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Background: Estrogen and hormone replacement therapies to reduce Alzheimer's disease (AD) have yielded conflicting results. However, this study proposes that the well-characterized increase in serum gonadotropins following menopause or andropause are accountable for the increased risk of developing AD among the elderly population., Objective: To determine the role of gonadotropins in the development of AD and investigate gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist therapy as a potential preventative and/or disease-modifying approach to AD management., Methods: Male Medicare beneficiaries aged 67 to 75 and hospitalized with prostate cancer (n = 115,789) were compared to three control groups: men of the same demographics undergoing a cholecystectomy (n = 97,267), herniorrhaphy (n = 68,778), or transurethral prostatectomy (n = 267,691). A proportion of the patients hospitalized with prostate cancer were assumed to have low concentrations of serum gonadotropins and sex steroids as a result of GnRH agonist therapy, while those in the control groups were assumed to have elevated gonadotropin but lowered sex steroid levels that are associated with andropause in this age group., Results: The rates of development of select diagnoses of dementia, including AD, over a twelve-year follow-up period following surgery. When compared to control patients, men hospitalized with prostate cancer have a protection against dementia after twelve years of follow-up, with relative risks ranging from 0.48 to 0.83., Conclusion: Patients with prostate cancer are treated with the GnRH analogue leuprolide acetate, our data suggest that leuprolide acetate may be therapeutic for AD via its downregulation of serum gonadotropins.

Background: Delayed chemotherapy is associated with inferior survival in stage III colon and stage II/III rectal cancer patients, but similar studies have not been performed in stage II colon cancer patients. We investigate the association between delayed and incomplete chemotherapy, and the association of delayed chemotherapy with survival in stage II colon cancer patients., Patients and Methods: Patients (age ≥ 66) diagnosed as stage II colon cancer and received chemotherapy from 1992 to 2005 were identified from the linked SEER-Medicare database. The association between delayed and incomplete chemotherapy was assessed using unconditional and conditional logistic regressions. Survival outcomes were assessed using stratified Cox regression based on propensity score matched samples., Results: 4,209 stage II colon cancer patients were included, of whom 73.0% had chemotherapy initiated timely (≤ 2 months after surgery), 14.7% had chemotherapy initiated with moderate delay (2-3 months), and 12.3% had delayed chemotherapy (≥ 3 months). Delayed chemotherapy was associated with not completing chemotherapy (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.59) for moderately delayed group, adjusted OR: 2.60 (2.09, 3.24) for delayed group). Delayed chemotherapy was associated with worse survival outcomes (hazard ratio (HR): 1.75 (1.29, 2.37) for overall survival; HR: 4.23 (2.19, 8.20) for cancer-specific survival)., Conclusion: Although the benefit of chemotherapy is unclear in stage II colon cancer patients, delay in initiation of chemotherapy is associated with an incomplete chemotherapy course and poorer survival, especially cancer-specific survival. Causal inference in the association between delayed initiation of chemotherapy and inferior survival requires further investigation.

Objective: To determine mammography utilization rates for randomly selected white and black women in the USA., Study Design: This was an observational study using data from 1988 to 2000. Data were extracted from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, an annual self-report telephone survey conducted nationally by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention., Methods: The main outcome measure was the mammography utilization rates of women ages 18-40 years responding to 'Have you ever had a mammogram?'. In total, 354097 women were included in this study [310336 (87.6%) white women and 43761 (12.4%) black women]., Results: In women ages 18-33, black women showed consistently higher mammography utilization rates than white women. Utilization rates among women ages 18-23 years were 20.0% and 11.0% for black and white women, respectively. Among women ages 24-29 years, rates were 22.2% and 11.5% for black and white women, respectively. For women ages 30-33 years, rates were 25.7% and 18.1% for black and white women, respectively. Utilization rates were similar in black and white women over 33 years of age., Conclusions: This study found that young black women were receiving more mammography screening than young white women between 1988-2000. This may be due to the increased risk of fibroid masses in young black women.

Little is known about variation in surveillance practices following the diagnosis of invasive melanoma. The objective of this study was to characterize geographic, patient, and tumor variation in the use of follow-up surveillance testing in patients with local or regional stage melanoma. A cohort of Medicare beneficiaries > or =65 y diagnosed with invasive melanoma during 1992 to 1996 living in a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry area was studied. Outpatient and inpatient Medicare claims 3 mo following diagnosis were examined for up to 2 y for surveillance procedures of interest. Use of chest X-ray, chest computed tomography scan, abdominal and/or pelvic computed tomography scan, abdominal ultrasound, head computed tomography scan, head magnetic resonance imaging, laboratory testing, and skin examinations were compared between patient groups and geographic regions. A total of 3389 patients were identified for the analysis. Surveillance testing was relatively common, ranging from 13% for abdominal ultrasound to 80% for laboratory testing. Follow-up skin examinations were performed in 70% to 90% of patients. The use of most surveillance procedures was associated (p<0.01) with younger age, male gender, regional stage tumors, and geographical area, with up to 2-fold differences observed. In contrast, there was much less variability in the receipt of skin examinations. Further studies are needed to determine the etiology and impact of such disparities, and the influence of surveillance procedures on morbidity and mortality.

Background: National-level population-based data about breast carcinoma incidence and its association with screening mammography are currently not available., Methods: Inpatient, hospital outpatient and physician/supplier Medicare claims were used to identify incident cases of breast carcinoma in women > or = 65 years from 1996 to 1997 and calculate county-level incidence rates. The 1994-1995 claims data were used to determine county-level rates of mammography, and determine the correlation with incidence., Results: The median 2-year incidence rate for women > or = 65 was 979/100,000, and substantial variation in incidence between counties was observed. (i.e. 25th percentile 789/100,000, 75th percentile 1186/100,000). Two-year county-level mammography rates also varied among counties (i.e. 25th percentile 30.5%, 75th percentile 40.9%) and were higher in white women than in black women (median 36.8 and 26.3%, respectively). Counties with higher rates of mammography also had higher age-adjusted incidence rates., Conclusions: Medicare claims may provide an alternative source of population-based data, particularly for areas in which registry data are not readily available, or are of limited scope. The data highlight the geographic variation in incidence and screening rates that may be useful for targeted interventions, and also suggest that mammography remains in a growth phase.

