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Purpose: There is growing interest in the concept of 'deaths of despair' (DoD)—defined as deaths from three causes: suicide, drug poisoning, and alcohol-related conditions—as a more comprehensive indicator of the impact of psychological distress on mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the degree of commonality in trends and geographic patterning of deaths from these causes in England and Wales. Methods: WHO mortality data were used to calculate age-standardised, sex-specific temporal trends in DoD mortality and in mortality from suicide, drug poisonings, and alcohol-related conditions in England and Wales, 2001–2016. Three-year average crude rates were calculated for English local authorities for 2016–2018 and associations between rates were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation. Results: Between 2001 and 2016, the DoD mortality rate increased by 21·6% (males) and 16·9% (females). The increase was largely due to a rise in drug poisoning deaths, with limited tracking between trends in mortality by each cause. DoD mortality risk was highest in middle-aged people; there were rises in all age groups except 15–24 year old males and 65 + females. There were strong positive correlations (r = 0.66(males) and 0.60(females)) between local authority-area drug poisoning and alcohol-specific mortality rates in 2016–2018. Correlations of these outcomes with suicide were weaker (r = 0.29–0.54). Conclusions: DoD mortality is increasing in England and Wales but there is limited evidence of commonality in the epidemiology of cause-specific mortality from the component causes of DoD (suicide, drug poisoning and alcohol-related conditions), indicating the need for tailored prevention for each outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Longitudinal studies of patterns of healthcare contacts in those who die by suicide to identify those at risk are scarce.Aims: To examine type and timing of healthcare contacts in those who die by suicide.Method: A population-based electronic case-control study of all who died by suicide in Wales, 2001-2017, linking individuals' electronic healthcare records from general practices, emergency departments and hospitals. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios, adjusted for deprivation. We performed a retrospective continuous longitudinal analysis comparing cases' and controls' contacts with health services.Results: We matched 5130 cases with 25 650 controls (5 per case). A representative cohort of 1721 cases (8605 controls) were eligible for the fully linked analysis. In the week before their death, 31.4% of cases and 15.6% of controls contacted health services. The last point of contact was most commonly associated with mental health and most often occurred in general practices. In the month before their death, 16.6 and 13.0% of cases had an emergency department contact and a hospital admission respectively, compared with 5.5 and 4.2% of controls. At any week in the year before their death, cases were more likely to contact healthcare services than controls. Self-harm, mental health and substance misuse contacts were strongly linked with suicide risk, more so when they occurred in emergency departments or as emergency admissions.Conclusions: Help-seeking occurs in those at risk of suicide and escalates in the weeks before their death. There is an opportunity to identify and intervene through these contacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There are growing concerns about the mental health and risk of suicide amongst university students.Aim: To investigate trends in the incidence and characteristics of university student suicides in England & Wales for the academic years 2000/01 to 2016/17.Method: Record linkage between Office for National Statistics mortality data and Higher Education Statistics Agency data for England and Wales. Poisson regression and chi-squared tests were used to investigate secular trends and the characteristics of students dying by suicide.Results: There were 1330 student suicide deaths from 2000/01 to 2016/17; the annual incidence in 2015/16-2016/17 was 4.7 per 100,000 students. There was evidence of a rise in incidence since 2009/10 (incidence rate ratio per year 1.04 ((95%CI 1.00-1.07) p = 0.029). Incidence in 2012/13 to 2016/17 was less than half the rate in the general population of a similar age. Incidence was higher in males than females and amongst undergraduates vs. postgraduates. There was some evidence of a reduced risk amongst black compared to white students (RR 0.53 (95%CI 0.32-0.88). Incidence was highest in January and lowest during the summer holidays (July-September).Limitations: There was no age/sex or sociodemographic breakdown of the overall student population for 2000/01 to 2011/12.Conclusion: Rates of suicide are considerably lower amongst students than the general population. In keeping with trends in young people in the wider population, the incidence of student suicide has increased since 2009/10. To inform prevention, research is needed to understand reasons for the rise in suicide in young people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous analyses of adolescent suicides in England and Wales have focused on short time periods.Aims: To investigate trends in suicide and accidental deaths in adolescents between 1972 and 2011.Method: Time trend analysis of rates of suicides and deaths from accidental poisoning and hanging in 10- to 19-year-olds by age, gender and deprivation. Rate ratios were estimated for 1982-1991, 1992-2001 and 2002-2011 with 1972-1981 as comparator.Results: Suicide rates have remained stable in 10- to 14-year-olds, with strong evidence for a reduction in accidental deaths. In males aged 15-19, suicide rates peaked in 2001 before declining. Suicide by hanging is the most common method of suicide. Rates were higher in males and in 15- to 19-year-olds living in more deprived areas.Conclusions: Suicide rates in adolescents are at their lowest since the early 1970s with no clear evidence that changes in coroners' practices underlie this trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16-64 years old) for the period 2001-2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16-34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16-24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25-34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35-44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16-34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35-44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45-64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16-34 years, may have begun before the 2008 economic recession whilst for men aged 35-44 years old increased suicide rates mirrored recession related unemployment. This evidence suggests indicators of economic strain other than unemployment and redundancies, such as personal debt and house repossessions may contribute to increased suicide rates in younger-age men whilst for men aged 35-44 years old job loss and long-term unemployment is a key risk factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Suicide is one of the leading causes of premature mortality worldwide. Few studies have assessed long-term trends or sex differences in its incidence over time. We have investigated the age-, sex- and method-specific trends in suicide in England and Wales from 1861 to 2007.Methods Overall age-standardized suicide rates using the European Standard Population and age-, sex- and method-specific rates were calculated for ages ≥15 years from 1861 to 2007.Results Rates in males were consistently higher than females throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, although the male-to-female sex ratio fluctuated from 4 : 1 in the 1880s to 1.5 : 1 in the 1960s. Suicide rates increased in all age groups in the 1930s, coinciding with the Great Depression. The highest male rates (30.3 per 100 000) were recorded in 1905 and 1934 and have since been declining. Female rates peaked in the 1960s (11.8 per 100 000), declining afterwards. In both sexes the lowest recorded rates were in the 21st century. There was a rapid rise in the use of domestic gas as a method of suicide in both sexes following its introduction at the end of the 19th century. There was no evidence that this rise was accompanied by a decline in the use of other methods. Self-poisoning also increased in popularity from the 1860s (5% of suicides) to the 1990s (22% of suicides).Conclusions The epidemiology of suicide in England and Wales has changed markedly over the past 146 years. The rapid rise in gas suicide deaths in the 1920s highlights how quickly a new method of suicide can be established in a population when it is easily available. The increase in suicides during the Great Depression has implications in relation to the current economic crisis. Changes in the acceptability and lethality of various suicide methods may account for the large variations in sex ratios over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural suicide rates have been shown to be disproportionately high in several countries. This study compares suicide rates in Cornwall with the rest of England and Wales over a 90-year period (1911-2001). Age and sex standardised mortality ratios were calculated for suicide and undetermined death for Cornwall standardised to England and Wales. From 1911 until the start of the Second World War, suicide rates were lower in Cornwall than England and Wales. Since the 1960s suicide rates in Cornwall have risen significantly above England and Wales. We have shown that the suicide