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Aims Prediction of mitral (MR) and tricuspid (TR) regurgitation progression on transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is needed to personalize valvular surveillance intervals and prognostication. Methods and results Structured TTE report data at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 26 January 2000–31 December 2017, were used to determine time to progression (≥1+ increase in severity). TTE predictors of progression were used to create a progression score, externally validated at Massachusetts General Hospital, 1 January 2002–31 December 2019. In the derivation sample (MR, N = 34 933; TR, N = 27 526), only 5379 (15.4%) individuals with MR and 3630 (13.2%) with TR had progression during a median interquartile range) 9.0 (4.1–13.4) years of follow-up. Despite wide inter-individual variability in progression rates, a score based solely on demographics and TTE variables identified individuals with a five- to six-fold higher rate of MR/TR progression over 10 years (high- vs. low-score tertile, rate of progression; MR 20.1% vs. 3.3%; TR 21.2% vs. 4.4%). Compared to those in the lowest score tertile, those in the highest tertile of progression had a four-fold increased risk of mortality. On external validation, the score demonstrated similar performance to other algorithms commonly in use. Conclusion Four-fifths of individuals had no progression of MR or TR over two decades. Despite wide interindividual variability in progression rates, a score, based solely on TTE parameters, identified individuals with a five- to six-fold higher rate of MR/TR progression. Compared to the lowest tertile, individuals in the highest score tertile had a four-fold increased risk of mortality. Prediction of long-term MR/TR progression is not only feasible but prognostically important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Whether passively collected data can substitute for adjudicated outcomes to reproduce the magnitude and direction of treatment effect observed in cardiovascular clinical trials is not well known.Methods: We linked adults ≥65 years of age in the HiR (US CoreValve Pivotal High Risk) and SURTAVI trials (Surgical or Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in Intermediate-Risk Patients) to 100% Medicare inpatient claims, January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2016. Primary (eg, death and stroke) and secondary trial end points were compared across treatment arms (eg, transcatheter aortic valve replacement [TAVR] versus surgical aortic valve replacement [SAVR]) using trial-adjudicated outcomes versus outcomes derived from claims at 1 year (HiR) or 2 years (SURTAVI).Results: Among 600 linked HiR participants (linkage rate, 80.0%), the rate of the trial's primary end point of all-cause mortality occurred in 13.7% of patients receiving TAVR and 16.4% of patients receiving SAVR at 1 year by using both trial data (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.65-1.09]; P=0.33) and claims data (hazard ratio, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.66-1.11]; P=0.34; interaction P value=0.80). Noninferiority of TAVR relative to SAVR was seen by using both trial- and claims-based outcomes (Pnoninferiority<0.001 for both). Among 1005 linked SURTAVI trial participants (linkage rate, 60.5%), the trial's primary end point was 12.9% for TAVR and 13.1% for SAVR using trial data (hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.79-1.48]; P=0.90), and 11.3% for TAVR and 12.5% for SAVR patients using claims data (hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.73-1.41]; P=0.58; interaction P value=0.89). TAVR was noninferior to SAVR when compared using both trial and claims (Pnoninferiority<0.001 for both). Rates of procedural secondary outcomes (eg, aortic valve reintervention, pacemaker rates) were more closely concordant between trial and claims data than nonprocedural outcomes (eg, stroke, bleeding, cardiogenic shock).Conclusions: In the HiR and SURTAVI trials, ascertainment of trial primary end points using claims reproduced both the magnitude and direction of treatment effect in comparison with adjudicated event data, but nonfatal and nonprocedural secondary outcomes were not as well reproduced. Use of claims to substitute for adjudicated outcomes in traditional trial treatment comparisons may be valid and feasible for all-cause mortality and certain procedural outcomes but may be less suitable for other end points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Readmission rates after hospitalizations for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia among Medicare beneficiaries are used to assess quality and determine reimbursement. Whether these measures reflect readmission rates for other conditions or insurance groups is unknown. Objective: To investigate whether hospital-level 30-day readmission measures for publicly reported conditions (HF, AMI, and pneumonia) among Medicare patients reflect those for Medicare patients hospitalized for unreported conditions or non-Medicare patients hospitalized with HF, AMI, or pneumonia. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: Population-based. Participants: Hospitals in the all-payer Nationwide Readmissions Database in 2013 and 2014. Measurements: Hospital-level 30-day all-cause risk-standardized excess readmission ratios (ERRs) were compared for 3 groups of patients: Medicare beneficiaries admitted for HF, AMI, or pneumonia (Medicare reported group); Medicare beneficiaries admitted for other conditions (Medicare unreported group); and non-Medicare beneficiaries admitted for HF, AMI, or pneumonia (non-Medicare group). Results: Within-hospital differences in ERRs varied widely among groups. Medicare reported ratios differed from Medicare unreported ratios by more than 0.1 for 29% of hospitals and from non-Medicare ratios by more than 0.1 for 46% of hospitals. Among hospitals with higher readmission ratios, ERRs for the Medicare reported group tended to overestimate ERRs for the non-Medicare group but underestimate those for the Medicare unreported group. Limitation: Medicare groups and risk adjustment differed slightly from those used by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Conclusion: Hospital ERRs, as estimated by Medicare to determine financial penalties, have poor agreement with corresponding measures for populations and conditions not tied to financial penalties. Current publicly reported measures may not be good surrogates for overall hospital quality related to 30-day readmissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies have examined rates and causes of short-term readmissions among adults across age and insurance types. We compared rates, characteristics, and costs of 30-day readmission after all-cause hospitalizations across insurance types in the US. We retrospectively evaluated alive patients ≥18 years old, discharged for any cause, 1/1/13-11/31/13, 2006 non-federal hospitals in 21 states in the Nationwide Readmissions Database. The primary stratification variable of interest was primary insurance. Comorbid conditions were assessed based on Elixhauser comorbidities, as defined by administrative billing codes. Additional measures included diagnoses for index hospitalizations leading to rehospitalization. Hierarchical multivariable logistic regression models, with hospital site as a random effect, were used to calculate the adjusted odds of 30-day readmissions by age group and insurance categories. Cost and discharge estimates were weighted per NRD procedures to reflect a nationally representative sample. Diagnoses for index hospitalizations leading to rehospitalization were determined. Among 12,533,551 discharges, 1,818,093 (14.5%) resulted in readmission within 30 days. Medicaid insurance was associated with the highest adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for readmission both in those ≥65 years old (AOR 1.12, 95%CI 1.10–1.14; p <0.001), and 45–64 (AOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.66–1.69; p < 0.001), and Medicare in the 18–44 group (Medicare vs. private insurance: AOR 1.99, 95% CI 1.96–2.01; p <0.001). Discharges for psychiatric or substance abuse disorders, septicemia, and heart failure accounted for the largest numbers of readmissions, with readmission rates of 24.0%, 17.9%, 22.9% respectively. Total costs for readmissions were 50.7 billion USD, highest for Medicare (29.6 billion USD), with non-Medicare costs exceeding 21 billion USD. While Medicare readmissions account for more than half of the total burden of readmissions, costs of non-Medicare readmissions are nonetheless substantial. Medicaid patients have the highest odds of readmission in individuals older than age 44, commonly due to hospitalizations for psychiatric illness and substance abuse disorders. Medicaid patients represent a population at uniquely high risk for readmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Early readmission after percutaneous coronary intervention is an important quality metric, but prediction models from registry data have only moderate discrimination. We aimed to improve ability to predict 30-day readmission after percutaneous coronary intervention from a previously validated registry-based model.Methods and Results: We matched readmitted to non-readmitted patients in a 1:2 ratio by risk of readmission, and extracted unstructured and unconventional structured data from the electronic medical record, including need for medical interpretation, albumin level, medical nonadherence, previous number of emergency department visits, atrial fibrillation/flutter, syncope/presyncope, end-stage liver disease, malignancy, and anxiety. We assessed differences in rates of these conditions between cases/controls, and estimated their independent association with 30-day readmission using logistic regression conditional on matched groups. Among 9288 percutaneous coronary interventions, we matched 888 readmitted with 1776 non-readmitted patients. In univariate analysis, cases and controls were significantly different with respect to interpreter (7.9% for cases and 5.3% for controls; P=0.009), emergency department visits (1.12 for cases and 0.77 for controls; P<0.001), homelessness (3.2% for cases and 1.6% for controls; P=0.007), anticoagulation (33.9% for cases and 22.1% for controls; P<0.001), atrial fibrillation/flutter (32.7% for cases and 28.9% for controls; P=0.045), presyncope/syncope (27.8% for cases and 21.3% for controls; P<0.001), and anxiety (69.4% for cases and 62.4% for controls; P<0.001). Anticoagulation, emergency department visits, and anxiety were independently associated with readmission.Conclusions: Patient characteristics derived from review of the electronic health record can be used to refine risk prediction for hospital readmission after percutaneous coronary intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Frailty is associated with a