Objectives: This study investigated the effect of alcohol-related disease on hip fracture and mortality., Methods: A retrospective cohort design was used. The study cohort consisted of hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries with alcohol-related disease (n = 150,119) and randomly matched controls without alcohol-related disease (n = 726,218) identified through the 1988-1989 inpatient claims file. Incidence rates of hip fracture and mortality were examined., Results: During the study period, 20,620 patients developed hip fracture, with 6973 cases among patients with alcohol-related disease and 13,647 cases among patients without alcohol-related disease. After adjustment for potential confounders, patients with alcohol-related disease had a 2.6-fold increased risk of hip fracture relative to patients without alcohol-related disease (95% confidence interval = 2.5, 2.6). Patients with alcohol-related disease had a higher risk of mortality at 1 year after hip fracture., Conclusions: Alcohol-related disease increases the risk of hip fracture significantly and reduces long-term survival. The present results suggest that patients hospitalized for alcohol-related disease should be targeted for hip fracture prevention programs.

Background: To the authors' knowledge, national-level population-based data regarding prostate carcinoma incidence and detection currently are not available. The availability of such data could identify those regions with a disproportionately high cancer incidence as well as the population-level association between prostate carcinoma detection and incidence., Methods: Inpatient, hospital outpatient, and physician/supplier Medicare claims from 1997 were used to identify incident cases of prostate carcinoma in men age > or = 65 years and to calculate state and county-level incidence rates. The 1991 and 1997 claims data were used to determine small area rates of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and prostate biopsy and to determine their correlation with incidence., Results: The calculated incidence rates for 1997 were 890 per 100,000 and 1196 per 100,000, respectively, in white males and African-American males and varied substantially between counties (i.e., 25--75th percentile, 676--1124 per 100,000). Rates of PSA and prostate biopsy increased markedly from 1991 to 1997 in both white men (1580 per 100,000 to 24,286 per 100,000) and African-American men (1277 per 100,000 to 15,190 per 100,000), and considerable variation in detection between counties was observed. Counties that had higher rates of prostate biopsy also had higher age-adjusted incidence rates, and county-level PSA testing was found to be associated with incidence in African-American patients, but not in white patients., Conclusions: Medicare claims may provide an alternative source of population-based data, particularly for areas in which registry data are not readily available or are of limited scope. In addition, claims provide otherwise unavailable national data concerning cancer detection., (Copyright 2001 American Cancer Society.)

Using a Medicare-based retrospective cohort study, the stroke risk in patients with atrial flutter (RR = 1.41) was determined to be greater than that in a control group (RR = 1.00) but less than that in an atrial fibrillation group (RR = 1.64). Furthermore, patients with atrial flutter who subsequently had an episode of atrial fibrillation had a higher risk of stroke (RR = 1.56) than patients with atrial flutter who never had a subsequent episode of atrial fibrillation (RR = 1.11).

Objectives: To examine the association between hospital type and mortality and length of stay using hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries for a 10-year period., Methods: The retrospective cohort study included 16.9 million hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries > or = 65 years of age admitted for 10 common medical conditions and 10 common surgical procedures from 1984 to 1993. A total of 5,127 acute-care hospitals in the United States were grouped into 6 mutually exclusive hospital types based on teaching status and financial structure (for-profit [FP], not-for-profit [NFP], osteopathic [OSTEO], public [PUB], teaching not-for-profit [TNFP], and teaching public [TPUB]) as reported in the 1988 American Hospital Association database. Logistic and linear regression methods were used to examine risk-adjusted 30-day and 6-month mortality and length of stay., Results: During the 10-year study period, 10.6 million patients were admitted with 1 of the 10 selected medical conditions, and 6.3 million patients were hospitalized for 1 of the 10 selected surgical procedures. Patients at TNFP hospitals had significantly lower risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rates than patients at other hospital types when all diagnoses or procedures were combined (combined diagnoses: RR(TNFP) = 1.00 [reference], RR(TPUB) = 1.40, RR(OSTEO) = 1.14, RR(PUB) = 1.07, RR(FP) = 1.03, RR(NFP) = 1.02; combined procedures: RR(TNFP) = 1.00 [reference], RR(OSTEO) = 1.36, RR(TPUB) = 1.30, RR(PUB) = 1.16, RR(FP) = 1.13, RR(NFP) = 1.08). The results were mostly consistent when diagnoses and procedures were examined separately. After adjustment for patient characteristics, patients at other hospital types had 10% to 20% shorter lengths of stay (LOS) than patients at TNFP hospitals for most diagnoses and procedures studied., Conclusion: As measured by the risk-adjusted 30-day mortality, TNFP hospitals had an overall better performance than other hospital types. However, patients at TNFP hospitals had relatively longer LOS than patients at other hospital types, perhaps reflecting the medical education and research activities found at teaching institutions. Future research should examine the empirical evidence to help elucidate the adequate LOS for a given condition or procedure while maintaining the quality of care.