rate in a poor, rural area has increased disproportionately compared to England and Wales over the last 35 years. This change has occurred in both sexes. Prior to this period the suicide rate was lower or about the same as that in England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Gunshot suicides account for 2.5% of suicides in England and Wales. This amounts to more than 100 deaths per year. Information about such deaths may assist in the development of suicide prevention strategies. Method We have examined coroners' inquest records for all gunshot suicides between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2001 in 24 coroners' jurisdictions in England. Results Fifty-eight gunshot suicides were identified, including one homicide-suicide. Ninety-three per cent of cases were male. Sport or occupational usage was the main reason for owning the gun. Ten per cent were farmers or farm-workers. In 20% of cases the gun did not belong to the individual who used it for suicide. This was more likely in younger suicides. Seven (12.1 %) individuals used illegally owned handguns. Large amounts of alcohol had been consumed before the act in nine cases. Nearly three-quarters (72.9%) of individuals with diagnostic information had a probable diagnosis of depression. However, only 22.4% had ever had contact with psychiatric services. Two shotgun certificate holders were under the care of psychiatric services at the time of their death and two others had a history of previous self-harm. Conclusions Strategies to reduce the number of gunshot suicides need to focus on limiting access to guns. These include restricting access to guns by non-certificate holders and those who may be at increased risk of suicide, and holding regular gun amnesties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background:. There is growing evidence that areas characterised by high levels of social fragmentation have higher suicide rates. Previous ecological studies have focused on relatively large geographic areas and/or examined associations in all age groups combined. Methods:. Negative binominal regression was used to assess age- and sex-specific suicide rate ratios for a range of census-derived indicators of the social, health and economic characteristics of small areas (mean population aged ≥ 15: 4500) in England and Wales. Results:. Indicators of social fragmentation (e. g. proportion of people living alone or population mobility) were most consistently associated with suicide risk. For example, across quartiles of wards ranked according to increasing proportions of single-person households, age- and sex-adjusted suicide rate ratios were: 1.00, 1.05 (1.00, 1.11), 1.14 (1.08, 1.19) and 1.42 (1.36, 1.49). Associations were strongest in 15 to 44 and 45 to 64 year-olds. Associations with social fragmentation persisted after controlling for the effect of other area characteristics. Conclusions:. Targeted mental health promotion and social policy initiatives to reduce area-health inequalities in suicide might usefully focus on areas with high levels of social fragmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suicide rates amongst young people, particularly males, have increased in many industrialised countries since the 1960s. There is evidence from some countries that the steepest rises have occurred in rural areas. We have investigated whether similar geographical differences in trends in suicide exist in England and Wales by examining patterns of suicide between 1981 and 1998 in relation to rurality. We used two complementary population-based indices of rurality: (1) population density and (2) population potential (a measure of geographic remoteness from large concentrations of population). We used the electoral ward (n=9264, median population aged 15–44: 1829) as the unit of analysis. To assess whether social and economic factors underlie rural–urban differences in trends we used negative binomial regression models to investigate changes in suicide rates between the years for which detailed national census data were available (1981 and 1991). Over the years studied, the most unfavourable trends in suicide in 15–44-year olds generally occurred in areas remote from the main centres of population; this effect was most marked in 15–24-year-old females. Observed patterns were not explained by changes in age- and sex-specific unemployment, socio-economic deprivation or social fragmentation. The mental health of young adults or other factors influencing suicide risk may have deteriorated more in rural than urban areas in recent years. Explanations for these trends require further investigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The incidence of several cancers increases with height. Some studies report that leg length, a marker of prepubertal growth, is the component of height underlying these associations, but few prospective studies have investigated this issue. We examined height-cancer associations in a 21-yr follow-up of a cohort based on 2,512 men aged 45-59 living in the town of Caerphilly, South Wales, U.K., between 1979 and 1983. The men underwent a detailed examination, and 2,393 (95.3%) had measures of height and sitting height (from which leg length and trunk length were derived) recorded and were cancer-free at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations of height, leg length, and trunk length with overall and site-specific cancer incidence; 328 men developed cancer over the follow-up period. Associations with height were weak and did not reach conventional levels of statistical significance. In models controlling for age, socioeconomic position, smoking, and body mass index cancer incidence was weakly positively associated with increases in height; hazard ratio (HR, 95% confidence interval) per standard deviation (6cm) increase in height was 1.09(0.97, 121; P=0.14). Associations were somewhat stronger in relation to leg length (HR 1.09; (0.97-1.22) than trunk length (HR 1.05; 0.94-1.18). Height-cancer associations were strongest for lung cancer (HR 1.21; 0.96-1.51). This analysis provides limited support for the suggestion that leg length is the component of height underlying height-cancer associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Age- and gender-specific suicide rates in England and Wales have changed considerably since 1950.Aims: To assess whether cohort effects underlie some of these changes.Method: Graphical displays to assess age-period-cohort effects on suicide for the period 1950-1999.Results: Successive male birth cohorts born after 1940 carried with them, as they aged, a greater risk of suicide than their predecessors although this effect diminished for the 1975 and 1980 birth cohorts. There was less clear evidence of any increased risk of suicide in post-war female birth cohorts.Conclusions: Succeeding generations of males born in the post-war years have experienced increasing rates of suicide at all ages, an observation in keeping with patterns seen in other countries. If these trends continue into middle- and old-age they will lead to a great increase in overall male suicide rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Factors within the school environment may impact young people's mental health and wellbeing. The aim of this study was to understand the association between teacher and student mental health and wellbeing. Further, it seeked to identify possible explanations by examining whether the strength of any association is weakened once quality of teacher-student relationships, teacher presenteeism and absence are considered.Methods: Cross-sectional data were collected from 3216 year 8 (aged 12-13 years) students and from 1182 teachers in 25 secondary schools in England and Wales. The association between teacher wellbeing (measured by Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS)) with student wellbeing (WEMWBS) and with student psychological distress (Total Difficulties Score (TDS)) was assessed using Random Effects Mixed Models. Analyses were repeated using teacher depression (measured by Patient Health Questionnaire) as the explanatory variable.Results: Better teacher wellbeing was associated with i) better student wellbeing (standardised effect = 0·07, 95% CI = 0·02 to 0·12) and ii) lower student psychological distress (standardised effect = -0·10, 95% CI = -0·16 to -0·04). Teacher presenteeism and the quality of the teacher-student relationship appeared to be on the pathway of these relationships. Higher levels of teacher depressive symptoms were associated with poorer student wellbeing and psychological distress (standardised effect = -0·06, 95% CI = -0·11 to -0·01 & 0·09, 95% CI = 0·03 to 0·15). This association did not withstand adjustment for teacher presenteeism.Limitations: Cross sectional in design so unable to establish temporal associations.Conclusions: Associations were found between teacher wellbeing and student wellbeing and psychological distress. There were also an association between teacher depression and student wellbeing. Both may be partially explained by teacher presenteeism and quality of teacher-student relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author comments on a study which assesses the long term effect of Great Britain legislation introduced in September 1998 to restrict pack sizes of paracetamol on deaths from paracetamol poisoning and liver unit activity. The author highlights that the legislation to reduce pack sizes of paracetamol was followed by significant reductions in deaths due to paracetamol overdose. The author opines that considering the continuing toll of deaths further preventive measures should be sought.

