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The field of quickest change detection (QCD) concerns design and analysis of algorithms to estimate in real time the time at which an important event takes place and identify properties of the post-change behavior. The goal is to devise a stopping time adapted to the observations that minimizes an $L_1$ loss. Approximately optimal solutions are well known under a variety of assumptions. In the work surveyed here we consider the CUSUM statistic, which is defined as a one-dimensional reflected random walk driven by a functional of the observations. It is known that the optimal functional is a log likelihood ratio subject to special statical assumptions. The paper concerns model free approaches to detection design, considering the following questions: 1. What is the performance for a given functional of the observations? 2. How do the conclusions change when there is dependency between pre- and post-change behavior? 3. How can techniques from statistics and machine learning be adapted to approximate the best functional in a given class?, Comment: Extended version of extended abstract for the Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing, September 2024

Many machine learning and optimization algorithms can be cast as instances of stochastic approximation (SA). The convergence rate of these algorithms is known to be slow, with the optimal mean squared error (MSE) of order $O(n^{-1})$. In prior work it was shown that MSE bounds approaching $O(n^{-4})$ can be achieved through the framework of quasi-stochastic approximation (QSA); essentially SA with careful choice of deterministic exploration. These results are extended to two time-scale algorithms, as found in policy gradient methods of reinforcement learning and extremum seeking control. The extensions are made possible in part by a new approach to analysis, allowing for the interpretation of two timescale algorithms as instances of single timescale QSA, made possible by the theory of negative Lyapunov exponents for QSA. The general theory is illustrated with applications to extremum seeking control (ESC)., Comment: 20 pages

This paper is concerned with the design of algorithms based on systems of interacting particles to represent, approximate, and learn the optimal control law for reinforcement learning (RL). The primary contribution of the present paper is to show that convergence rates can be accelerated dramatically through careful design of interactions between particles. Theory focuses on the linear quadratic stochastic optimal control problem for which a complete and novel theory is presented. Apart from the new algorithm, sample complexity bounds are obtained, and it is shown that the mean square error scales as $1/N$ where $N$ is the number of particles. The theoretical results and algorithms are illustrated with numerical experiments and comparisons with other recent approaches, where the faster convergence of the proposed algorithm is numerically demonstrated.

Many machine learning and optimization algorithms are built upon the framework of stochastic approximation (SA), for which the selection of step-size (or learning rate) is essential for success. For the sake of clarity, this paper focuses on the special case $\alpha_n = \alpha_0 n^{-\rho}$ at iteration $n$, with $\rho \in [0,1]$ and $\alpha_0>0$ design parameters. It is most common in practice to take $\rho=0$ (constant step-size), while in more theoretically oriented papers a vanishing step-size is preferred. In particular, with $\rho \in (1/2, 1)$ it is known that on applying the averaging technique of Polyak and Ruppert, the mean-squared error (MSE) converges at the optimal rate of $O(1/n)$ and the covariance in the central limit theorem (CLT) is minimal in a precise sense. The paper revisits step-size selection in a general Markovian setting. Under readily verifiable assumptions, the following conclusions are obtained provided $0<\rho<1$: $\bullet$ Parameter estimates converge with probability one, and also in $L_p$ for any $p\ge 1$. $\bullet$ The MSE may converge very slowly for small $\rho$, of order $O(\alpha_n^2)$ even with averaging. $\bullet$ For linear stochastic approximation the source of slow convergence is identified: for any $\rho\in (0,1)$, averaging results in estimates for which the error $\textit{covariance}$ vanishes at the optimal rate, and moreover the CLT covariance is optimal in the sense of Polyak and Ruppert. However, necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained under which the $\textit{bias}$ converges to zero at rate $O(\alpha_n)$. This is the first paper to obtain such strong conclusions while allowing for $\rho \le 1/2$. A major conclusion is that the choice of $\rho =0$ or even $\rho<1/2$ is justified only in select settings -- In general, bias may preclude fast convergence., Comment: 30 pages, 5 figures

In this paper, stochastic optimal control problems in continuous time and space are considered. In recent years, such problems have received renewed attention from the lens of reinforcement learning (RL) which is also one of our motivation. The main contribution is a simulation-based algorithm -- dual ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) -- to numerically approximate the solution of these problems. The paper extends our previous work where the dual EnKF was applied in deterministic settings of the problem. The theoretical results and algorithms are illustrated with numerical experiments., Comment: Accepted to IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2024

The field of quickest change detection (QCD) concerns design and analysis of algorithms to estimate in real time the time at which an important event takes place, and identify properties of the post-change behavior. It is shown in this paper that approaches based on reinforcement learning (RL) can be adapted based on any "surrogate information state" that is adapted to the observations. Hence we are left to choose both the surrogate information state process and the algorithm. For the former, it is argued that there are many choices available, based on a rich theory of asymptotic statistics for QCD. Two approaches to RL design are considered: (i) Stochastic gradient descent based on an actor-critic formulation. Theory is largely complete for this approach: the algorithm is unbiased, and will converge to a local minimum. However, it is shown that variance of stochastic gradients can be very large, necessitating the need for commensurately long run times; (ii) Q-learning algorithms based on a version of the projected Bellman equation. It is shown that the algorithm is stable, in the sense of bounded sample paths, and that a solution to the projected Bellman equation exists under mild conditions. Numerical experiments illustrate these findings, and provide a roadmap for algorithm design in more general settings., Comment: Preprint version of "Reinforcement Learning Design for Quickest Change Detection", IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2024 (to appear)