Although the association between malignancy and thromboembolic disease is well established, the relative risk of developing initial and recurrent deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE) among patients with malignancy versus those without malignancy has not been clearly defined. The Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record (MEDPAR) database was used for this analysis. Patients hospitalized during 1988-1990 with DVT/PE alone, DVT/PE and malignancy, malignancy alone, or 1 of several nonmalignant diseases (other than DVT/PE) were studied. The association of malignancy and nonmalignant disease with an initial episode of DVT/PE, recurrent DVT/PE, and mortality were analyzed. The percentage of patients with DVT/PE at the initial hospitalization was higher for those with malignancy compared with those with nonmalignant disease (0.6% versus 0.57%, p = 0.001). The probability of readmission within 183 days of initial hospitalization with recurrent thromboembolic disease was 0.22 for patients with prior DVT/PE and malignancy compared with 0.065 for patients with prior DVT/PE and no malignancy (p = 0.001). Among those patients with DVT/PE and malignant disease, the probability of death within 183 days of initial hospitalization was 0.94 versus 0.29 among those with DVT/PE and no malignancy (p = 0.001). The relative risk of DVT/PE among patients with specific types of malignancy is described. This study demonstrates that patients with concurrent DVT/PE and malignancy have a more than threefold higher risk of recurrent thromboembolic disease and death (from and cause) than patients with DVT/PE without malignancy. An alternative management strategy may be indicated for such patients.

Background: There are a paucity of data supporting the routine use of follow-up testing to detect recurrent disease after potentially curative initial surgery in patients with nonmetastatic colorectal carcinoma., Methods: Using the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry, all patients age > or =65 years with local or regional colorectal carcinoma who were diagnosed in 1991, underwent surgical resection, and survived at least 6 months after diagnosis were identified. All inpatient, hospital outpatient, and physician/supplier Medicare claims from 6 months after diagnosis through 1994 were examined for follow-up procedures of interest. Procedure use during follow-up was compared across patient groups using both bivariate and multivariate analyses., Results: A total of 5716 patients were identified, with 1.3% found to have developed subsequent primary tumors of the colon or rectum, and 74% surviving through 1994. One or more procedures of interest were performed in 88% of patients; the most commonly performed tests were liver enzymes, chest X-rays, colonoscopy, and computed tomography scans. Lower rates of testing generally were observed with older age groups, patients with fewer comorbidities, and patients who did not survive through the follow-up period. Among all procedures studied, there also was significant variation in the rates of testing across the 9 SEER areas, varying from 1.5-fold to 3.6-fold. The geographic variation persisted in multivariate models adjusting for potentially confounding factors., Conclusions: The current study found significant variability in the use of follow-up procedures, with the most striking differences apparent across geographic regions. Further studies are needed to determine the underlying reasons for the disparities, as well as the impact of surveillance on patient outcomes.

Background: Although Medicare claims data have been used to identify cases of cancer in older Americans, there are few data about their relative sensitivity., Objectives: To investigate the sensitivity of diagnostic and procedural coding for case ascertainment of breast, colorectal, endometrial, lung, pancreatic, and prostate cancer., Subjects: Three hundred and eighty nine thousand and two hundred and thirty-six patients diagnosed with cancer between 1984 and 1993 resided in one of nine Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) areas., Measures: The sensitivity of inpatient and Part B diagnostic and cancer-specific procedural codes for case finding were compared with SEER., Results: The sensitivity of inpatient and inpatient plus Part B claims for the corresponding cancer diagnosis was 77.4% and 91.2%, respectively. The sensitivity of inpatient claims alone was highest for colorectal (86.1%) and endometrial (84.1%) cancer and lowest for prostate cancer (63.6%). However, when Part B claims were included, the sensitivity for diagnosis of breast cancer was greater than for other cancers (93.6%). Inpatient claim sensitivity was highest for earlier years of the study, and, because of more complete data and longer follow up, the highest sensitivity of combined inpatient and Part B claims was achieved in the late 1980s or early 1990s., Conclusions: Medicare claims provide reasonably high sensitivity for the detection of cancer in the elderly, especially if inpatient and Part B claims are combined. Because the study did not measure other dimensions of accuracy, such as specificity and predictive value, the potential costs of including false positive cases need to be assessed.

Objectives: The goal of this study was to provide estimates of race- and sex-specific survival rates over a 10-year period for a cohort of 49,752 Medicare patients admitted to the hospital in 1984 with a diagnosis of pulmonary embolism., Methods: Data were derived from Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record inpatient claims files and the National Death Index file., Results: For a primary diagnosis of pulmonary embolism, median survival times among Black men and women were 2.5 years and 5.2 years, respectively; for White men and women, the median survival times were 4.3 years and 5.9 years, respectively. Median survival times for Black men and women and White men and women with a secondary diagnosis of pulmonary embolism were 0.4 years, 0.7 years, 0.8 years, and 1.4 years, respectively. Survival rates declined with advancing age., Conclusions: Overall, survival rates among Blacks were lower than those among Whites, and men had lower survival rates than women. These survival estimates provide new insights into outcomes following pulmonary embolism in hospitalized elderly people.

Background: Population-based cancer registries that can be used to compare cancer incidence and mortality across regions of the U.S. are currently lacking. The authors conducted this study to validate Medicare claims as a measure of county-level colorectal carcinoma incidence among older Americans. Variations found among counties are described in this article., Methods: A total of 183,174 hospitalized patients age 65 years in 1991-1993 with newly diagnosed colorectal carcinoma who resided in one of 480 large counties were identified in Medicare files. The county-level truncated age, race, and gender adjusted incidence rates for the population age 65 years, the proportion of patients with a code indicating distant metastases, and the 2-year case-fatality rates were determined. Corresponding rates from the SEER database were compared., Results: The median truncated adjusted 3-year incidence rate was 870 per 100,000 (Quartile 1-Quartile 3, 779-955), with almost twofold differences among counties even after the exclusion of outliers. The median proportion of patients with codes indicating distant metastases was 23.4% (range, 10.2-46.9%; Quartile 1-Quartile 3, 20.8-25.8), and the average 2-year case-fatality rate was 39.2% (range, 26.5-51.4%; Quartile 1-Quartile 3, 37.0-41.6). Medicare files tended to underestimate the truncated incidence rate according to SEER, but among counties the two sets of rates were closely correlated (r = 0.94, P < 0.0001)., Conclusions: Medicare files are a potential alternative source of national data for the study of colorectal carcinoma incidence among the elderly at the county level. The data also suggest significant variations among counties in colorectal carcinoma incidence, stage, and mortality that could be used in public health initiatives.