The authors discuss a new study that examined the change in deaths attributed to paracetamol poisoning in England and Wales in the six years before and after a legislated reduction in the maximum pack size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Objective: To investigate changes in the range of suicide methods used in two time periods a century apart (1901–1907 and 2001–2007) in England and Wales. Method: Suicide mortality and population data were obtained for England and Wales from the ONS and used to calculate gender and method-specific mortality rates. Results: There have been striking changes in the methods of suicide used since the 1900s. Hanging was the most commonly used method during both time periods. However suicides involving drowning (22.5% of suicides in 1901–1907) and weapons (e.g. firearms and razors, 24.2% of suicides in 1901–1907) were rarely used in 2001–2007 (2.6% and 5.8% respectively). Although the use of poisons was popular in both time periods, the types of poisons used differed substantially over time. Household cleaning products and disinfectants accounted for almost half of poisoning suicides in the early 1900s whereas self-poisoning with medicines accounted for most poisoning suicides in 2001–2007. Limitations: There were changes in the coding of suicides over time. Additionally, deaths by drowning and poisoning are more difficult to confirm as suicides than those that occur due to hanging or the use of weapons. Conclusions: The changes in popularity of some suicide methods can be mainly attributed to changes in the physical availability (access) of these methods over time. Other methods which remain readily available have fallen out of fashion in recent times, suggesting a contributory role of other factors such as cognitive availability and personal preference/acceptability in influencing the choice of suicide method. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

