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We consider the problem of predicting perturbation effects via causal models. In many applications, it is a priori unknown which mechanisms of a system are modified by an external perturbation, even though the features of the perturbation are available. For example, in genomics, some properties of a drug may be known, but not their causal effects on the regulatory pathways of cells. We propose a generative intervention model (GIM) that learns to map these perturbation features to distributions over atomic interventions in a jointly-estimated causal model. Contrary to prior approaches, this enables us to predict the distribution shifts of unseen perturbation features while gaining insights about their mechanistic effects in the underlying data-generating process. On synthetic data and scRNA-seq drug perturbation data, GIMs achieve robust out-of-distribution predictions on par with unstructured approaches, while effectively inferring the underlying perturbation mechanisms, often better than other causal inference methods.

Generative AI has shown its values for many software engineering tasks. Still in its infancy, large language model (LLM)-based proof generation lags behind LLM-based code generation. In this paper, we present AutoVerus. AutoVerus uses LLM to automatically generate correctness proof for Rust code. AutoVerus is designed to match the unique features of Verus, a verification tool that can prove the correctness of Rust code using proofs and specifications also written in Rust. AutoVerus consists of a network of LLM agents that are crafted and orchestrated to mimic human experts' three phases of proof construction: preliminary proof generation, proof refinement guided by generic tips, and proof debugging guided by verification errors. To thoroughly evaluate AutoVerus and help foster future research in this direction, we have built a benchmark suite of 150 non-trivial proof tasks, based on existing code-generation benchmarks and verification benchmarks. Our evaluation shows that AutoVerus can automatically generate correct proof for more than 90% of them, with more than half of them tackled in less than 30 seconds or 3 LLM calls.

The orientation in which a source image is captured can affect the resulting security in downstream applications. One reason for this is that many state-of-the-art methods in media security assume that image statistics are similar in the horizontal and vertical directions, allowing them to reduce the number of features (or trainable weights) by merging coefficients. We show that this artificial symmetrization tends to suppress important properties of natural images and common processing operations, causing a loss of performance. We also observe the opposite problem, where unaddressed directionality causes learning-based methods to overfit to a single orientation. These are vulnerable to manipulation if an adversary chooses inputs with the less common orientation. This paper takes a comprehensive approach, identifies and systematizes causes of directionality at several stages of a typical acquisition pipeline, measures their effect, and demonstrates for three selected security applications (steganalysis, forensic source identification, and the detection of synthetic images) how the performance of state-of-the-art methods can be improved by properly accounting for directionality.

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal ordering. Several popular algorithms exploit these artifacts, possibly leading to conclusions that do not generalize to real-world settings. Existing metrics like $\operatorname{Var}$-sortability and $\operatorname{R^2}$-sortability quantify these patterns, but they do not provide tools to remedy them. To address this, we propose internally-standardized structural causal models (iSCMs), a modification of SCMs that introduces a standardization operation at each variable during the generative process. By construction, iSCMs are not $\operatorname{Var}$-sortable, and as we show experimentally, not $\operatorname{R^2}$-sortable either for commonly-used graph families. Moreover, contrary to the post-hoc standardization of data generated by standard SCMs, we prove that linear iSCMs are less identifiable from prior knowledge on the weights and do not collapse to deterministic relationships in large systems, which may make iSCMs a useful model in causal inference beyond the benchmarking problem studied here., Comment: Added additional benchmarks, including PC algorithm, GES, GOLEM. Evaluated Var-sortability and R2-sortability of the heuristics for mitigating variance accumulation

We develop a novel approach towards causal inference. Rather than structural equations over a causal graph, we learn stochastic differential equations (SDEs) whose stationary densities model a system's behavior under interventions. These stationary diffusion models do not require the formalism of causal graphs, let alone the common assumption of acyclicity. We show that in several cases, they generalize to unseen interventions on their variables, often better than classical approaches. Our inference method is based on a new theoretical result that expresses a stationarity condition on the diffusion's generator in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The resulting kernel deviation from stationarity (KDS) is an objective function of independent interest., Comment: AISTATS 2024

Several recent advances in AI systems solve problems by providing a "scaffolding" program that structures multiple calls to language models (LMs) to generate better outputs. A scaffolding program is written in a programming language such as Python. In this work, we use a language-model-infused scaffolding program to improve itself. We start with a seed "improver" that improves an input program according to a given utility function by querying an LM several times and returning the best solution. We then run this seed improver to improve itself. Across a small set of downstream tasks, the resulting improved improver generates programs with significantly better performance than its seed improver. A variety of self-improvement strategies are proposed by the language model, including beam search, genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing. Since the language models themselves are not altered, this is not full recursive self-improvement. Nonetheless, it demonstrates that a modern language model, GPT-4 in our experiments, is capable of writing code that can call itself to improve itself. We consider concerns around the development of self-improving technologies and evaluate the frequency with which the generated code bypasses a sandbox., Comment: Published as a conference paper at COLM 2024

