage characteristics. We focus on three dimensions--power outage intensity, frequency, and duration--and develop multiple metrics to quantify each dimension of power outage vulnerability. The results show that in the past ten years, the vulnerability of U.S. power system has consistently been increasing. Counties experienced an average of 999.4 outages over the decade, affecting an average of more than 540,000 customers per county, with disruptions occurring approximately every week. Coastal areas, particularly in California, Florida and New Jersey, faced more frequent and prolonged outages, while inland regions showed higher outage rates. A concerning increase in outage frequency and intensity was noted, especially after 2017, with a sharp rise in prolonged outages since 2019. The research also found positive association between social vulnerability and outage metrics, with the association becoming stronger over the years under study. Areas with higher social vulnerability experienced more severe and frequent outages, exacerbating challenges in these regions. These findings reveal the much-needed empirical evidence for stakeholders to inform policy formulation and program development for enhancing the resilience of the U.S. power infrastructure.

This study presents a granular analysis of societal recovery from disasters at the individual level, focusing on the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Ida. Societal recovery is defined as the restoration of the societal functioning of the affected community to its normal/steady-state level. It evaluates the recovery of impacted residents based on fluctuations in their lifestyle patterns in visits to points of interest. The analysis focuses on: (1) the extent of heterogeneity in lifestyle recovery of residents in the same spatial area; and (2) the extent to which variations in lifestyle recovery and its heterogeneity among users can be explained based on hazard impact extent and social vulnerability. As lifestyle recovery progresses, heterogeneity diminishes, indicating that lower lifestyle recovery rates correlate with higher heterogeneity within a spatial area. This relationship between lifestyle recovery and heterogeneity can lead to the misestimation of recovery timelines, potentially resulting in the inefficient allocation of resources and disproportionate attention to already recovering communities. Key contributions of the study are fourfold: First, it characterizes societal recovery at the finest scale by examining fluctuations in individual lifestyles, revealing heterogeneity even among neighbors. Second, it proposes using individual lifestyle as an indicator of societal functioning to measure, more human centrically, disaster impacts and recovery speeds. Third, it introduces a method for quantifying lifestyle recovery that enables near-real-time monitoring, departing from traditional survey-based methods. Fourth, it provides empirical insights into the relationship between disaster impacts and societal recovery, showing that the severity of disaster impacts and resident income levels and percentage of minority populations influence recovery durations., Comment: 41 pages, 9 Figures, 4 Tables

Understanding sequential community recovery milestones is crucial for proactive recovery planning and monitoring. This study investigates these milestones related to population activities to examine their temporal interdependencies and evaluate the relationship between recovery milestones and physical (residential property damage) and social vulnerability (household income). This study leverages post-2017 Hurricane Harvey mobility data from Harris County to specify and analyze temporal recovery milestones and their interdependencies. The analysis examined four key milestones: return to evacuated areas, recovery of essential and nonessential services, and the rate of home-switch (moving out of residences). Robust linear regression validates interdependencies between across milestone lags and sequences: achieving earlier milestones accelerates subsequent recovery milestones. The study thus identifies six primary recovery milestone sequences. We found that social vulnerability accounted through the median household income level, rather than physical vulnerability to flooding accounted through the property damage extent, correlates with recovery delays between milestones. We studied variations in recovery sequences across lower and upper quantiles of property damage extent and median household income: lower property damage extent and lower household income show greater representation in the (slowest to recover) sequence, while households with greater damage and higher income are predominant in the group with the (fastest recovery sequences). Milestone sequence variability aligns closely with social vulnerability, independent of physical vulnerability. Understanding the variation in recovery sequences, milestone interdependencies, and social vulnerability disparities provides crucial evidence for targeted interventions., Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures

In the field of crisis/disaster informatics, social media is increasingly being used for improving situational awareness to inform response and relief efforts. Efficient and accurate text classification tools have been a focal area of investigation in crisis informatics. However, current methods mostly rely on single-label text classification models, which fails to capture different insights embedded in dynamic and multifaceted disaster-related social media data. This study introduces a novel approach to disaster text classification by enhancing a pre-trained Large Language Model (LLM) through instruction fine-tuning targeted for multi-label classification of disaster-related tweets. Our methodology involves creating a comprehensive instruction dataset from disaster-related tweets, which is then used to fine-tune an open-source LLM, thereby embedding it with disaster-specific knowledge. This fine-tuned model can classify multiple aspects of disaster-related information simultaneously, such as the type of event, informativeness, and involvement of human aid, significantly improving the utility of social media data for situational awareness in disasters. The results demonstrate that this approach enhances the categorization of critical information from social media posts, thereby facilitating a more effective deployment for situational awareness during emergencies. This research paves the way for more advanced, adaptable, and robust disaster management tools, leveraging the capabilities of LLMs to improve real-time situational awareness and response strategies in disaster scenarios.

Near-real time estimation of damage to buildings and infrastructure, referred to as damage nowcasting in this study, is crucial for empowering emergency responders to make informed decisions regarding evacuation orders and infrastructure repair priorities during disaster response and recovery. Here, we introduce FloodDamageCast, a machine learning framework tailored for property flood damage nowcasting. The framework leverages heterogeneous data to predict residential flood damage at a resolution of 500 meters by 500 meters within Harris County, Texas, during the 2017 Hurricane Harvey. To deal with data imbalance, FloodDamageCast incorporates a generative adversarial networks-based data augmentation coupled with an efficient machine learning model. The results demonstrate the model's ability to identify high-damage spatial areas that would be overlooked by baseline models. Insights gleaned from flood damage nowcasting can assist emergency responders to more efficiently identify repair needs, allocate resources, and streamline on-the-ground inspections, thereby saving both time and effort., Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures

Infrastructure systems play a critical role in providing essential products and services for the functioning of modern society; however, they are vulnerable to disasters and their service disruptions can cause severe societal impacts. To protect infrastructure from disasters and reduce potential impacts, great achievements have been made in modeling interdependent infrastructure systems in past decades. In recent years, scholars have gradually shifted their research focus to understanding and modeling societal impacts of disruptions considering the fact that infrastructure systems are critical because of their role in societal functioning, especially under situations of modern societies. Exploring how infrastructure disruptions impair society to enhance resilient city has become a key field of study. By comprehensively reviewing relevant studies, this paper demonstrated the definition and types of societal impact of infrastructure disruptions, and summarized the modeling approaches into four types: extended infrastructure modeling approaches, empirical approaches, agent-based approaches, and big data-driven approaches. For each approach, this paper organized relevant literature in terms of modeling ideas, advantages, and disadvantages. Furthermore, the four approaches were compared according to several criteria, including the input data, types of societal impact, and application scope. Finally, this paper illustrated the challenges and future research directions in the field.

Examining the relationship between vulnerability of the built environment and community recovery is crucial for understanding disaster resilience. Yet, this relationship is rather neglected in the existing literature due to previous limitations in the availability of empirical datasets needed for such analysis. In this study, we combine fine-resolution flood damage claims data (composed of both insured and uninsured losses) and human mobility data (composed of millions of movement trajectories) during the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas, to specify the extent to which vulnerability of the built environment (i.e., flood property damage) affects community recovery (based on the speed of human mobility recovery) locally and regionally. We examine this relationship using a spatial lag, spatial reach, and spatial decay models to measure the extent of spillover effects of residential damage on community recovery. The findings show that: first, the severity of residential damage significantly affects the speed of community recovery. A greater extent of residential damage suppresses community recovery not only locally but also in the surrounding areas. Second, the spatial spillover effect of residential damage on community recovery speed decays with distance from the highly damaged areas. Third, spatial areas display heterogeneous spatial decay coefficients, which are associated with urban structure features such as the density of points-of-interest facilities and roads. These findings provide a novel data-driven characterization of the spatial diffusion of residential flood damage effects on community recovery and move us closer to a better understanding of complex spatial processes that shape community resilience to hazards. This study also provides valuable insights for emergency managers and public officials seeking to mitigate the non-local effects of residential damage.

Street view imagery, aided by advancements in image quality and accessibility, has emerged as a valuable resource for urban analytics research. Recent studies have explored its potential for estimating lowest floor elevation (LFE), offering a scalable alternative to traditional on-site measurements, crucial for assessing properties' flood risk and damage extent. While existing methods rely on object detection, the introduction of image segmentation has broadened street view images' utility for LFE estimation, although challenges still remain in segmentation quality and capability to distinguish front doors from other doors. To address these challenges in LFE estimation, this study integrates the Segment Anything model, a segmentation foundation model, with vision language models to conduct text-prompt image segmentation on street view images for LFE estimation. By evaluating various vision language models, integration methods, and text prompts, we identify the most suitable model for street view image analytics and LFE estimation tasks, thereby improving the availability of the current LFE estimation model based on image segmentation from 33% to 56% of properties. Remarkably, our proposed method significantly enhances the availability of LFE estimation to almost all properties in which the front door is visible in the street view image. Also the findings present the first baseline and comparison of various vision models of street view image-based LFE estimation. The model and findings not only contribute to advancing street view image segmentation for urban analytics but also provide a novel approach for image segmentation tasks for other civil engineering and infrastructure analytics tasks.

Flash flooding events, with their intense and sudden nature, present unique challenges for disaster researchers and emergency planners. To quantify the extent to which hotspots of flash flooding share similar social and physical features, the research uses community scale crowdsourced data and k means clustering. Crowdsourced data offers the potential to allocate limited resources, to improve spatial understanding, and to minimize the future effects of natural hazards. The research evaluates the impacts of Tropical Storm Imelda on Houston Metropolitan and Hurricane Ida on New York City. It develops a combined flash flood impact index based on FEMA claims, 311 calls, and Waze traffic reports which is able to capture a combination of crowdsourced data for the societal impact of flash flooding. In addition, k means clustering offers an essential tool for evaluating attributes associated with flash flooding events by grouping data into k number clusters of features. Thus, k means clustering evaluates the significance of a community's socio demographic, social capital, and physical features to the combined flood impact index. To ensure accessibility and replicability to different types of communities, our research uses publicly available datasets to understand how socio demographic data, social capital, and physical connectivity and development affect flash flood resilience. The findings reveal the intricate relationships associated with flash flooding impact as a combination of socio demographic and physical features. For instance, the cluster with the highest scores of the flash flood impact index from Tropical Storm Imelda had the highest percentage of minority population and lower income while the cluster with the second highest score flash flood impact index had the highest percentage of impervious surface and number of POIs., Comment: 22 pages, 6 Figures, 3 Tables

There is a limitation in the literature of data-driven analyses for the ex-post evaluation of community risk and resilience, particularly using features related to the performance of coupled human-infrastructure systems. To address this gap, in this study we created a machine learning-based method for the ex-post assessment of community risk and resilience and their interplay based on features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance. Utilizing feature groups related to population protective actions, infrastructure/building performance features, and recovery features, we examined the risk and resilience performance of communities in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. These features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance were processed using the K-means clustering method to classify census block groups into four distinct clusters then, based on feature analysis, these clusters were labeled and designated into four quadrants of risk-resilience archetypes. Finally, we analyzed the disparities in risk-resilience status of spatial areas across different clusters as well as different income groups. The findings unveil the risk-resilience status of spatial areas shaped by their coupled human-infrastructure systems performance and their interactions. The results also inform about features that contribute to high resilience in high-risk areas. For example, the results indicate that in high-risk areas, evacuation rates contributed to a greater resilience, while in low-risk areas, preparedness contributed to greater resilience.

