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We explore synergies between the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Wide Area Survey (HLWAS) and CMB experiments, specifically Simons Observatory (SO) and CMB-Stage4 (S4). Our simulated analyses include weak lensing, photometric galaxy clustering, CMB lensing, thermal SZ, and cross-correlations between these probes. While we assume the nominal 16,500 square degree area for SO and S4, we consider multiple survey designs for Roman that overlap with Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST): the 2000 square degree reference survey using four photometric bands, and two shallower single-band surveys that cover 10,000 and 18,000 square degree, respectively. We find a ~2x increase in the dark energy figure of merit when including CMB-S4 data for all Roman survey designs. We further find a strong increase in constraining power for the Roman wide survey scenario cases, despite the reduction in galaxy number density, and the increased systematic uncertainties assumed due to the single band coverage. Even when tripling the already worse systematic uncertainties in the Roman wide scenarios, which reduces the 10,000 square degree FoM from 269 to 178, we find that the larger survey area is still significantly preferred over the reference survey (FoM 64). We conclude that for the specific analysis choices and metrics of this paper, a Roman wide survey is unlikely to be systematics-limited (in the sense that one saturates the improvement that can be obtained by increasing survey area). We outline several specific implementations of a two-tier Roman survey (1000 square degree with 4 bands, and a second wide tier in one band) that can further mitigate the risk of systematics for Roman wide concepts., Comment: Comments welcome!

Robust modeling of non-linear scales is critical for accurate cosmological inference in Stage IV surveys. For weak lensing analyses in particular, a key challenge arises from the incomplete understanding of how non-gravitational processes, such as supernovae and active galactic nuclei - collectively known as baryonic feedback - affect the matter distribution. Several existing methods for modeling baryonic feedback treat it independently from the underlying cosmology, an assumption which has been found to be inaccurate by hydrodynamical simulations. In this work, we examine the impact of this coupling between baryonic feedback and cosmology on parameter inference at LSST Y1 precision. We build mock 3$\times$2pt data vectors using the Magneticum suite of hydrodynamical simulations, which span a wide range of cosmologies while keeping subgrid parameters fixed. We perform simulated likelihood analyses for two baryon mitigation techniques: (i) the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method which identifies eigenmodes for capturing the effect baryonic feedback on the data vector and (ii) HMCode2020 (Mead et al. 2021) which analytically models the modification in the matter distribution using a halo model approach. Our results show that the PCA method is robust to the coupling between cosmology and baryonic feedback, whereas, when using HMCode2020 there can be up to $0.5\sigma$ bias in $\Omega_\text{m}$-$S_8$. For HMCode2020, the bias also correlates with the input cosmology while for PCA we find no such correlation., Comment: correction to acknowledgements

Statistical properties of LSS serve as powerful tools to constrain the cosmological properties of our Universe. Tracing the gas pressure, the tSZ effect is a biased probe of mass distribution and can be used to test the physics of feedback or cosmological models. Therefore, it is crucial to develop robust modeling of hot gas pressure for applications to tSZ surveys. Since gas collapses into bound structures, it is expected that most of the tSZ signal is within halos produced by cosmic accretion shocks. Hence, simple empirical halo models can be used to predict the tSZ power spectra. In this study, we employed the HMx halo model to compare the tSZ power spectra with those of several hydrodynamical simulations: the Horizon suite and the Magneticum simulation. We examined various contributions to the tSZ power spectrum across different redshifts, including the one- and two-halo term decomposition, the amount of bound gas, the importance of different masses and the electron pressure profiles. Our comparison of the tSZ power spectrum reveals discrepancies that increase with redshift. We find a 20% to 50% difference between the measured and predicted tSZ angular power spectrum over the multipole range $\ell=10^3-10^4$. Our analysis reveals that these differences are driven by the excess of power in the predicted two-halo term at low k and in the one-halo term at high k. At higher redshifts (z~3), simulations indicate that more power comes from outside the virial radius than from inside suggesting a limitation in the applicability of the halo model. We observe differences in the pressure profiles, despite the fair level of agreement on the tSZ power spectrum at low redshift with the default calibration of the halo model. In conclusion, our study suggests that the properties of the halo model need to be carefully controlled against real or mock data to be proven useful for cosmological purposes., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures

We present the first detection of a cluster lensing signal with `Kinematic Lensing' (KL), a novel weak lensing method that combines photometry, spectroscopy, and the Tully-Fisher relation to enable shear measurements with individual source galaxies. This is the second paper in a two-part series aimed at measuring a KL signal from data. The first paper, arXiv:2209.11811, describes the inference pipeline, which jointly forward models galaxy imaging and spectroscopy, and demonstrates unbiased shear inference with simulated data. This paper presents measurements of the lensing signal from the galaxy cluster Abell 2261. We obtain spectroscopic observations of background disk galaxies in the cluster field selected from the CLASH Subaru catalog. The final sample consists of three source galaxies while the remaining are rejected due to insufficient signal-to-noise, spectroscopic failures, and inadequately sampled rotation curves. We apply the KL inference pipeline to the three sources and find the shear estimates to be in broad agreement with traditional weak lensing measurements. The typical shear measurement uncertainty for our sources is $\sigma(g_+)\approx 0.026$, which represents approximately a ten-fold improvement over the weak lensing shape noise. We identify target selection and observing strategy as the key avenues of improvement for future KL programs., Comment: v1: To be submitted to MNRAS. Comments are welcome!

We explore the science prospects of a 14,000 deg$^2$ Kinematic Lensing (KL) survey with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and overlapping imaging surveys. KL infers the cosmic shear signal by jointly forward modeling the observed photometric image and velocity field of a disk galaxy. The latter can be constrained by placing multiple DESI fibers along the galaxy's major and minor axis, a concept similar to the DESI Peculiar Velocity Survey. We study multiple subset galaxy samples of the DESI Legacy Survey Data Release 9 catalog and quantify the residual shape noise, $\sigma_\epsilon$, of each sample as a function of cuts in $r$-band magnitude using mock observations. We conduct simulated likelihood analyses for these galaxy samples and find that a DESI-KL program can place highly interesting constraints on structure formation at very low redshifts, i.e. $\sigma_8(z<0.15)$. We conclude that if the $S_8$ tension consolidates as a phenomenon, a DESI-KL survey can provide unique insights into this phenomenon in the very late-time Universe. Given the different footprints of DESI and Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), lensing results from both surveys are highly complementary and can be combined into a joint lensing survey. We further note that DESI-KL benefits multiple additional science cases, e.g. studies of modified gravity models when combined with peculiar velocity surveys, and dark matter studies that are based on galaxy-galaxy lensing of dwarf galaxies.

