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The growing tendency toward non-compliance with international obligations to refugees requires UNHCR to make contingency plans for asylum denials. Making such plans calls for tools, such as game theory and confrontation analysis, that link non-compliance in refugee asylum with the configuration of interests for asylum and donor countries in a potential crisis. We illustrate such tools in a case study of Afghan refugees in Pakistan in 1997-2001, which generated asylum denials by Pakistan ranging from brief border closings to threats of mass refoulernent, linked to the withholding of assistance by the United States and other donors. We also consider the prospects for using these tools to inform contingency planning for an impending crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explores the role of Periodicals Analysis Database (PAD) on serials cancellation at Wichita State University Libraries in Kansas. Factors influencing serial pricing crisis; Consideration of PAD as the causative factor of the pricing crisis; Analysis of serials costs or savings and publisher prices.

The article focuses on the development of fiscal policy for monetary policy and the banking system. Fiscal policy could perhaps be regarded from the beginning as a substitute for central bank policy. The analysis of income-creating expenditures has been the chief preoccupation of fiscal theory. Since the first World War, revolutionary changes have occurred in American banking. The greatest change which has occurred in banking since the Reserve System was established has been in the growth of bank investments. This growth began in the first World War when the banks, with the aid of the new Reserve System, bought government securities for their own account and made loans to finance purchases by the public. As bank investments have increased, long-term interest rates have shown increased sensitivity to changes in bank reserves, and the emphasis in monetary theory has shifted to the need for controlling the long-term rates, as more effective for the control of investment, income, and employment than control merely of the short-term rates.

The article examines the economic consequences of deficit financing in the U.S. The budget deficit problem was the automatic result of the 1929 depression. As the national income decline by half from 1929 to 1932, the federal revenue likewise declined by one, while expenditures remain unchanged. Majority of government officials undoubtedly favored deficit spending as a deliberate policy for recovery before any such policy publicly emerged. In the early part of the administration of Franklin D. Roosevelt, there was little evidence that public spending was to be a major policy of recovery.

This article presents information on the Banking Act of 1935. Title II of the Banking Act of 1935 is the part which consists of the new amendments to the Federal Reserve Act. The violence of feeling was, quite out of proportion to the actual content of the proposed legislation. There was a disposition on both sides to regard the bill as more revolutionary than it really was. On the one hand, some of the more enthusiastic believers in quantitative monetary control as a means of achieving economic stability were inclined to regard this legislation as marking a complete break with the past behavior and the past philosophy of the reserve system. On the other hand, the critics were inclined to read into it fears that arose not so much from its actual content as from their own hostility to previous new deal legislation and experimentation, particularly in the monetary sphere.

The sixty-eighth annual business meeting of the American Economic Association was called to order in the hotel Commodore, New York. at 5:10 p.m. by president John P. Black. The minutes of the business meeting of December 30, 1954, were approved, actions of the 1955 executive committee ratified, and the reports of the officers and committees accepted. All minutes and reports are published in the "Proceedings." High lights of the year's activities were described by secretary-treasurer James Washington Bell, who also presented an account of the financial operations, investment holdings, and the present condition of the Association's finances. He called attention to the narrow balance between operating income and expenses and indicated the identity of the profit taken on sale of securities and the amount of the year's surplus income. Despite increased expenses, it still appears possible to maintain a balanced budget with $6.00 dues. The managing editor of the journal "American Economic Review," Bernard F. Haley, reviewed the operations of the Review office and the work of the editorial board. This report is presented in full in the "Proceedings."

A great change appears to be under way in the relation of industrial production and trade to foods and raw materials. For perhaps three-quarters of a century, the problem had been whether the industrial countries could absorb the food and raw materials which they had been instrumental in developing in other countries, on terms of trade tolerable to the latter. Now the imbalance appears to be swinging the other way. Owing partly to the expansion of industrial output in Europe under the Marshall Plan and even more to the U.S. absorption of raw materials, in the consumer durable goods industries as well as in the capital goods industries, there is a general world problem of availability of supplies. Again, this problem has been much accentuated by the rearmament program. But it was becoming apparent even before Korea. World industrial production since 1938 has grown by some 50 per cent, while the output of food and raw materials has at most increased by 10 per cent. Some experts have estimated that, apart from the U.S., the world's food production is now lower than before the war. If few items are taken out, such as petroleum and aluminum, this may well be true also of the raw materials.

The article presents some issues related to international trade and policy. Equilibrium analysis introduces a bias toward calling maladjustments short run. A movement of capital and labor from one industry to another frequently requires a protraded period of time. Assuming full employment a high degree of internal adjustability to external changes, constant costs and given amounts of resources in the trading countries, it follows that changes in demand among trading countries for each other's goods could have only mild results. There are limits of productivity and real income beyond which international trade adjustment through the play of internal forces cannot, in the general interest, be accepted. A war effects the long run and short run economic development. Western Great Britain created the modern world and was in turn remade by it. The internal mobility on which traditional theory is based was itself a product of external trade, including pre-eminently the external movement of capital, labor, and entrepreneurship to produce the goods which comprised the trade. The over-all result has been a changed conception of how world trade stability must be achieved. Instead of adjustment through internal change, there has developed the view that external stability must depend on maintenance of internal stability at full employment in the leading countries, and particularly in the United States.

The article presents information on a research regarding foreign trade of Latin America during the World War I. Foreign exchange fluctuations have occurred in response to commercial and financial exchanges in Latin American countries during the war. Many countries started credit exchange conventions with a purpose of exchange stabilization without resorting to gold shipments. Argentina made such an arrangement with the U.S. Most of the Latin American nations including Brazil showed a low level of exchange rate during the war than the levels of pre-war years.