Objectives: This study determined race-, age- and sex-specific trends in 30-day pulmonary embolism mortality rates., Methods: Medicare beneficiaries with a primary or secondary discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 1984 to 1991 (n = 391,991) were examined., Results: For a primary diagnosis of pulmonary embolism, mortality rates declined by 15.2% and 16.0%, respectively, for White male patients 65 to 74 years old and 75 years or older. There was a corresponding decline in mortality rates for White women. For a secondary diagnosis of pulmonary embolism, mortality rates declined by 14.7% and 9.8%, respectively, for White male patients 65 to 74 years old and 75 years or older., Conclusions: The White mortality rate declines revealed in this study did not translate, in all cases, to Black patient groups.

Objectives: This study examined the relationship between atrial fibrillation and (1) stroke and (2) all-cause mortality., Methods: All eligible Medicare patients older than 65 years of age hospitalized in 1985 were followed up for 4 years. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used for assessment of risk of stroke and mortality., Results: A total of 4,282,607 eligible Medicare patients were hospitalized in 1985. The mean age was 76.1 (+/- 7.7) years; 58.7% were female; 7.2% were Black; and 8.4% had a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. During the follow-up period, 66,063 patients (32.6/1000 person-years) developed nonembolic stroke and 7285 (3.6/1000 person-years) developed embolic stroke. After adjustment for age, race, sex, and comorbid conditions, atrial fibrillation remained a significant risk factor for both nonembolic stroke (relative risk [RR] = 1.56) and embolic stroke (RR = 5.80) and for mortality (RR = 1.31). Approximately 4.5% of nonembolic and 28.7% of embolic strokes among hospitalized Medicare patients aged 65 years and older were attributable to atrial fibrillation., Conclusions: This study demonstrates that atrial fibrillation is associated with an appreciable increase in the risk of stroke (both embolic and nonembolic) and in the risk of mortality from all causes.

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the relation of screening mammography to breast cancer incidence and case fatality., Methods: In a sample of White female Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized in 1990-1991, age-adjusted breast cancer incidence and 2-year case fatality rates were estimated and compared with the frequency of mammographic screening from a population-based survey., Results: The average rates for incidence, case fatality, and mammography within 5 years in 29 states were 414/100,000, 18.8%, and 59.2%, respectively. There was a positive state-level correlation between mammography rates and incidence and an inverse correlation between mammography and case fatality., Conclusions: High screening mammography rates in some states are associated with reduced breast cancer case fatality rates, presumably as a result of diagnosis of earlier stage cancers.

Objective: Determine the relation of race and gender to outcome from bleeding peptic ulcer., Design: Retrospective cohort study., Setting: All acute care hospitals in the United States., Patients: A 100% sample of hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries older than 64 years (n = 82,868) with a primary discharge diagnosis of peptic ulcer with hemorrhage., Measurements and Main Results: Surgical treatment was performed in 6.9% of patients, 30-day mortality was 8.5%, and average length of stay was 9.4 days. Surgery was somewhat more common in men than women (7.3% vs 6.5%, p < .001), and in whites than African Americans (6.9% vs 6.3%, p < .001), but neither race nor gender was associated with surgery in multivariable analysis adjusting for potentially confounding factors. Mortality rates were similar in African Americans and whites (8.5%), and somewhat higher in men than women (10.7% vs 9.3%, p < .001). In multivariable analysis, there was no difference in mortality across gender and racial groups. Although unadjusted and adjusted lengths of stay were longer for African Americans and shorter for men, the differences were modest (i.e., 16% increase and 6% decrease in multivariable analysis, respectively, p < .0001)., Conclusions: In this national sample, there is no significant gender or racial difference in therapy and outcome for patients with hemorrhagic peptic ulcer. The findings raise the possibility that studies that have shown race and gender differences in management of coronary artery disease and cancer may not be generalizable to other common diagnoses.

In the United States, blacks have higher death rates from colon cancer than whites, and the survival disparity may be due in part to differences in screening programs and acute medical care in counties with a high concentration of blacks. We studied 148,947 Medicare beneficiaries with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer in 1989-1991 who resided in the 329 most populous counties in the United States to determine the relationship of race and county racial composition to cancer incidence and survival. Counties were divided into quartiles based on proportion of blacks in the population, and aggregate incidence and 2-year case-fatality rates were compared within and between quartiles. Within each quartile, the adjusted incidence rate for whites was consistently higher than that for blacks (P < 0.0001), and case-fatality rates were consistently lower among whites (P < 0.0001) for all but the quartile with the lowest proportion of blacks. Between quartiles, the incidence rates for both whites (P = 0.0001) and blacks (P = 0.008) decreased progressively, and case fatality rates increased progressively for both whites (P = 0.001) and blacks (P = 0.007) as the proportion of blacks increased. When counties were grouped into three different geographic areas, racial disparity in survival was observed in all regions. The variability between groups of counties in colon cancer incidence and mortality for both white and black patients may suggest differences at the county level in screening and treatment. However, consistent racial disparity within county quartiles may reflect persistent deficiencies in access to and quality of care for black patients.