There was a highly publicised cluster of at least ten suicides in South Wales, United Kingdom, in 2007–2008. We carried out a qualitative descriptive study using cross-case thematic analysis to investigate the experiences and narratives of eight individuals who lived in the area where the cluster occurred and who survived an episode of near-fatal self-harm at the time of the cluster. Interviews were conducted from 01.01.2015 to 31.12.2015. All interviewees denied that the other deaths in the area had affected their own suicidal behaviour. However, in other sections of the interviews they spoke about the cluster contributing to difficulties they were experiencing at the time, including damage to social relationships, feelings of loss and being out of control. When asked about support, the interviewees emphasized the importance of counselling, which they would have found helpful but in most cases did not receive, even in the case of close contacts of individuals who had died. The findings suggest that effective prevention messaging must be subtle, since those affected may not be explicitly aware of or acknowledge the imitative aspects of their behaviour. This could be related to stigma attached to suicidal behaviour in a cluster context. Lessons for prevention include changing the message from asking if people 'have been affected by' the suicide deaths to emphasising the preventability of suicide, and directly reaching out to individuals rather than relying on people to come forward. • Participants' state the cluster did not influence their behaviour. • Evidence of cluster-related stressors, normalisation and social integration effects. • Implications for prevention; people may be less likely to seek help until crisis. • Proactive interventions and carefully worded messaging/signposting to help needed. • Importance of support in hospital following self-harm was also emphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the rising concerns that the incidence of affective disorders and self-harm is rising among adolescents. It discusses that many factors have been associated with the increasing levels of distress reported by adolescents, including the financial crisis in 2008, social media, cyberbullying, increasing academic pressures, and broader concerns about job prospects, financial security, and global politics.

