1. Kinetic exchange opinion dynamics for the battleground-states in the 2024 US presidential elections
- Author
-
Biswas, Soumyajyoti, Sen, Parongama, Thota, Bhargav, Kodali, Hemanth, Datta, I. Vinay, and Akash, K. Madhu Venkata
- Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society - Abstract
The strongly polarizing political discourse in the U. S. implies that a small minority of the population, determining the outcome of the presidential elections in a few so called battleground-states, also determines the outcome of the overall election. Given the almost equal distributions of the electoral college members in the so-called blue and red states, the members elected from these battleground states would determine the election results. We build a kinetic exchange opinion model that takes into account the dynamical nature of the opinions of the individuals in the battleground states and the already determined core voters of the non-battleground states. In a fully connected graph, we consider the interaction among the population in the battleground states while the agents in the non-battleground states are assumed to have fixed opinions. We provide the analytical results and numerical simulations using realistic parameters from the opinion poll of the previous election's data. Counter-intuitively, a more noisy environment predicts a higher chance of the Democrats' win., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures
- Published
- 2024