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Underlying dynamic event processes unfolding in continuous time give rise to spatiotemporal patterns that are sometimes observable at only a few discrete times. Such event processes may be modulated simultaneously over several spatial (e.g., latitude and longitude) and temporal (e.g., age, calendar time, and cohort) dimensions. The ecological challenge is to understand the dynamic latent processes that were integrated over several dimensions (space and time) to produce the observed pattern: a so-called inverse problem. An example of such a problem is characterizing epidemiological rate processes from spatially referenced age-specific prevalence data for a wildlife disease such as chronic wasting disease (CWD). With age-specific prevalence data, the exact infection times are not observed, which complicates the direct estimation of rates. However, the relationship between the observed data and the unobserved rate variables can be described with likelihood equations. Typically, for problems with multiple timescales, the likelihoods are integral equations without closed forms. The complexity of the likelihoods often makes traditional maximum-likelihood approaches untenable. Here, using seven years of hunter-harvest prevalence data from the CWD epidemic in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Wisconsin, USA, we develop and explore a Bayesian approach that allows for a detailed examination of factors modulating the infection rates over space, age, and time, and their interactions. Our approach relies on the Bayesian ability to borrow strength from neighbors in both space and time. Synthesizing a number of areas of event time analysis (current-status data, age/period/cohort models, Bayesian spatial shared frailty models), our general framework has very broad ecological applicability beyond disease prevalence data to a number of important ecological event time analyses, including general survival studies with multiple time dimensions for which existing methodology is limited. We observed strong associations of infection rates with age, gender, and location. The infection rate appears to be increasing with time. We could not detect growth hotspots, or location by time interactions, which suggests that spatial variation in infection rates is determined primarily by when the disease arrives locally, rather than how fast it grows. We emphasize assumptions and the potential consequences of their violations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article represents a study which determines the risk factors and the estimated spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer of Wisconsin. The study utilizes the hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods for determine the cause of CWD in white-tailed deer. It revealed that age, sex, and spatial location are significant heterogenities for infection. Moreover, the study also identified the spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) caused by transmissible protease-resistant prions. Since the discovery of CWD in southern Wisconsin in 2001, more than 20,000 deer have been removed from a >2,500-km² disease eradication zone surrounding the three initial cases. Nearly all deer removed were tested for CWD infection and sex, age, and harvest location were recorded. Our analysis used data from a 310-km² core study area where disease prevalence was higher than surrounding areas. We found no difference in harvest rates between CWD infected and noninfected deer. Our results show that the probability of infection increased with age and that adult males were more likely to be infected than adult females. Six fawns tested positive for CWD, five fawns from the core study area, including the youngest (5 months) free-ranging cervid to test positive. The increase in male prevalence with age is nearly twice the increase found in females. We concluded that CWD is not randomly distributed among deer and that differential transmission among sex and age classes is likely driving the observed patterns in disease prevalence. We discuss alternative hypotheses for CWD transmission and spread and, in addition, discuss several possible nonlinear relationships between prevalence and age. Understanding CWD transmission in free-ranging cervid populations will be essential to the development of strategies to manage this disease in areas where CWD is found, as well as for surveillance strategies in areas where CWD threatens to spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CWD (chronic wasting disease) has emerged as one of the most important diseases of cervids and continues to adversely affect farmed and wild cervid populations, despite control and preventive measures. This study aims to use the current scientific understanding of CWD transmission and knowledge of farmed cervid operations to conduct a qualitative risk assessment for CWD transmission to cervid farms and, applying this risk assessment, systematically describe the CWD transmission risks experienced by CWD-positive farmed cervid operations in Minnesota and Wisconsin. A systematic review of literature related to CWD transmission informed our criteria to stratify CWD transmission risks to cervid operations into high-risk low uncertainty, moderate-risk high uncertainty, and negligible-risk low uncertainty categories. Case data from 34 CWD-positive farmed cervid operations in Minnesota and Wisconsin from 2002 to January 2019 were categorized by transmission risks exposure and evaluated for trends. The majority of case farms recorded high transmission risks (56%), which were likely sources of CWD, but many (44%) had only moderate or negligible transmission risks, including most of the herds (62%) detected since 2012. The presence of CWD-positive cervid farms with only moderate or low CWD transmission risks necessitates further investigation of these risks to inform effective control measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategies to contain the spread of disease often are developed with incomplete knowledge of the possible outcomes but are intended to minimize the risks associated with delaying control. Culling of game species by government agencies is one approach to control disease in wild populations but is unpopular with hunters and wildlife enthusiasts, politically unpalatable, and erodes public support for agencies responsible for wildlife management. We addressed the functional differences between hunting and government culling programs for managing chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer by comparing prevalence over a 10-year period in Illinois and Wisconsin. When both Illinois and Wisconsin were actively culling from 2003 - 2007, there were no statistical differences between state CWD prevalence estimates. Wisconsin government culling concluded in 2007 and average prevalence over the next five years was 3.09 ± 1.13% with an average annual increase of 0.63%. During that same time period, Illinois continued government culling and there was no change in prevalence throughout Illinois. Despite its unpopularity among hunters, localized culling is a disease management strategy that can maintain low disease prevalence while minimizing impacts on recreational deer harvest., (Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)