higher risk for adverse outcomes after aortic valve replacement (AVR) for severe aortic valve stenosis, but whether or not frail patients derive differential benefit from transcatheter (TAVR) versus surgical (SAVR) AVR is uncertain.Methods: We linked adults ≥65 years old in the US CoreValve HiR trial (High-Risk) or SURTAVI trial (Surgical or Transcatheter Aortic-Valve Replacement in Intermediate-Risk Patients) to Medicare claims, February 2, 2011, to September 30, 2015. Two frailty measures, a deficit-based and phenotype-based frailty index (FI), were generated. The treatment effect of TAVR versus SAVR was evaluated within FI tertiles for the primary end point of death and nondeath secondary outcomes, using multivariable Cox regression.Results: Of 1442 (linkage rate =60.0%) individuals included, 741 (51.4%) individuals received TAVR and 701 (48.6%) received SAVR (mean age 81.8±6.1 years, 44.0% female). Although 1-year death rates in the highest FI tertiles (deficit-based FI 36.7% and phenotype-based FI 33.8%) were 2- to 3-fold higher than the lowest tertiles (deficit-based FI 13.4%; hazard ratio, 3.02 [95% CI, 2.26-4.02], P<0.001; phenotype-based FI 17.9%; hazard ratio, 2.05 [95% CI, 1.58-2.67], P<0.001), there were no significant differences in the relative or absolute treatment effect of SAVR versus TAVR across FI tertiles for all death, nondeath, and functional outcomes (all interaction P>0.05). Results remained consistent across individual trials, frailty definitions, and when considering the nonlinked trial data.Conclusions: Two different frailty indices based on Fried and Rockwood definitions identified individuals at higher risk of death and functional impairment but no differential benefit from TAVR versus SAVR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to evaluate changes in volume, risk profile, and outcomes among elderly individuals undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR) after TAVR approval in the United States. Retrospective cohort study of patients ≥65 years old with at least one procedural code for isolated SAVR or TAVR among the Medicare beneficiaries between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2014. A total of 137,563 hospitalizations for isolated AVR between 2009 and 2014 were included (SAVR: 102,968 [74.9%]; TAVR: 34,595 [25.1%]). Overall AVR volumes increased by 21.8% per year after TAVR introduction, compared with 2.3% prior (p ≪ 0.001). Changes in SAVR volumes were similar both before and after TAVR introduction, (2.3% per year growth before vs. 2.1% after, p = 0.24). Although patient risk profiles increased among the AVR population (predicted 30-day mortality 4.0% in 2009 vs. 5.4% in 2014; p for trend =0.048), observed 30-day mortality (4.0% in 2009 vs. 3.9% in 2014; p for trend =0.96) and 1-year mortality (10.8% in 2009 to 12.2% in 2014; p for trend =0.069) rates remained stable. Among elderly U.S. patients enrolled in the Medicare, the introduction and the dissemination in the early phase of TAVR was associated with an expansion of AVR to high risk patients, without an observed reduction in the use of SAVR. This expansion was associated with similar mortality among all AVR patients, despite an increase in patient risk. • SAVR and TAVR volumes both increased in the early phase of expansion of TAVR. • TAVR use led primarily to the expansion of AVR to an elderly and higher risk population. • This expansion was associated with similar mortality among all AVR patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keywords: administrative claims, healthcare; clinical trial; coronary artery disease EN administrative claims, healthcare clinical trial coronary artery disease 306 308 3 07/23/20 20200721 NES 200721 B Editorial, see p 214 b Using administrative claims data to ascertain clinical events may be a pragmatic way to make randomized, controlled trials cheaper and more efficient. However, little is known about the accuracy of claims data for estimating treatment effects of randomized therapies. [Extracted from the article]

Since the implementation of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), readmissions have declined for Medicare patients with conditions targeted by the policy (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia). To understand whether HRRP implementation was associated with a readmission decline for patients across all insurance types (Medicare, Medicaid, and private), we conducted a difference-in-differences analysis using information from the Nationwide Readmissions Database. We compared how quarterly readmissions for target conditions changed before (2010-12) and after (2012-14) HRRP implementation, using nontarget conditions as the control. Our results demonstrate that readmissions declined at a significantly faster rate after HRRP implementation not just for Medicare patients but also for those with Medicaid, both in the aggregate and for individual target conditions. However, composite Medicaid readmission rates remained higher than those for Medicare. Throughout the study period privately insured patients had the lowest aggregate readmission rates, which declined at a similar rate compared to nontarget conditions. The HRRP was associated with nationwide readmission reductions beyond the Medicare patients originally targeted by the policy. Further research is needed to understand the specific mechanisms by which hospitals have achieved reductions in readmissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]