For the joint analysis of second-order weak lensing and galaxy clustering statistics, so-called $3{\times}2$ analyses, the selection and characterization of optimal galaxy samples is a major area of research. One promising choice is to use the same galaxy sample as lenses and sources, which reduces the systematics parameter space that describes uncertainties related to galaxy samples. Such a "lens-equal-source" analysis significantly improves self-calibration of photo-z systematics leading to improved cosmological constraints. With the aim to enable a lens-equal-source analysis on small scales we investigate the halo-galaxy connection of DES-Y3 source galaxies. We develop a technique to construct mock source galaxy populations by matching COSMOS/UltraVISTA photometry onto UniverseMachine galaxies. These mocks predict a source halo occupation distribution (HOD) that exhibits significant redshift evolution, non-trivial central incompleteness and galaxy assembly bias. We produce multiple realizations of mock source galaxies drawn from the UniverseMachine posterior with added uncertainties in measured DES photometry and galaxy shapes. We fit a modified HOD formalism to these realizations to produce priors on the galaxy-halo connection for cosmological analyses. We additionally train an emulator that predicts this HOD to $\sim2\%$ accuracy from redshift $z = 0.1 - 1.3$ that models the dependence of this HOD on 1) observational uncertainties in galaxy size and photometry, and 2) uncertainties in the UniverseMachine predictions., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, 1 table. Submitted to The Astrophysical Journal

We train neural networks to quickly generate redshift-space galaxy power spectrum covariances from a given parameter set (cosmology and galaxy bias). This covariance emulator utilizes a combination of traditional fully-connected network layers and transformer architecture to accurately predict covariance matrices for the high redshift, north galactic cap sample of the BOSS DR12 galaxy catalog. We run simulated likelihood analyses with emulated and brute-force computed covariances, and we quantify the network's performance via two different metrics: 1) difference in $\chi^2$ and 2) likelihood contours for simulated BOSS DR 12 analyses. We find that the emulator returns excellent results over a large parameter range. We then use our emulator to perform a re-analysis of the BOSS HighZ NGC galaxy power spectrum, and find that varying covariance with cosmology along with the model vector produces $\Omega_m = 0.276^{+0.013}_{-0.015}$, $H_0 = 70.2\pm 1.9$ km/s/Mpc, and $\sigma_8 = 0.674^{+0.058}_{-0.077}$. These constraints represent an average $0.46\sigma$ shift in best-fit values and a $5\%$ increase in constraining power compared to fixing the covariance matrix ($\Omega_m = 0.293\pm 0.017$, $H_0 = 70.3\pm 2.0$ km/s/Mpc, $\sigma_8 = 0.702^{+0.063}_{-0.075}$). This work demonstrates that emulators for more complex cosmological quantities than second-order statistics can be trained over a wide parameter range at sufficiently high accuracy to be implemented in realistic likelihood analyses., Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, to be submitted to Physical Review D

SPHEREx, the Spectro-Photometer for the History of the Universe, Epoch of Reionization, and ices Explorer, is a NASA MIDEX mission planned for launch in 2024. SPHEREx will carry out the first all-sky spectral survey at wavelengths between 0.75 micron and 5 micron with spectral resolving power ~40 between 0.75 and 3.8 micron and ~120 between 3.8 and 5 micron At the end of its two-year mission, SPHEREx will provide 0.75-to-5 micron spectra of each 6.2"x6.2" pixel on the sky - 14 billion spectra in all. This paper updates an earlier description of SPHEREx presenting changes made during the mission's Preliminary Design Phase, including a discussion of instrument integration and test and a summary of the data processing, analysis, and distribution plans.

Kinematic lensing (KL) is a new weak lensing technique that reduces shape noise for disk galaxies by including spectroscopically measured galaxy kinematics in addition to photometrically measured galaxy shapes. Since KL utilizes the Tully-Fisher relation, any correlation of this relation with the local environment may bias the cosmological interpretation. For the first time, we explore such a Tully-Fisher environmental dependence (TED) effect as a potential astrophysical systematic for KL. Our derivation of the TED systematic can be described in a similar analytical form as intrinsic alignment for traditional weak lensing. We demonstrate analytically that TED only impacts KL if intrinsic aligment for disk galaxies is non-zero. We further use IllustrisTNG simulations to quantify the TED effect. Our two-point correlation measurements do not yield any additional coherent signals that would indicate a systematic bias on KL, within the uncertainties set by the simulation volume., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, to be submitted to PRD

Validating modeling choices through simulated analyses and quantifying the impact of different systematic effects will form a major computational bottleneck in the preparation for 3$\times$2 analysis with Stage-IV surveys such as Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We can significantly reduce the computational requirements by using machine learning based emulators, which allow us to run fast inference while maintaining the full realism of the data analysis pipeline. In this paper, we use such an emulator to run simulated 3$\times$2 (cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering) analyses for mock LSST-Y1/Y3/Y6/Y10 surveys and study the impact of various systematic effects (galaxy bias, intrinsic alignment, baryonic physics, shear calibration and photo-$z$ uncertainties). Closely following the DESC Science Requirement Document (with several updates) our main findings are: {\it a)} The largest contribution to the `systematic error budget' of LSST 3$\times$2 analysis comes from galaxy bias uncertainties, while the contribution of baryonic and shear calibration uncertainties are significantly less important. {\it b)} Tighter constraints on intrinsic alignment and photo-$z$ parameters can improve cosmological constraints noticeably, which illustrates synergies of LSST and spectroscopic surveys. {\it c)} The scale cuts adopted in the DESC SRD may be too conservative and pushing to smaller scales can increase cosmological information significantly. {\it d)} We investigate the impact of photo-$z$ outliers on 3$\times$2 pt analysis and find that we need to determine the outlier fraction to within $5-10\%$ accuracy to ensure robust cosmological analysis. We caution that these findings depend on analysis choices (parameterizations, priors, scale cuts) and can change for different settings., Comment: 16 pages, 10 Figures, To be submitted to PRD. Comments welcome

The next generation of cosmological surveys is expected to generate unprecedented high-quality data, consequently increasing the already substantial computational costs of Bayesian statistical methods. This will pose a significant challenge to analyzing theoretical models of cosmology. Additionally, new mitigation techniques of baryonic effects, intrinsic alignment, and other systematic effects will inevitably introduce more parameters, slowing down the convergence of Bayesian analyses. In this scenario, machine-learning-based accelerators are a promising solution, capable of reducing the computational costs and execution time of such tools by order of thousands. Yet, they have not been able to provide accurate predictions over the wide prior ranges in parameter space adopted by Stage III/IV collaborations in studies employing real-space two-point correlation functions. This paper offers a leap in this direction by carefully investigating the modern transformer-based neural network (NN) architectures in realistic simulated Rubin Observatory year one cosmic shear $\Lambda$CDM inferences. Building on the framework introduced in Part I, we generalize the transformer block and incorporate additional layer types to develop a more versatile architecture. We present a scalable method to efficiently generate an extensive training dataset that significantly exceeds the scope of prior volumes considered in Part I, while still meeting strict accuracy standards. Through our meticulous architecture comparison and comprehensive hyperparameter optimization, we establish that the attention-based architecture performs an order of magnitude better in accuracy than widely adopted NN designs. Finally, we test and apply our emulators to calibrate tension metrics.