J-UNIWARD is a popular steganography method for hiding secret messages in JPEG cover images. As a content-adaptive method, J-UNIWARD aims to embed into textured image regions where changes are difficult to detect. To this end, J-UNIWARD first assigns to each DCT coefficient an embedding cost calculated based on the image's Wavelet residual, and then uses a coding method that minimizes the cost while embedding the desired payload. Changing one DCT coefficient affects a 23x23 window of Wavelet coefficients. To speed up the costmap computation, the original implementation pre-computes the Wavelet residual and then considers per changed DCT coefficient a 23x23 window of the Wavelet residual. However, the implementation accesses a window accidentally shifted by one pixel to the bottom right. In this report, we evaluate the effect of this off-by-one error on the resulting costmaps. Some image blocks are over-priced while other image blocks are under-priced, but the difference is relatively small. The off-by-one error seems to make little difference for learning-based steganalysis.

Learning-based algorithms for automated license plate recognition implicitly assume that the training and test data are well aligned. However, this may not be the case under extreme environmental conditions, or in forensic applications where the system cannot be trained for a specific acquisition device. Predictions on such out-of-distribution images have an increased chance of failing. But this failure case is oftentimes hard to recognize for a human operator or an automated system. Hence, in this work we propose to model the prediction uncertainty for license plate recognition explicitly. Such an uncertainty measure allows to detect false predictions, indicating an analyst when not to trust the result of the automated license plate recognition. In this paper, we compare three methods for uncertainty quantification on two architectures. The experiments on synthetic noisy or blurred low-resolution images show that the predictive uncertainty reliably finds wrong predictions. We also show that a multi-task combination of classification and super-resolution improves the recognition performance by 109\% and the detection of wrong predictions by 29 %.

We report the development of a multileaf collimator (MLC) for charged particle beams, based on independently actuated tungsten strips which can selectively scatter unwanted particles. The MLC is used in conjunction with an emittance exchange beamline to rapidly generate highly variable longitudinal bunch profiles. The developed MLC consists of 40 independent leaves that are 2 mm wide and can move up to 10 mm, and operates in an ultra high vacuum environment, enabled by novel features such as magnetically coupled actuation. An experiment at the Argonne Wakefield Accelerator, which previously used inflexible, laser-cut masks for beam shaping before an emittance exchange beamline, was conducted to test functionality. The experiment demonstrated myriad transverse mask silhouettes, as measured on a scintillator downstream of the MLC and the corresponding longitudinal profiles after emittance exchange, as measured using a transverse deflecting cavity. Rapidly changing between mask shapes enables expeditious execution of various experiments without the downtime associated with traditional methods. The many degrees of freedom of the MLC can enable optimization of experimental figures of merit using feed-forward control and advanced machine learning methods., Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest., Comment: NeurIPS 2022 camera-ready version. RP & JvK are shared last authors. 10 pages + Bibliography + Appendix (34 pages total)

Inferring causal structures from experimentation is a central task in many domains. For example, in biology, recent advances allow us to obtain single-cell expression data under multiple interventions such as drugs or gene knockouts. However, the targets of the interventions are often uncertain or unknown and the number of observations limited. As a result, standard causal discovery methods can no longer be reliably used. To fill this gap, we propose a Bayesian framework (BaCaDI) for discovering and reasoning about the causal structure that underlies data generated under various unknown experimental or interventional conditions. BaCaDI is fully differentiable, which allows us to infer the complex joint posterior over the intervention targets and the causal structure via efficient gradient-based variational inference. In experiments on synthetic causal discovery tasks and simulated gene-expression data, BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets., Comment: Accepted to AISTATS 2023. 26 pages

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici., Comment: NeurIPS 2022, fixed formatting of Figure 5

In many applications of forensic image analysis, state-of-the-art results are nowadays achieved with machine learning methods. However, concerns about their reliability and opaqueness raise the question whether such methods can be used in criminal investigations. So far, this question of legal compliance has hardly been discussed, also because legal regulations for machine learning methods were not defined explicitly. To this end, the European Commission recently proposed the artificial intelligence (AI) act, a regulatory framework for the trustworthy use of AI. Under the draft AI act, high-risk AI systems for use in law enforcement are permitted but subject to compliance with mandatory requirements. In this paper, we review why the use of machine learning in forensic image analysis is classified as high-risk. We then summarize the mandatory requirements for high-risk AI systems and discuss these requirements in light of two forensic applications, license plate recognition and deep fake detection. The goal of this paper is to raise awareness of the upcoming legal requirements and to point out avenues for future research.