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Inflation expectations of firms affect their micro-decision-making behaviors and therefore impact the macro-economy. Thus, a deep understanding of how firms form inflation expectations benefits the achievement of central bank's policy objectives on macro-economic sustainability and development. In this paper, we focus on the inflation expectations of firms from surveys. Specifically, the Naïve Expectation, Adaptive Expectation, Rational Expectation, VAR, and Heterogeneous Static Expectation formation models are adopted to test the models being used by firms to form inflation expectations. Empirically, this paper reveals the heterogeneity between the formation mechanisms of households and firms. Then, empirical results reject the rational expectation hypothesis of firms' inflation expectations, which means that they are not perfectly rational. Finally, we find that the inflation perception is a non-negligible factor in forming firms' inflation expectations. Therefore, central banks' monetary policies that aiming to formulate firms' inflation perceptions can be a useful tool in regulating their inflation expectations, which are expected to benefit the stability of the macro-economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: In the fall of 2019, several states in the United States passed emergency bans on the sale of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), in response to an outbreak of illnesses strongly linked to tetrahydrocannabinol vaping products that received national news coverage. Given that ENDS are potential alternative nicotine products for adult smokers, banning ENDS may have unintended consequences. This study provides evidence of an association between state-level ENDS bans and cigarette sales.Methods: We used difference-in-differences and generalized synthetic control methods to estimate the impacts of the emergency ENDS bans on cigarette sales by comparing treatment states that passed ENDS bans in fall 2019 (Massachusetts, Washington, and Rhode Island), halted states that revoked the announced ENDS bans, and control states.Results: Our results show that cigarette sales in ban states were higher than would have been observed otherwise in the post-ban period. A full ban on ENDS was associated with increased cigarette sales of 7.5% in Massachusetts (P < .01); banning non-tobacco flavored ENDS was associated with 4.6% (P < .1) higher-than-expected cigarette sales. We did not detect statistically significant impacts in halted states, and placebo tests, which randomly assigned control states as treatments, showed no difference in observed cigarette sales in the same period.Conclusions: This study provides evidence that banning ENDS is associated with increased cigarette sales. Future research is needed to determine the long-term impact of these policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces wavelet analysis as a tool for investigating the anchoring of inflation expectations in the United States. We show that the anchoring of inflation expectations varies for different groups of economic agents and changes across time and frequency. For consumers, we confirm significant lead-lag relationships between short- and long-term inflation expectations at medium frequencies of one to four years of scale, thus suggesting that short-term inflation expectations had fed into long-term inflation expectations over the crisis period. However, no such relationship is found for professional forecasters. These results indicate that long-term inflation expectations were de-anchored during the crisis period for consumers but not for professional forecasters. Although consumers' long-term inflation expectations have been re-anchored since 2014 at medium frequencies, we find signs of de-anchoring at higher time scales of approximately eight years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the late 1990s, particularly since the global financial crisis, the core inflation of main developed economies’ has been persistently below target. The factors hindering the achievement of inflation targets are nothing more than commodity price, oil supply, weakness of aggregate demand, and various other factors. In addition, technology and globalization have also played a significant role. This paper uses an extended hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model to quantify the contribution of technology and globalization variables to inflation in the United States (U.S.). The analysis suggests that technology and globalization well explain the low inflation dynamics in the U.S., as the impact of globalization on domestic inflation has been weakening over the past 20 years or so, while the impact of technology on inflation has been increasing. At present, technology exerts a greater role than globalization on low-inflation in the U.S.. This raises a different perspective for understanding the phenomenon of low inflation in the U.S. and other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the causal relationship between the actual and expected inflation in the U.S., using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling-window estimation test to illustrate the self-fulfilment of inflation expectations. The full-sample result indicates that there is a bidirectional causality between the actual and expected inflation, showing the possibility of self-fulfilment of inflation expectations which illustrates that inflation is driven by inflation expectation. However, considering structural changes in two series, we find that the short-run causal nexus between the actual and expected inflation using full-sample data are fraudulent. By adopting a time-varying rolling-window approach to revisiting the dynamic causal relationships, this article identifies that the actual inflation has both positive and negative impacts on the