Background : To compare characteristics of individuals who self-harmed during a suicide cluster in South Wales (∼10 deaths between December 2007 and March 2008) with others who self-harmed prior to the cluster and to evaluate 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Aims : To compare characteristics of individuals who self-harmed during a suicide cluster in South Wales (∼10 deaths between December 2007 and March 2008) with others who self-harmed prior to the cluster and to evaluate 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Method : Using records from the hospital serving the catchment area of the suicide cluster, enhanced by national routinely collected linked data, we created the following two groups: individuals who self-harmed (a) during the suicide cluster and (b) 1 year before. We compared individuals' characteristics and performed logistic regression to compute odds ratios of 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Results : Individuals who self-harmed during the cluster were less likely to be hospitalized or have a mental health history than those who self-harmed prior to the cluster. No significant group differences were found for 10-year self-harm outcomes, but all-cause mortality was higher for males. Limitations : Sample size was small, and data were lacking on psychological and social proximity to individuals who died during the suicide cluster. Conclusion : Our findings highlight the importance of long-term healthcare follow-up of those who self-harm during a suicide cluster, particularly males.

Background: Up to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits., Methods and Findings: The analysis is based on official mortality statistics for Wales for 2000-2009 provided by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). Temporo-spatial analysis was performed using Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics with SaTScan v9.1 for suicide deaths aged 15 and over, with a sub-group analysis focussing on cases aged 15-34 years. These analyses were conducted for deaths coded by ONS as: (i) suicide or of undetermined intent (probable suicides) and (ii) for a combination of suicide, undetermined, and accidental poisoning and hanging (possible suicides). The temporo-spatial analysis did not identify any clusters of suicide or undetermined intent deaths (probable suicides). However, analysis of all deaths by suicide, undetermined intent, accidental poisoning and accidental hanging (possible suicides) identified a temporo-spatial cluster (p = 0.029) involving 10 deaths amongst 15-34 year olds centred on the County Borough of Bridgend for the period 27(th) December 2007 to 19(th) February 2008. Less than 1% of possible suicides in younger people in Wales in the ten year period were identified as being cluster-related., Conclusions: There was a possible suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend between December 2007 and February 2008. This cluster was smaller, shorter in duration, and predominantly later than the phenomenon that was reported in national and international print media. Further investigation of factors leading to the onset and termination of this series of deaths, in particular the role of the media, is required.

Background: The analgesic co-proxamol (paracetamol/dextropropoxyphene combination) has been widely involved in fatal poisoning. Concerns about its safety/effectiveness profile and widespread use for suicidal poisoning prompted its withdrawal in the UK in 2005, with partial withdrawal between 2005 and 2007, and full withdrawal in 2008. Our objective in this study was to assess the association between co-proxamol withdrawal and prescribing and deaths in England and Wales in 2005-2010 compared with 1998-2004, including estimation of possible substitution effects by other analgesics., Methods and Findings: We obtained prescribing data from the NHS Health and Social Care Information Centre (England) and Prescribing Services Partneriaeth Cydwasanaethau GIG Cymru (Wales), and mortality data from the Office for National Statistics. We carried out an interrupted time-series analysis of prescribing and deaths (suicide, open verdicts, accidental poisonings) involving single analgesics. The reduction in prescribing of co-proxamol following its withdrawal in 2005 was accompanied by increases in prescribing of several other analgesics (co-codamol, paracetamol, codeine, co-dydramol, tramadol, oxycodone, and morphine) during 2005-2010 compared with 1998-2004. These changes were associated with major reductions in deaths due to poisoning with co-proxamol receiving verdicts of suicide and undetermined cause of -21 deaths (95% CI -34 to -8) per quarter, equating to approximately 500 fewer suicide deaths (-61%) over the 6 years 2005-2010, and -25 deaths (95% CI -38 to -12) per quarter, equating to 600 fewer deaths (-62%) when accidental poisoning deaths were included. There was little observed change in deaths involving other analgesics, apart from an increase in oxycodone poisonings, but numbers were small. Limitations were that the study was based on deaths involving single drugs alone and changes in deaths involving prescribed morphine could not be assessed., Conclusions: During the 6 years following the withdrawal of co-proxamol in the UK, there was a major reduction in poisoning deaths involving this drug, without apparent significant increase in deaths involving other analgesics.

