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Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and related disruptions led to a significant decline in HIV diagnoses in the United States in 2020. A previous analysis estimated 18% fewer diagnoses than expected among persons with HIV (PWH) acquiring infection in 2019 or earlier, suggesting that the decline in overall diagnoses cannot be attributed solely to decreased transmission. This analysis evaluates the progress made towards closing the 2020 diagnosis deficit in 2021., Methods: We apply previously developed methods analyzing 2021 diagnosis data from the National HIV Surveillance System to determine whether 2021 diagnosis levels of PWH infected pre-2020 are above or below the expected pre-COVID trends. Results are stratified by assigned sex at birth, transmission group, geographic region, and race/ethnicity., Results: In 2021, HIV diagnoses returned to pre-COVID levels among all PWH acquiring infection 2011-2019. Among Hispanic/Latino PWH and male individuals, diagnoses returned to pre-COVID levels. White PWH, MSM, and PWH living in the south and northeast showed higher-than-expected levels of diagnosis in 2021. For the remaining populations, there were fewer HIV diagnoses in 2021 than expected., Conclusion: Although overall diagnoses among persons acquiring HIV pre-2020 returned to pre-COVID levels, the diagnosis gap observed in 2020 remained unclosed at the end of 2021. Fewer than expected diagnoses among certain populations indicate that COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV diagnosis trends remained in 2021. Although some groups showed higher-than-expected levels of diagnoses, such increases were smaller than corresponding 2020 decreases. Expanded testing programs designed to close these gaps are essential., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Clusters of rapid HIV transmission in the United States are increasingly recognized through analysis of HIV molecular sequence data reported to the National HIV Surveillance System. Understanding the full extent of cluster networks is important to assess intervention opportunities. However, full cluster networks include undiagnosed and other infections that cannot be systematically observed in real life., Methods: We replicated HIV molecular cluster networks during 2015-2017 in the United States using a stochastic dynamic network simulation model of sexual transmission of HIV. Clusters were defined at the 0.5% genetic distance threshold. Ongoing priority clusters had growth of ≥3 diagnoses/year in multiple years; new priority clusters first had ≥3 diagnoses/year in 2017. We assessed the full extent, composition, and transmission rates of new and ongoing priority clusters., Results: Full clusters were 3-9 times larger than detected clusters, with median detected cluster sizes in new and ongoing priority clusters of 4 (range 3-9) and 11 (range 3-33), respectively, corresponding to full cluster sizes with a median of 14 (3-74) and 94 (7-318), respectively. A median of 36.3% (range 11.1%-72.6%) of infections in the full new priority clusters were undiagnosed. HIV transmission rates in these clusters were >4 times the overall rate observed in the entire simulation., Conclusions: Priority clusters reflect networks with rapid HIV transmission. The substantially larger full extent of these clusters, high proportion of undiagnosed infections, and high transmission rates indicate opportunities for public health intervention and impact., Competing Interests: The authors have no other funding or conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic impacted sexual behaviors and the HIV continuum of care in the United States, reducing HIV testing and diagnosis, and use of preexposure prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to understand the future implications of these effects through a modeling study., Methods: We first ran our compartmental model of HIV transmission in the United States accounting for pandemic-related short-term changes in transmission behavior and HIV prevention and care provision in 2020 to 2021 only. We then ran a comparison scenario that did not apply pandemic effects but assumed a continuation of past HIV prevention and care trends. We compared results from the 2 scenarios through 2024., Results: HIV incidence was 4·4% lower in 2020 to 2021 for the pandemic scenario compared with the no-pandemic scenario because of reduced levels of transmission behavior, despite reductions in HIV prevention and care caused by the pandemic. However, reduced care led to less viral load suppression among people with HIV in 2020, and in turn, our model resulted in a slightly greater incidence of 2·0% from 2022 to 2024 in the COVID-19 scenario, as compared with the non-COVID scenario., Discussion: Disruptions in HIV prevention and care services during COVID-19 may lead to somewhat higher postpandemic HIV incidence than assuming prepandemic trends in HIV care and prevention continued. These results underscore the importance of continuing to increase HIV prevention and care efforts in the coming years., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest and Sources of Funding: All support for this project was provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2024 American Sexually Transmitted Diseases Association. All rights reserved.)

Background: Whether the COVID-19 pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on mortality among persons with diagnosed HIV (PWDH) in the United States is unclear. Through our macroscale analysis, we seek to better understand how the COVID-19 pandemic affected mortality among PWDH., Methods: We obtained mortality and population data for the years 2018-2020 from the National HIV Surveillance System for the US PWDH population and from publicly available data for the general population. We computed mortality rates and excess mortality for both the general and PWDH populations. Stratifications by age, race/ethnicity, and sex were considered. For each group, we determined whether the 2020 mortality rates and mortality risk ratio showed a statistically significant change from 2018 to 2019., Results: Approximately 1550 excess deaths occurred among PWDH in 2020, with Black, Hispanic/Latino, and PWDH aged 55 years and older comprising the majority of excess deaths. Mortality rates increased in 2020 from 2018-2019 across the general population in all groups. Among PWDH, mortality rates either increased or showed no statistically significant change. These increases were similar to, or smaller than, those observed in the general population, resulting in a 7.7% decrease in the mortality risk ratio between PWDH and the general population., Conclusions: While mortality rates among PWDH increased in 2020 relative to 2018-2019, the increases were smaller, or of similar magnitude, to those observed in the general population. We thus do not find evidence of elevated mortality risk from the COVID-19 pandemic among PWDH. These findings held across subpopulations stratified by age, sex, and racial/ethnic group., Competing Interests: The authors have no funding or conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Diagnoses of HIV in the United States decreased by 17% in 2020 due to COVID-related disruptions. The extent to which this decrease is attributable to changes in HIV testing versus HIV transmission is unclear. We seek to better understand this issue by analyzing the discrepancy in expected versus observed HIV diagnoses in 2020 among persons who acquired HIV between 2010 and 2019 because changes in diagnosis patterns in this cohort cannot be attributed to changes in transmission., Methods: We developed 3 methods based on the CD4-depletion model to estimate excess missed diagnoses in 2020 among persons with HIV (PWH) infected from 2010 to 2019. We stratified the results by transmission group, sex assigned at birth, race/ethnicity, and region to examine differences by group and confirm the reliability of our estimates. We performed similar analyses projecting diagnoses in 2019 among PWH infected from 2010 to 2018 to evaluate the accuracy of our methods against surveillance data., Results: There were approximately 3100-3300 (approximately 18%) fewer diagnoses than expected in 2020 among PWH infected from 2010 to 2019. Females (at birth), heterosexuals, persons who inject drugs, and Hispanic/Latino PWH missed diagnoses at higher levels than the overall population. Validation and stratification analyses confirmed the accuracy and reliability of our estimates., Conclusions: The substantial drop in number of previously infected PWH diagnosed in 2020 suggests that changes in testing played a substantial role in the observed decrease. Levels of missed diagnoses differed substantially across population subgroups. Increasing testing efforts and innovative strategies to reach undiagnosed PWH are needed to offset this diagnosis gap. These analyses may be used to inform future estimates of HIV transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)