The paper introduces the first formulation of convex Q-learning for Markov decision processes with function approximation. The algorithms and theory rest on a relaxation of a dual of Manne's celebrated linear programming characterization of optimal control. The main contributions firstly concern properties of the relaxation, described as a deterministic convex program: we identify conditions for a bounded solution, and a significant relationship between the solution to the new convex program, and the solution to standard Q-learning. The second set of contributions concern algorithm design and analysis: (i) A direct model-free method for approximating the convex program for Q-learning shares properties with its ideal. In particular, a bounded solution is ensured subject to a simple property of the basis functions; (ii) The proposed algorithms are convergent and new techniques are introduced to obtain the rate of convergence in a mean-square sense; (iii) The approach can be generalized to a range of performance criteria, and it is found that variance can be reduced by considering ``relative'' dynamic programming equations; (iv) The theory is illustrated with an application to a classical inventory control problem., Comment: Extended version of "Convex Q-learning in a stochastic environment", IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2023 (to appear)

Theory and application of stochastic approximation (SA) has grown within the control systems community since the earliest days of adaptive control. This paper takes a new look at the topic, motivated by recent results establishing remarkable performance of SA with (sufficiently small) constant step-size $\alpha>0$. If averaging is implemented to obtain the final parameter estimate, then the estimates are asymptotically unbiased with nearly optimal asymptotic covariance. These results have been obtained for random linear SA recursions with i.i.d. coefficients. This paper obtains very different conclusions in the more common case of geometrically ergodic Markovian disturbance: (i) The $\textit{target bias}$ is identified, even in the case of non-linear SA, and is in general non-zero. The remaining results are established for linear SA recursions: (ii) the bivariate parameter-disturbance process is geometrically ergodic in a topological sense; (iii) the representation for bias has a simpler form in this case, and cannot be expected to be zero if there is multiplicative noise; (iv) the asymptotic covariance of the averaged parameters is within $O(\alpha)$ of optimal. The error term is identified, and may be massive if mean dynamics are not well conditioned. The theory is illustrated with application to TD-learning., Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures

Q-learning has become an important part of the reinforcement learning toolkit since its introduction in the dissertation of Chris Watkins in the 1980s. The purpose of this paper is in part a tutorial on stochastic approximation and Q-learning, providing details regarding the INFORMS APS inaugural Applied Probability Trust Plenary Lecture, presented in Nancy France, June 2023. The paper also presents new approaches to ensure stability and potentially accelerated convergence for these algorithms, and stochastic approximation in other settings. Two contributions are entirely new: 1. Stability of Q-learning with linear function approximation has been an open topic for research for over three decades. It is shown that with appropriate optimistic training in the form of a modified Gibbs policy, there exists a solution to the projected Bellman equation, and the algorithm is stable (in terms of bounded parameter estimates). Convergence remains one of many open topics for research. 2. The new Zap Zero algorithm is designed to approximate the Newton-Raphson flow without matrix inversion. It is stable and convergent under mild assumptions on the mean flow vector field for the algorithm, and compatible statistical assumption on an underlying Markov chain. The algorithm is a general approach to stochastic approximation which in particular applies to Q-learning with "oblivious" training even with non-linear function approximation., Comment: Companion paper to the INFORMS APS inaugural Applied Probability Trust Plenary Lecture, presented in Nancy France, June 2023. Slides available online, Online, DOI 10.13140/RG.2.2.24897.33127

This technique holds several advantages over contemporary techniques: It utilizes technology that is already deployed in the field, it offers a significant degree of generality, and so far it has displayed a very high-level of sensitivity without sacrificing accuracy. Validation is performed in the form of simulations based in the IEEE 13 Node System and non-linear fault models. Test results are encouraging, indicating potential for real-life applications., Comment: IEEE ISGT 2023

This paper presents a model for detecting high-impedance faults (HIFs) using parameter error modeling and a two-step per-phase weighted least squares state estimation (SE) process. The proposed scheme leverages the use of phasor measurement units and synthetic measurements to identify per-phase power flow and injection measurements which indicate a parameter error through $\chi^2$ Hypothesis Testing applied to the composed measurement error (CME). Although current and voltage waveforms are commonly analyzed for high-impedance fault detection, wide-area power flow and injection measurements, which are already inherent to the SE process, also show promise for real-world high-impedance fault detection applications. The error distributions after detection share the measurement function error spread observed in proven parameter error diagnostics and can be applied to HIF identification. Further, this error spread related to the HIF will be clearly discerned from measurement error. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in Simulink., Comment: Accepted for publication in 2023 IEEE ISGT North America. 5 pages, 6 figures

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units ($\mu$PMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement $\mu$PMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements-not only are the SCADA and $\mu$PMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions., Comment: This work has been submitted to the 2023 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting for possible publication. 5 pages, 4 figures

In recent years there has been a collective research effort to find new formulations of reinforcement learning that are simultaneously more efficient and more amenable to analysis. This paper concerns one approach that builds on the linear programming (LP) formulation of optimal control of Manne. A primal version is called logistic Q-learning, and a dual variant is convex Q-learning. This paper focuses on the latter, while building bridges with the former. The main contributions follow: (i) The dual of convex Q-learning is not precisely Manne's LP or a version of logistic Q-learning, but has similar structure that reveals the need for regularization to avoid over-fitting. (ii) A sufficient condition is obtained for a bounded solution to the Q-learning LP. (iii) Simulation studies reveal numerical challenges when addressing sampled-data systems based on a continuous time model. The challenge is addressed using state-dependent sampling. The theory is illustrated with applications to examples from OpenAI gym. It is shown that convex Q-learning is successful in cases where standard Q-learning diverges, such as the LQR problem.

Convex Q-learning is a recent approach to reinforcement learning, motivated by the possibility of a firmer theory for convergence, and the possibility of making use of greater a priori knowledge regarding policy or value function structure. This paper explores algorithm design in the continuous time domain, with finite-horizon optimal control objective. The main contributions are (i) Algorithm design is based on a new Q-ODE, which defines the model-free characterization of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. (ii) The Q-ODE motivates a new formulation of Convex Q-learning that avoids the approximations appearing in prior work. The Bellman error used in the algorithm is defined by filtered measurements, which is beneficial in the presence of measurement noise. (iii) A characterization of boundedness of the constraint region is obtained through a non-trivial extension of recent results from the discrete time setting. (iv) The theory is illustrated in application to resource allocation for distributed energy resources, for which the theory is ideally suited.