Objective: Our purpose was to examine length of hospital stay, complications, morbidity, and mortality associated with surgery for urinary incontinence in women > 65 years old., Study Design: Data obtained from Medicare billing forms (HCFA form 1450, UB-82, UB-92) in the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record database for surgical procedures done for incontinence (international Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes 59.3 to 59.79) from 1984 to 1991 were reviewed. Comorbidities and reasons for readmission were extracted from secondary diagnosis codes., Results: There wee 66,478 patients in the cohort. The mean and median ages were 71 years. The 30-day surgical mortality was 0.33%. Length of stay and mortality increased linearly with age. Acute events associated with death were myocardial infarction (14.2% of deaths), cerebrovascular accident (stroke) (14.6%), pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis (9.7%), and pneumonia (2.7%). Patients who died had higher rates of diabetes and heart failure but not of hypertension. The 30-day readmission rate was 4.8% with higher rates in patients > 80 years old. Urinary tract infection (12.2%), hypertension (16%), and unspecified complications (9%) were the most frequent diagnoses on readmissions. Myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, cerebrovascular accident, deep vein thrombosis, and pneumonia each occurred in only 1%., Conclusion: Incontinence surgery is safe in the "young elderly." Those > 80 years old and with certain chronic illness should be counseled about increased risks.

Background: Short-term race- and sex-specific case- fatality rates for pulmonary embolism (PE) in the elderly have not been studied previously, to our knowledge., Objectives: To examine 30-day race- and sex-specific case-fatality rates of PE in the Medicare population and to determine the risk of fatality when PE was a secondary diagnosis in 6 primary concurrent conditions and 3 surgical procedures., Methods: Case-fatality rates were determined using the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record tiles from 1984 through 1991. All Medicare Part A beneficiaries aged 65 years or older were included, yielding more than 400,000 patients with PE. Case-fatality rates 30 days from hospital admission were calculated for both a primary discharge diagnosis of PE and a secondary discharge diagnosis of PE., Results: Blacks with PE as a primary discharge diagnosis had an overall age-adjusted case-fatality rate of 16.1% compared with a rate of 12.9% for whites. When PE was a secondary diagnosis, blacks also had higher rates than whites (34.7% vs 30.2%). Men had a fatality rate of 13.7% whereas women had a rate of 12.8% when PE was the primary diagnosis. For a secondary diagnosis of PE, men had a rate of 32.8% compared with a rate of 28.6% for women. The risk of fatality was very high when PE was a secondary discharge diagnosis in 6 primary concurrent conditions (congestive heart failure, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, hip fracture, and stroke) and 3 common surgical procedures (coronary artery bypass graft, hip replacement, and knee replacement) relative to the case-fatality rate when PE was not present in these conditions., Conclusions: Our results indicate that there are racial and gender differences in 30-day case-fatality rates for PE in elderly patients. The high fatality risk associated with PE as a comorbid factor among common primary concurrent conditions and procedures calls attention to the need for more effective prophylaxis of deep vein thrombosis and rapid diagnosis and treatment of PE when it occurs.

This study examined surgery for colorectal cancer among Medicare beneficiaries 65 years of age or older with an initial diagnosis in 1987 (n = 81 579). Black patients were less likely than White to undergo surgical resection (68% vs 78%), even after age, comorbidity, and location and extent of tumor were controlled for. Among those who underwent resection, Black patients were more likely to die (a 2-year mortality rate of 40.0% vs 33.5% in White patients); this disparity also remained after confounders had been controlled. The disparities were similar in teaching and nonteaching hospitals and in private and public hospitals. These data may indicate racially based differences among Medicare beneficiaries in access to and quality of care for colorectal cancer.

Objective: The study investigated the value of using national or regional data bases to examine care in a specific hospital., Data Sources: The following data sources were included: (1) the results of the 1992 HCFA analysis of the index hospital for patients hospitalized in fiscal year 1990; (2) the 1989 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MEDPAR) file; and (3) clinical information from bypass surgery patients in Wisconsin and from the index hospital., Principal Findings: The assessment of the mortality rates in the index hospital for all conditions combined and for CABG patients differed depending on what data base was used and how the data were analysed. The national data were most useful in establishing that the coding practices for all patients and the mortality rate for intra-aortic balloon patients differed between the index hospital and other hospitals. The regional clinical data base for bypass surgery patients was used to establish that the high mortality rates for intra-aortic balloon patients were due to patient selection., Conclusions: National claims data must be analysed carefully before applying results to an individual hospital. Even a careful analysis is more for raising questions about care at a specific hospital rather than for reaching definitive conclusions.

Background: Population-based screening programs with flexible sigmoidoscopy have been advocated as a means to reduce the death rate from colorectal cancer. Because other studies have suggested a greater prevalence of lesions inaccessible to sigmoidoscopy in older patients, the expected yield of this procedure may differ in these subgroups., Methods: A 100% sample of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years or older with a first known diagnosis of colorectal cancer in 1987 was studied. Tumor site was divided into rectum, distal colon (distal to splenic flexure) and proximal colon. The analysis was also stratified by sex, race, and presence or absence metastatic disease, and incidence rates at each site by 5-year age group were calculated., Results: Among the 75,266 patients studied, the incidence of colorectal cancer increased from 1.59 patients/1000 in patients age 65-69 years to 3.87 patients/1000 in patients age 85 years and older. Although the incidence rates at all three sites increased, the increment was greatest for proximal tumors. The incidence trends with age also persisted in an analysis of only metastatic lesions. Moreover, incidence rates were consistently higher in men than in women and higher in whites than in blacks at all sites, though the age-related increase in incidence was consistent among all four groups., Conclusions: The proportion of tumors beyond the reach of sigmoidoscopy increased with age, as did the actual incidence of accessible lesions. These patterns were also consistent in subgroup analyses. As the age-related increase in incidence was observed for metastatic tumors at all sites in the colon, age-related differences in screening and diagnostic evaluation alone do not adequately explain the findings. These data underscore the need for further studies of the relative benefits of cancer screening and pathogenic factors in tumor development in different subgroups of the older population.

