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The plan for Ending the HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) Epidemic (EHE) in the United States aims to reduce new infections by 75% by 2025 and by 90% by 2030. For EHE to be successful, it is important to accurately measure changes in numbers of new HIV infections after 5 and 10 years (to determine whether the EHE goals have been achieved) but also over shorter timescales (to monitor progress and intensify prevention efforts if required). In this viewpoint, we aim to demonstrate why the method used to monitor progress toward the EHE goals must be carefully considered. We briefly describe and discuss different methods to estimate numbers of new HIV infections based on longitudinal cohort studies, cross-sectional incidence surveys, and routine surveillance data. We particularly focus on identifying conditions under which unadjusted and adjusted estimates based on routine surveillance data can be used to estimate changes in new HIV infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background&Aims: Patients with Barrett’s esophagus (BE) have a risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma of approximately 0.5% per year. Patients may have difficulty understanding this risk. This study assessed the perceived risk of cancer in patients with BE, and correlated their risk estimates with their health care use behaviors. Methods: We performed a survey of patients with BE participating in an endoscopic surveillance program at 2 sites: a university teaching hospital and a Veterans’ Administration hospital. A questionnaire also elicited their demographics as well as their sources of health information. Health care behaviors, including physician visits and endoscopic surveillance behaviors, were assessed. Patients were classified as either overestimators or nonoverestimators of risk. Characteristics of overestimators, as well as health care use patterns, were assessed. Results: One hundred eighteen patients met entry criteria, and 92 (78%) completed all the questionnaires. Sixty-eight percent of patients overestimated their 1-year risk of cancer, with a mean estimated 1-year cancer risk being 13.6%. The lifetime risk also was overestimated by 38% of patients. Patients who overestimated risk were more likely to be Veterans’ Administration medical center patients, have more symptomatic reflux, and were more likely to use the Internet to get health care information. There was no significant difference in physician visits between overestimators and nonestimators (1.2 visits per year vs 1.0, P = .20), nor in endoscopy use (5.7 endoscopies per 5-year period vs 5.0, P = .42). Conclusions: The majority of patients with prevalent BE participating in an endoscopic surveillance program overestimated their chances of developing adenocarcinoma of the esophagus. Efforts to improve education of such patients with BE are warranted. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Introduction: HIV prevalence is high among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Baltimore, Maryland, United States, and the levels of viral suppression among HIV‐positive MSM are relatively low. The HIV Prevention Trials Network 078 trial seeks to increase the levels of viral suppression among US MSM by increasing the rates of diagnosis and linkage to care and treatment. We estimated the increases in viral suppression needed to reach different HIV incidence reduction targets, and the impact of meeting diagnosis and treatment targets. Methods: We used a mathematical model of HIV transmission among MSM from Baltimore, US, parameterised with behavioural data and fitted to HIV prevalence and care continuum data for Baltimore wherever possible, to project increases in viral suppression needed to reduce the HIV incidence rate among Baltimore MSM by 10, 20, 30 or 50% after 2, 5 and 10 years. We also projected HIV incidence reductions achieved if US national targets – 90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) know their HIV serostatus, 90% of those diagnosed are retained in HIV medical care and 80% of those diagnosed are virally suppressed – or UNAIDS 90‐90‐90 targets (90% of PLHIV know their status, 90% of those diagnosed receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), 90% of those receiving ART are virally suppressed) are each met by 2020. Results: To reduce the HIV incidence rate by 20% and 50% after five years (compared with the base‐case at the same time point), the proportion of all HIV‐positive MSM who are virally suppressed must increase above 2015 levels by a median 13 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval 9 to 16 percentage points) from median 49% to 60%, and 27 percentage points (22 to 35) from 49% to 75% respectively. Meeting all three US or 90‐90‐90 UNAIDS targets results in a 48% (31% to 63%) and 51% (38% to 65%) HIV incidence rate reduction in 2020 respectively. Conclusions: Substantial improvements in levels of viral suppression will be needed to achieve significant incidence reductions among MSM in Baltimore, and to meet 2020 US and UNAIDS targets. Future modelling studies should additionally consider the impact of pre‐exposure prophylaxis for MSM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: After identifying and recruiting men who have sex with men living with HIV and virally unsuppressed, this study attempted to enhance treatment and care via case management to increase the proportion who achieved viral suppression., Design: Participants were randomized into one of two study arms: standard of care (SOC) or enhanced case management (CM) intervention. Participants were followed for 12 months with quarterly study assessments, with blood collected for CD4+ cell count testing, HIV viral load testing (primary prespecified outcome), and plasma storage., Methods: Participants identified via respondent-driven sampling and direct recruitment and were invited to participate in the randomized controlled trial. The CM intervention provided a wide range of support services including, health education, clinical care coordination, medication adherence support, and social service assistance. The month-12 assessment included questions about healthcare utilization, stigma, substance use, and mental health., Results: Among the 144 participants virally unsuppressed at baseline, most had had a previous positive HIV test result; were Black, non-Hispanic, gay and bisexual men, aged 22-50. Among the 128 participants at the last study visit, 68 were virally suppressed, with no statistically significant difference between the CM and SOC arms (viral suppression 42% and 53%, respectively; adjusted odds ratio = 0.62 [P = 0.15; 95% confidence interval: 0.32, 1.2])., Conclusions: Reaching targets of at least 90% sustained viral suppression among all people with HIV will likely require more than an individual-level CM approach that addresses barriers to optimal care and treatment at multiple levels., (Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: In the 2019 State of the Union Address, President Trump announced a plan for "Ending the HIV Epidemic" in the United States, with a goal to reduce new HIV infections by 90% by 2030. Phase I of the plan set an intermediate goal of a 75% reduction within 5 years, focusing on select states and counties., Methods: We assessed the feasibility of the first phase of the plan by estimating the fraction of HIV diagnoses that occur within the targeted region, using a statistical model to predict new HIV cases in each county. We suggested new areas that should be added to the current plan, prioritizing by both a "Density Metric" of new HIV cases and a "Gap Metric" quantifying shortcomings in antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake., Results: We found the current plan targets less than 60% of new diagnoses. The plan should be expanded to Puerto Rico, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and Maryland as well as parts of New York, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia, areas which were prioritized by both metrics., Conclusion: Many of the highest priority areas, both by density of HIV cases and by lack of viral suppression and pre-exposure prophylaxis use, were not covered by the original plan, particularly in the South. The current plan to end the HIV epidemic must be expanded to these areas to feasibly allow for a 75% reduction in new HIV cases within 5 years.

