Search

Background: From March to June 2022, an Omicron BA.2 epidemic occurred in Shanghai. We aimed to better understand the transmission dynamics and identify age-specific transmission characteristics for the epidemic. Methods: Data on COVID-19 cases were collected from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission during the period from 20th February to 1st June. The effective reproductive number (Rt) and transmission distance between cases were calculated. An age-structured SEIR model with social contact patterns was developed to reconstruct the transmission dynamics and evaluate age-specific transmission characteristics. Least square method was used to calibrate the model. Basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated with next generation matrix. Results: R0 of Omicron variant was 7.9 (95% CI: 7.4 to 8.4). With strict interventions, Rt had dropped quickly from 3.6 (95% CI: 2.7 to 4.7) on 4th March to below 1 on 18th April. The mean transmission distance of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai was 13.4 km (95% CI: 11.1 to 15.8 km), which was threefold longer compared with that of epidemic caused by the wild-type virus in Wuhan, China. The model estimated that there would have been a total 870,845 (95% CI: 815,400 to 926,289) cases for the epidemic from 20th February to 15th June, and 27.7% (95% CI: 24.4% to 30.9%) cases would have been unascertained. People aged 50–59 years had the highest transmission risk 0.216 (95% CI: 0.210 to 0.222), and the highest secondary attack rate (47.62%, 95% CI: 38.71% to 56.53%). Conclusions: The Omicron variant spread more quickly and widely than other variants and resulted in about one third cases unascertained for the recent outbreak in Shanghai. Prioritizing isolation and screening of people aged 40–59 might suppress the epidemic more effectively. Routine surveillance among people aged 40–59 years could also provide insight into the stage of the epidemic and the timely detection of new variants. Trial registration: We did not involve clinical trial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic reported for the first time in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019, which has caused 4648 deaths in China as of July 10, 2020. This study explored the temporal correlation between the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 and particulate matter (PM) in Wuhan. We conducted a time series analysis to examine the temporal day-by-day associations. We observed a higher CFR of COVID-19 with increasing concentrations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM 10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM 2.5) in the temporal scale. This association may affect patients with mild to severe disease progression and affect their prognosis. • The daily PM 2.5 and PM 10 concentrations and the daily CFR exhibited great similarity with respect to their temporal variation curves, besides, with an obvious time lag existing between them. • The association still exists after adjusted for all possible confounders (e.g., temperature and relative humidity, SO 2 , NO 2 , CO, and O 3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]