Hospital characteristics have been shown previously to be associated with variations in the probability of death within 30 days of admission. In the current study, the authors extend the examination of the relationship between hospital type to both short-term and long-term adjusted mortality. Observed and predicted 1988 hospital mortality rates were obtained from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA). A total of 3,782 acute care hospitals were divided into six mutually exclusive groups on the basis of their status as osteopathic, private for-profit, public teaching, public nonteaching, private teaching, and private nonteaching hospitals. After adjusting for the HCFA predicted mortality, Medicaid admissions, and emergency visits, 30-day and 30-to-180-day patient mortality rates were compared for these hospital types. Separate comparisons also were performed after stratifying hospitals into three groups defined by community size. The risk-adjusted 30-day mortality per 1,000 patients was 91.5, ranging from 85.4 for private teaching hospitals to 95.3 for nonteaching public hospitals, and 97.4 for osteopathic hospitals. The adjusted 30-to-180-day mortality was 84.7, ranging from 82.6 for nonteaching public hospitals to 87.4 and 88.2, respectively for public teaching and osteopathic hospitals. Differences among hospital types were minimal for small communities and increased with community size. In the large communities, the types of hospitals with high 30-day mortality also had higher mortality after 30 days. There was a strong association of hospital type with adjusted 30-day mortality, which should depend on the quality of hospital care, and a much weaker association with post-30-day mortality, which may be more dependent on patient risk. There was no evidence that types of hospitals with low 30-day mortality were postponing rather than preventing mortality.

Objective: To determine the prevalence, geographic variation, and charges to Medicare of alcohol-related hospitalizations among elderly people in the United States., Design: A cross-sectional prevalence study using 1989 hospital claims data from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA). Rates were determined using (1) hospital claims records from the HCFA's Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record (MEDPAR) database for all Medicare Part A beneficiaries aged 65 years and older; (2) county population estimates for 1985 from the Bureau of the Census; and (3) per capita consumption of alcohol by state in 1989 as estimated by the US Department of Health and Human Services., Setting: Data include all hospital inpatient Medicare Part A beneficiaries aged 65 years and older in the United States in 1989., Results: The prevalence of alcohol-related hospitalizations among people aged 65 years and older nationally in 1989 was 54.7 per 10,000 population for men and 14.8 per 10,000 for women. Comparison with hospital records showed that MEDPAR data had a sensitivity of 77% to detect alcohol-related hospitalizations. There was considerable geographic variation; prevalence ranged from 18.9 per 10,000 in Arkansas to 77.0 per 10,000 in Alaska. A strong correlation existed between alcohol-related hospitalizations and per capita consumption of alcohol by state (Spearman correlation coefficient, .64; P < .0001). In 1989, the hospital-associated charges to Medicare for all admissions where the primary diagnosis was alcohol related (N = 33,039) totaled $233,543,500. Median charge per hospital stay was $4514., Conclusions: Alcohol-related hospitalizations among elderly people are common; rates were similar to those for myocardial infarction as detected by the same method. The charges to Medicare for this preventable problem are considerable. Ecological analysis suggests that per capita consumption in the total US population predicts alcohol-related hospitalizations in the elderly population.

This study assessed the relationship between the Health Care Financing Administration adjusted mortality rate for a hospital and the errors in care found by the peer review process. The three data sets used were: (1) the 1987-1988 completed reviews from 38 peer review organizations (PROs) of 4,132 hospitals and 2,035,128 patients; (2) all 1987 hospital mortality rates for Medicare patients as adjusted by HCFA for patient mix; and (3) the 1986 American Hospital Association Survey. The PRO data were used to compute the percentage of cases reviewed from each hospital confirmed by a reviewing physician to have a quality problem. The average percentage of confirmed problems was 3.73 percent with state rates ranging from 0.03 percent to 38.5 percent. The average within-state correlation between the problem rate and the adjusted mortality rate for all PROs was .19 (p < .0001), but the correlations were much higher for relatively homogeneous groups of hospitals, .42 for public hospitals and .36 for hospitals in large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). These results suggest that the HCFA adjusted hospital mortality rate and the PRO-confirmed problem rate are related methods to compare hospitals on the basis of quality of care. Both methods may compare quality better if used within a group of homogenous hospitals.

Objectives: Current methods to evaluate quality of care are usually limited to reviews of individual cases or comparisons of hospital mortality rates. We present an alternative method that compares complication rates adjusted for patient characteristics., Methods: Detailed clinical data that were specifically designed for quality comparisons of providers of revascularization procedures were abstracted from the medical records of 1998 Medicare patients, in 16 hospitals, who had coronary artery bypass surgery and 2091 patients, in 16 hospitals, who had angioplasty. Providers were ranked on the basis of an unadjusted risk, a risk adjusted for detailed clinical information, and a risk adjusted only for patient comorbidities., Results: Complication rates differed significantly and substantially among the hospitals. Clinical adjustment changed the hospital rankings for the bypass surgery hospitals, but not for the angioplasty hospitals. Adjustment for comorbidities did not affect hospital rankings for either procedure., Conclusions: When sample sizes are limited, adverse outcome rates may be a more sensitive measure of quality of care than mortality rates. Rates that are unadjusted or adjusted only for comorbidities may be inadequate for evaluating some providers of bypass surgery.

