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Abstract: We present a dynamic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy and the medical sector in which the adoption of new medical treatments is endogenous and the demand for medical services is conditional on the state of technology. We use this model to prepare 75-year medical spending forecasts and a projection of the Medicare actuarial balance, and we compare our results to those obtained from a method that has been used by government actuaries. Our baseline forecast predicts slower health spending growth in the long run and a lower Medicare actuarial deficit relative to the previous projection methodology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Kyoto agreement as originally drafted sought to mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through policy measures by most industrialized countries. It now seems likely that the agreement will be ratified and implemented without the participation of the United States. Any emissions abatement policies which have a measurable reduction in global emissions will induce changes in the terms of trade and comparative advantage and competitiveness To the extent that aggressive policies are undertaken to reduce CO2 emissions, there are likely to be strong calls in the Kyoto coalition for greenhouse-gas related border adjustment measures. This paper uses a multi-region, multi-commodity static general equilibrium model to quantify and assess the implications of such policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article speculates on the impact of a free trade between Mexico and the United States on the automobile industry. The authors presented an economic model designed to capture key industrial-organization and institutional features of the automobile industry and to numerically solve for the impact of alternative trade liberalization schemes on the pattern of production and trade within the North American region. The authors concluded that free trade will have significant benefits for the Mexican automobile industry with almost no costs imposed on the U.S.