expected inflation in distinct sub-periods. Nevertheless, inflation expectation exerts only negative effects on the actual inflation. The results point out that the self-fulfilment of inflation expectations does not exist. Given the bidirectional nexus between the actual and expected inflation, keeping a low and stable inflation is critical to price stability and anchoring of inflation expectation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Objective: To examine the association of prenatal exposure to bisphenol A and select common phthalates with infant neurobehavior measured at 5weeks. Methods: We compared the concentration of maternal urinary metabolites of bisphenol A and phthalates at two distinct time points in pregnancy (16w, 26w) with scores on the NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scale (NNNS) at 5weeks of age in a cohort of 350 mother/infant pairs. Results: Prenatal exposure to BPA was not significantly associated with neurobehavioral outcomes at 5weeks. Significant associations between prenatal exposure to measured phthalates and infant neurobehavioral outcomes differed by type of phthalate and were only seen with exposure measured at 26weeks. Higher total di-butyl phthalate (DBP) metabolites at 26w were associated with improved behavioral organization evidenced by decreased arousal (p=.04), increased self-regulation (p=.052), and decreased handling (p=.02). In males, higher total di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) metabolites at 26w were associated with more nonoptimal reflexes (p=.02). Conclusion: The association between prenatal phthalate exposure and infant neurobehavior differed by type of phthalate and was evident only with exposure measured at 26w. Prenatal exposure to DBP was associated with improved behavioral organization in 5-week-old infants. Prenatal exposure to DEHP was associated with nonoptimal reflexes in male infants. There was no evidence of an association between prenatal BPA exposure and infant neurobehavior. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A low-carbon transition requires changes in the energy structure that may affect the financial system. However, little theoretical and empirical evidence has been produced regarding the interaction between different subsystems. This article presents empirical evidence regarding the relationship between energy and financial systems using the wavelet analysis which considers possible cyclical properties that change over time. The wavelet coherence coefficients based on the data for the United States suggest that the electricity price is closely related to shares of different energy-powered electricity production, but has weak relationships with the interbank connectivity and bank failures. The phase differences show that increases in nuclear energy-powered electricity generation reduce the electricity price at less than one and a half years of scale, but rise it at approximately three years of scale. However, different energy shares have little effect on the interbank connectivity. An increase in renewable energy in producing electricity may reduce the number of failed banks, whereas an increase in nuclear energy has an opposite effect. Therefore, the energy transition affects the financial system and excessively fast investment in nuclear energy may threat the bank sector and thus endanger the financial system. The Nuclear Renaissance program should be treated with caution. • Nexus between energy and financial systems changes over time and across frequencies. • Significant relationships between electricity prices and shares of energy exist. • Increases in renewable-powered electricity reduce bank failures at certain scales. • Increases in nuclear-powered electricity lead to more failed banks. • The energy system has no significant leading effect on the interbank connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Latinx populations have experienced disproportionately high case rates of COVID-19 across the USA. Latinx communities in non-traditional migration areas may experience greater baseline day-to-day challenges such as a lack of resources for immigrants and insufficient language services. These challenges may be exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic., Objective: This article describes the results of an initial community health needs assessment to better understand the prevention and care of COVID-19 infection in the Cincinnati Latinx community., Methods: We used convergent mixed methods to examine barriers and facilitators to COVID-19 prevention and care for those with infection., Results: Latinx adults ≥ 18 years old completed 255 quantitative surveys and 17 qualitative interviews. Overarching mixed methods domains included knowledge, prevention, work, challenges, and treatment. Quantitative results largely reinforced qualitative results (confirmation). Certain quantitative and qualitative results, however, diverged and expanded insights related to caring for COVID-19 infection among Latinx adults (expansion). There were infrequent contradictions between quantitative and qualitative findings (discordance). Primary barriers for the Latinx community during the COVID-19 pandemic included insecurities in food, jobs, housing, and immigration. Key facilitators included having trusted messengers of health-related information., Conclusion: Public health interventions should be centered on community partnerships and the use of trusted messengers. Wraparound services (including resources for immigrants) are essential public health services. Close partnership with employers is essential as lack of sick leave and mask supplies were more frequent barriers than knowledge. These findings emerged from experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic but likely generalize to future public health crises., (© 2022. W. Montague Cobb-NMA Health Institute.)