Optimal transport is now a standard tool for solving many problems in statistics and machine learning. The optimal "transport of probability measures" is also a recurring theme in stochastic control and distributed control, where in the latter application the probability measure corresponds to an empirical distribution associated with a large collection of distributed agents, subject to local and global control. The goal of this paper is to make precise these connections, which inspires new relaxations of optimal transport for application in new and traditional domains. The proposed relaxation replaces a target measure with a "moment class": a set of probability measures defined by generalized moment constraints. This is motivated by applications to control, outlier detection, and to address computational complexity. The main conclusions are (i) A characterization of the solution is obtained, similar to Kantorovich duality, in which one of the dual functions in the classical theory is replaced by a linear combination of the features defining the generalized moments. Hence the dimension of the optimization problem coincides with the number of constraints, even with an uncountable state space; (ii) By introducing regularization in the form of relative entropy, the solution can be interpreted as replacing a maximum with a softmax in the dual; (iii) In applications such as control for which it is not known a-priori if the moment class is non-empty, a relaxation is proposed whose solution admits a similar characterization; (iv) The gradient of the dual function can be expressed in terms of the expectation of the features under a tilted probability measure, which motivates Monte-Carlo techniques for computation.

This paper concerns quasi-stochastic approximation (QSA) to solve root finding problems commonly found in applications to optimization and reinforcement learning. The general constant gain algorithm may be expressed as the time-inhomogeneous ODE $ \frac{d}{dt}\Theta_t=\alpha f_t (\Theta_t)$, with state process $\Theta$ evolving on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Theory is based on an almost periodic vector field, so that in particular the time average of $f_t(\theta)$ defines the time-homogeneous mean vector field $\bar{f} \colon \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}^d$ with $\bar{f}(\theta^*)=0$. Under smoothness assumptions on the functions involved, the following exact representation is obtained: \[\frac{d}{dt}\Theta_t=\alpha[\bar{f}(\Theta_t)-\alpha\bar\Upsilon_t+\alpha^2\mathcal{W}_t^0+\alpha\frac{d}{dt}\mathcal{W}_t^1+\frac{d^2}{dt^2}\mathcal{W}_t^2]\] along with formulae for the smooth signals $\{\bar \Upsilon_t , \mathcal{W}_t^i : i=0, 1, 2\}$. This new representation, combined with new conditions for ultimate boundedness, has many applications for furthering the theory of QSA and its applications, including the following implications that are developed in this paper: (i) A proof that the estimation error $\|\Theta_t-\theta^*\|$ is of order $O(\alpha)$, but can be reduced to $O(\alpha^2)$ using a second order linear filter. (ii) In application to extremum seeking control, it is found that the results do not apply because the standard algorithms are not Lipschitz continuous. A new approach is presented to ensure that the required Lipschitz bounds hold, and from this we obtain stability, transient bounds, and asymptotic bias of order $O(\alpha^2)$, and asymptotic variance of order $O(\alpha^4)$. (iii) It is in general possible to obtain better than $O(\alpha)$ bounds on error in traditional stochastic approximation when there is Markovian noise., Comment: 53 pages, 15 Figures

Stochastic approximation is a foundation for many algorithms found in machine learning and optimization. It is in general slow to converge: the mean square error vanishes as $O(n^{-1})$. A deterministic counterpart known as quasi-stochastic approximation is a viable alternative in many applications, including gradient-free optimization and reinforcement learning. It was assumed in prior research that the optimal achievable convergence rate is $O(n^{-2})$. It is shown in this paper that through design it is possible to obtain far faster convergence, of order $O(n^{-4+\delta})$, with $\delta>0$ arbitrary. Two techniques are introduced for the first time to achieve this rate of convergence. The theory is also specialized within the context of gradient-free optimization, and tested on standard benchmarks. The main results are based on a combination of novel application of results from number theory and techniques adapted from stochastic approximation theory., Comment: 36 pages, 14 figures

The paper concerns the $d$-dimensional stochastic approximation recursion, $$ \theta_{n+1}= \theta_n + \alpha_{n + 1} f(\theta_n, \Phi_{n+1}) $$ where $ \{ \Phi_n \}$ is a stochastic process on a general state space, satisfying a conditional Markov property that allows for parameter-dependent noise. The main results are established under additional conditions on the mean flow and a version of the Donsker-Varadhan Lyapunov drift condition known as (DV3): {(i)} An appropriate Lyapunov function is constructed that implies convergence of the estimates in $L_4$. {(ii)} A functional central limit theorem (CLT) is established, as well as the usual one-dimensional CLT for the normalized error. Moment bounds combined with the CLT imply convergence of the normalized covariance $\textsf{E} [ z_n z_n^T ]$ to the asymptotic covariance in the CLT, where $z_n{=:} (\theta_n-\theta^*)/\sqrt{\alpha_n}$. {(iii)} The CLT holds for the normalized version $z^{\text{PR}}_n{=:} \sqrt{n} [\theta^{\text{PR}}_n -\theta^*]$, of the averaged parameters $\theta^{\text{PR}}_n {=:} n^{-1} \sum_{k=1}^n\theta_k$, subject to standard assumptions on the step-size. Moreover, the covariance in the CLT coincides with the minimal covariance of Polyak and Ruppert. {(iv)} An example is given where $f$ and $\bar{f}$ are linear in $\theta$, and $\Phi$ is a geometrically ergodic Markov chain but does not satisfy (DV3). While the algorithm is convergent, the second moment of $\theta_n$ is unbounded and in fact diverges. {\bf This arXiv version 3 represents a major extension of the results in prior versions.} The main results now allow for parameter-dependent noise, as is often the case in applications to reinforcement learning., Comment: 2 figures

This paper is concerned with optimal control problems for control systems in continuous time, and interacting particle system methods designed to construct approximate control solutions. Particular attention is given to the linear quadratic (LQ) control problem. There is a growing interest in re-visiting this classical problem, in part due to the successes of reinforcement learning (RL). The main question of this body of research (and also of our paper) is to approximate the optimal control law {\em without} explicitly solving the Riccati equation. A novel simulation-based algorithm, namely a dual ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is introduced. The algorithm is used to obtain formulae for optimal control, expressed entirely in terms of the EnKF particles. An extension to the nonlinear case is also presented. The theoretical results and algorithms are illustrated with numerical experiments.