We present a new class of machine-learning emulators that accurately model the cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering real space correlation functions in the context of Rubin Observatory year one simulated data. To illustrate its capabilities in forecasting models beyond the standard $\Lambda$CDM, we forecast how well LSST Year 1 data will be able to probe the consistency between geometry $\Omega^{\rm geo}_\mathrm{m}$ and growth $\Omega^{\rm growth}_\mathrm{m}$ dark matter densities in the so-called split $\Lambda$CDM parameterization. When trained with a few million samples, our emulator shows uniform accuracy across a wide range in an 18-dimensional parameter space. We provide a detailed comparison of three neural network designs, illustrating the importance of adopting state-of-the-art Transformer blocks. Our study also details their performance when computing Bayesian evidence for cosmic shear on three fiducial cosmologies. The transformers-based emulator is always accurate within PolyChord's precision. As an application, we use our emulator to study the degeneracies between dark energy models and growth geometry split parameterizations. We find that the growth-geometry split remains to be a meaningful test of the smooth dark energy assumption., Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures

We constrain cosmology and baryonic feedback scenarios with a joint analysis of weak lensing, galaxy clustering, cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing, and their cross-correlations (so-called 6$\times$2) using data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y1 and the Planck satellite mission. Noteworthy features of our 6$\times$2 pipeline are: We extend CMB lensing cross-correlation measurements to a band surrounding the DES Y1 footprint (a $\sim 25\%$ gain in pairs), and we develop analytic covariance capabilities that account for different footprints and all cross-terms in the 6$\times$2 analysis. We also measure the DES Y1 cosmic shear two-point correlation function (2PCF) down to $0.^\prime 25$, but find that going below $2.^\prime 5$ does not increase cosmological information due to shape noise. We model baryonic physics uncertainties via the amplitude of Principal Components (PCs) derived from a set of hydro-simulations. Given our statistical uncertainties, varying the first PC amplitude $Q_1$ is sufficient to model small-scale cosmic shear 2PCF. For DES Y1+Planck 6$\times$2 we find $S_8=0.799\pm0.016$, comparable to the 5$\times$2 result of DES Y3+SPT/Planck $S_8=0.773\pm0.016$. Combined with our most informative cosmology priors -- baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and Planck 2018 EE+lowE, we measure $S_8=0.817\pm 0.011$. Regarding baryonic physics constraints, our 6$\times$2 analysis finds $Q_1=2.8\pm1.8$. Combined with the aforementioned priors, it improves the constraint to $Q_1=3.5\pm1.3$. For comparison, the strongest feedback scenario considered in this paper, the cosmo-OWLS AGN ($\Delta T_\mathrm{heat}=10^{8.7}$ K), corresponds to $Q_1=5.84$., Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, comments are welcome!

The overlap of galaxy surveys and CMB experiments presents an ideal opportunity for joint cosmological dataset analyses. In this paper we develop a halo-model-based method for the first joint analysis combining these two experiments using 10 correlated two-point functions (10x2pt) derived from galaxy position, galaxy shear, CMB lensing convergence, and Compton-y fields. We explore this method using the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Simons Observatory (SO) as examples. We find such LSSxCMB joint analyses lead to significant improvement in Figure-of-Merit of $\Omega_m$ and $S_8$ over the constraints from using LSS-only probes within $\Lambda$CDM. We identify that the shear-$y$ and $y$-$y$ correlations are the most valuable additions when tSZ is included. We further identify the dominant sources of halo model uncertainties in the small-scale modelling, and investigate the impact of halo self-calibration due to the inclusion of small-scale tSZ information., Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, typos corrected. Accepted in MNRAS

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is capable of delivering an unprecedented all-sky, high-spatial resolution, multi-epoch infrared map to the astronomical community. This opportunity arises in the midst of numerous ground- and space-based surveys that will provide extensive spectroscopy and imaging together covering the entire sky (such as Rubin/LSST, Euclid, UNIONS, SPHEREx, DESI, SDSS-V, GALAH, 4MOST, WEAVE, MOONS, PFS, UVEX, NEO Surveyor, etc.). Roman can uniquely provide uniform high-spatial-resolution (~0.1 arcsec) imaging over the entire sky, vastly expanding the science reach and precision of all of these near-term and future surveys. This imaging will not only enhance other surveys, but also facilitate completely new science. By imaging the full sky over two epochs, Roman can measure the proper motions for stars across the entire Milky Way, probing 100 times fainter than Gaia out to the very edge of the Galaxy. Here, we propose NANCY: a completely public, all-sky survey that will create a high-value legacy dataset benefiting innumerable ongoing and forthcoming studies of the universe. NANCY is a pure expression of Roman's potential: it images the entire sky, at high spatial resolution, in a broad infrared bandpass that collects as many photons as possible. The majority of all ongoing astronomical surveys would benefit from incorporating observations of NANCY into their analyses, whether these surveys focus on nearby stars, the Milky Way, near-field cosmology, or the broader universe., Comment: Submitted to the call for white papers for the Roman Core Community Survey (June 16th, 2023), and to the Bulletin of the AAS

Early dark energy (EDE) is an extension to the $\Lambda$CDM model, proposed to reduce the tension between the measurements of the Hubble constant $H_0$ from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and from the local cosmic distance ladder. However, this model increases the $S_8$ tension between CMB and large scale structure measurements. Analyses of galaxy clustering and lensing correlation functions report a decreased preference for EDE and its effect on the Hubble tension. Smooth dark energy models affect growth of structure through the background expansion. In this work, we study the inclusion of a general, smooth late-time dark energy modification in combination with EDE and obtain constraints on EDE marginalized over the late-time expansion. We assess the impact on the $S_8$ and Hubble tensions. In order to generalize the late expansion, we use a late dark energy fluid model with a piecewise constant equation of state $w(z)$ over 3, 5 and 10 redshift bins in the window $z \in [0,3]$. We show that, when analyzing ACT and Planck CMB data combined with Pantheon supernovae, BAO from 6dF, SDSS and BOSS, Planck 2018 CMB lensing and Dark Energy Survey cosmic shear and clustering data, the inclusion of a general smooth dark energy modification at late times has no significant effect on $S_8$ and EDE parameter constraints. Using the aforementioned datasets, the EDE fraction constraint with late-time expansion marginalization is $f_\mathrm{EDE} = 0.067^{+0.019}_{-0.027}$ using 3 redshift bins, with similar results for 5 and 10 redshift bins. This work shows that in order to solve simultaneously the Hubble and $S_8$ tensions, one needs a mechanism for increasing the clustering of matter at late times different from a simple change in the background evolution of late dark energy. [Abridged], Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures

We test the smooth dark energy paradigm using Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 and Year 3 weak lensing and galaxy clustering data. Within the $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM model we separate the expansion and structure growth history by splitting $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$ (and $w$) into two meta-parameters that allow for different evolution of growth and geometry in the Universe. We consider three different combinations of priors on geometry from CMB, SNIa, BAO, BBN that differ in constraining power but have been designed such that the growth information comes solely from the DES weak lensing and galaxy clustering. For the DES-Y1 data we find no detectable tension between growth and geometry meta-parameters in both the $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM parameter space. This statement also holds for DES-Y3 cosmic shear and 3x2pt analyses. For the combination of DES-Y3 galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering (2x2pt) we measure a tension between our growth and geometry meta-parameters of 2.6$\sigma$ in the $\Lambda$CDM and 4.48$\sigma$ in the $w$CDM model space, respectively. We attribute this tension to residual systematics in the DES-Y3 RedMagic galaxy sample rather than to new physics. We plan to investigate our findings further using alternative lens samples in DES-Y3 and future weak lensing and galaxy clustering datasets., Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures, to be submitted

The statistical power of weak lensing measurements is principally driven by the number of high redshift galaxies whose shapes are resolved. Conventional wisdom and physical intuition suggest this is optimised by deep imaging at long (red or near IR) wavelengths, to avoid losing redshifted Balmer break and Lyman break galaxies. We use the synthetic Emission Line EL-COSMOS catalogue to simulate lensing observations using different filters, from various altitudes. Here were predict the number of exposures to achieve a target z > 0.3 source density, using off-the-shelf and custom filters. Ground-based observations are easily better at red wavelengths, as (more narrowly) are space-based observations. However, we find that SuperBIT, a diffraction-limited observatory operating in the stratosphere, should instead perform its lensing-quality observations at blue wavelengths.