From 1987 through 1990, the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) evaluated variations in the mortality rates experienced by patients admitted to hospitals participating in the Medicare program. This study was conducted to evaluate the adequacy of the model used for that purpose. Detailed clinical data were gathered on 42,773 patients admitted to 84 statistically selected hospitals. The effect of risk adjustment using the HCFA model, which is based on claims data, was compared to a risk-adjustment model based on physiologic and clinical data. Models that include claims data were markedly superior to those containing only demographic characteristics in predicting the probability of patient death, and the addition of clinical data resulted in further improvement. The correlation of ranks of hospitals based on a model that uses only the claims data and on one that uses, in addition, clinical data, was .91. As a screen for the identification of "high (mortality) outlier" hospitals, the claims model had moderate sensitivity (81 percent) and specificity (79 percent), a high negative predictive value (90 percent), and a low positive predictive value (64 percent) when compared to the clinical model. The two mortality models gave similar results when used to determine which structural characteristics of hospitals were related to mortality rates: hospitals with a higher proportion of registered nurses or board-certified physician specialists, or with a greater level of access to high-technology equipment had lower risk-adjusted mortality rates. These data suggest that the current claims-based risk-adjustment procedure may satisfactorily be used to characterize variations in mortality rates associated with hospitalization. The procedure could also be used as a basis for further epidemiological analyses of factors that affect the probability of patient death. However, it does not positively identify outlier hospitals as providers of problematic care.

Mortality rates for Medicare patients who underwent coronary artery bypass surgery were compared with those who had angioplasty or angioplasty and bypass surgery. Two data sets were used for this study: The first contained information on demographic factors, co-morbidities and subsequent mortality on all 96,666 Medicare patients who had bypass surgery or angioplasty in 1985; the second contained additional detailed clinical data collected using the MedisGroups method on a random sample of 2,931 revascularization patients from 6 states. From the national data set 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 3.8 and 8.2% for 25,423 angioplasty patients and 6.4 and 11.8% for 71,243 bypass surgery patients (p less than 0.001 for both time periods). Mortality rates for the MedisGroups data were 4.4 and 8.5% for the angioplasty patients and 6.5 and 11.9% for the bypass surgery patients. After eliminating patients admitted with a myocardial infarction, mortality rates were 1.9 and 6.0% for 632 angioplasty patients and 5.1 and 10.8% for 1,730 bypass surgery patients. The risk-adjusted relative risk of mortality for bypass surgery versus angioplasty was 1.72 (p = 0.001) for all patients, 2.15 (p less than 0.001) for low-risk patients and 0.90 (p = not significant) for high-risk patients. Results suggest that low-risk patients have better survival with angioplasty because of lower short-term mortality.

A hospital's quality of care is generally assessed by a review of individual records. This study used unadjusted and risk-adjusted complication rates to measure the quality of care for hospitals that perform coronary artery bypass surgery or angioplasty. Hospitals differed greatly in their complication rates. Only a small percentage of this difference was due to differences in the risks that patients faced.

Objective: This study examines the differences in the rates of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between white and black Medicare patients., Design: This is a cross-sectional study with data from the 1986 Health Care Financing Administration hospital claims records on all Medicare patients, the 1988 update of the Bureau of Health Professions area resource file, and the 1985 Census Bureau's county population estimates file., Setting: Data are from all Medicare patients in the United States in 1986., Main Outcome Measures: Sex- and age-adjusted CABG rates for whites and blacks over the age of 65 years were computed for each of 50 states and 305 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs)., Results: Nationally the CABG rate was 27.1 per 10,000 for whites (40.4 for white men and 16.2 for white women), but only 7.6 for blacks (9.3 for black men and 6.4 for black women). Racial differences were greater in the Southeast, particularly in nonmetropolitan areas, than in other regions. Neither white nor black SMSA rates were associated with the rate of admission for acute myocardial infarction (an indication of the amount of coronary artery disease). White rates, but not black rates, were associated with the number of thoracic surgeons per 100,000 people., Conclusions: For patients insured by Medicare, race is strongly associated with CABG rates, and this association is greater for men than for women and greater in the Southeast than in other parts of the country. Physician supply may relate to the CABG rates for whites.

To determine which characteristics of hospitals may be related to a higher quality of care, the association of hospital characteristics with the outcomes of medical record review by state Peer Review Organizations (PROs) was studied. The two data sources were: 1) the AHA 1986 Annual Survey of Hospitals and 2) reviews completed between July 1987 through June 1988 from six large PROs. For each hospital the percentage of cases that failed physician review (the confirmed problem rate) was computed. Hospital characteristics evaluated included financial status, ownership, medical training, technological sophistication, and size. The following characteristics were significantly associated with a lower confirmed problem rate: a higher occupancy rate, greater payroll expenses per bed, a higher proportion of physicians who were board-certified specialists, greater technological sophistication, a higher number of beds, a higher proportion of nurses who were registered, and membership in the Council of Teaching Hospitals. Public hospitals had higher problems rates than private not-for-profit hospitals. All characteristics significantly related to higher confirmed problem rates were also related to higher adjusted mortality rates in a previous study of 3,100 U.S. hospitals. The results suggest that hospital resources, including financial status, training of medical personnel, and availability of sophisticated equipment, are related to the quality of care provided by the hospital.

This study uses 44 consecutive months of data from the Health Care Financing Administration to assess seasonal trends in hip fracture incidence among the United States white population aged 65 years and older. The authors studied a total of 621,387 cases of hip fracture which occurred from January 1984 to September 1987. During the study period, hip fracture incidence rates display a distinctive pattern of seasonal periodicity; high rates are found in the winter and low rates in the summer among both males and females. This pattern of seasonal periodicity is consistent at ages 65-74 years, 75-84 years, and greater than or equal to 85 years. When the time series of rates are stratified into five geographic levels, each level covering 5 degrees of latitude, the distinctive pattern of seasonal periodicity is the same for all levels.

The independent association of waist to hip ratio (WHR), relative weight, and family history with the prevalence of non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) was investigated in a population of 25,254 White females in the United States and Canada. A multivariate logistic analysis yielded standardized odds ratios of 1.47, 1.46, 1.54, and 1.14 for family history index, WHR, relative weight, and age, respectively.