This study examines the relationship between religious and spiritual (R/S) struggle and religiosity with depression and anxiety in adolescents admitted to inpatient psychiatric units of a pediatric hospital in the Midwest of the United States. We administered four self-reported scales to 71 adolescents (ages 13-17) to assess religiosity, R/S struggle, depression, and anxiety. The prevalence of R/S struggle among this population was high (88.73%). Significant associations were found between R/S struggle and depression and anxiety, linking greater R/S struggles with more severe depression or anxiety. However, no significant associations between religiosity and depression and anxiety were noted. By examining the prevalence of R/S struggle among this population and its relationship to depression and anxiety, this study contributes to the expanding research on the impact of religion and spirituality on the psychological well-being of adolescents.

Objectives: In this study, we prospectively assessed changes in smoking a year after US adults' first-time purchase of a JUUL Starter Kit (JSK). Methods: Descriptive analyses assessed transitions in smoking status at 12 months among adult (age ≥21) JSK purchasers providing baseline and 12-month follow-up data (N = 27,164 [49.0% of baseline]), stratified by baseline smoking status. Baseline regular use of other ENDS was also considered. Results: Purchasers included baseline past 30-day smokers (65.2%), former smokers (12.0%), and never smokers (9.7%); over 90% were ever-smokers. One year later, the majority (58%) of those smoking at baseline reported no longer smoking. Former smokers or never smokers who were smoking at 12 months represented less than 2% of respondents. Former and current smokers who were regularly using other ENDS at baseline were less likely to report smoking at 12 months. Conclusions: Past 30-day smoking prevalence in a large longitudinal study of first-time JSK purchasers fell by more than half over 12 months. Analyzing the sample composition at purchase and transitions within subgroups defined by smoking status allows for a detailed understanding to help inform assessments of the population health impact of ENDS.

Objectives: Our objective was to improve understanding of the population health impact of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) availability in the US via computational modeling. Methods: We present an agent-based population health model (PHM) that simulates annual smoking, ENDS use, and associated mortality for individual agents representing the US population, both adults and youth, between 2000 and 2100. Model transitions were derived from key population surveys and a large longitudinal study of JUUL purchasers. The mortality impact of ENDS is modeled as excess risk relative to smoking. Outcomes are compared between a cigarettes-only Base Case and a Modified Case where ENDS are introduced in 2010. Model validation demonstrates that the PHM simulates population-level behavior and outcomes realistically. Results: The availability of ENDS in the US is projected to reduce smoking and prevent 2.5 million premature deaths by 2100 in the Modified Case. Sensitivity analyses show that a significant population health benefit occurs under all plausible scenarios. Conclusions: Our results suggest the availability of ENDS is likely to result in a significant health benefit to the US population as a whole, after accounting for both beneficial and harmful uses.

We examined the association between prenatal fish intake and child autism-related traits according to Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) and cognitive development scores in two US prospective pregnancy cohorts. In adjusted linear regression analyses, higher maternal fish intake in the second half of pregnancy was associated with increased child autism traits (higher raw SRS scores; ß = 5.60, 95%CI 1.76, 12.97). Differences by fish type were suggested; shellfish and large fish species were associated with increases, and salmon with decreases, in child SRS scores. Clear patterns with cognitive scores in the two cohorts were not observed. Future work should further evaluate potential critical windows of prenatal fish intake, and the role of different fish types in association with child autism-related outcomes.

Importance: Childhood lead exposure is associated with neurobehavioral deficits. The effect of a residential lead hazard intervention on blood lead concentrations and neurobehavioral development remains unknown., Objective: To determine whether a comprehensive residential lead-exposure reduction intervention completed during pregnancy could decrease residential dust lead loadings, prevent elevated blood lead concentrations, and improve childhood neurobehavioral outcomes., Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal, community-based randomized clinical trial of pregnant women and their children, the Health Outcomes and Measures of the Environment (HOME) Study, was conducted between March 1, 2003, and January 31, 2006. Pregnant women attending 1 of 9 prenatal care clinics affiliated with 3 hospitals in the Cincinnati, Ohio, metropolitan area were recruited. Of the 1263 eligible women, 468 (37.0%) agreed to participate and 355 women (75.8%) were randomized in this intention-to-treat analysis. Participants were randomly assigned to receive 1 of 2 interventions designed to reduce residential lead or injury hazards. Follow-up on children took place at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 8 years of age. Data analysis was performed from September 2, 2017, to May 6, 2018., Main Outcomes and Measures: Residential dust lead loadings were measured at baseline and when children were 1 and 2 years of age. At 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 8 years of age, the children's blood lead concentrations as well as behavior, cognition, and executive functions were assessed., Results: Of the 355 women randomized, 174 (49.0%) were assigned to the intervention group (mean [SD] age at delivery, 30.1 (5.5) years; 119 [68.3%] self-identified as non-Hispanic white) and 181 (50.9%) to the control group (mean [SD] age at delivery, 29.2 [5.7] years; 123 [67.9%] self-identified as non-Hispanic white). The intervention reduced the dust lead loadings for the floor (24%; 95% CI, -43% to 1%), windowsill (40%; 95% CI, -60% to -11%), and window trough (47%; 95% CI, -68% to -10%) surfaces. The intervention did not statistically significantly reduce childhood blood lead concentrations (-6%; 95% CI, -17% to 6%; P = .29). Neurobehavioral test scores were not statistically different between children in the intervention group than those in the control group except for a reduction in anxiety scores in the intervention group (β = -1.6; 95% CI, -3.2 to -0.1; P = .04)., Conclusions and Relevance: Residential lead exposures, as well as blood lead concentrations in non-Hispanic black children, were reduced through a comprehensive lead-hazard intervention without elevating the lead body burden. However, this decrease did not result in substantive neurobehavioral improvements in children., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00129324.