Understanding the fundamental characteristics that shape the inherent flood risk disposition of urban areas is critical for integrated urban design strategies for flood risk reduction. Flood risk disposition specifies an inherent and event-independent magnitude of property flood risk and measures the extent to which urban areas are susceptible to property damage if exposed to a weather hazard. This study presents FloodGenome as an interpretable machine learning model for evaluation of the extent to which various hydrological, topographic, and built-environment features and their interactions shape flood risk disposition in urban areas. Using flood damage claims data from the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program covering the period 2003 through 2023 across four metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), the analysis computes building damage ratios and flood claim counts by employing k-means clustering for classifying census block groups (CBGs) into distinct property flood risk disposition levels. Then a random forest model is created to specify property flood risk levels of CBGs based on various intertwined hydrological, topographic, and built-environment features. The model transferability analysis results show consistent performance across MSAs, revealing the universality of underlying features that shape city property flood risks. The FloodGenome model is then used to:(1) evaluate the extent to which future urban development would exacerbate flood risk disposition of urban areas; and (2) specify property flood risk levels at finer spatial resolution providing critical insights for flood risk management processes. The FloodGenome model and the findings provide novel tools and insights for improving the characterization and understanding of intertwined features that shape flood risk profiles of cities.

Inspired by ideas from health risk assessment, this paper presents a new perspective for flood risk assessment. The proposed perspective focuses on three pillars for examining flood risk: (1) inherent susceptibility, (2) mitigation strategies, and (3) external stressors. These pillars collectively encompass the physical and environmental characteristics of urban areas, the effectiveness of human-intervention measures, and the influence of uncontrollable external factors, offering a fresh point of view for decoding flood risks. For each pillar, we delineate its individual contributions to flood risk and illustrate their interactive and overall impact. The three-pillars model embodies a shift in focus from the quest to precisely model and quantify flood risk to evaluating pathways to high flood risk. The shift in perspective is intended to alleviate the quest for quantifying and predicting flood risk at fine resolutions as a panacea for enhanced flood risk management. The decomposition of flood risk pathways into the three intertwined pillars (i.e., inherent factors, mitigation factors, and external factors) enables evaluation of changes in factors within each pillar enhance and exacerbate flood risk, creating a platform from which to inform plans, decisions, and actions. Building on this foundation, we argue that a flood risk pathway analysis approach, which examines the individual and collective impacts of inherent factors, mitigation strategies, and external stressors, is essential for a nuanced evaluation of flood risk. Accordingly, the proposed perspective could complement the existing frameworks and approaches for flood risk assessment.

Examining the impact of disasters on life activities of populations is critical for understanding community resilience dynamics, yet it remains insufficiently studied in the existing literature. In this study, we leveraged data from more than 1.2 million anonymized human mobility communications across 30 parishes in Louisiana to construct a temporal network that tracks visitation to places from which we characterized human lifestyle signatures before, during, and after Hurricane Ida in 2021. Utilizing the motif model, we distilled complex human lifestyles into identifiable patterns and clustered them into classes: commute, healthcare, dining out, and youth-oriented lifestyle. We defined two metrics to evaluate disruption and recovery fluctuations in lifestyle patterns during the perturbation period compared to the steady period: 1) frequency (daily number of motifs), and 2) proximity (daily average distance of motifs). The results indicate significant dynamics in lifestyle patterns due to the hurricane, with essential facilities (e.g., healthcare) demonstrating a swift recovery. The study underscores the heterogeneity of locations visited and the necessity of integrating both essential and non-essential facilities into disaster response initiatives. Furthermore, our study reveals sustained changes in lifestyle patterns, highlighting the long-term impact of the hurricane on daily life. These insights demonstrate the significance of examining lifestyle signatures and their fluctuations in evaluating disaster resilience patterns for affected communities. The outcomes of this study are poised to aid emergency managers and public officials to more effectively evaluate and monitor disaster impacts and recovery based on changes in lifestyle patterns in the community.

The objective of this study is to characterize inequality in infrastructure quality across urban areas. While a growing of body of literature has recognized the importance of characterizing infrastructure inequality in cities and provided quantified metrics to inform urban development plans, the majority of the existing approaches focus primarily on measuring the quantity of infrastructure, assuming that more infrastructure is better. Also, the existing research focuses primarily on index-based approaches in which the status of infrastructure provision in urban areas is determined based on assumed subjective weights. The focus on infrastructure quantity and use of indices obtained from subjective weights has hindered the ability to properly examine infrastructure inequality as it pertains to urban inequality and environmental justice considerations. Recognizing this gap, we propose a machine learning-based approach in which infrastructure features that shape environmental hazard exposure are identified and we use the weights obtained by the model to calculate an infrastructure quality provision for spatial areas of cities and accordingly, quantify the extent of inequality in infrastructure quality. The implementation of the model in five metropolitan areas in the U.S. demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach in characterizing inequality in infrastructure quality and capturing city-specific differences in the weights of infrastructure features. The results also show that areas in which low-income populations reside have lower infrastructure quality provision, suggesting the lower infrastructure quality provision as a determinant of urban disparities. Accordingly, the proposed approach can be effectively used to inform integrated urban design strategies to promote infrastructure equity and environmental justice based on data-driven and machine intelligence-based insights.

