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Excentrodendron tonkinense is a constructive species of karst seasonal rainforest and a karst obligate plant, which is also one of the national secondary key protected wild plant and an IUCN endangered plant, with high ecological economic value. In order to explore how the potential suitable areas of E. tonkinense change in the context of global change and its key driving factors, we used the maximum-entropy(MaxEnt)model to analyze the potential geographical distribution changes in China under future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), and tested the influence of the karst geological background distribution on predicting the suitable areas of karst obligate plants. The results were as follows:(1)In the case of adding karst geological background data, the average AUC value of the prediction model for the suitable area was 0.997, which had a good prediction effect. And the model prediction results were strictly limited to the karst region, consistent with the characteristics of karst obligate plant E. tonkinense.(2)According to the fitting results of the model, the karst geological background, the precipitation of the warmest quarter(800-950 mm), and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(7-11 ℃)were the key factors limiting the distribution of E. tonkinense.(3)With the increase of temperature in the future, the potential suitable areas for E. tonkinense would continue to expand in higher latitude karst areas; large areas of stable habitats existed in parts of southwestern Guangxi and southeastern Yunnan. In conclusion, the karst geological distribution is essential as predicting the potential geographic distribution of karst obligate plants such as E. tonkinense; if the temperature continues to rise in the future, its potential suitable areas will expand to high latitudes, and the degree of endangerment may be affected by climate, which means that it is not obvious under the influence of climate change; parts of Southwest Guangxi and Southeast Yunnan are suitable areas for the conservation and utilization of E. tonkinense under the climate change scenarios in the future. The results provide some scientific reference for the introduction, cultivation, sustainable management, protection and utilization of E. tonkinense. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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