This paper is concerned with the problem of nonlinear filter stability of ergodic Markov processes. The main contribution is the conditional Poincar\'e inequality (PI), which is shown to yield filter stability. The proof is based upon a recently discovered duality which is used to transform the nonlinear filtering problem into a stochastic optimal control problem for a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE). Based on these dual formalisms, a comparison is drawn between the stochastic stability of a Markov process and the filter stability. The latter relies on the conditional PI described in this paper, whereas the former relies on the standard form of PI., Comment: 60th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC)

This paper takes a fresh look at the economic theory that is motivation for pricing models, such as critical peak pricing (CPP), or surge pricing, and the demand response models advocated by policy makers and in the power systems literature. The economic analysis in this paper begins with two premises: 1) a meaningful analysis requires a realistic model of stakeholder/consumer rationality, and 2) the relationship between electric power and the ultimate use of electricity are only loosely related in many cases. The most obvious examples are refrigerators and hot water heaters that consume power intermittently to maintain constant temperature. Based on a realistic model of user preferences, it is shown that the use of CPP and related pricing schemes will eventually destabilize the grid with increased participation. Analysis of this model also leads to a competitive equilibrium, along with a characterization of the dynamic prices in this equilibrium. However, we argue that these prices will not lead to a robust control solution that is acceptable to either grid operators or consumers. These findings are presented in this paper to alert policy makers of the risk of implementing real time prices to control our energy grid. Competitive equilibrium theory can only provide a caricature of a real-world market, since complexities such as sunk cost and risk are not included. The paper explains why these approximations are especially significant in the power industry. It concludes with policy recommendations to bolster the reliability of the power grid, with a focus on planning across different timescales and alternate approaches to leveraging demand-side flexibility in the grid.

The ODE method has been a workhorse for algorithm design and analysis since the introduction of the stochastic approximation. It is now understood that convergence theory amounts to establishing robustness of Euler approximations for ODEs, while theory of rates of convergence requires finer analysis. This paper sets out to extend this theory to quasi-stochastic approximation, based on algorithms in which the "noise" is based on deterministic signals. The main results are obtained under minimal assumptions: the usual Lipschitz conditions for ODE vector fields, and it is assumed that there is a well defined linearization near the optimal parameter $\theta^*$, with Hurwitz linearization matrix $A^*$. The main contributions are summarized as follows: (i) If the algorithm gain is $a_t=g/(1+t)^\rho$ with $g>0$ and $\rho\in(0,1)$, then the rate of convergence of the algorithm is $1/t^\rho$. There is also a well defined "finite-$t$" approximation: \[ a_t^{-1}\{\Theta_t-\theta^*\}=\bar{Y}+\Xi^{\mathrm{I}}_t+o(1) \] where $\bar{Y}\in\mathbb{R}^d$ is a vector identified in the paper, and $\{\Xi^{\mathrm{I}}_t\}$ is bounded with zero temporal mean. (ii) With gain $a_t = g/(1+t)$ the results are not as sharp: the rate of convergence $1/t$ holds only if $I + g A^*$ is Hurwitz. (iii) Based on the Ruppert-Polyak averaging of stochastic approximation, one would expect that a convergence rate of $1/t$ can be obtained by averaging: \[ \Theta^{\text{RP}}_T=\frac{1}{T}\int_{0}^T \Theta_t\,dt \] where the estimates $\{\Theta_t\}$ are obtained using the gain in (i). The preceding sharp bounds imply that averaging results in $1/t$ convergence rate if and only if $\bar{Y}=\sf 0$. This condition holds if the noise is additive, but appears to fail in general. (iv) The theory is illustrated with applications to gradient-free optimization and policy gradient algorithms for reinforcement learning.

It is well known that the extension of Watkins' algorithm to general function approximation settings is challenging: does the projected Bellman equation have a solution? If so, is the solution useful in the sense of generating a good policy? And, if the preceding questions are answered in the affirmative, is the algorithm consistent? These questions are unanswered even in the special case of Q-function approximations that are linear in the parameter. The challenge seems paradoxical, given the long history of convex analytic approaches to dynamic programming. The paper begins with a brief survey of linear programming approaches to optimal control, leading to a particular over parameterization that lends itself to applications in reinforcement learning. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: (i) The new class of convex Q-learning algorithms is introduced based on the convex relaxation of the Bellman equation. Convergence is established under general conditions, including a linear function approximation for the Q-function. (ii) A batch implementation appears similar to the famed DQN algorithm (one engine behind AlphaZero). It is shown that in fact the algorithms are very different: while convex Q-learning solves a convex program that approximates the Bellman equation, theory for DQN is no stronger than for Watkins' algorithm with function approximation: (a) it is shown that both seek solutions to the same fixed point equation, and (b) the ODE approximations for the two algorithms coincide, and little is known about the stability of this ODE. These results are obtained for deterministic nonlinear systems with total cost criterion. Many extensions are proposed, including kernel implementation, and extension to MDP models., Comment: This pre-print is written in a tutorial style so it is accessible to new-comers. It will be a part of a handout for upcoming short courses on RL. A more compact version suitable for journal submission is in preparation