There has been significant progress in improving the performance of graph neural networks (GNNs) through enhancements in graph data, model architecture design, and training strategies. For fairness in graphs, recent studies achieve fair representations and predictions through either graph data pre-processing (e.g., node feature masking, and topology rewiring) or fair training strategies (e.g., regularization, adversarial debiasing, and fair contrastive learning). How to achieve fairness in graphs from the model architecture perspective is less explored. More importantly, GNNs exhibit worse fairness performance compared to multilayer perception since their model architecture (i.e., neighbor aggregation) amplifies biases. To this end, we aim to achieve fairness via a new GNN architecture. We propose \textsf{F}air \textsf{M}essage \textsf{P}assing (FMP) designed within a unified optimization framework for GNNs. Notably, FMP \textit{explicitly} renders sensitive attribute usage in \textit{forward propagation} for node classification task using cross-entropy loss without data pre-processing. In FMP, the aggregation is first adopted to utilize neighbors' information and then the bias mitigation step explicitly pushes demographic group node presentation centers together. In this way, FMP scheme can aggregate useful information from neighbors and mitigate bias to achieve better fairness and prediction tradeoff performance. Experiments on node classification tasks demonstrate that the proposed FMP outperforms several baselines in terms of fairness and accuracy on three real-world datasets. The code is available in {\url{https://github.com/zhimengj0326/FMP}}., Comment: Accepted by AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) 2024. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2202.04187

The resilience of internet service is crucial for ensuring consistent communication, facilitating emergency response in digitally-dependent society. Due to empirical data constraints, there has been limited research on internet service disruptions during extreme weather events. To bridge this gap, this study utilizes observational datasets on internet performance to quantitatively assess extent of internet disruption during two recent extreme weather events. Taking Harris County in United States as study region, we jointly analyzed the hazard severity and the associated internet disruptions in two extreme weather events. The results show that hazard events significantly impacted regional internet connectivity. There exists a pronounced temporal synchronicity between magnitude of disruption and hazard severity: as severity of hazards intensifies, internet disruptions correspondingly escalate, and eventually return to baseline levels post-event. Spatial analyses show internet service disruptions can happen even in areas not directly impacted by hazards, demonstrating that repercussions of hazards extend beyond immediate area of impact. This interplay of temporal synchronization and spatial variance underscores complex relationships between hazard severity and Internet disruption. Socio-demographic analysis suggests vulnerable communities, already grappling with myriad challenges, face exacerbated service disruptions during hazard events, emphasizing the need for prioritized disaster mitigation strategiesfor improving the resilience of internet services. To the best of our knowledge, this research is among the first studies to examine the Internet disruptions during hazardous events using a quantitative observational dataset. Insights obtained hold significant implications for city administrators, guiding them towards more resilient and equitable infrastructure planning.

Community resilience is a complex and muti-faceted phenomenon that emerges from complex and nonlinear interactions among different socio-technical systems and their resilience properties. However, present studies on community resilience focus primarily on vulnerability assessment and utilize index-based approaches, with limited ability to capture heterogeneous features within community socio-technical systems and their nonlinear interactions in shaping robustness, redundancy, and resourcefulness components of resilience. To address this gap, this paper presents an integrated three-layer deep learning model for community resilience rating (called Resili-Net). Twelve measurable resilience features are specified and computed within community socio-technical systems (i.e., facilities, infrastructures, and society) related to three resilience components of robustness, redundancy, and resourcefulness. Using publicly accessible data from multiple metropolitan statistical areas in the United States, Resili-Net characterizes the resilience levels of spatial areas into five distinct levels. The interpretability of the model outcomes enables feature analysis for specifying the determinants of resilience in areas within each resilience level, allowing for the identification of specific resilience enhancement strategies. Changes in community resilience profiles under urban development patterns are further examined by changing the value of related socio-technical systems features. Accordingly, the outcomes provide novel perspectives for community resilience assessment by harnessing machine intelligence and heterogeneous urban big data.

After about a decade of research in this domain, what is missing is a systematic overview of the research agenda across different infrastructures and hazards. It is now imperative to evaluate the current progress and gaps. This paper presents a systematic review of equity literature on disrupted infrastructure during a natural hazard event. Following a systematic review protocol, we collected, screened, and evaluated almost 3,000 studies. Our analysis focuses on the intersection within the dimensions of the eight-dimensional assessment framework that distinguishes focus of the study, methodological approaches, and equity dimensions (distributional-demographic, distributional-spatial, procedural, and capacity equity). To conceptualize the intersection of the different dimensions of equity, we refer to pathways, which identify how equity is constructed, analyzed, and used. Significant findings show that (1) the interest in equity in infrastructure resilience has exponentially increased, (2) the majority of studies are in the US and by extension in the global north, (3) most data collection use descriptive and open-data and none of the international studies use location-intelligence data. The most prominent equity conceptualization is distributional equity, such as the disproportionate impacts to vulnerable populations and spaces. The most common pathways to study equity connect distributional equity to the infrastructure's power, water, and transportation in response to flooding and hurricane storms. Other equity concepts or pathways, such as connections of equity to decision-making and building household capacity, remain understudied. Future research directions include quantifying the social costs of infrastructure disruptions and better integration of equity into resilience decision-making., Comment: 37 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables

The standard model of infrastructure resilience, the resilience triangle, has been the primary way of characterizing and quantifying infrastructure resilience. However, the theoretical model merely provides a one-size-fits-all framework for all infrastructure systems. Most of the existing studies examine the characteristics of infrastructure resilience curves based on analytical models constructed upon simulated system performance. Limited empirical studies hindered our ability to fully understand and predict resilience characteristics in infrastructure systems. To address this gap, this study examined over 200 resilience curves related to power outages in three major extreme weather events. Using unsupervised machine learning, we examined different curve archetypes, as well as the fundamental properties of each resilience curve archetype. The results show two primary archetypes for power system resilience curves, triangular, and trapezoidal curves. Triangular curves characterize resilience behavior based on 1. critical functionality threshold, 2. critical functionality recovery rate, and 3. recovery pivot point. Trapezoidal archetypes explain resilience curves based on 1. duration of sustained function loss and 2. constant recovery rate. The longer the duration of sustained function loss, the slower the constant rate of recovery. The findings of this study provide novel perspectives enabling better understanding and prediction of resilience performance of power system infrastructures.

