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A downscaling experiment linking a regional atmospheric model to local ecosystem and target species population dynamics models was conducted to evaluate the effects of IPCC climate change scenarios on a temperate coastal lagoon ecosystem, the lagoon of Venice (Italy), along with goods and services provided by this ecosystem. Our results indicate that the changes in water temperature and reduction in plankton productivity caused by the modification of seasonal precipitation patterns will affect habitat suitability for clam growth and aquaculture. Simulations show that aquaculture, which has substantial economic value, will suffer, and they highlight the need for management policies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, Extrapolation of these conclusions to other coastal systems might be particularly relevant for socio-economic systems in which clam farming is crucial for a self-sustaining economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]