The unknown intrinsic shape of source galaxies is one of the largest uncertainties of weak gravitational lensing (WL). It results in the so-called shape noise at the level of $\sigma_\epsilon^{\mathrm{WL}} \approx 0.26$, whereas the shear effect of interest is of order percent. Kinematic lensing (KL) is a new technique that combines photometric shape measurements with resolved spectroscopic observations to infer the intrinsic galaxy shape and directly estimate the gravitational shear. This paper presents a KL inference pipeline that jointly forward-models galaxy imaging and slit spectroscopy to extract the shear signal. We build a set of realistic mock observations and show that the KL inference pipeline can robustly recover the input shear. To quantify the shear measurement uncertainty for KL, we average the shape noise over a population of randomly oriented disc galaxies and estimate it to be $\sigma_\epsilon^{\mathrm{KL}}\approx 0.022-0.041$ depending on emission line signal-to-noise. This order of magnitude improvement over traditional WL makes a KL observational program feasible with existing spectroscopic instruments. To this end, we characterize the dependence of KL shape noise on observational factors and discuss implications for the survey strategy of future KL observations. In particular, we find that prioritizing quality spectra of low inclination galaxies is more advantageous than maximizing the overall number density.

Local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) is a promising observable of the underlying physics of inflation, characterised by $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$. We present the methodology to measure $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data using the 2-point angular correlation function (ACF) with scale-dependent bias. One of the focuses of the work is the integral constraint. This condition appears when estimating the mean number density of galaxies from the data and is key in obtaining unbiased $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ constraints. The methods are analysed for two types of simulations: $\sim 246$ GOLIAT-PNG N-body small area simulations with $f_{\rm NL}$ equal to -100 and 100, and 1952 Gaussian ICE-COLA mocks with $f_{\rm NL}=0$ that follow the DES angular and redshift distribution. We use the ensemble of GOLIAT-PNG mocks to show the importance of the integral constraint when measuring PNG, where we recover the fiducial values of $f_{\rm NL}$ within the $1\sigma$ when including the integral constraint. In contrast, we found a bias of $\Delta f_{\rm NL}\sim 100$ when not including it. For a DES-like scenario, we forecast a bias of $\Delta f_{\rm NL} \sim 23$, equivalent to $1.8\sigma$, when not using the IC for a fiducial value of $f_{\rm NL}=100$. We use the ICE-COLA mocks to validate our analysis in a realistic DES-like setup finding it robust to different analysis choices: best-fit estimator, the effect of IC, BAO damping, covariance, and scale choices. We forecast a measurement of $f_{\rm NL}$ within $\sigma(f_{\rm NL})=31$ when using the DES-Y3 BAO sample, with the ACF in the $1\ {\rm deg}<\theta<20\ {\rm deg}$ range., Comment: Version after MNRAS reviewer comments. Improved discussion in Section 7. 16 pages, 11 figures

Over the past few decades, astronomical and cosmological data sets firmly established the existence of physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics by providing strong evidence for the existence of dark matter, dark energy, and non-zero neutrino mass. In addition, the generation of primordial perturbations most likely also relies on physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. Theory work, ranging from models of the early universe in string theory that that led to novel phenomenological predictions to the development of effective field theories to large-scale cosmological simulations that include the physics of galaxy evolution, has played a key role in analyzing and interpreting these data sets and in suggesting novel paths forward to isolate the origins of this new physics. Over the next decade, even more sensitive surveys are beginning to take data and are being planned. In this white paper, we describe key areas of the theory program that will be needed to optimize the physics return on investment from these new observational opportunities., Comment: Contribution to Snowmass 2021

Studying the impact of systematic effects, optimizing survey strategies, assessing tensions between different probes and exploring synergies of different data sets require a large number of simulated likelihood analyses, each of which cost thousands of CPU hours. In this paper, we present a method to accelerate cosmological inference using emulators based on Gaussian process regression and neural networks. We iteratively acquire training samples in regions of high posterior probability which enables accurate emulation of data vectors even in high dimensional parameter spaces. We showcase the performance of our emulator with a simulated 3x2 point analysis of LSST-Y1 with realistic theoretical and systematics modelling. We show that our emulator leads to high-fidelity posterior contours, with an order of magnitude speed-up. Most importantly, the trained emulator can be re-used for extremely fast impact and optimization studies. We demonstrate this feature by studying baryonic physics effects in LSST-Y1 3x2 point analyses where each one of our MCMC runs takes approximately 5 minutes. This technique enables future cosmological analyses to map out the science return as a function of analysis choices and survey strategy., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, To be submitted to MNRAS

Kinematic lensing (KL) is a new cosmological measurement technique that combines traditional weak lensing (WL) shape measurements of disc galaxies with their kinematic information. Using the Tully-Fisher relation KL breaks the degeneracy between intrinsic and observed ellipticity and significantly reduces the impact of multiple systematics that are present in traditional WL. We explore the performance of KL given the instrument capabilities of the $\textit{Roman Space Telescope}$, assuming overlap of the High Latitude Imaging Survey (HLIS), the High Latitude Spectroscopy Survey (HLSS) over 2,000 deg$^2$. Our KL suitable galaxy sample has a number density of $n_{\mathrm{gal}}=4~\mathrm{arcmin}^{-1}$ with an estimated shape noise level of $\sigma_{\epsilon}=0.035$. We quantify the cosmological constraining power on $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}}$-$S_8$, $w_p$-$w_a$ by running simulated likelihood analyses that account for redshift and shear calibration uncertainties, intrinsic alignment and baryonic feedback. Compared to a traditional WL survey we find that KL significantly improves the constraining power on $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}}$-$S_8$ (FoM$_{\mathrm{KL}}$=1.70FoM$_{\mathrm{WL}}$) and $w_p$-$w_a$ (FoM$_{\mathrm{KL}}$=3.65FoM$_{\mathrm{WL}}$). We also explore a "narrow tomography KL survey" using 30 instead of the default 10 tomographic bins, however we find no meaningful enhancement to the FoM even when assuming a significant time-dependence in our fiducial dark energy input scenarios.