Understanding the key factors shaping environmental hazard exposures and their associated environmental injustice issues is vital for formulating equitable policy measures. Traditional perspectives on environmental injustice have primarily focused on the socioeconomic dimensions, often overlooking the influence of heterogeneous urban characteristics. This limited view may obstruct a comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of environmental justice and its relationship with urban design features. To address this gap, this study creates an interpretable machine learning model to examine the effects of various urban features and their non-linear interactions to the exposure disparities of three primary hazards: air pollution, urban heat, and flooding. The analysis trains and tests models with data from six metropolitan counties in the United States using Random Forest and XGBoost. The performance is used to measure the extent to which variations of urban features shape disparities in environmental hazard levels. In addition, the analysis of feature importance reveals features related to social-demographic characteristics as the most prominent urban features that shape hazard extent. Features related to infrastructure distribution and land cover are relatively important for urban heat and air pollution exposure respectively. Moreover, we evaluate the models' transferability across different regions and hazards. The results highlight limited transferability, underscoring the intricate differences among hazards and regions and the way in which urban features shape hazard exposures. The insights gleaned from this study offer fresh perspectives on the relationship among urban features and their interplay with environmental hazard exposure disparities, informing the development of more integrated urban design policies to enhance social equity and environmental injustice issues.

Urban flood risk emerges from complex and nonlinear interactions among multiple features related to flood hazard, flood exposure, and social and physical vulnerabilities, along with the complex spatial flood dependence relationships. Existing approaches for characterizing urban flood risk, however, are primarily based on flood plain maps, focusing on a limited number of features, primarily hazard and exposure features, without consideration of feature interactions or the dependence relationships among spatial areas. To address this gap, this study presents an integrated urban flood-risk rating model based on a novel unsupervised graph deep learning model (called FloodRisk-Net). FloodRisk-Net is capable of capturing spatial dependence among areas and complex and nonlinear interactions among flood hazards and urban features for specifying emergent flood risk. Using data from multiple metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States, the model characterizes their flood risk into six distinct city-specific levels. The model is interpretable and enables feature analysis of areas within each flood-risk level, allowing for the identification of the three archetypes shaping the highest flood risk within each MSA. Flood risk is found to be spatially distributed in a hierarchical structure within each MSA, where the core city disproportionately bears the highest flood risk. Multiple cities are found to have high overall flood-risk levels and low spatial inequality, indicating limited options for balancing urban development and flood-risk reduction. Relevant flood-risk reduction strategies are discussed considering ways that the highest flood risk and uneven spatial distribution of flood risk are formed., Comment: 24 pages

Despite recognition of the relationship between infrastructure resilience and community recovery, very limited empirical evidence exists regarding the extent to which the disruptions in and restoration of infrastructure services contribute to the speed of community recovery. To address this gap, this study investigates the relationship between community and infrastructure systems in the context of hurricane impacts, focusing on the recovery dynamics of population activity and power infrastructure restoration. Empirical observational data were utilized to analyze the extent of impact, recovery duration, and recovery types of both systems in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida. The study reveals three key findings. First, power outage duration positively correlates with outage extent until a certain impact threshold is reached. Beyond this threshold, restoration time remains relatively stable regardless of outage magnitude. This finding underscores the need to strengthen power infrastructure, particularly in extreme weather conditions, to minimize outage restoration time. Second, power was fully restored in 70\% of affected areas before population activity levels normalized. This finding suggests the role infrastructure functionality plays in post-disaster community recovery. Interestingly, quicker power restoration did not equate to rapid population activity recovery due to other possible factors such as transportation, housing damage, and business interruptions. Finally, if power outages last beyond two weeks, community activity resumes before complete power restoration, indicating adaptability in prolonged outage scenarios. This implies the capacity of communities to adapt to ongoing power outages and continue daily life activities...

Resilience curves have been the primary approach for conceptualizing and representing the resilience behavior of communities during hazard events; however, the use of resilience curves has remained as a mere conceptual and visual tool with limited data-driven characterization and empirical grounding. Empirical characterizations of resilience curves provide essential insights regarding the manner in which differently impacted systems of communities absorb perturbations and recover from disruptions. To address this gap, this study examines human mobility resilience patterns following multiple weather-related hazard events in the United States by analyzing more than 2000 empirical resilience curves constructed from high-resolution location-based mobility data. These empirical resilience curves are then classified using k-means clustering based on various features into archetypes. Three main archetypes of human mobility resilience are identified: Type I, with rapid recovery after mild impact; Type II, exhibiting bimodal recovery after moderate impact; and Type III, showing slower recovery after severe impact. The results also reveal critical thresholds, such as the bimodal recovery breakpoint at a 20% impact extent, at which the recovery rate decreases, and the critical functional threshold at a 60% impact extent, above which recovery rate would be rather slow. The results show that a critical functional recovery rate of 2.5% per day is necessary to follow the bimodal resilience archetype when impact extent exceeds more than 20%. These findings provide novel and important insights into different resilience curve archetypes and their fundamental properties. Departing from using resilience curves as a mere concept and visual tool, the data-driven specification of resilience curve archetypes and their properties improve our understanding of the resilience patterns...

