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Background: Invasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over 3 years to assess factors mediating the occurrence and abundance of brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout much of the United States., Results: We used maximum entropy models to estimate the suitable habitat of BMSB under several climate scenarios, and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different from those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was influenced most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod., Conclusion: Our results suggest that linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) offers a more effective way to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species than simply occurrence-based models, allowing for targeted mitigation efforts. Implications of distribution shifts under climate change are discussed. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry., (© 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.)

Reliable monitoring of the invasive Halyomorpha halys abundance, phenology and geographic distribution is critical for its management. Halyomorpha halys adult and nymphal captures on clear sticky traps and in black pyramid traps were compared in 18 states across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Pacific Northwest and Western regions of the United States. Traps were baited with commercial lures containing the H. halys pheromone and synergist, and deployed at field sites bordering agricultural or urban locations with H. halys host plants. Nymphal and adult captures in pyramid traps were greater than those on sticky traps, but captures were positively correlated between the two trap types within each region and during the early-, mid- and late season across all sites. Sites were further classified as having a low, moderate or high relative H. halys density and again showed positive correlations between captures for the two trap types for nymphs and adults. Among regions, the greatest adult captures were recorded in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on pyramid and sticky traps, respectively, with lowest captures recorded in the West. Nymphal captures, while lower than adult captures, were greatest in the Southeast and lowest in the West. Nymphal and adult captures were, generally, greatest during July-August and September-October, respectively. Trapping data were compared with available phenological models showing comparable population peaks at most locations. Results demonstrated that sticky traps offer a simpler alternative to pyramid traps, but both can be reliable tools to monitor H. halys in different geographical locations with varying population densities throughout the season., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)