1. Seasonality of COVID-19 incidence in the United States.
- Author
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Shamsa EH, Shamsa A, and Zhang K
- Subjects
- Humans, United States epidemiology, Incidence, Pandemics, Disease Outbreaks, Public Health, COVID-19 epidemiology
- Abstract
Background: The surges of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared to follow a repeating pattern of COVID-19 outbreaks regardless of social distancing, mask mandates, and vaccination campaigns., Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the seasonality of COVID-19 incidence in the United States of America (USA), and to delineate the dominant frequencies of the periodic patterns of the disease., Methods: We characterized periodicity in COVID-19 incidences over the first three full seasonal years (March 2020 to March 2023) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We utilized a spectral analysis approach to find the naturally occurring dominant frequencies of oscillation in the incidence data using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm., Results: Our study revealed four dominant peaks in the periodogram: the two most dominant peaks show a period of oscillation of 366 days and 146.4 days, while two smaller peaks indicate periods of 183 days and 122 days. The period of 366 days indicates that there is a single COVID-19 outbreak that occurs approximately once every year, which correlates with the dominant outbreak in the early/mid-winter months. The period of 146.4 days indicates approximately 3 peaks per year and matches well with each of the 3 annual outbreaks per year., Conclusion: Our study revealed the predictable seasonality of COVID-19 outbreaks, which will guide public health preventative efforts to control future outbreaks. However, the methods used in this study cannot predict the amplitudes of the incidences in each outbreak: a multifactorial problem that involves complex environmental, social, and viral strain variables., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. KZ declared that he was an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (Copyright © 2023 Shamsa, Shamsa and Zhang.)
- Published
- 2023
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