1. Differential impact of test performance characteristics on burden-to-benefit tradeoffs for blood-based colorectal cancer screening: A microsimulation analysis.
- Author
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Piscitello, Andrew, Carroll, Lauren N, Fransen, Signe, Wilson, Ben, Chandra, Tarun, Meester, Reinier, and Putcha, Girish
- Subjects
HEALTH services accessibility ,EARLY detection of cancer ,SIMULATION methods in education ,MEDICAL care costs ,ADENOMA ,COLORECTAL cancer ,COST benefit analysis ,COMPARATIVE studies ,DESCRIPTIVE statistics ,BLOOD testing ,SENSITIVITY & specificity (Statistics) ,ECONOMIC aspects of diseases - Abstract
Objectives: To inform the development and evaluation of new blood-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests satisfying minimum United States (US) coverage criteria, we estimated the impact of the different test performance characteristics on long-term testing benefits and burdens. Methods: A novel CRC-Microsimulation of Adenoma Progression and Screening (CRC-MAPS) model was developed, validated, then used to assess different screening tests for CRC. We compared multiple, hypothetical blood-based CRC screening tests satisfying minimum coverage criteria of 74% CRC sensitivity and 90% specificity, to measure how changes in a test's CRC sensitivity, specificity, and adenoma sensitivity (sizes 1–5 mm, 6–9 mm, ≥10 mm) affect total number of colonoscopies (COL), CRC incidence reduction (IR), CRC mortality reduction (MR), and burden-to-benefit ratios (incremental COLs per percentage-point increase in IR or MR). Results: A blood test meeting minimum US coverage criteria for performance characteristics resulted in 1576 lifetime COLs per 1000 individuals, 46.7% IR and 59.2% MR compared to no screening. Tests with increased CRC sensitivity of 99% (+ 25%) vs. increased ≥10 mm adenoma sensitivity of 13.6% (+ 3.6%) both yielded the same MR, 62.7%. Test benefits improved the most with increases in all-size adenoma sensitivity, then size-specific adenoma sensitivities, then specificity and CRC sensitivity, while increases in specificity or ≥10 mm adenoma sensitivity resulted in the most favorable burden-to-benefit tradeoffs (ratios <11.5). Conclusions: Burden-to-benefit ratios for blood-based CRC screening tests differ by performance characteristic, with the most favorable tradeoffs resulting from improvements in specificity and ≥10 mm adenoma sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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