This is a collection of the lecture notes of the three authors for a first-year graduate course on control system theory and design (ECE 515 , formerly ECE 415) at the ECE Department of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. This is a fundamental course on the modern theory of dynamical systems and their control, and builds on a first-level course in control that emphasizes frequency-domain methods (such as the course ECE 486 , formerly ECE 386, at UIUC ). The emphasis in this graduate course is on state space techniques, and it encompasses modeling , analysis (of structural properties of systems, such as stability, controllability, and observability), synthesis (of observers/compensators and controllers) subject to design specifications, and optimization . Accordingly, this set of lecture notes is organized in four parts, with each part dealing with one of the issues identified above. Concentration is on linear systems , with nonlinear systems covered only in some specific contexts, such as stability and dynamic optimization. Both continuous-time and discrete-time systems are covered, with the former, however, in much greater depth than the latter. The main objective of this course is to teach the student some fundamental principles within a solid conceptual framework, that will enable her/him to design feedback loops compatible with the information available on the "states" of the system to be controlled, and by taking into account considerations such as stability, performance, energy conservation, and even robustness. A second objective is to familiarize her/him with the available modern computational, simulation, and general software tools that facilitate the design of effective feedback loops

We use simulation to estimate the steady-state performance of a stable multiclass queueing network. Standard estimators have been seen to perform poorly when the network is heavily loaded. We introduce two new simulation estimators. The first provides substantial variance reductions in moderately-loaded networks at very little additional computational cost. The second estimator provides substantial variance reductions in heavy traffic, again for a small additional computational cost. Both methods employ the variance reduction method of control variates, and differ in terms of how the control variates are constructed., Comment: 25 pages

This paper presents approaches to mean-field control, motivated by distributed control of multi-agent systems. Control solutions are based on a convex optimization problem, whose domain is a convex set of probability mass functions (pmfs). The main contributions follow: 1. Kullback-Leibler-Quadratic (KLQ) optimal control is a special case, in which the objective function is composed of a control cost in the form of Kullback-Leibler divergence between a candidate pmf and the nominal, plus a quadratic cost on the sequence of marginals. Theory in this paper extends prior work on deterministic control systems, establishing that the optimal solution is an exponential tilting of the nominal pmf. Transform techniques are introduced to reduce complexity of the KLQ solution, motivated by the need to consider time horizons that are much longer than the inter-sampling times required for reliable control. 2. Infinite-horizon KLQ leads to a state feedback control solution with attractive properties. It can be expressed as either state feedback, in which the state is the sequence of marginal pmfs, or an open loop solution is obtained that is more easily computed. 3. Numerical experiments are surveyed in an application of distributed control of residential loads to provide grid services, similar to utility-scale battery storage. The results show that KLQ optimal control enables the aggregate power consumption of a collection of flexible loads to track a time-varying reference signal, while simultaneously ensuring each individual load satisfies its own quality of service constraints. Keywords: Mean field games, distributed control, Markov decision processes, Demand Dispatch., Comment: Extended version of paper to appear in SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization (SICON)

Sample complexity bounds are a common performance metric in the Reinforcement Learning literature. In the discounted cost, infinite horizon setting, all of the known bounds have a factor that is a polynomial in $1/(1-\gamma)$, where $\gamma < 1$ is the discount factor. For a large discount factor, these bounds seem to imply that a very large number of samples is required to achieve an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy. The objective of the present work is to introduce a new class of algorithms that have sample complexity uniformly bounded for all $\gamma < 1$. One may argue that this is impossible, due to a recent min-max lower bound. The explanation is that this previous lower bound is for a specific problem, which we modify, without compromising the ultimate objective of obtaining an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy. Specifically, we show that the asymptotic covariance of the Q-learning algorithm with an optimized step-size sequence is a quadratic function of $1/(1-\gamma)$; an expected, and essentially known result. The new relative Q-learning algorithm proposed here is shown to have asymptotic covariance that is a quadratic in $1/(1- \rho^* \gamma)$, where $1 - \rho^* > 0$ is an upper bound on the spectral gap of an optimal transition matrix., Comment: 33 pages, 4 figures

This paper concerns error bounds for recursive equations subject to Markovian disturbances. Motivating examples abound within the fields of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), and many of these algorithms can be interpreted as special cases of stochastic approximation (SA). It is argued that it is not possible in general to obtain a Hoeffding bound on the error sequence, even when the underlying Markov chain is reversible and geometrically ergodic, such as the M/M/1 queue. This is motivation for the focus on mean square error bounds for parameter estimates. It is shown that mean square error achieves the optimal rate of $O(1/n)$, subject to conditions on the step-size sequence. Moreover, the exact constants in the rate are obtained, which is of great value in algorithm design.

Zap Q-learning is a recent class of reinforcement learning algorithms, motivated primarily as a means to accelerate convergence. Stability theory has been absent outside of two restrictive classes: the tabular setting, and optimal stopping. This paper introduces a new framework for analysis of a more general class of recursive algorithms known as stochastic approximation. Based on this general theory, it is shown that Zap Q-learning is consistent under a non-degeneracy assumption, even when the function approximation architecture is nonlinear. Zap Q-learning with neural network function approximation emerges as a special case, and is tested on examples from OpenAI Gym. Based on multiple experiments with a range of neural network sizes, it is found that the new algorithms converge quickly and are robust to choice of function approximation architecture.