We explore synergies between the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope and CMB lensing data to constrain dark energy and modified gravity scenarios. A simulated likelihood analysis of the galaxy clustering and weak lensing data from the Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Survey combined with CMB lensing data from the Simons Observatory is undertaken, marginalizing over important astrophysical effects and calibration uncertainties. Included in the modeling are the effects of baryons on small-scale clustering, scale-dependent growth suppression by neutrinos, as well as uncertainties in the galaxy clustering biases, in the intrinsic alignment contributions to the lensing signal, in the redshift distributions, and in the galaxy shape calibration. The addition of CMB lensing roughly doubles the dark energy figure-of-merit from Roman photometric survey data alone, varying from a factor of 1.7 to 2.4 improvement depending on the particular Roman survey configuration. Alternatively, the inclusion of CMB lensing information can compensate for uncertainties in the Roman galaxy shape calibration if it falls below the design goals. Furthermore, we report the first forecast of Roman constraints on a model-independent structure growth, parameterized by $\sigma_8 (z)$, and on the Hu-Sawicki f(R) gravity as well as an improved forecast of the phenomenological $(\Sigma_0,\mu_0)$ model. We find that CMB lensing plays a crucial role in constraining $\sigma_8(z)$ at z>2, with percent-level constraints forecasted out to z=4. CMB lensing information does not improve constraints on the f(R) models substantially. It does, however, increase the $(\Sigma_0,\mu_0)$ figure-of-merit by a factor of about 1.5., Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, replaced with accepted version in MNRAS

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will conduct a High Latitude Spectroscopic Survey (HLSS) over a large volume at high redshift, using the near-IR grism (1.0-1.93 $\mu$m, $R=435-865$) and the 0.28 deg$^2$ wide field camera. We present a reference HLSS which maps 2000 deg$^2$ and achieves an emission line flux limit of 10$^{-16}$ erg/s/cm$^2$ at 6.5$\sigma$, requiring $\sim$0.6 yrs of observing time. We summarize the flowdown of the Roman science objectives to the science and technical requirements of the HLSS. We construct a mock redshift survey over the full HLSS volume by applying a semi-analytic galaxy formation model to a cosmological N-body simulation, and use this mock survey to create pixel-level simulations of 4 deg$^2$ of HLSS grism spectroscopy. We find that the reference HLSS would measure $\sim$ 10 million H$\alpha$ galaxy redshifts that densely map large scale structure at $z=1-2$ and 2 million [OIII] galaxy redshifts that sparsely map structures at $z=2-3$. We forecast the performance of this survey for measurements of the cosmic expansion history with baryon acoustic oscillations and the growth of large scale structure with redshift space distortions. We also study possible deviations from the reference design, and find that a deep HLSS at $f_{\rm line}>7\times10^{-17}$erg/s/cm$^2$ over 4000 deg$^2$ (requiring $\sim$1.5 yrs of observing time) provides the most compelling stand-alone constraints on dark energy from Roman alone. This provides a useful reference for future optimizations. The reference survey, simulated data sets, and forecasts presented here will inform community decisions on the final scope and design of the Roman HLSS., Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, ApJ submitted

In the near future, the overlap of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Simons Observatory (SO) will present an ideal opportunity for joint cosmological dataset analyses. In this paper we simulate the joint likelihood analysis of these two experiments using six two-point functions derived from galaxy position, galaxy shear, and CMB lensing convergence fields. Our analysis focuses on realistic noise and systematics models and we find that the dark energy Figure-of-Merit (FoM) increases by 53% (92%) from LSST-only to LSST+SO in Year 1 (Year 6). We also investigate the benefits of using the same galaxy sample for both clustering and lensing analyses, and find the choice improves the overall signal-to-noise by ~30-40%, which significantly improves the photo-z calibration and mildly improves the cosmological constraints. Finally, we explore the effects of catastrophic photo-z outliers finding that they cause significant parameter biases when ignored. We develop a new mitigation approach termed "island model", which corrects a large fraction of the biases with only a few parameters while preserving the constraining power., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, matching MNRAS accepted version

The tightest and most robust cosmological results of the next decade will be achieved by bringing together multiple surveys of the Universe. This endeavor has to happen across multiple layers of the data processing and analysis, e.g., enhancements are expected from combining Euclid, Rubin, and Roman (as well as other surveys) not only at the level of joint processing and catalog combination, but also during the post-catalog parts of the analysis such as the cosmological inference process. While every experiment builds their own analysis and inference framework and creates their own set of simulations, cross-survey work that homogenizes these efforts, exchanges information from numerical simulations, and coordinates details in the modeling of astrophysical and observational systematics of the corresponding datasets is crucial., Comment: Response to the NASA/DOE Request for Information call, focus area 3

We present the statistical methods that have been developed to analyse the OzDES reverberation mapping sample. To perform this statistical analysis we have created a suite of customisable simulations that mimic the characteristics of each source in the OzDES sample. These characteristics include: the variability in the photometric and spectroscopic lightcurves, the measurement uncertainties, and the observational cadence. By simulating the sources in the OzDES sample that contain the CIV emission line, we developed a set of criteria that rank the reliability of a recovered time lag depending on the agreement between different recovery methods, the magnitude of the uncertainties, and the rate at which false positives were found in the simulations. These criteria were applied to simulated light curves and these results used to estimate the quality of the resulting Radius-Luminosity relation.We grade the results using three quality levels (gold, silver and bronze). The input slope of the R-L relation was recovered within $1\sigma$ for each of the three quality samples, with the gold standard having the lowest dispersion with a recovered a R-L relation slope of $0.454\pm 0.016$ with an input slope of 0.47. Future work will apply these methods to the entire OzDES sample of 771 AGN., Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in NMRAS

We study a phenomenological class of models where dark matter converts to dark radiation in the low redshift epoch. This class of models, dubbed DMDR, characterizes the evolution of comoving dark matter density with two extra parameters, and may be able to help alleviate the observed discrepancies between early- and late-time probes of the universe. We investigate how the conversion affects key cosmological observables such as the CMB temperature and matter power spectra. Combining 3x2pt data from Year 1 of the Dark Energy Survey, {\it Planck}-2018 CMB temperature and polarization data, supernovae (SN) Type Ia data from Pantheon, and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data from BOSS DR12, MGS and 6dFGS, we place new constraints on the amount of dark matter that has converted to dark radiation and the rate of this conversion. The fraction of the dark matter that has converted since the beginning of the universe in units of the current amount of dark matter, $\zeta$, is constrained at 68\% confidence level to be $<0.32$ for DES-Y1 3x2pt data, $<0.030$ for CMB+SN+BAO data, and $<0.037$ for the combined dataset. The probability that the DES and CMB+SN+BAO datasets are concordant increases from 4\% for the $\Lambda$CDM model to 8\% (less tension) for DMDR. The tension in $S_8 = \sigma_8 \sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3}$ between DES-Y1 3x2pt and CMB+SN+BAO is slightly reduced from $2.3\sigma$ to $1.9\sigma$. We find no reduction in the Hubble tension when the combined data is compared to distance-ladder measurements in the DMDR model. The maximum-posterior goodness-of-fit statistics of DMDR and $\Lambda$CDM model are comparable, indicating no preference for the DMDR cosmology over $\Lambda$CDM., Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures. DES extensions group. Accepted by PRD

This paper presents optical night sky brightness measurements from the stratosphere using CCD images taken with the Super-pressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT). The data used for estimating the backgrounds were obtained during three commissioning flights in 2016, 2018, and 2019 at altitudes ranging from 28 km to 34 km above sea level. For a valid comparison of the brightness measurements from the stratosphere with measurements from mountain-top ground-based observatories (taken at zenith on the darkest moonless night at high Galactic and high ecliptic latitudes), the stratospheric brightness levels were zodiacal light and diffuse Galactic light subtracted, and the airglow brightness was projected to zenith. The stratospheric brightness was measured around 5.5 hours, 3 hours, and 2 hours before the local sunrise time in 2016, 2018, and 2019 respectively. The $B$, $V$, $R$, and $I$ brightness levels in 2016 were 2.7, 1.0, 1.1, and 0.6 mag arcsec$^{-2}$ darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The $B$, $V$, and $R$ brightness levels in 2018 were 1.3, 1.0, and 1.3 mag arcsec$^{-2}$ darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The $U$ and $I$ brightness levels in 2019 were 0.1 mag arcsec$^{-2}$ brighter than the darkest ground-based measurements, whereas the $B$ and $V$ brightness levels were 0.8 and 0.6 mag arcsec$^{-2}$ darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The lower sky brightness levels, stable photometry, and lower atmospheric absorption make stratospheric observations from a balloon-borne platform a unique tool for astronomy. We plan to continue this work in a future mid-latitude long duration balloon flight with SuperBIT., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal

Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607$\pm$7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ~$10^{-3}$ accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67-002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20-yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302-102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna., Comment: Accepted to MNRAS, 17 pages, 9 figures

Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3$\times$2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modeling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude ($Q_1$) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of $Q_1$ prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach $\sim 20\%$ improvement in the constraint of $S_8=\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ compared to the original DES 3$\times$2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5 arcmin, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain $S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative $Q_1$ prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure $Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$ for DES Y1 only and $Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$ for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than $2 \sigma$., Comment: 22 pages, 18 figures, 2 tables. accepted to MNRAS. A brief video summary of this paper is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbeNwk5papU

The Tri-Agency Cosmological Simulations (TACS) Task Force was formed when Program Managers from the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) expressed an interest in receiving input into the cosmological simulations landscape related to the upcoming DOE/NSF Vera Rubin Observatory (Rubin), NASA/ESA's Euclid, and NASA's Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). The Co-Chairs of TACS, Katrin Heitmann and Alina Kiessling, invited community scientists from the USA and Europe who are each subject matter experts and are also members of one or more of the surveys to contribute. The following report represents the input from TACS that was delivered to the Agencies in December 2018., Comment: 36 pages, 3 figures. Delivered to NASA, NSF, and DOE in Dec 2018

We simulate the scientific performance of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) High Latitude Survey (HLS) on dark energy and modified gravity. The 1.6 year HLS Reference survey is currently envisioned to image 2000 deg$^2$ in multiple bands to a depth of $\sim$26.5 in Y, J, H and to cover the same area with slit-less spectroscopy beyond z=3. The combination of deep, multi-band photometry and deep spectroscopy will allow scientists to measure the growth and geometry of the Universe through a variety of cosmological probes (e.g., weak lensing, galaxy clusters, galaxy clustering, BAO, Type Ia supernova) and, equally, it will allow an exquisite control of observational and astrophysical systematic effects. In this paper we explore multi-probe strategies that can be implemented given WFIRST's instrument capabilities. We model cosmological probes individually and jointly and account for correlated systematics and statistical uncertainties due to the higher order moments of the density field. We explore different levels of observational systematics for the WFIRST survey (photo-z and shear calibration) and ultimately run a joint likelihood analysis in N-dim parameter space. We find that the WFIRST reference survey alone (no external data sets) can achieve a standard dark energy FoM of >300 when including all probes. This assumes no information from external data sets and realistic assumptions for systematics. Our study of the HLS reference survey should be seen as part of a future community driven effort to simulate and optimize the science return of WFIRST., Comment: comments welcome

Accurate covariance matrices for two-point functions are critical for inferring cosmological parameters in likelihood analyses of large-scale structure surveys. Among various approaches to obtaining the covariance, analytic computation is much faster and less noisy than estimation from data or simulations. However, the transform of covariances from Fourier space to real space involves integrals with two Bessel integrals, which are numerically slow and easily affected by numerical uncertainties. Inaccurate covariances may lead to significant errors in the inference of the cosmological parameters. In this paper, we introduce a 2D-FFTLog algorithm for efficient, accurate and numerically stable computation of non-Gaussian real space covariances for both 3D and projected statistics. The 2D-FFTLog algorithm is easily extended to perform real space bin-averaging. We apply the algorithm to the covariances for galaxy clustering and weak lensing for a Dark Energy Survey Year 3-like and a Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1-like survey, and demonstrate that for both surveys, our algorithm can produce numerically stable angular bin-averaged covariances with the flat sky approximation, which are sufficiently accurate for inferring cosmological parameters. The code CosmoCov for computing the real space covariances with or without the flat sky approximation is released along with this paper., Comment: MNRAS accepted; 13 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables; fixed a typo in Eq.41; 2DFFTLog code available at https://github.com/xfangcosmo/2DFFTLog ; 3x2pt covariance code CosmoCov at https://github.com/CosmoLike/CosmoCov

We explore synergies between the space-based Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) and the ground-based Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In particular, we consider a scenario where the currently envisioned survey strategy for WFIRST's High Latitude Survey (HLS), i.e., 2000 square degrees in four narrow photometric bands is altered in favor of a strategy that combines rapid coverage of the LSST area (to full LSST depth) in one band. We find that a 5-month WFIRST survey in the W-band can cover the full LSST survey area providing high-resolution imaging for >95% of the LSST Year 10 gold galaxy sample. We explore a second, more ambitious scenario where WFIRST spends 1.5 years covering the LSST area. For this second scenario we quantify the constraining power on dark energy equation of state parameters from a joint weak lensing and galaxy clustering analysis, and compare it to an LSST-only survey and to the Reference WFIRST HLS survey. Our survey simulations are based on the WFIRST exposure time calculator and redshift distributions from the CANDELS catalog. Our statistical uncertainties account for higher-order correlations of the density field, and we include a wide range of systematic effects, such as uncertainties in shape and redshift measurements, and modeling uncertainties of astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic galaxy alignment, and baryonic physics. Assuming the 5-month WFIRST wide scenario, we find a significant increase in constraining power for the joint LSST+WFIRST wide survey compared to LSST Y10 (FoM(Wwide)= 2.4 FoM(LSST)) and compared to LSST+WFIRST HLS (FoM(Wwide)= 5.5 FoM(HLS))., Comment: added references, comments welcome

We report the identification of a low-mass AGN, DES J0218$-$0430, in a redshift $z = 0.823$ galaxy in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Supernova field. We select DES J0218$-$0430 as an AGN candidate by characterizing its long-term optical variability alone based on DES optical broad-band light curves spanning over 6 years. An archival optical spectrum from the fourth phase of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey shows both broad Mg II and broad H$\beta$ lines, confirming its nature as a broad-line AGN. Archival XMM-Newton X-ray observations suggest an intrinsic hard X-ray luminosity of $L_{{\rm 2-12\,keV}}\sim7.6\pm0.4\times10^{43}$ erg s$^{-1}$, which exceeds those of the most X-ray luminous starburst galaxies, in support of an AGN driving the optical variability. Based on the broad H$\beta$ from SDSS spectrum, we estimate a virial BH mass of $M_{\bullet}\approx10^{6.43}$-$10^{6.72}M_{\odot}$ (with the error denoting 1$\sigma$ statistical uncertainties only), consistent with the estimation from OzDES, making it the lowest mass AGN with redshift $>$ 0.4 detected in optical. We estimate the host galaxy stellar mass to be $M_{\ast}\sim10^{10.5\pm0.3}M_{\odot}$ based on modeling the multi-wavelength spectral energy distribution. DES J0218$-$0430 extends the $M_{\bullet}$-$M_{\ast}$ relation observed in luminous AGNs at $z\sim1$ to masses lower than being probed by previous work. Our work demonstrates the feasibility of using optical variability to identify low-mass AGNs at higher redshift in deeper synoptic surveys with direct implications for the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time at Vera C. Rubin Observatory., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, accepted to MNRAS