Background: The impact of newly emerging, popular suicide methods on overall rates of suicide has not previously been investigated systematically. Understanding these effects may have important implications for public health surveillance. We examine the emergence of three novel methods of suicide by gassing in the 20th and 21st centuries and determine the impact of emerging methods on overall suicide rates., Methods: We studied the epidemic rises in domestic coal gas (1919-1935, England and Wales), motor vehicle exhaust gas (1975-1992, England and Wales) and barbecue charcoal gas (1999-2006, Taiwan) suicide using Poisson and joinpoint regression models. Joinpoint regression uses contiguous linear segments and join points (points at which trends change) to describe trends in incidence., Results: Epidemic increases in the use of new methods of suicide were generally associated with rises in overall suicide rates of between 23% and 71%. The recent epidemic of barbecue charcoal suicides in Taiwan was associated with the largest rise in overall rates (40-50% annual rise), whereas the smallest rise was seen for car exhaust gassing in England and Wales (7% annual rise). Joinpoint analyses were only feasible for car exhaust and charcoal burning suicides; these suggested an impact of the emergence of car exhaust suicides on overall suicide rates in both sexes in England and Wales. However there was no statistical evidence of a change in the already increasing overall suicide trends when charcoal burning suicides emerged in Taiwan, possibly due to the concurrent economic recession., Conclusions: Rapid rises in the use of new sources of gas for suicide were generally associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Suicide prevention strategies should include strengthening local and national surveillance for early detection of novel suicide methods and implementation of effective media guidelines and other appropriate interventions to limit the spread of new methods.

Background: Self-poisoning is a common method of suicide and often involves ingestion of antidepressants. Information on the relative toxicity of antidepressants is therefore extremely important., Aims: To assess the relative toxicity of specific tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs), a serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor (SNRI), a noradrenergic and specific serotonergic antidepressant (NaSSA), and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)., Method: Observational study of prescriptions (UK), poisoning deaths involving single antidepressants receiving coroners' verdicts of suicide or undetermined intent (England and Wales) and non-fatal self-poisoning episodes presenting to six general hospitals (in Oxford, Manchester and Derby) between 2000 and 2006. Calculation of fatal toxicity index based on ratio of rates of deaths to prescriptions, and case fatality based on ratio of rates of deaths to non-fatal self-poisonings., Results: Fatal toxicity and case fatality indices provided very similar results (rho for relative ranking of indices 0.99). Case fatality rate ratios showed greater toxicity for TCAs (13.8, 95% CI 13.0-14.7) than the SNRI venlafaxine (2.5, 95% CI 2.0-3.1) and the NaSSA mirtazapine (1.9, 95% CI 1.1-2.9), both of which had greater toxicity than the SSRIs (0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.7). Within the TCAs, compared with amitriptyline both dosulepin (relative toxicity index 2.7) and doxepin (2.6) were more toxic. Within the SSRIs, citalopram had a higher case fatality than the other SSRIs (1.1, 95% CI 0.8-1.4 v. 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.4)., Conclusions: There are wide differences in toxicity not only between classes of antidepressants, but also within classes. The findings are relevant to prescribing decisions, especially in individuals at risk, and to regulatory policy.