This paper examines the problem of real-time optimization of networked systems and develops online algorithms that steer the system towards the optimal trajectory without explicit knowledge of the system model. The problem is modeled as a dynamic optimization problem with time-varying performance objectives and engineering constraints. The design of the algorithms leverages the online zero-order primal-dual projected-gradient method. In particular, the primal step that involves the gradient of the objective function (and hence requires networked systems model) is replaced by its zero-order approximation with two function evaluations using a deterministic perturbation signal. The evaluations are performed using the measurements of the system output, hence giving rise to a feedback interconnection, with the optimization algorithm serving as a feedback controller. The paper provides some insights on the stability and tracking properties of this interconnection. Finally, the paper applies this methodology to a real-time optimal power flow problem in power systems, and shows its efficacy on the IEEE 37-node distribution test feeder for reference power tracking and voltage regulation., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures

Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCLs) such as air conditioners and water heaters typically maintain their temperature within a preset range using on/off actuation. These types of loads are inherently flexible: many different power consumption trajectories exist that can keep the temperature within range. Decades of research has shown that flexible loads can provide valuable grid services. Quantifying the power and energy capacities of a collection of TCLs is a well-studied problem. However, most works focus on temperature constraints. In this work, we present a characterization of the capacity of a collection of TCLs that considers not only temperature, but also cycling and energy constraints. The characterization leads to a set of convex constraints. A grid operator can use this characterization to compute a feasible power consumption trajectory for an ensemble of TCLs that comes closest to what the operator needs to maintain demand-supply balance. Unlike prior attempts at capacity characterizations incorporating cycling constraints, our results are independent of the algorithm used to coordinate the TCLs., Comment: 10 pages

Demand dispatch is the science of extracting virtual energy storage through the automatic control of deferrable loads to provide balancing or regulation services to the grid, while maintaining consumer-end quality of service (QoS). The control of a large collection of heterogeneous loads is in part a resource allocation problem, since different classes of loads are valuable for different services. The goal of this paper is to unveil the structure of the optimal solution to the resource allocation problem and to investigate short term market implications. It is found that the marginal cost for each load class evolves on a two-dimensional subspace, spanned by an optimal costate process and its derivative. The resource allocation problem is recast to construct a dynamic competitive equilibrium model, in which the consumer utility is the negative of the cost of deviation from ideal QoS. It is found that a competitive equilibrium exists, with the equilibrium price equal to the negative of an optimal costate process. Moreover, the equilibrium price is different from what would be obtained based on the standard assumption that the consumer's utility is a function of power consumption., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, 31 references, preprint version of conference paper to appear in IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2019

The objective in this paper is to obtain fast converging reinforcement learning algorithms to approximate solutions to the problem of discounted cost optimal stopping in an irreducible, uniformly ergodic Markov chain, evolving on a compact subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$. We build on the dynamic programming approach taken by Tsitsikilis and Van Roy, wherein they propose a Q-learning algorithm to estimate the optimal state-action value function, which then defines an optimal stopping rule. We provide insights as to why the convergence rate of this algorithm can be slow, and propose a fast-converging alternative, the "Zap-Q-learning" algorithm, designed to achieve optimal rate of convergence. For the first time, we prove the convergence of the Zap-Q-learning algorithm under the assumption of linear function approximation setting. We use ODE analysis for the proof, and the optimal asymptotic variance property of the algorithm is reflected via fast convergence in a finance example.

Duality between estimation and optimal control is a problem of rich historical significance. The first duality principle appears in the seminal paper of Kalman-Bucy, where the problem of minimum variance estimation is shown to be dual to a linear quadratic (LQ) optimal control problem. Duality offers a constructive proof technique to derive the Kalman filter equation from the optimal control solution. This paper generalizes the classical duality result of Kalman-Bucy to the nonlinear filter: The state evolves as a continuous-time Markov process and the observation is a nonlinear function of state corrupted by an additive Gaussian noise. A dual process is introduced as a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE). The process is used to transform the problem of minimum variance estimation into an optimal control problem. Its solution is obtained from an application of the maximum principle, and subsequently used to derive the equation of the nonlinear filter. The classical duality result of Kalman-Bucy is shown to be a special case., Comment: 8 pages, 58th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (Dec. 2019)

The Robbins-Monro stochastic approximation algorithm is a foundation of many algorithmic frameworks for reinforcement learning (RL), and often an efficient approach to solving (or approximating the solution to) complex optimal control problems. However, in many cases practitioners are unable to apply these techniques because of an inherent high variance. This paper aims to provide a general foundation for "quasi-stochastic approximation," in which all of the processes under consideration are deterministic, much like quasi-Monte-Carlo for variance reduction in simulation. The variance reduction can be substantial, subject to tuning of pertinent parameters in the algorithm. This paper introduces a new coupling argument to establish optimal rate of convergence provided the gain is sufficiently large. These results are established for linear models, and tested also in non-ideal settings. A major application of these general results is a new class of RL algorithms for deterministic state space models. In this setting, the main contribution is a class of algorithms for approximating the value function for a given policy, using a different policy designed to introduce exploration.

Feedback particle filter (FPF) is a numerical algorithm to approximate the solution of the nonlinear filtering problem in continuous-time settings. In any numerical implementation of the FPF algorithm, the main challenge is to numerically approximate the so-called gain function. A numerical algorithm for gain function approximation is the subject of this paper. The exact gain function is the solution of a Poisson equation involving a probability-weighted Laplacian $\Delta_\rho$. The numerical problem is to approximate this solution using {\em only} finitely many particles sampled from the probability distribution $\rho$. A diffusion map-based algorithm was proposed by the authors in a prior work to solve this problem. The algorithm is named as such because it involves, as an intermediate step, a diffusion map approximation of the exact semigroup $e^{\Delta_\rho}$. The original contribution of this paper is to carry out a rigorous error analysis of the diffusion map-based algorithm. The error is shown to include two components: bias and variance. The bias results from the diffusion map approximation of the exact semigroup. The variance arises because of finite sample size. Scalings and upper bounds are derived for bias and variance. These bounds are then illustrated with numerical experiments that serve to emphasize the effects of problem dimension and sample size. The proposed algorithm is applied to two filtering examples and comparisons provided with the sequential importance resampling (SIR) particle filter.