Data were obtained from the Health Care Financing Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs (formerly called Veterans Administration) on all hospital discharges among the elderly population from 1984 through 1987 and combined with census estimates to calculate incidence rates of hip fracture for the elderly population of the United States. Rates for White women were the highest, reaching 35.4 per 1,000 per year among 95 year-olds. Comparably, White men, Black women, and Black men experienced similar age-related increases in risk, although of less magnitude and relatively less rate of change, respectively.

The relationship between obesity and 18 different disease conditions was examined in a cross-sectional study of 73,000 weight-conscious women (TOPS Club members). The women reported an average of 1.6 disease conditions each (based on their responses on a questionnaire). Age-specific rates of occurrence for the age group 30-49 years were calculated for each disease condition. The conditions that were found to be significantly (P smaller than 0.001) correlated with obesity were diabetes, high blood pressure, gallbladder disease, gout, thyroid disease, heart disease, arthritis, and jaundice. When the crude relative risks of obesity for each disease condition were calculated, diabetes was found to be the highest (4.5), high blood pressure was second (3.3), and gallbladder disease was third (2.7).

Most epidemiologic studies which evaluate the association between obesity and disease consider only total adipose tissue and ignore its distribution. The present study used data from a national survey of women in TOPS (a weight reduction organization) in 1969. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the distribution of adipose tissue as a risk factor for disease using girth, height, and weight measurements in 21,065 women 40-59 years of age and 11,791 women 20-39 years of age. It was found that an index of body fat distribution, the ratio of waist girth to hip girth, was significantly associated with diabetes, hypertension, and gallbladder disease in women aged 40-59 and with menstrual abnormalities in women aged 20-39. Relatively more fat around the waist (as compared to hips) was associated with higher disease prevalence even among women with comparable total body fat. These findings suggest that indices based only on weight and height may not adequately characterize the risks associated with obesity.

Data from 4225 persons from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HANES) was used to determine whether obesity was associated with osteoarthritis (OA) or joint pain. Subjects were divided into four groups on the basis of sex and race. We found that obesity was associated with OA of the knee for each sex/race group (p less than 0.01). The association was strongest for women, and it was present even for subjects without evidence of knee pain on physical examination. Frame size was not significantly associated with OA of the knee. Relative weight was weakly associated with OA of the hips in white women and nonwhite men but not significantly associated with OA of the sacroiliac joint. Diabetes did not seem to be an important risk factor for OA. These results suggest that the additional mechanical stress resulting from obesity is the principal reason for the association between obesity and OA.

Recently, time-series correlations of aggregated data have been used to demonstrate the length of latency periods for environmental factors, such as economic conditions and alcohol consumption, in influencing heart disease mortality. Latency periods were specified by lagging mortality rates relative to the economic indicators or rates of alcohol consumption until the highest correlations were achieved. The tendency has been to interpret these correlations without regard to whether the latency periods described are biologically plausible. The authors have identified four models which represent all the possible outcomes of correlational studies of time-series data. Using United States and Canadian mortality rates in relationship to alcohol consumption, they have demonstrated the application of each of these models. For three of the four models, the time-series (lag) correlations are uniform regardless of the number of years mortality is lagged relative to alcohol consumption, and this uniformity does not permit a latency period to be identified. Only the lag correlations between two nonlinear variables show variations over time, depending on the degree of correspondence between the increasing and decreasing line segments of the two curves. Correlations ranging from high positive to high negative are possible, and several peak correlations (positive and negative) can occur. However, the biologic interpretation of multiple peaks with the same or different signs is problematic. The authors conclude that time-series correlations of aggregated data are not useful for the study of latency periods, and that analysis of time-series correlations for this purpose can be at best ambiguous, and at worst, completely misleading.

The Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) publishes hospital mortality rates each year. We undertook a study to identify characteristics of hospitals associated with variations in these rates. To do so, we obtained data on 3100 hospitals from the 1986 HCFA mortality study and the American Hospital Association's 1986 annual survey of hospitals. The mortality rates were adjusted for each hospital's case mix and other characteristics of its patients. The mortality rate for all hospitalizations was 116 per 1000 patients. Adjusted mortality rates were significantly higher for for-profit hospitals (121 per 1000) and public hospitals (120 per 1000) than for private not-for-profit hospitals (114 per 1000; P less than 0.0001 for both comparisons). Osteopathic hospitals also had an adjusted mortality rate that was significantly higher than average (129 per 1000; P less than 0.0001). Private teaching hospitals had a significantly lower adjusted mortality rate (108 per 1000) than private nonteaching hospitals (116 per 1000; P less than 0.0001). Adjusted mortality rates were also compared for hospitals in the upper and lower fourths of the sample in terms of certain hospital characteristics. The mortality rates were 112 and 121 per 1000 for the hospitals in the upper and lower fourths, respectively, in terms of the percentage of physicians who were board-certified specialists (P less than 0.0001), 112 and 120 per 1000 for occupancy rate (P less than 0.0001), 113 and 120 per 1000 for payroll expenses per hospital bed (P less than 0.0001), and 113 and 119 per 1000 for the percentage of nurses who were registered (P less than 0.0001).

A health survey of 6946 50-to-59 year-old women of TOPS, an organization for weight reduction, was used to study the natural history of obesity. Weight history was compared for four groups of women divided on the basis of their per cent above ideal body weight (IBW) in their 50s (less than 20%, 20-49%, 50-99% and 100+%). In each of the four groups, the majority of women were not obese by age 20. Sixteen per cent of the women who were 100+% overweight in their 50s were not obese at anytime during their first 30 years of life. Thirty-six per cent of the women who were 50-99% about IBW were not overweight at anytime prior to their 30th birthday. The history of obesity prior to age 30 was not associated with weight gain between the ages of 30 and 50. These data suggest: 1) than there is no critical time for the development of obesity, and 2) that previous weight history is not a dominant factor in determining subsequent weight gain.