Objective: To assess the effect of the UK Committee on Safety of Medicines' announcement in January 2005 of withdrawal of co-proxamol on analgesic prescribing and poisoning mortality., Design: Interrupted time series analysis for 1998-2007., Setting: England and Wales., Data Sources: Prescribing data from the prescription statistics department of the Information Centre for Health and Social Care (England) and the Prescribing Services Unit, Health Solutions Wales (Wales). Mortality data from the Office for National Statistics., Main Outcome Measures: Prescriptions. Deaths from drug poisoning (suicides, open verdicts, accidental poisonings) involving single analgesics., Results: A steep reduction in prescribing of co-proxamol occurred in the post-intervention period 2005-7, such that number of prescriptions fell by an average of 859 (95% confidence interval 653 to 1065) thousand per quarter, equating to an overall decrease of about 59%. Prescribing of some other analgesics (co-codamol, paracetamol, co-dydramol, and codeine) increased significantly during this time. These changes were associated with a major reduction in deaths involving co-proxamol compared with the expected number of deaths (an estimated 295 fewer suicides and 349 fewer deaths including accidental poisonings), but no statistical evidence for an increase in deaths involving either other analgesics or other drugs., Conclusions: Major changes in prescribing after the announcement of the withdrawal of co-proxamol have had a marked beneficial effect on poisoning mortality involving this drug, with little evidence of substitution of suicide method related to increased prescribing of other analgesics.

The incidence of suicide exhibits marked geographic variability; however, documentation of features in its spatial distribution, or the magnitude of differences, is limited. Standardised mortality ratios, commonly presented in maps, are calculated in each area independently and incorporate no information about heterogeneity or clustering. Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects for between-area and local variability in neighbouring areas were used to map age- and sex-specific estimates of rate ratios of suicide across wards in England and Wales. Differences were greater than expected due to random variation alone. Although the geography of suicide differed across age/sex groups, some common patterns emerged e.g. high rates in (a) central parts of cities and (b) remote and coastal areas. Some features were common to all, while others appeared male specific or specific to the younger age group. Suicide prevention strategies can be informed by an understanding and addressing the geography of suicide.

Objectives: To explore trends in suicide in young people to investigate the recent observation that after year on year rises in the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s, rates in young men are now declining., Design: Time trend analysis., Setting: England and Wales, 1968-2005. Population Men and women aged 15-34 years., Results: Since the 1990s, rates of suicide in young men have declined steadily and by 2005 they were at their lowest level for almost 30 years. This decline is partly because of a reduction in poisoning with car exhaust gas as an increased number of cars have catalytic converters; but there have been declines in suicides from all common methods, including hanging, suggesting a more pervasive effect. Other risk factors for suicide, such as unemployment and divorce, have also decreased. Possible recent reductions in alcohol use among young men and increases in prescribing of antidepressants do not seem to be temporally related to the decline in suicide., Conclusions: Suicide rates in young men have declined markedly in the past 10 years in England and Wales. Reductions in key risk factors for suicide, such as unemployment, might be contributing to lower rates.

Objective: To investigate the spatial patterning and possible contributors to the geographical distribution of suicide among 15-44- year-old men., Design: Small-area analysis and mapping of geo-coded 1988-94 suicide mortality data and 1991 census data using random-effects smoothing., Setting: 9265 electoral wards in England and Wales (mean population of men aged 15-44- years: about 1220)., Main Results: Two main patterns emerged: (a) in all of the 10 most densely populated cities studied, suicide showed a "bull's-eye" pattern with rates highest in the inner-city areas and, in some cases, low rates in the peripheries, and (b) suicide rates were high in coastal areas, particularly those in more remote regions. Possible indicators of social fragmentation, such as the proportion of single-person households in an area, were most strongly and consistently associated with rates of suicide in both urban and rural areas. Levels of unemployment and long-term illness accounted for some of the coastal patterning. Although characteristics of areas accounted for more than half of the observed variability, substantial between-area variability in rates remained unexplained., Conclusions: The area characteristics investigated here did not fully account for the higher suicide rates observed in the most rural or remote areas. Alongside social and economic aspects, rural life itself may have an independent effect on the risk of suicide. A greater understanding of local geographies of suicide, and particularly the possible interactions between characteristics of people and their environments, might assist the design of prevention strategies that target those areas (and their characteristics) where risk is concentrated.

Average paternal age in the UK is increasing. The public health implications of this trend have not been widely anticipated or debated. This commentary aims to contribute to such a debate. Accumulated chromosomal aberrations and mutations occurring during the maturation of male germ cells are thought to be responsible for the increased risk of certain conditions with older fathers. Growing evidence shows that the offspring of older fathers have reduced fertility and an increased risk of birth defects, some cancers, and schizophrenia. Adverse health outcomes should be weighed up against advantages for children born to older parents, mindful that these societal advantages are likely to change over time.