Value functions derived from Markov decision processes arise as a central component of algorithms as well as performance metrics in many statistics and engineering applications of machine learning techniques. Computation of the solution to the associated Bellman equations is challenging in most practical cases of interest. A popular class of approximation techniques, known as Temporal Difference (TD) learning algorithms, are an important sub-class of general reinforcement learning methods. The algorithms introduced in this paper are intended to resolve two well-known difficulties of TD-learning approaches: Their slow convergence due to very high variance, and the fact that, for the problem of computing the relative value function, consistent algorithms exist only in special cases. First we show that the gradients of these value functions admit a representation that lends itself to algorithm design. Based on this result, a new class of differential TD-learning algorithms is introduced. For Markovian models on Euclidean space with smooth dynamics, the algorithms are shown to be consistent under general conditions. Numerical results show dramatic variance reduction when compared to standard methods., Comment: Preliminary versions of some of the results in this article were submitted as arXiv:1604.01828

This paper revisits the question of duality between minimum variance estimation and optimal control first described for the linear Gaussian case in the celebrated paper of Kalman and Bucy. A duality result is established for nonlinear filtering, mirroring closely the original Kalman-Bucy duality of control and estimation for linear systems. The result for the finite state-space continuous time Markov chain is presented. It's solution is used to derive the classical Wonham filter., Comment: 6 pages, 2019 American Control Conference

Acceleration is an increasingly common theme in the stochastic optimization literature. The two most common examples are Nesterov's method, and Polyak's momentum technique. In this paper two new algorithms are introduced for root finding problems: 1) PolSA is a root finding algorithm with specially designed matrix momentum, and 2) NeSA can be regarded as a variant of Nesterov's algorithm, or a simplification of PolSA. The PolSA algorithm is new even in the context of optimization (when cast as a root finding problem). The research surveyed in this paper is motivated by applications to reinforcement learning. It is well known that most variants of TD- and Q-learning may be cast as SA (stochastic approximation) algorithms, and the tools from general SA theory can be used to investigate convergence and bounds on convergence rate. In particular, the asymptotic variance is a common metric of performance for SA algorithms, and is also one among many metrics used in assessing the performance of stochastic optimization algorithms. There are two well known SA techniques that are known to have optimal asymptotic variance: the Ruppert-Polyak averaging technique, and stochastic Newton-Raphson (SNR). The former algorithm can have extremely bad transient performance, and the latter can be computationally expensive. It is demonstrated here that parameter estimates from the new PolSA algorithm couple with those of the ideal (but more complex) SNR algorithm. The new algorithm is thus a third approach to obtain optimal asymptotic covariance. These strong results require assumptions on the model. A linearized model is considered, and the noise is assumed to be a martingale difference sequence. Numerical results are obtained in a non-linear setting that is the motivation for this work: In PolSA implementations of Q-learning it is observed that coupling occurs with SNR in this non-ideal setting.

A new methodology is presented for the construction of control variates to reduce the variance of additive functionals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. Our control variates are definedthrough the minimization of the asymptotic variance of the Langevin diffusion over a family of functions, which can be seen as a quadratic risk minimization procedure. The use of these control variates is theoretically justified. We show that the asymptotic variances of some well-known MCMC algorithms, including the Random Walk Metropolis and the (Metropolis) Unadjusted/Adjusted Langevin Algorithm, are close to the asymptotic variance of the Langevin diffusion. Several examples of Bayesian inference problems demonstrate that the corresponding reduction in the variance is significant.

This paper concerns computation of optimal policies in which the one-step reward function contains a cost term that models Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to nominal dynamics. This technique was introduced by Todorov in 2007, where it was shown under general conditions that the solution to the average-reward optimality equations reduce to a simple eigenvector problem. Since then many authors have sought to apply this technique to control problems and models of bounded rationality in economics. A crucial assumption is that the input process is essentially unconstrained. For example, if the nominal dynamics include randomness from nature (e.g., the impact of wind on a moving vehicle), then the optimal control solution does not respect the exogenous nature of this disturbance. This paper introduces a technique to solve a more general class of action-constrained MDPs. The main idea is to solve an entire parameterized family of MDPs, in which the parameter is a scalar weighting the one-step reward function. The approach is new and practical even in the original unconstrained formulation.

For a discrete-time Markov chain $\{X(t)\}$ evolving on $\Re^\ell$ with transition kernel $P$, natural, general conditions are developed under which the following are established: 1. The transition kernel $P$ has a purely discrete spectrum, when viewed as a linear operator on a weighted Sobolev space $L_\infty^{v,1}$ of functions with norm, $$ \|f\|_{v,1} = \sup_{x \in \Re^\ell} \frac{1}{v(x)} \max \{|f(x)|, |\partial_1 f(x)|,\ldots,|\partial_\ell f(x)|\}, $$ where $v\colon \Re^\ell \to [1,\infty)$ is a Lyapunov function and $\partial_i:=\partial/\partial x_i$. 2. The Markov chain is geometrically ergodic in $L_\infty^{v,1}$: There is a unique invariant probability measure $\pi$ and constants $B<\infty$ and $\delta>0$ such that, for each $f\in L_\infty^{v,1}$, any initial condition $X(0)=x$, and all $t\geq 0$: $$\Big| \text{E}_x[f(X(t))] - \pi(f)\Big| \le Be^{-\delta t}v(x),\quad \|\nabla \text{E}_x[f(X(t))] \|_2 \le Be^{-\delta t} v(x), $$ where $\pi(f)=\int fd\pi$. 3. For any function $f\in L_\infty^{v,1}$ there is a function $h\in L_\infty^{v,1}$ solving Poisson's equation: \[ h-Ph = f-\pi(f). \] Part of the analysis is based on an operator-theoretic treatment of the sensitivity process that appears in the theory of Lyapunov exponents., Comment: 33 pages; The paper has been accepted for publication in the Annals of Probability

The Zap Q-learning algorithm introduced in this paper is an improvement of Watkins' original algorithm and recent competitors in several respects. It is a matrix-gain algorithm designed so that its asymptotic variance is optimal. Moreover, an ODE analysis suggests that the transient behavior is a close match to a deterministic Newton-Raphson implementation. This is made possible by a two time-scale update equation for the matrix gain sequence. The analysis suggests that the approach will lead to stable and efficient computation even for non-ideal parameterized settings. Numerical experiments confirm the quick convergence, even in such non-ideal cases. A secondary goal of this paper is tutorial. The first half of the paper contains a survey on reinforcement learning algorithms, with a focus on minimum variance algorithms.