Timely, accurate, and reliable information is essential for decision-makers, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators during flood events. This study demonstrates a proposed machine learning model, MaxFloodCast, trained on physics-based hydrodynamic simulations in Harris County, offers efficient and interpretable flood inundation depth predictions. Achieving an average R-squared of 0.949 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.61 ft on unseen data, it proves reliable in forecasting peak flood inundation depths. Validated against Hurricane Harvey and Storm Imelda, MaxFloodCast shows the potential in supporting near-time floodplain management and emergency operations. The model's interpretability aids decision-makers in offering critical information to inform flood mitigation strategies, to prioritize areas with critical facilities and to examine how rainfall in other watersheds influences flood exposure in one area. The MaxFloodCast model enables accurate and interpretable inundation depth predictions while significantly reducing computational time, thereby supporting emergency response efforts and flood risk management more effectively.

Generating realistic human flows across regions is essential for our understanding of urban structures and population activity patterns, enabling important applications in the fields of urban planning and management. However, a notable shortcoming of most existing mobility generation methodologies is neglect of prediction fairness, which can result in underestimation of mobility flows across regions with vulnerable population groups, potentially resulting in inequitable resource distribution and infrastructure development. To overcome this limitation, our study presents a novel, fairness-aware deep learning model, FairMobi-Net, for inter-region human flow prediction. The FairMobi-Net model uniquely incorporates fairness loss into the loss function and employs a hybrid approach, merging binary classification and numerical regression techniques for human flow prediction. We validate the FairMobi-Net model using comprehensive human mobility datasets from four U.S. cities, predicting human flow at the census-tract level. Our findings reveal that the FairMobi-Net model outperforms state-of-the-art models (such as the DeepGravity model) in producing more accurate and equitable human flow predictions across a variety of region pairs, regardless of regional income differences. The model maintains a high degree of accuracy consistently across diverse regions, addressing the previous fairness concern. Further analysis of feature importance elucidates the impact of physical distances and road network structures on human flows across regions. With fairness as its touchstone, the model and results provide researchers and practitioners across the fields of urban sciences, transportation engineering, and computing with an effective tool for accurate generation of human mobility flows across regions.

Current characterization of flood exposure is largely based on residential location of populations; however, location of residence only partially captures the extent to which populations are exposed to flood. An important, though yet under-recognized aspect of flood exposure is associated with human mobility patterns and population visitation to places located in flood prone areas. This study analyzed large-scale, high-resolution location-intelligence data to characterize human mobility patterns and the resulting flood exposure in counties of the United States. We developed the metric of mobility-based exposure based on dwell time in places located in the 100-year floodplain. The results of examining the extent of mobility-based flood exposure reveal a significant disparity across race, income , and education level groups. Black and Asian, economically disadvantaged, and undereducated populations are disproportionally exposed to flood due to their daily mobility activities, indicating a pattern contrary to residential flood exposure. The results suggest that mobility behaviors play an important role in extending flood exposure reach disproportionally among socio-demographic groups. Mobility-based flood exposure provides a new perspective regarding the extent to which floods could disrupt people's life activities and enables a better characterization of disparity in populations' exposure to flood hazards beyond their place of residence.

This study investigates the interplay among social demographics, built environment characteristics, and environmental hazard exposure features in determining community level cancer prevalence. Utilizing data from five Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States: Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York, the study implemented an XGBoost machine learning model to predict the extent of cancer prevalence and evaluate the importance of different features. Our model demonstrates reliable performance, with results indicating that age, minority status, and population density are among the most influential factors in cancer prevalence. We further explore urban development and design strategies that could mitigate cancer prevalence, focusing on green space, developed areas, and total emissions. Through a series of experimental evaluations based on causal inference, the results show that increasing green space and reducing developed areas and total emissions could alleviate cancer prevalence. The study and findings contribute to a better understanding of the interplay among urban features and community health and also show the value of interpretable machine learning models for integrated urban design to promote public health. The findings also provide actionable insights for urban planning and design, emphasizing the need for a multifaceted approach to addressing urban health disparities through integrated urban design strategies.

Evaluating human exposure to environmental hazards is crucial for identifying susceptible communities and devising targeted health policies. Standard environmental hazard exposure assessment methods have been primarily based on place of residence, an approach which neglect individuals hazard exposures due to the daily life activities and mobility outside home neighborhood. To address this limitation, this study proposes a novel mobility-based index for hazard exposure evaluation. Using large-scale and fine-grained human mobility data, we quantify the extent of population dwell time in high-environmental-hazard places in 239 U.S. counties for three major environmental hazards: air pollution, heat, and toxic sites. Subsequently we explore the extent to which human mobility extends the reach of environmental hazards and also lead to the emergence of latent exposure for populations living outside high hazard areas with relatively considerable dwell time in high hazard areas. The findings help quantify environmental hazard exposure more reliably, considering the role of human mobility and activities. The interplay of spatial clustering in high-hazard regions and human movement trends creates environmental hazard traps intensifying exposure. Poor and ethnic minority residents disproportionately face multiple types of environmental hazards, aggravating potential health impacts. This data-driven evidence supports the severity of these injustices. We also studied latent exposure arising from visits outside residents' home areas, revealing millions population having 5% to10% of daily activities occur in high-exposure zones. Despite living in perceived safe areas, human mobility could expose millions of residents to different hazards. These findings provide crucial insights for targeted policies to mitigate these severe environmental injustices