Study Objective: To investigate the association of having been breast fed with cardiovascular disease risk factors, incidence, and mortality., Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting: Caerphilly, South Wales., Participants: All men aged 45-59 years living in and around the study area. Of 2818 eligible men, 2512 (89%) were seen. Altogether 1580 men (63%) obtained details of how they had been fed in infancy (ever breast fed or only bottle fed) from their mother or a close female relative. A subset of 1062 subjects reported on whether bottle fed or the duration of breast feeding if breast fed., Main Results: Breast feeding was not associated with stature, blood pressure, insulin resistance, total cholesterol, or fibrinogen. In fully adjusted models (controlling for age, birth order, and social position in childhood and adulthood), breast feeding was associated with greater body mass index than bottle feeding (difference: 0.41 kg/m(2) (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.81). There was a positive association between breast feeding and coronary heart disease mortality (hazard ratio: 1.73; 1.17 to 2.55) and incidence (1.54; 1.17 to 2.04) (fully adjusted models). There was no evidence of a duration-response effect, which might be expected if an adverse effect of breast feeding was causal., Conclusion: These data provide little evidence of a protective influence of breast feeding on cardiovascular disease risk factors, incidence, or mortality. A possible adverse effect of breast feeding on coronary heart disease incidence was observed but may have a number of explanations, including selection and information bias. In view of these limitations, further long term studies with improved measures of infant feeding are required to confirm or refute these findings.

The prevalence of psychiatric morbidity appears to be lower in rural than urban areas. Using the Fourth National GP Morbidity Survey (1991-1992) we have compared patterns of GP consultation for mental illness by young people living in rural and urban areas to investigate whether patterns of morbidity are reflected in GP help-seeking. We investigated whether urban-rural differences were due to differences in the socio-economic characteristics of residents. The crude rate ratio for consultation for mental disorder in rural compared to urban males was 0.55 (95% Cl 0.47 to 0.65) and for females was 0.78 (0.71 to 0.86). After controlling for socioeconomic differences between rural and urban areas, consultation rates for mental illness were 30% (95% Cl 19% to 41%) lower in males and 16 per cent (8% to 24%) lower in females in rural compared to urban areas. These findings are in line with population surveys indicating that levels of mental illness are lower in rural compared to urban areas. Part of the difference economic characteristics of people living in these areas. Further studies are needed to investigate possible area effects on the prevalence of mental illness. reflects differences in the socio-

The health strategies of many nations include targets to reduce suicide rates. In several countries, because suicide rates are rising in young men but falling or unchanging in most other groups, achievement of target reductions might mask rises in potential years of life lost (PYLL). Analysis of routine mortality and census data for England and Wales, UK, shows that although age-standardised suicide rates fell by 18% (95% CI 15-21) between 1981 and 1998, the PYLL before age 65 years increased by 5% (4-6). National suicide reduction targets should focus on PYLL and overall suicide rates.

Suicide rates doubled in males aged <45 in England and Wales between 1950 and 1998, in contrast rates declined in older males and females of all ages. Explanations for these divergent trends are largely speculative, but social changes are likely to have played an important role. We undertook a time-series analysis using routinely available age- and sex-specific suicide, social, economic and health data, focussing on the two age groups in which trends have diverged most-25-34 and 60+ year olds. Between 1950 and 1998 there were unfavourable trends in many of the risk factors for suicide: rises in divorce, unemployment and substance misuse and declines in births and marriage. Whilst economic prosperity has increased, so too has income inequality. Trends in suicide risk factors were generally similar in both age-sex groups, although the rises in divorce and markers of substance misuse were most marked in 25-34 year olds and young males experienced the lowest rise in antidepressant prescribing. Statistical modelling indicates that no single factor can be identified as underlying recent trends. The factors most consistently associated with the rises in young male suicide are increases in divorce, declines in marriage and increases in income inequality. These changes have had little effect on suicide in young females. This may be because the drugs commonly used in overdose-their favoured method of suicide-have become less toxic or because they are less affected by the factors underlying the rise in male suicide. In older people declines in suicide were associated with increases in gross domestic product, the size of the female workforce, marriage and the prescribing of antidepressants. Recent population trends in suicide appear to be associated with by a range of social and health related factors. It is possible that some of the patterns observed are due to declining levels of social integration, but such effects do not appear to have adversely influenced patterns in older generations.