We report on small-amplitude optical variability and recent dissipation of the unusually persistent broad emission lines in the blue compact dwarf galaxy PHL 293B. The galaxy's unusual spectral features (P Cygni-like profiles with $\sim$800 km s$^{-1}$ blueshifted absorption lines) have resulted in conflicting interpretations of the nature of this source in the literature. However, analysis of new Gemini spectroscopy reveals the broad emission has begun to fade after being persistent for over a decade prior. Precise difference imaging light curves constructed with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Survey reveal small-amplitude optical variability of $\sim$0.1 mag in the g band offset by $100\pm21$ pc from the brightest pixel of the host. The light curve is well-described by an active galactic nuclei (AGN)-like damped random walk process. However, we conclude that the origin of the optical variability and spectral features of PHL 293B is due to a long-lived stellar transient, likely a Type IIn supernova or non-terminal outburst, mimicking long-term AGN-like variability. This work highlights the challenges of discriminating between scenarios in such extreme environments, relevant to searches for AGNs in dwarf galaxies. This is the second long-lived transient discovered in a blue compact dwarf, after SDSS1133. Our result implies such long-lived stellar transients may be more common in metal-deficient galaxies. Systematic searches for low-level variability in dwarf galaxies will be possible with the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time at Vera C. Rubin Observatory., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

We perform a joint analysis of the counts and weak lensing signal of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 dataset. Our analysis uses the same shear and source photometric redshifts estimates as were used in the DES combined probes analysis. Our analysis results in surprisingly low values for $S_8 =\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}= 0.65\pm 0.04$, driven by a low matter density parameter, $\Omega_{\rm m}=0.179^{+0.031}_{-0.038}$, with $\sigma_8-\Omega_{\rm m}$ posteriors in $2.4\sigma$ tension with the DES Y1 3x2pt results, and in $5.6\sigma$ with the Planck CMB analysis. These results include the impact of post-unblinding changes to the analysis, which did not improve the level of consistency with other data sets compared to the results obtained at the unblinding. The fact that multiple cosmological probes (supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB anisotropies), and other galaxy cluster analyses all favor significantly higher matter densities suggests the presence of systematic errors in the data or an incomplete modeling of the relevant physics. Cross checks with X-ray and microwave data, as well as independent constraints on the observable--mass relation from SZ selected clusters, suggest that the discrepancy resides in our modeling of the weak lensing signal rather than the cluster abundance. Repeating our analysis using a higher richness threshold ($\lambda \ge 30$) significantly reduces the tension with other probes, and points to one or more richness-dependent effects not captured by our model., Comment: 35 pages, 20 figures, submitted to Physical Review D

Angular two-point statistics of large-scale structure observables are important cosmological probes. To reach the high accuracy required by the statistical precision of future surveys, some of these statistics may need to be computed without the commonly employed Limber approximation; the exact computation however requires integration over Bessel functions, and a brute-force evaluation is slow to converge. We present a new method based on our generalized FFTLog algorithm for the efficient computation of angular power spectra beyond the Limber approximation. The new method significantly simplifies the calculation and improves the numerical speed and stability. It is easily extended to handle integrals involving derivatives of Bessel functions, making it equally applicable to numerically more challenging cases such as contributions from redshift-space distortions and Doppler effects. We implement our method for galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing power spectra. We find that using the Limber approximation for galaxy clustering in future analyses like LSST Year 1 and DES Year 6 may cause significant biases in cosmological parameters, indicating that going beyond the Limber approximation is necessary for these analyses., Comment: match JCAP accepted version; 23 pages + 2 appendices, 8 figures, Code available at https://github.com/xfangcosmo/FFTLog-and-beyond

At a fraction the total cost of an equivalent orbital mission, scientific balloon-borne platforms, operating above 99.7% of the Earth's atmosphere, offer attractive, competitive, and effective observational capabilities -- namely space-like resolution, transmission, and backgrounds -- that are well suited for modern astronomy and cosmology. SuperBIT is a diffraction-limited, wide-field, 0.5 m telescope capable of exploiting these observing conditions in order to provide exquisite imaging throughout the near-IR to near-UV. It utilizes a robust active stabilization system that has consistently demonstrated a 1 sigma sky-fixed pointing stability at 48 milliarcseconds over multiple 1 hour observations at float. This is achieved by actively tracking compound pendulations via a three-axis gimballed platform, which provides sky-fixed telescope stability at < 500 milliarcseconds and corrects for field rotation, while employing high-bandwidth tip/tilt optics to remove residual disturbances across the science imaging focal plane. SuperBIT's performance during the 2019 commissioning flight benefited from a customized high-fidelity science-capable telescope designed with exceptional thermo- and opto-mechanical stability as well as tightly constrained static and dynamic coupling between high-rate sensors and telescope optics. At the currently demonstrated level of flight performance, SuperBIT capabilities now surpass the science requirements for a wide variety of experiments in cosmology, astrophysics and stellar dynamics., Comment: The following article has been submitted to Review of Scientific Instruments (RSI)

We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in one-dimensional marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in one-dimensional posteriors of $\Omega_{\rm m}$ and $\sigma_{\rm 8}$ due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear correlations functions using the mock data ($100$ deg$^{2}$). We also present a systematic approach to constructing approximate multivariate likelihoods with one-dimensional parametric functions by assuming independence or more flexible non-parametric multivariate methods after decorrelating the data points using principal component analysis (PCA). While the use of PCA does not modify the non-Gaussianity of the multivariate likelihood, we find empirically that the one-dimensional marginal sampling distributions of the PCA components exhibit less skewness and kurtosis than the original shear correlation functions.Modeling the likelihood with marginal parametric functions based on the assumption of independence between PCA components thus gives a lower limit for the biases. We further demonstrate that the difference in cosmological parameter constraints between the multivariate Gaussian likelihood model and more complex non-Gaussian likelihood models would be even smaller for an LSST-like survey. In addition, the PCA approach automatically serves as a data compression method, enabling the retention of the majority of the cosmological information while reducing the dimensionality of the data vector by a factor of $\sim$5., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, published MNRAS

The Core Cosmology Library (CCL) provides routines to compute basic cosmological observables to a high degree of accuracy, which have been verified with an extensive suite of validation tests. Predictions are provided for many cosmological quantities, including distances, angular power spectra, correlation functions, halo bias and the halo mass function through state-of-the-art modeling prescriptions available in the literature. Fiducial specifications for the expected galaxy distributions for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) are also included, together with the capability of computing redshift distributions for a user-defined photometric redshift model. A rigorous validation procedure, based on comparisons between CCL and independent software packages, allows us to establish a well-defined numerical accuracy for each predicted quantity. As a result, predictions for correlation functions of galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy lensing and cosmic shear are demonstrated to be within a fraction of the expected statistical uncertainty of the observables for the models and in the range of scales of interest to LSST. CCL is an open source software package written in C, with a python interface and publicly available at https://github.com/LSSTDESC/CCL., Comment: 38 pages, 18 figures, matches ApJS accepted version

Cosmology is one of the four science pillars of LSST, which promises to be transformative for our understanding of dark energy and dark matter. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) has been tasked with deriving constraints on cosmological parameters from LSST data. Each of the cosmological probes for LSST is heavily impacted by the choice of observing strategy. This white paper is written by the LSST DESC Observing Strategy Task Force (OSTF), which represents the entire collaboration, and aims to make recommendations on observing strategy that will benefit all cosmological analyses with LSST. It is accompanied by the DESC DDF (Deep Drilling Fields) white paper (Scolnic et al.). We use a variety of metrics to understand the effects of the observing strategy on measurements of weak lensing, large-scale structure, clusters, photometric redshifts, supernovae, strong lensing and kilonovae. In order to reduce systematic uncertainties, we conclude that the current baseline observing strategy needs to be significantly modified to result in the best possible cosmological constraints. We provide some key recommendations: moving the WFD (Wide-Fast-Deep) footprint to avoid regions of high extinction, taking visit pairs in different filters, changing the 2x15s snaps to a single exposure to improve efficiency, focusing on strategies that reduce long gaps (>15 days) between observations, and prioritizing spatial uniformity at several intervals during the 10-year survey., Comment: The LSST DESC response (WFD) to the Call for White Papers on LSST Cadence Optimization. Comments welcome

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) will use five cosmological probes: galaxy clusters, large scale structure, supernovae, strong lensing, and weak lensing. This Science Requirements Document (SRD) quantifies the expected dark energy constraining power of these probes individually and together, with conservative assumptions about analysis methodology and follow-up observational resources based on our current understanding and the expected evolution within the field in the coming years. We then define requirements on analysis pipelines that will enable us to achieve our goal of carrying out a dark energy analysis consistent with the Dark Energy Task Force definition of a Stage IV dark energy experiment. This is achieved through a forecasting process that incorporates the flowdown to detailed requirements on multiple sources of systematic uncertainty. Future versions of this document will include evolution in our software capabilities and analysis plans along with updates to the LSST survey strategy., Comment: 32 pages + 60 pages of appendices. This is v1.0.2 of the DESC SRD, an internal collaboration document that is being made public and is not planned for submission to a journal. Data products for reproducing key plots are available on Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1409815 ; see "Executive Summary and User Guide" for how to use and cite those products

Modifications of the matter power spectrum due to baryonic physics are one of the major theoretical uncertainties in cosmological weak lensing measurements. Developing robust mitigation schemes for this source of systematic uncertainty increases the robustness of cosmological constraints, and may increase their precision if they enable the use of information from smaller scales. Here we explore the performance of two mitigation schemes for baryonic effects in weak lensing cosmic shear: the PCA method and the halo-model approach in \textsc{HMcode}. We construct mock tomographic shear power spectra from four hydrodynamical simulations, and run simulated likelihood analyses with \textsc{CosmoLike} assuming LSST-like survey statistics. With an angular scale cut of $\ell_{\rm max}<2000$, both methods successfully remove the biases in cosmological parameters due to the various baryonic physics scenarios, with the PCA method causing less degradation in the parameter constraints than \textsc{HMcode}. For a more aggressive $\ell_{\rm max}=$5000, the PCA method performs well for all but one baryonic physics scenario, requiring additional training simulations to account for the extreme baryonic physics scenario of Illustris; \textsc{HMcode} exhibits tensions in the 2D posterior distributions of cosmological parameters due to lack of freedom in describing the power spectrum for $k > 10\ h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$. We investigate variants of the PCA method and improve the bias mitigation through PCA by accounting for the noise properties in the data via Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix. Our improved PCA method allows us to retain more statistical constraining power while effectively mitigating baryonic uncertainties even for a broad range of baryonic physics scenarios., Comment: 29 pages, 19 figures, accepted to MNRAS

In the past few years, several independent collaborations have presented cosmological constraints from tomographic cosmic shear analyses. These analyses differ in many aspects: the datasets, the shear and photometric redshift estimation algorithms, the theory model assumptions, and the inference pipelines. To assess the robustness of the existing cosmic shear results, we present in this paper a unified analysis of four of the recent cosmic shear surveys: the Deep Lens Survey (DLS), the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS), the Science Verification data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SV), and the 450 deg$^{2}$ release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-450). By using a unified pipeline, we show how the cosmological constraints are sensitive to the various details of the pipeline. We identify several analysis choices that can shift the cosmological constraints by a significant fraction of the uncertainties. For our fiducial analysis choice, considering a Gaussian covariance, conservative scale cuts, assuming no baryonic feedback contamination, identical cosmological parameter priors and intrinsic alignment treatments, we find the constraints (mean, 16% and 84% confidence intervals) on the parameter $S_{8}\equiv \sigma_{8}(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}$ to be $S_{8}=0.94_{-0.045}^{+0.046}$ (DLS), $0.66_{-0.071}^{+0.070}$ (CFHTLenS), $0.84_{-0.061}^{+0.062}$ (DES-SV) and $0.76_{-0.049}^{+0.048}$ (KiDS-450). From the goodness-of-fit and the Bayesian evidence ratio, we determine that amongst the four surveys, the two more recent surveys, DES-SV and KiDS-450, have acceptable goodness-of-fit and are consistent with each other. The combined constraints are $S_{8}=0.79^{+0.042}_{-0.041}$, which is in good agreement with the first year of DES cosmic shear results and recent CMB constraints from the Planck satellite., Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures, 7 tables; submitted to MNRAS

Balloon-borne astronomy is a unique tool that allows for a level of image stability and significantly reduced atmospheric interference without the often prohibitive cost and long development time-scale that are characteristic of space-borne facility-class instruments. The Super-pressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT) is a wide-field imager designed to provide 0.02" image stability over a 0.5 degree field-of-view for deep exposures within the visible-to-near-UV (300-900 um). As such, SuperBIT is a suitable platform for a wide range of balloon-borne observations, including solar and extrasolar planetary spectroscopy as well as resolved stellar populations and distant galaxies. We report on the overall payload design and instrumentation methodologies for SuperBIT as well as telescope and image stability results from two test flights. Prospects for the SuperBIT project are outlined with an emphasis on the development of a fully operational, three-month science flight from New Zealand in 2020., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to and presented at the SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 2018 conference (Austin, TX). arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1608.02502

Cosmic acceleration is the most surprising cosmological discovery in many decades. Testing and distinguishing among possible explanations requires cosmological measurements of extremely high precision probing the full history of cosmic expansion and structure growth and, ideally, compare and contrast matter and relativistic tracers of the gravity potential. This program is one of the defining objectives of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST), as set forth in the New Worlds, New Horizons report (NWNH) in 2010. The WFIRST mission has the ability to improve these measurements by 1-2 orders of magnitude compared to the current state of the art, while simultaneously extending their redshift grasp, greatly improving control of systematic effects, and taking a unified approach to multiple probes that provide complementary physical information and cross-checks of cosmological results. We describe in this annual report the activities of the Science Investigation Team (SIT) "Cosmology with the High Latitude Survey (HLS)" during the year 2017. This team was selected by NASA in December 2015 in order to address the stringent challenges of the WFIRST dark energy (DE) program through the Project's formulation phase. This SIT has elected to jointly address Galaxy Redshift Survey, Weak Lensing and Cluster Growth and thus fully embrace the fact that the imaging and spectroscopic elements of the HLS will be realized as an integrated observing program, and they jointly impose requirements on performance and operations. WFIRST is designed to be able to deliver a definitive result on the origin of cosmic acceleration. It is not optimized for Figure of Merit sensitivity but for control of systematic uncertainties and for having multiple techniques each with multiple cross-checks. Our SIT work focuses on understanding the potential systematics in the WFIRST DE measurements., Comment: This document is an annual report. A higher version of this document can be found here (http://www.wfirst-hls-cosmology.org/products/). This document does not constitute an official WFIRST Project document