End-stage renal disease patients face a complicated sociomedical situation and rely on various forms of infrastructure for life-sustaining treatment. Disruption of these infrastructures during disasters poses a major threat to their lives. To improve patient access to dialysis treatment, there is a need to assess the potential threat to critical care facilities from hazardous events. In this study, we propose optimization models to solve critical care system resilience problems including patient and medical resource allocation. We use human mobility data in the context of Harris County (Texas) to assess patient access to critical care facilities, dialysis centers in this study, under the simulated hazard impacts, and we propose models for patient re-allocation and temporary medical facility placement to improve critical care system resilience in an equitable manner. The results show (1) the capability of the optimization model in efficient patient re-allocation to alleviate disrupted access to dialysis facilities; (2) the importance of large facilities in maintaining the functioning of the system. The critical care system, particularly the network of dialysis centers, is heavily reliant on a few larger facilities, making it susceptible to targeted disruption. (3) The consideration of equity in the optimization model formulation reduces access loss for vulnerable populations in the simulated scenarios. (4) The proposed temporary facilities placement could improve access for the vulnerable population, thereby improving the equity of access to critical care facilities in disaster. The proposed patient re-allocation model and temporary facilities placement can serve as a data-driven and analytic-based decision support tool for public health and emergency management plans to reduce the loss of access and disrupted access to critical care facilities and would reduce the dire social costs., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures

Understanding the relationship between urban form and structure and spatial variation of property flood risk has been a longstanding challenge in urban planning and city flood risk management. Yet limited data-driven insights exist regarding the extent to which variation in spatial inequality of property flood risk in cities can be explained by heterogenous features of urban form and structure. In this study, we explore eight key features (i.e., population density, point of interest density, road density, minority segregation, income segregation, urban centrality index, gross domestic product, and human mobility index) related to urban form and structure to explain variability in spatial inequality of property flood risk among 2567 US counties. Using rich datasets related to property flood risk, we quantify spatial inequality in property flood risk and delineate features of urban form and structure using high-resolution human mobility and facility distribution data. We identify significant variation in spatial inequality of property flood risk among US counties with coastline and metropolitan counties having the greatest spatial inequality of property flood risk. The results also reveal variations in spatial inequality of property flood risk can be effectively explained based on principal components of development density, economic activity, and centrality and segregation. Using a classification and regression tree model, we demonstrate how these principal components interact and form pathways that explain levels of spatial inequality in property flood risk in US counties. The findings offer important insights for the understanding of the complex interplay between urban form and structure and spatial inequality of property flood risk and have important implications for integrated urban design strategies to address property flood risk as cities continue to expand and develop.

We propose an automated lowest floor elevation (LFE) estimation algorithm based on computer vision techniques to leverage the latent information in street view images. Flood depth-damage models use a combination of LFE and flood depth for determining flood risk and extent of damage to properties. We used image segmentation for detecting door bottoms and roadside edges from Google Street View images. The characteristic of equirectangular projection with constant spacing representation of horizontal and vertical angles allows extraction of the pitch angle from the camera to the door bottom. The depth from the camera to the door bottom was obtained from the depthmap paired with the Google Street View image. LFEs were calculated from the pitch angle and the depth. The testbed for application of the proposed method is Meyerland (Harris County, Texas). The results show that the proposed method achieved mean absolute error of 0.190 m (1.18 %) in estimating LFE. The height difference between the street and the lowest floor (HDSL) was estimated to provide information for flood damage estimation. The proposed automatic LFE estimation algorithm using Street View images and image segmentation provides a rapid and cost-effective method for LFE estimation compared with the surveys using total station theodolite and unmanned aerial systems. By obtaining more accurate and up-to-date LFE data using the proposed method, city planners, emergency planners and insurance companies could make a more precise estimation of flood damage.

Effective climate mitigation strategies in cities rely on understanding and mapping urban carbon footprints. One significant source of carbon is a product of lifestyle choices and travel behaviors of urban residents. Although previous research addressed consumption- and home-related footprints, activity-based footprints of urban dwellers have garnered less attention. This study relies on deidentified human trajectory data from 5 million devices to examine the activity-based carbon footprint in Harris County, Texas. Our analysis of the heterogeneity of footprints based on places visited and distance traveled reveals significant inequality: 10% of users account for 88% of visitation-based footprints and 71% of distance-traveled footprints. We also identify the influence of income on activity-based carbon footprint gap of users related to their travel behavior and lifestyle choices, with high-income users having larger footprints due to lifestyle choices, while low- to medium-income users' footprints are due to limited access. Our findings underscore the need for urban design adjustments to reduce carbon-intensive behaviors and to improve facility distribution. Our conclusions highlight the importance of addressing urban design parameters that shape carbon-intensive lifestyle choices and facility distribution, decisions which have implications for developing interventions to reduce carbon footprints caused by human activities., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 1 table

Extreme weather poses significant threats to air transportation systems, causing flight rerouting and cancellations, as well as passenger travel delays. With the growing frequency of extreme weather hazards, it is essential to understand the extent to which disruptions in flights and subsequent cancellations impact passenger delays. This study focuses on quantifying the impacts of a recent extreme weather event (2022 Winter Storm Elliott) on the U.S. air transportation system by investigating passenger delays measured based on dwell time at airports using privacy-preserving location-based datasets. The study determines total dwell time and dwell time per anonymized user at airports during the extreme weather event and computes the impact based on changes in values compared to the same period in the previous year. The results show that the storm event caused passengers significant delays, as characterized by a substantial increase in airport dwell time. Factor analysis shows that airports with a greater passenger flow and a greater portion of flights from decentralized airlines aggravated passengers delays during the winter storm. The vulnerability of airports was mainly due to the direct storm exposure, and the influence of network cascading impacts were limited. The findings of this study provide novel insights and quantification of the extent of extreme weather impacts on air transportation at individual airports and national levels. These outcomes could inform airport owners and operators, as well as airlines, about the extent of vulnerability and provide useful information for weather-related risk assessment of air transportation systems.

