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This study of recorded crime trends in England & Wales spans three and a half years, that is, two covid pandemic years from March 2020 and 18 'post-pandemic' months following cessation of covid restrictions. Observed crime rates were compared to expected (based on 5-year ARIMA models) and the ambient population (using Community Mobility Reports). It finds that, In Year 1, observed rates diverged dramatically from expected, waxing and waning generally in line with the movement restrictions of three national lockdowns. In Year 2, movement restrictions loosened and observed crime rates moved towards but mostly remained far from expected. In post-pandemic Year 3, people's movement increased and observed crime rates continued towards expected. By mid-Year 4 many rates remained below expected levels, their mean monthly differences including: theft from person (− 22%); burglary (− 20%); vehicle crime (− 29%); violence & sexual offences (− 27%); robbery (− 16%) and; public order offences (− 21%). An exceptional increase in shoplifting achieved 20% above expected rates by August 2023. Methodological limitations and further research on shoplifting and other issues are discussed. The main conclusion is that crime trends generally followed ambient population movement and that enduring lifestyle changes in the post-pandemic period, notably increased work-from-home, account for continuing below-expected rates of many crime types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anti-social behaviour recorded by police more than doubled early in the coronavirus pandemic in England and Wales. This was a stark contrast to the steep falls in most types of recorded crime. Why was ASB so different? Was it changes in 'traditional' ASB such as noisy neighbours, or was it ASB records of breaches of COVID-19 regulations? Further, why did police-recorded ASB find much larger early-pandemic increases than the Telephone Crime Survey for England and Wales? This study uses two approaches to address the issues. The first is a survey of police forces, via Freedom of Information requests, to determine whether COVID-regulation breaches were recorded as ASB. The second is natural language processing (NLP) used to interrogate the text details of police ASB records. We find police recording practice varied greatly between areas. We conclude that the early-pandemic increases in recorded ASB were primarily due to breaches of COVID regulations but around half of these also involved traditional forms of ASB. We also suggest that the study offers proof of concept that NLP may have significant general potential to exploit untapped police text records in ways that inform policing and crime policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments around the world have enforced strict guidelines on social interaction and mobility to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Evidence has begun to emerge which suggests that such dramatic changes in people's routine activities have yielded similarly dramatic changes in criminal behavior. This study represents the first 'look back' on six months of the nationwide lockdown in England and Wales. Using open police-recorded crime trends, we provide a comparison between expected and observed crime rates for fourteen different offence categories between March and August, 2020. We find that most crime types experienced sharp, short-term declines during the first full month of lockdown. This was followed by a gradual resurgence as restrictions were relaxed. Major exceptions include anti-social behavior and drug crimes. Findings shed light on the opportunity structures for crime and the nuances of using police records to study crime during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to examine small area variation in crime trajectories during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales. While we know how police-recorded crime responded to lockdown policies at the 'macro' level, less is known about the extent to which these trends were experienced uniformly at localized spatial scales. Longitudinal k-means clustering is used to unpick local area variation in police notifiable offences across England and Wales. We describe the clusters identified in terms of their spatial patterning, opportunity structures and crime type profile. We find that in most small areas, crime remained fairly stable throughout the pandemic. Instead, a small number of meso-level areas contributed a disproportionately large amount to the macro-level trend. These were typically city centers with plentiful pre-pandemic crime opportunities, dominated by theft and shoplifting offences. Findings offer support for opportunity theories of crime and for a mobility theory of crime during the pandemic. We explore potential implications for policy, theory and further research. • Studies showing macro-level crime declines during the coronavirus pandemic have not tended to examine how this occurred at the local area level. • We find that crime in most small areas remained fairly stable but a small number of meso-level areas contributed disproportionately to the macro-level trend. • The small areas that changed most were city centers dominated by theft and shoplifting offences. • The findings support crime opportunity theories and the mobility theory of crime change during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]