This article provides an analysis of the nature of the Welsh ethno-linguistic community in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The study considers culture maintenance and suggests that Welsh ethnic integrity was undermined by a variety of forces, primarily: occupational diversity, widespread bilingualism, high levels of exogamy, and the cessation of immigration from Wales. The article further posits that assimilation was aided by the desire of the Welsh to join mainstream American society and the generally accepted perception that they were, indeed, ideal immigrants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a reprint from the "Commercial and Financial Chronicle." The article discusses the U.S. national debt and its impact on the economy, particularly the work of the federal government, and its impact on production, employment, income, credit volume, bank deposits, and other areas of American industry. The author presents two proposals, legislation creating non-marketable securities for bank ownership or payment of outstanding bank-held obligations with Federal Reserve credits.

Construction of the first transcontinental railroad, financed with large federal subsidies, is an important event in American history. Were the subsidies necessary to induce private investment in the railroad? The ex-ante investment decision examined uses contemporary reports and a simulation model to show that investors expected the railroad to be profitable. Evidence also shows that the railroad created political conflicts in Congress between the North and South. The secession removed the South as a disputant in Congress, reducing short-term political conflict but not long-term conflict. Subsidies reduced political risk, rather than transport market failure, and encouraged private investment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The 1994 Cuban refugee crisis is modeled as a prisoners' dilemma game for Cuba and the United States. A threat power version of the theory of moves yields a cooperative outcome in the game, sustained by mutual threats that deter defections by each player, which is consistent with moves made by the players. After the countries implemented deterrent threats, they agreed that Cuba would patrol its borders and the United States would admit 20,000 Cubans each year. We show that the analysis, suitably adapted, also illuminates strategic choices in the 1965 and 1980 Cuban refugee crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on monetary policy rules. The conventional paradigm for the conduct of monetary policy calls for the monetary authority to attain its objectives of a low and stable rate of inflation and full employment by adjusting its short-term interest rate instrument in the U.S. In principle, when aggregate demand and employment fall short of the economy's natural levels of output and employment, or when other deflationary concerns appear on the horizon, the central bank should ease monetary policy by bringing real interest rates below the economy's natural rate of interest for some time. Conversely, the central bank should respond to inflationary concerns by adjusting interest rates upward so as to bring real interest rates above the natural rate. In this setting, the natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation, the natural rate of interest is the real interest rate consistent with unemployment being at its natural rate, and therefore with stable inflation. In carrying out this strategy in practice, the policymaker would ideally have accurate, quantitative, contemporaneous readings of the natural rate of interest and the natural rate of unemployment.

The article presents information related to the American Economic Association. John H. Williams of Harvard University has been appointed the chairman of the American Economic Association for the year 1953. Some members of the association who have retired from their profession include Julius B. Bearnson, professor of economics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah; Orval Bennett, professor of business and government at Washington University, St. Louis; Pembroke H. Brown, professor of economics, University of Illinois; and E. C. Stone, professor at University of Pittsburgh. A visual economic laboratory has been established at Columbia University in November 1951. The laboratory had been financed for a year by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and trustees of the Foundation have made an additional grant to cover the budget of the laboratory until November 1953. The Social Science Research Council has announced a new program of stipends and fellowships designed to identify and assist able students at an early stage of their education.

This article presents developments related to economic societies and economists in the U.S. The annual meeting of the American Economic Association will be held in Boston, Massachusetts, on December 27-29, 1951. Arrangements this year are again being made on an independent rather then a joint basis, in accordance with the plan adopted in December, 1949. Alfred C. Neal, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, has been appointed chairman of the local arrangements committee. The president of the association, John H. Williams is responsible for the program and would appreciate suggestions of topics and speakers. Gardner Ackley, of the University of Michigan, is serving a economic adviser to the administrator of the Economic Stabilization Agency. Karl M. Arndt has been granted extended leave from the University of Nebraska to continue as a member of the staff of the Council of Economic Advisers to the President. Thomas Balogh will be visiting professor in the summer session of the University of Minnesota.

The article reports developments about the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. Scientists John F. Floberg and John H. Williams has announced that they would leave the Atomic Energy Comission on June 30, 1961. Floberg said that he was leaving due to personal reasons while Williams resigned for health reasons. The Atomic Energy Commission's operation in Oak Ridge has stopped. This followed the transfer of municipal facilities to the City of Oak Ridge and of the hospital to the Oak Ridge Hospital of the Methodist Church Inc.

The article offers news briefs related to Atomic Energy Commission (AEC). The Joint Committee on Atomic Energy gave unanimous approval to the AEC's program for new projects for 1960. US president Dwight D. Eisenhower named John H. Williams a member of the AEC for the remaining two years of Willard F. Libby's term. The tentative plans have been made by the AEC to dig a harbor in Kotzebue Sound near Cape Thompson, Alaska, by exploding five hydrogen bombs.

This article discusses research paper by professor John H. Williams related to economics, published in the March 1936 issue of the journal "The American Economic Review." In connection with professor Williams' paper, a question can be raised about his comments on the composition of the Open Market Committee. One can agree with professor Williams that all the instruments of credit control, including discount rates, open-ma!rket operations, changes in reserve requirements, changes in margin requirements, and changes in interest rates on deposits, should be concentrated in one authority. But if all these powers are to be concentrated in one authority, the question arises whether a committee consisting of seven members of The U.S. Federal Reserve Board and five representatives of the banks is the best authority to which to entrust all these powers. There is one more question in mind whether it is proper to entrust all the important policy matters to a committee which only meets periodically. It seems that in order to discharge its functions adequately the body that has the responsibility for credit policy should be in continuous session, giving its entire time to such problems. This question will have to be settled some day. In the meantime, it may be that as a practical matter of operation it will work out satisfactorily under the existing law. If it does not, then the law will ultimately be modified.