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Importance: For primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), the 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines on statin use (hereafter European-ESC) recommend a new risk model (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 [European-SCORE2]) as well as new age-specific treatment thresholds (≥7.5% 10-year ASCVD risk if aged 40-49 years and ≥10% if aged 50-69 years)., Objective: To compare the clinical performance of the 2021 European-ESC, American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (hereafter US-ACC/AHA), UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (UK-NICE), and 2019 ESC/European Atherosclerosis Society (EAS) guidelines in apparently healthy individuals., Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based contemporary cohort study included 66 909 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study. Participants were aged 40 to 69 years and were free of ASCVD, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and statin use at baseline in 2003 to 2015. Mean follow-up time was 9.2 years. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to April 2022., Exposures: Statin treatment according to guideline criteria., Main Outcomes and Measures: Calibration of risk calculators, statin eligibility, sensitivity, and specificity for ASCVD events according to guideline criteria., Results: During follow-up, a range of 2962 to 4277 nonfatal and fatal ASCVD events was observed, as defined by the 2021 European-SCORE2, US pooled cohort equations (PCE), and UK-QRISK3 models, and 180 fatal ASCVD events were noted as defined by the 2019 European-SCORE1 model. European-SCORE2 was slightly better calibrated with a predicted/observed ASCVD event ratio of 0.8 vs 1.3 for US-PCE, 1.3 for UK-QRISK3, and 5.8 for European-SCORE1. For primary prevention class I recommendations in individuals aged 40 to 69 years, 2862 of 66 909 (4%) qualified for statins according to the 2021 European-ESC guidelines compared with 23 029 (34%) with US-ACC/AHA, 17 659 (26%) with UK-NICE, and 13 496 (20%) with 2019 European-ESC/EAS guidelines, with associated sensitivities for detecting future European-SCORE2-defined ASCVD events of 12%, 60%, 51%, and 36%, respectively. The sensitivity of the European-ESC guidelines was improved considerably by lowering the treatment thresholds, resulting in smaller losses in specificity. To obtain similar clinical performance with the 2021 European-ESC guidelines as in the other guidelines, the threshold with European-SCORE2 should be reduced to 5% overall to match US-ACC/AHA, to 6% to match UK-NICE, and to 7% to match 2019 European-ESC/EAS guidelines., Conclusions and Relevance: Despite an improved European-SCORE2 prediction model, the new treatment thresholds in the 2021 European-ESC guidelines dramatically reduce eligibility for primary prevention with statins in low-risk European countries. Using lower treatment thresholds can improve overall guideline performance.

The objective of this study was to evaluate 1) whether non single nucleotide polymorphisms-coding (non-cSNP) in the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) identified by resequencing studies contribute to statistically explaining dyslipidemia if variations in the two cSNPs in exon 4 that define the 2, 3, and 4 alleles are ignored, and 2) whether the contribution of these additional SNPs persists when variations in the cSNPs are considered. We used an ecological, multiple-population, data-mining strategy to identify single-SNP and two-SNP genotypes that distinguish between high and low levels of plasma lipids in three training samples, European-Americans from Rochester, MN, African-Americans from Jackson, MS, and Europeans from North Karelia, Finland. We found that a pair of SNPs located in the 5' region define genotypes A560T832/A560T832, A560T832/A560G832, and A560T832/T560T832, which distinguish between high and low levels of HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides (TG), and/or total cholesterol (T-C). The A560T832/- genotypes predicted high TG and high T-C in both genders in a large independent test sample from Copenhagen, Denmark. Prediction of high T-C in the Danish females was dependent on genotypes defined by the cSNPs. Our study suggests that both regulatory and structural variations should be considered when evaluating the utility of APOE for predicting dyslipidemia in the population at large.