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Lung transplantation is limited by a lack of suitable lung donors. In Australia, the national donation organisation (DonateLife) has taken a major role in optimising organ donor identification. However, the potential outside the DonateLife network hospitals remains uncertain. We aimed to create a prediction model for lung donation within the DonateLife network and estimate the untapped lung donors outside of the DonateLife network. We reviewed all deaths in the state of Victoria's intensive care units using a prospectively collected population-based intensive care unit database linked to organ donation records. A logistic regression model derived using patient-level data was developed to characterise the lung donors within DonateLife network hospitals. Consequently, we estimated the expected number of lung donors in Victorian hospitals outside the DonateLife network and compared the actual number. Between 2014 and 2018, 291 lung donations occurred from 8043 intensive care unit deaths in DonateLife hospitals, while only three lung donations occurred from 1373 ICU deaths in non-DonateLife hospitals. Age, sex, postoperative admission, sepsis, neurological disease, trauma, chronic respiratory disease, lung oxygenation and serum creatinine were factors independently associated with lung donation. A highly discriminatory prediction model with area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.91 was developed and accurately estimated the number of lung donors. Applying the model to non-DonateLife hospital data predicted only an additional five lung donors. This prediction model revealed few additional lung donor opportunities outside the DonateLife network, and the necessity of alternative and novel strategies for lung donation. A donor prediction model could provide a useful benchmarking tool to explore organ donation potential across different jurisdictions, hospitals and transplanting centres.

Background: Obtaining family consent to organ donation is a significant obstacle to improving further Australian deceased organ donation rates. Currently, neither the consent rates for donors eligible to donate after circulatory death, nor factors that influence decision to decline or consent to donation in general are known in Australia., Methods: This study at four university teaching hospitals in Melbourne, Victoria, examined consecutive patients where organ donation was discussed with the family, Results: A total of 123 cases were identified; the family consent rate was 52.8%, and 34.1% proceeded to donation. Consent to donation was related to potential donor factors such as country of birth, cultural background in Australia, a non-religious or Christian background and registration on the Australian Organ Donor Register. Family-related factors included being English speaking and having knowledge of the deceased's wishes about organ donation. Family of donation after circulatory death-eligible donors were less likely to consent to donation than the family of donation after brain death-eligible donors, although not reaching statistical significance. Among consented potential donors, those eligible for donation after brain death and with a shorter length of stay were more likely to proceed to donating organs for transplantation., Conclusion: Despite a small sample size, these findings describe current consent and donation rates and associated factors and may assist in improving conversations about organ donation., (© 2014 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.)