ChatGPT has been emerging as a novel information source, and it is likely that the public might seek information from ChatGPT while taking protective actions when facing climate hazards such as floods and hurricanes. The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and completeness of responses generated by ChatGPT when individuals seek information about aspects of taking protective actions. The survey analysis results indicated that: (1) the emergency managers considered the responses provided by ChatGPT as accurate and complete to a great extent; (2) it was statistically verified in evaluations that the generated information was accurate, but lacked completeness, implying that the extent of information provided is accurate; and (3) information generated for prompts related to hazard insurance received the highest evaluation, whereas the information generated related to evacuation received the lowest. This last result implies that, for complex, context-specific protective actions (such as evacuation), the information was rated as less complete compared with other protective actions. Also, the results showed that the perception of respondents regarding the utility of AI- assistive technologies (such as ChatGPT) for emergency preparedness and response improved after taking the survey and evaluating the information generated by ChatGPT. The findings from this study provide empirical evaluation regarding the utility of AI-assistive technologies for improving public decision-making and protective actions in disasters.

Understanding the relationship between spatial structures of cities and environmental hazard exposures (such as urban heat) is essential for urban health and sustainability planning. However, a critical knowledge gap exists in terms of the extent to which socio-spatial networks shaped by human mobility exacerbate or alleviate urban heat exposures of populations in cities. In this study, we utilize location-based data to construct human mobility networks in twenty metropolitan areas in the U.S. The human mobility networks are analyzed in conjunction with the urban heat characteristics of spatial areas. We identify areas with high and low urban heat exposure and evaluate visitation patterns of populations residing in high and low urban heat areas to other spatial areas with similar and dissimilar urban heat exposure. The results reveal the presence of urban heat traps in the majority of the studied metropolitan areas in which populations residing in high heat exposure areas primarily visit areas with high heat exposure. The results also show a small percentage of human mobility to produce urban heat escalate (visitations from low heat areas to high heat areas) and heat escapes (movements from high heat areas to low heat areas). The findings from this study provide a better understanding of urban heat exposure in cities based on patterns of human mobility. These finding contribute to a broader understanding of the intersection of human network dynamics and environmental hazard exposures in cities to inform more integrated urban design and planning to promote health and sustainability., Comment: 55 pages

Global sea-level rise causes increasing threats of coastal flood and subsequent pollutant dispersion. However, there are still few studies on the disparity arising from such threats and the extent to which different communities could be exposed to flood-induced pollution dispersion from toxic sites under future sea level rise. To address this gap, this study selects Texas (a U.S. state with a large number of toxic sites and significant flood hazards) as the study area and investigates impacts of flood-induced pollutant dispersion on different communities under current (2018) and future (2050) flood hazard scenarios.The results show, currently, north coastline in Texas bears higher threats and vulnerable communities (i.e., low income, minorities and unemployed) are disproportionally exposed to these threats. In addition, the future sea-level rise and the exacerbated flood hazards will put additional threats on more (about 10%) Texas residents, among which vulnerable communities will still be disproportionately exposed to the increased threats. Our study reveals the facts that potential coastal pollutant dispersion will further aggravate the environmental injustice issues at the intersection of toxic sites and flood hazards for vulnerable populations and exacerbate risk inequalities. Given the dire impacts of flood-induced pollution dispersion on public health, the findings have important implications for specific actions from the policy makers to mitigate the inequitable risks.

The ability to measure and track the speed and trajectory of a community's post-disaster recovery is essential to inform resource allocation and prioritization. The current survey-based approaches to examining community recovery, however, have significant lags and put the burden of data collection on affected people. Also, the existing literature lacks quantitative measures for important milestones to inform the assessment of recovery trajectory. Recognizing these gaps, this study uses location-based data related to visitation patterns and credit card transactions to specify critical recovery milestones related to population activity recovery. Using data from 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County (Texas), the study specifies four critical post-disaster recovery milestones and calculates quantitative measurements of the length of time between the end of a hazard event and when the spatial areas (census tracts) reached these milestones based on fluctuations in visits to essential and non-essential facilities, and essential and non-essential credit card transactions. Accordingly, an integrated recovery metric is created for an overall measurement of each spatial area's recovery progression. Exploratory statistical analyses were conducted to examine whether variations in community recovery progression in achieving the critical milestones is correlated to its flood status, socioeconomic characteristics, and demographic composition. Finally, the extent of spatial inequality is examined. The results show the presence of moderate spatial inequality in population activity recovery in Hurricane Harvey, based upon which the inequality of recovery is measured. Results of this study can benefit post-disaster recovery resource allocation as well as improve community resilience towards future natural hazards.

Community recovery from hazards and crises occurs through various diffusion processes within social and spatial networks of communities. Existing knowledge regarding the diffusion of recovery in community socio-spatial networks, however, is rather limited. To bridge this gap, in this study, we created a network diffusion model to characterize the unfolding of population activity recovery in spatial networks of communities. Using data related to population activity recovery durations calculated from location-based data in the context of 2017 Hurricane Harvey in the Houston area, we parameterized the threshold-based network diffusion model and evaluated the extent of homogeneity in spatial effects. Then we implemented the network diffusion model along with the genetic algorithm to simulate and identify recovery multipliers. The results show that the spatial effects of recovery are rather heterogeneous across spatial areas; some spatial areas demonstrate a greater spatial effect (spatial interdependence) in their recovery compared with others. Also, the results show that low-income areas demonstrate a greater spatial effect in their recovery. The greater spatial effects in recovery of low-income areas imply more reliance on resources and facilities of neighboring areas and also explain the existence of slow recovery hotspots in areas where socially vulnerable populations reside. Also, the results show that low-income and minority areas are community recovery multipliers; the faster the recovery of these recovery multipliers; the faster the recovery of the entire community. Hence, prioritizing these areas for recovery resource allocation could expedite the recovery of the overall community and promote recovery equality and equity., Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables