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Objectives: The common seasonality of incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and viral respiratory infections has long been recognized, however, the extent to which this affects the association between the pathogens is unknown. We have analysed weekly surveillance data of IPD, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), using ambient temperature and hours of sunshine as measures of seasonality., Methods: Reported cases of influenza, IPD and RSV, were collected in England and Wales, from week 1 (January) 1996 to week 23 (June) 2009. The associations between IPD and respiratory viral infections were analysed using several statistical methods, including correlation coefficients and both additive and multiplicative regression models., Results: 6-7.5% of cases of IPD are attributable to influenza and 3-4% attributable to RSV. Correlation coefficients reported considerably stronger associations between IPD and the viral infections compared to regression models., Conclusions: A small but potentially important percentage of IPD may be attributable to influenza and RSV when adjusted for seasonality by temperature. Jointly these viral infections may lead to over 10% of IPD cases. Therefore, prevention of viral respiratory infections may offer some additional benefit in reducing invasive pneumococcal infections., (Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To describe the epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in England & Wales in the pre-conjugate vaccine era., Methods: We analysed reports of culture-confirmed IPD submitted to the national surveillance system between July 1996 and June 2006., Results: The incidence of IPD was 10 per 100,000 overall, and increased over time. The typical pattern of IPD by age was observed, with the highest incidence in young children and older adults. There was little change in IPD incidence in the elderly, despite the widespread use of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines since 2003. The distribution of serotypes changed over time; notably the proportion of cases caused by serotype 14 decreased, and the proportion due to serotype 1 increased. The incidence of meningitis was 0.6 per 100,000 overall, and as a proportion of all IPD cases was most common in children under 1 year of age (30%). Particular serotypes were significantly associated with a presentation of meningitis, after controlling for age and year, and the case:carrier ratio varied markedly by serotype., Conclusions: This paper provides a baseline for evaluating the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, introduced in September 2006. Ongoing high-quality laboratory-based surveillance of IPD in all age groups is essential., (2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The UK meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine program has successfully controlled serogroup C disease, due to high vaccine effectiveness and substantial herd immunity. However, children immunised at 2, 3 and 4 months of age receive only short-term direct protection and may be at risk of disease 15 months after vaccination. To investigate this we applied a mathematical model to predict the future epidemiology of serogroup C disease, with and without changes to the immunization schedule. Only a few cases of serogroup C disease were predicted to occur over the next few years because of persisting herd immunity, even without a change to the vaccine schedule. The inclusion of a booster dose is likely to improve the impact of the MCC program and reducing the number of doses in infancy will improve cost-effectiveness and create space in the schedule for the addition of other vaccines.

Background: The meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccination program has successfully reduced morbidity and mortality from serogroup C disease in England and Wales, owing to high short-term vaccine effectiveness and substantial herd immunity. The latter effect was not accounted for in the previous economic analysis of the MCC program., Methods: The authors applied a transmission dynamic model, which accounts for herd immunity, to reevaluate the cost-effectiveness of MCC vaccination. The direct and indirect benefits of the MCC vaccine strategy implemented in England and Wales were compared. The cost-effectiveness of alternative MCC vaccine strategies, including future changes to the current schedule, were evaluated., Results: The authors found that including herd immunity improved the average cost-effectiveness ratio in all cases, although the extent depended on the vaccine strategy considered. Incremental analysis showed that those strategies that offered 1 dose early in the 2nd year of life dominated strategies that offered 3 doses of vaccine in infancy and that catch-up vaccination up to the age of 18 years was also highly attractive. Furthermore, the authors analyzed the effect of future changes to the routine vaccine schedule and predicted that shifting the age at routine vaccination from 2, 3, and 4 months (3 doses) to 12 months (1 dose) resulted in a net gain in the total number of cases prevented with only a few extra cases occurring in children under 1 year of age. This program dominated the current strategy., Conclusions: Models that do not include the indirect effects of vaccination will underestimate the impact of MCC vaccination and may lead to distorted decision making.

Much interest has surrounded the use of conjugate vaccines in recent years, with the development of vaccines against disease caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus pneumoniae. These vaccines offer the potential for safe and effective disease control, but some questions remain, particularly regarding the duration and mechanisms of protection and the longer-term impact of vaccination on carriage. In this paper, the authors use data on immunization with serogroup C meningococcal conjugate vaccines in England and Wales to develop and apply a mathematical model to investigate the direct and indirect (herd immunity) effects of a conjugate vaccine program. A realistic, age-structured, dynamic model was developed and parameterized and was fitted to epidemiologic data from England and Wales. The effects of a range of vaccine strategies, including hypothetical scenarios, were investigated. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 1.36. Catch-up vaccination targeting teenagers generated substantial herd immunity and was important in controlling disease rapidly. The results were sensitive to changes in the assumptions regarding the method of vaccine action, particularly duration of protection and efficacy of vaccination against carriage acquisition. This model can be used to help predict the potential impact of vaccine strategies both in the United Kingdom and elsewhere.

Objective: To describe invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections in individuals aged 15 years or older in England and Wales between 1991 and 2003., Design: Prospective, laboratory based surveillance of invasive Hib infections and cross sectional seroprevalence study., Setting: England and Wales., Participants: Cases were confirmed by isolation of H influenzae from a normally sterile site, or from a non-sterile site in cases with a diagnosis of epiglottitis. Excess serum samples collected from English 30-39 year olds as part of a national serosurvey were identified for the years 1990, 1994, 1997, 2000, and 2002., Main Outcome Measures: The number of invasive Hib infections from 1991 to 2003. Population immunity to H influenzae type b in English adults was also measured., Results: After routine infant immunisation was introduced in October 1992, adult Hib infections decreased initially but then rose from a low in 1998 to reach prevaccine levels in 2003. An associated fall in median Hib antibody concentrations occurred, from 1.29 microg/ml (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.64) in 1991 to 0.70 microg/ml (0.57 to 0.89) in 1994 (P = 0.006), with no significant change observed thereafter., Conclusions: Although immunisation of infants resulted in an initial decline in Hib infections in adults, a resurgence in reported cases occurred in 2002-3. This rise was associated with an increase in cases in children and evidence of reduced immunity in older unimmunised cohorts. Childhood immunisation programmes may have unanticipated effects on the epidemiology of disease in older age groups, and surveillance strategies must be targeted at entire populations.