This paper is concerned with the analysis of the kernel-based algorithm for gain function approximation in the feedback particle filter. The exact gain function is the solution of a Poisson equation involving a probability-weighted Laplacian. The kernel-based method -- introduced in our prior work -- allows one to approximate this solution using {\em only} particles sampled from the probability distribution. This paper describes new representations and algorithms based on the kernel-based method. Theory surrounding the approximation is improved and a novel formula for the gain function approximation is derived. A procedure for carrying out error analysis of the approximation is introduced. Certain asymptotic estimates for bias and variance are derived for the general nonlinear non-Gaussian case. Comparison with the constant gain function approximation is provided. The results are illustrated with the aid of some numerical experiments.

A distributed control architecture is presented that is intended to make a collection of heterogeneous loads appear to the grid operator as a nearly perfect battery. Local control is based on randomized decision rules advocated in prior research, and extended in this paper to any load with a discrete number of power states. Additional linear filtering at the load ensures that the input-output dynamics of the aggregate has a nearly flat input-output response: the behavior of an ideal, multi-GW battery system., Comment: Extended version of the paper that was published in Proc. 50th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), 2017. This version contains an extended appendix that provides details relevant to the simulations, including: (i) design of the optimal linear inverse filter in Appendix A2, and (ii) the creation of nominal transition matrices for TCLs using Monte Carlo in Appendix A3

It is now well known that flexibility of energy consumption can be harnessed for the purposes of grid-level ancillary services. In particular, through distributed control of a collection of loads, a balancing authority regulation signal can be tracked accurately, while ensuring that the quality of service (QoS) for each load is acceptable {\it on average}. In this paper it is argued that a histogram of QoS is approximately Gaussian, and consequently each load will eventually receive poor service. Statistical techniques are developed to estimate the mean and variance of QoS as a function of the power spectral density of the regulation signal. It is also shown that additional local control can eliminate risk: The histogram of QoS is {\it truncated} through this local control, so that strict bounds on service quality are guaranteed. While there is a tradeoff between the grid-level tracking performance (capacity and accuracy) and the bounds imposed on QoS, it is found that the loss of capacity is minor in typical cases., Comment: Submitted for publication, August 2016. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1409.6941

A new approach to computation of optimal policies for MDP (Markov decision process) models is introduced. The main idea is to solve not one, but an entire family of MDPs, parameterized by a weighting factor $\zeta$ that appears in the one-step reward function. For an MDP with $d$ states, the family of value functions $\{ h^*_\zeta : \zeta\in\Re\}$ is the solution to an ODE, $$ \frac{d}{d\zeta} h^*_\zeta = {\cal V}(h^*_\zeta) $$ where the vector field ${\cal V}\colon\Re^d\to\Re^d$ has a simple form, based on a matrix inverse. This general methodology is applied to a family of average-cost optimal control models in which the one-step reward function is defined by Kullback-Leibler divergence. The motivation for this reward function in prior work is computation: The solution to the MDP can be expressed in terms of the Perron-Frobenius eigenvector for an associated positive matrix. The drawback with this approach is that no hard constraints on the control are permitted. It is shown here that it is possible to extend this framework to model randomness from nature that cannot be modified by the controller. Perron-Frobenius theory is no longer applicable -- the resulting dynamic programming equations appear as complex as a completely unstructured MDP model. Despite this apparent complexity, it is shown that this class of MDPs admits a solution via this new ODE technique. This approach is new and practical even for the simpler problem in which randomness from nature is absent., Comment: Submitted to SICON

Consider a stochastic process $\{X(t)\}$ on a finite state space $ {\sf X}=\{1,\dots, d\}$. It is conditionally Markov, given a real-valued `input process' $\{\zeta(t)\}$. This is assumed to be small, which is modeled through the scaling, \[ \zeta_t = \varepsilon \zeta^1_t, \qquad 0\le \varepsilon \le 1\,, \] where $\{\zeta^1(t)\}$ is a bounded stationary process. The following conclusions are obtained, subject to smoothness assumptions on the controlled transition matrix and a mixing condition on $\{\zeta(t)\}$: (i) A stationary version of the process is constructed, that is coupled with a stationary version of the Markov chain $\{X^\bullet$(t)\}obtained with $\{\zeta(t)\}\equiv 0$. The triple $(\{X(t)\}, \{X^\bullet(t)\},\{\zeta(t)\})$ is a jointly stationary process satisfying \[ {\sf P}\{X(t) \neq X^\bullet(t)\} = O(\varepsilon) \] Moreover, a second-order Taylor-series approximation is obtained: \[ {\sf P}\{X(t) =i \} ={\sf P}\{X^\bullet(t) =i \} + \varepsilon^2 \varrho(i) + o(\varepsilon^2),\quad 1\le i\le d, \] with an explicit formula for the vector $\varrho\in\mathbb{R}^d$. (ii) For any $m\ge 1$ and any function $f\colon \{1,\dots,d\}\times \mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}^m$, the stationary stochastic process $Y(t) = f(X(t),\zeta(t))$ has a power spectral density $\text{S}_f$ that admits a second order Taylor series expansion: A function $\text{S}^{(2)}_f\colon [-\pi,\pi] \to \mathbb{C}^{ m\times m}$ is constructed such that \[ \text{S}_f(\theta) = \text{S}^\bullet_f(\theta) + \varepsilon^2 \text{S}_f^{(2)}(\theta) + o(\varepsilon^2),\quad \theta\in [-\pi,\pi] . \] An explicit formula for the function $\text{S}_f^{(2)}$ is obtained, based in part on the bounds in (i). The results are illustrated using a version of the timing channel of Anantharam and Verdu.