Background: The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 067/Alternative Dosing to Augment PrEP Pill Taking (ADAPT) Study evaluated the feasibility of daily and nondaily human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) regimens among high-risk populations, including men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women, in Bangkok, Thailand and Harlem, New York. We used a mathematical model to predict the efficacy and effectiveness of different dosing regimens., Methods: An individual-based mathematical model was used to simulate annual HIV incidence among MSM cohorts. PrEP efficacy for covered sex acts, as defined in the HPTN 067/ADAPT protocol, was estimated using subgroup efficacy estimates from the preexposure prophylaxis initiative (iPrEx) trial. Effectiveness was estimated by comparison of the HIV incidence with and without PrEP use., Results: We estimated that PrEP was highly protective (85%-96% efficacy across regimens and sites) for fully covered acts. PrEP was more protective for partially covered acts in Bangkok (71%-88% efficacy) than in Harlem (62%-81% efficacy). Our model projects 80%, 62%, and 68% effectiveness of daily, time-driven, and event-driven PrEP for MSM in Harlem compared with 90%, 85%, and 79% for MSM in Bangkok. Halving the efficacy for partially covered acts decreases effectiveness by 8-9 percentage points in Harlem and by 5-9 percentage points in Bangkok across regimens., Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that PrEP was more effective among MSM in Thailand than in the United States as a result of more fully covered sex acts and more pills taken around partially covered acts. Overall, nondaily PrEP was less effective than daily PrEP, especially in the United States where the sex act coverage associated with daily use was substantially higher., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Barrett's esophagus (BE) is associated with an increased risk of adenocarcinoma of the esophagus. Despite this increased risk, most cohort studies demonstrate that the mean life expectancy of subjects with BE is no different than age-matched controls. The indirect costs associated with a diagnosis of BE are unclear., Aim: To assess the effect of a diagnosis of BE on insurance premiums., Methods: We assessed twenty national life insurance companies (10 in southern California, 10 in North Carolina) to determine the effect of a diagnosis of BE on life insurance premiums. Our base case in Los Angeles was a 36-yr-old female nonsmoker, and in North Carolina, a 43-yr-old Caucasian male nonsmoker, both in excellent health except for a diagnosis of prevalent BE with no dysplasia. The policy requested was a 20-yr guaranteed term life insurance in the amount of $1,000,000. Companies were asked for their best price exclusive of the BE, and also their best price when considering BE as a preexisting condition. For those companies not offering the "preferred" rates, the insurance representative was subsequently sent a physician's letter explaining BE and providing data substantiating a normal life expectancy in the condition. Companies were also asked for health insurance quotes, including premiums and deductibles, inclusive and exclusive of the diagnosis of BE., Results: Twenty national insurance companies were contacted. For the 43-yr-old man with no BE, the yearly "preferred" premium for life insurance averaged $1,255. The mean cost of the policies offered to the same individual with BE as a preexisting condition was $2,731 (p < 0.001). For the 36-yr-old female the base rate exclusive of BE was $517, with a range of $472-$551. After inclusion of the diagnosis of BE, the mean rate rose by 177%, to $1,434, with a range of $1,144-$1,896. Companies either refused to provide health insurance to the individual with BE or would not provide a quote without review of the medical record. None of the insurance companies changed their quoted rates after receiving the letter written by the physician on behalf of the individual., Conclusions: Despite the preponderance of data demonstrating a normal life expectancy associated with the condition, a diagnosis of BE more than doubles life insurance premiums, and impacts the availability of health insurance. Further steps to educate insurance companies about the risks associated with BE are warranted, and patients should understand this additional "risk" of endoscopic screening for BE. There are significant indirect costs associated with a diagnosis of BE.