The incidence of invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) disease in the UK fell rapidly following the introduction of routine vaccination in 1992 and the implementation of a catch-up campaign in children under 4 years old in 1992-93. However, since 1999 the number of cases of Hib has been increasing, and in 2002 there were 134 cases in 0-4 year olds (266 in all ages). While still much less than the prevaccine burden of disease (over 800 cases a year in 0-4 year olds), this increase in incidence is worrying and has sparked a range of detailed investigations. In February 2003, the Department of Health announced a second catch-up campaign offering all children between 6 months and 4 years a further dose of Hib vaccine. The epidemiology of Hib disease in England and Wales between 1990 and 2002 is reviewed here to provide a context for this public health response.

Penicillin has been the mainstay of treatment for meningococcal disease. Isolates of Neisseria meningitidis that are less susceptible to penicillin have been reported in several countries and in recent years have become more common. The clinical significance of this reduced susceptibility has not been investigated on a large scale. Hence, N. meningitidis isolates from culture-confirmed cases of meningococcal disease in England and Wales, between 1993 and 2000, were routinely serogrouped, serotyped and tested for susceptibility to penicillin. These data were linked to death registrations and analysed retrospectively. The changing trends in susceptibility were described and multivariate logistic regression was used to examine associations between strain characteristics and fatal outcome. The frequency of N. meningitidis isolates less susceptible to penicillin increased from < 6% in 1993 to > 18% in 2000. In particular, isolates expressing serogroup C with serotype 2b and serogroup W135 had a higher frequency of reduced penicillin susceptibility (49% and 55%, respectively). There was no evidence of an association between fatal outcome and infection with a less penicillin-susceptible isolate. Fatal outcome was associated with serogroup and serotype, with the odds of death for cases infected with C:2a and B:2a strains three-fold higher when compared with the baseline. For this large dataset the serogroup and serotype of the infecting strain influenced mortality from meningococcal disease and may be markers for hypervirulence. No association was found between reduced penicillin susceptibility and fatal outcome, but the increasing frequency of isolates less susceptible to penicillin highlights the need for continued surveillance.

The UK was the first country to introduce meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccination. The vaccine was incorporated into the routine infant immunisation schedule and was offered to all under 18 year olds in a catch-up campaign. The vaccine has been well accepted in infants receiving routine vaccination, with coverage around 89%. Coverage in older children targeted in the catch-up campaign was above 85% up to the age of 14, and was lowest (43%) in 15-17 year olds not in education. The winter of 2000-01 was the first meningococcal season following the offer of the vaccination to all children and adolescents. The incidence of serogroup C disease in the targeted age groups fell by 80%, and the number of deaths in laboratory confirmed cases in 0-19 year olds decreased from 78 to 8 between 1998-99 and 2000-01. The incidence of serogroup B disease in all age groups was slightly higher in 2000-01 than previous years, and there was an increase in the incidence of serogroup C disease in those aged over 20 during the study period, leading to the extension of the vaccination campaign to 20-24 year olds.

In 1999 a new conjugate vaccine for serogroup C meningococcal disease was licensed for use in the UK. In order for an appropriate vaccination strategy to be developed the burden of serogroup C disease in England and Wales needed to be established. This was done using data from an enhanced surveillance scheme alongside routine laboratory reports and a total of 5,052 cases of serogroup C disease in England and Wales between 1993 and 1998 were estimated. Among these, an estimated 398 died and 1,767 were admitted to intensive care units (ITUs). The greatest burden of disease was in young children and teenagers. The current literature identified four studies reporting sequelae following serogroup C meningococcal disease. These provided estimates of sequelae in the range of 6.5% and 45% and presented some evidence of higher levels than occur following serogroup B meningococcal disease. This information was provided to the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation to inform policy to implement a serogroup C conjugate vaccination programme in the UK. The vaccination programme has since been justified by the dramatic reduction in serogroup C meningococcal cases.

Objectives: To assess the cost effectiveness of a meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccination campaign in 0-17 year olds., Design: Cost effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the healthcare provider., Setting: England and Wales., Main Outcome Measure: Cost per life year saved., Results: In 1998-9, immediately before the introduction of meningococcal C vaccination, the burden of serogroup C disease was considerable, with an estimated 1137 cases in people aged 0-17 years and at least 72 deaths. The vaccination campaign is estimated to have cost between 126m pound sterling ($180m, 207m) and 241 pound sterling 3m, 395m), depending on the price of the vaccine. Under base case assumptions the cost per life year saved from the vaccination campaign is estimated to be 6259 pound sterling. School based vaccination was more cost effective than general practice based vaccination because of lower delivery costs. Immunisation of infants aged under 1 year was the least cost effective component of the campaign because, although this maximises the life years gained, the three dose schedule required is more expensive than other methods of delivery. Estimates of the cost per life year saved were sensitive to assumptions on the future incidence of disease and the case fatality ratio., Conclusions: Meningococcal C vaccination is likely to be more cost effective in all age groups when the incidence of disease is high. It is also more cost effective when given to children aged 1-4 (by general practitioners) and to children and young people aged 5-17 years at school than when administered to infants under 12 months of age or young people aged 16-17 years who are not at school.