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While rare species are vulnerable to global change, large declines in common species (i.e., those with large population sizes, large geographic distributions, and/or that are habitat generalists) also are of conservation concern. Understanding if and how commonness mediates species' responses to global change, including land cover change, can help guide conservation strategies. We explored avian population responses to land cover change along a gradient from common to rare species using avian data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and land cover data from the National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States. Specifically, we used generalized linear mixed effects models to ask if species' commonness affected the relationship between land cover and counts, using the initial amount of and change in land cover surrounding each North American BBS route from 2001 to 2016. We quantified species' commonness as a continuous metric at the national scale using the logarithm (base 10) of each species' total count across all routes in the conterminous United States in 2001. For our focal 15‐year period, we found that higher proportions of initial natural land cover favored (i.e., were correlated with higher) counts of rare but not common species. We also found that commonness mediated how change in human land cover, but not natural land cover, was associated with species' counts at the end of the study period. Increases in developed lands did not favor counts of any species. Increases in agriculture and declines in pasture favored counts of common but not rare species. Our findings show a signal of commonness in how species respond to a major dimension of global change. Evaluating how and why commonness mediates species' responses to land cover change can help managers design conservation portfolios that sustain the spectrum of common to rare species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban development alters stormflow characteristics and is associated with increasing flood risks. The long-term evaluation of stormflow characteristics that exacerbate floods, such as peak stormflow and time-to-peak stormflow at varying levels of urbanization across different hydroclimates, is limited. This study investigated the long-term (1980s to 2010s) effects of increasing urbanization on key stormflow characteristics using observed 15 min streamflow data across six broad hydroclimate representative urban watersheds in the conterminous United States. The results indicate upward trends in peak stormflow and downward trends in time-to-peak stormflow at four out of six watersheds. The watershed in the Great Plains region had the largest annual increasing (decreasing) percent change in peak stormflow (time-to-peak stormflow). With the current change rates, peak stormflow in the Great Plains region watershed is expected to increase by 55.4% and have a 2.71 h faster time-to-peak stormflow in the next decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strengths and weaknesses of different statistical methodologies for attributing changes in streamflow to land cover are still poorly understood. We examine the relationships between high (Q99), mean (Qmean), and low (Q01) streamflow and urbanization or tree cover change in 729 catchments in the United States between 1992 and 2018. We apply two statistical modeling approaches and compare their performance. Panel regression models estimate the average effect of land cover changes on streamflow across all sites, and show that on average, a 1%‐point increase in catchment urban area results in a small (0.6%–0.7%), but highly significant increase in mean and high flows. Meanwhile, a 1%‐point increase in tree cover does not correspond to strongly significant changes in flow. We also fit a generalized linear model to each individual site, which results in highly varied model coefficients. The medians of the single‐site coefficients show no significant relationships between either urbanization or tree cover change and any streamflow quantile (although at individual sites, the coefficients may be statistically significant and positive or negative). On the other hand, the GLM coefficients may provide greater nuance in catchments with specific attributes. This variation is not well represented through the panel model estimates of average effect, unless moderators are carefully considered. We highlight the value of statistical approaches for large‐sample attribution of hydrological change, while cautioning that considerable variability exists. Key Points: We compare two common statistical attribution methods to contrast model assessments of the influence of land cover changes on streamflowPanel regression shows that mean and high streamflow increase due to urbanization, while a GLMs show no average associationNeither the panel nor the single catchment regression approach revealed a significant average effect of tree cover changes on streamflow [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water data collected from 33 lakes across the Upper Midwest in two sampling regimes spanning ~ 20 years were used to detect changes in water chemistry. Significant increases in chloride, total dissolved solids, and pH, and decreases in magnesium were observed between the two datasets. Rates of change per year were greatest for Cl (0.088 mg L−1 yr−1) and TDS (1.88 mg L−1 yr−1), with road salt application and an increase in impervious surfaces related to urbanization being the suggested causes. The decrease in atmospheric sulphate deposition over the time period was a likely driver for higher pH. Principal component analyses of 10 water chemistry variables for each sampling period were compared using Procrustes rotation, with sample scores from 2013 representing the change in water chemistry (ΔWC). Correlations between mean annual temperature (r = 0.545, p = 0.001) and total annual precipitation (r = −0.672, p = 0.000) with ΔWC warranted the development of a regression model that explained 50% of the variance in the ΔWC (adjusted r2 = 0.50, p < 0.001). The two datasets, collected 20 years apart, reveal trends similar to those observed in other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2016 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) product suite (available on www.mrlc.gov), includes Landsat-based, 30 m resolution products over the conterminous (CONUS) United States (U.S.) for land cover, urban imperviousness, and tree, shrub, herbaceous and bare ground fractional percentages. The release of NLCD 2016 provides important new information on land change patterns across CONUS from 2001 to 2016. For land cover, seven epochs were concurrently generated for years 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2016. Products reveal that land cover change is significant across most land cover classes and time periods. The land cover product was validated using existing reference data from the legacy NLCD 2011 accuracy assessment, applied to the 2011 epoch of the NLCD 2016 product line. The legacy and new NLCD 2011 overall accuracies were 82% and 83%, respectively, (standard error (SE) was 0.5%), demonstrating a small but significant increase in overall accuracy. Between 2001 and 2016, the CONUS landscape experienced significant change, with almost 8% of the landscape having experienced a land cover change at least once during this period. Nearly 50% of that change involves forest, driven by change agents of harvest, fire, disease and pests that resulted in an overall forest decline, including increasing fragmentation and loss of interior forest. Agricultural change represented 15.9% of the change, with total agricultural spatial extent showing only a slight increase of 4778 km2, however there was a substantial decline (7.94%) in pasture/hay during this time, transitioning mostly to cultivated crop. Water and wetland change comprised 15.2% of change and represent highly dynamic land cover classes from epoch to epoch, heavily influenced by precipitation. Grass and shrub change comprise 14.5% of the total change, with most change resulting from fire. Developed change was the most persistent and permanent land change increase adding almost 29,000 km2 over 15 years (5.6% of total CONUS change), with southern states exhibiting expansion much faster than most of the northern states. Temporal rates of developed change increased in 2001–2006 at twice the rate of 2011–2016, reflecting a slowdown in CONUS economic activity. Future NLCD plans include increasing monitoring frequency, reducing latency time between satellite imaging and product delivery, improving accuracy and expanding the variety of products available in an integrated database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• About 10,500 km2 of forestland was disturbed between 2001 and 2004. • About 33% of the disturbed forestland may not return to forest. • About 80% of these locations experienced moderate or severe fire. Droughts that are hotter, more frequent, and last longer; pest outbreaks that are more extensive and more common; and fires that are more frequent, more extensive, and perhaps more severe have raised concern that forests in the western United States may not return once disturbed by one or more of these agents. Numerous field-based studies have been undertaken to better understand forest response to these changing disturbance regimes. Meta-analyses of these studies provide broad guidelines on the biotic and abiotic factors that hinder forest recovery, but study-to-study differences in methods and objectives do not support estimation of the total extent of potentially impaired forest succession. In this research, we provide an estimate of the area of potentially impaired forest succession. The estimate was derived from modeling of an 18-year land cover and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series supported by an extensive ancillary dataset. We estimate an upper bound of approximately 3470 km2 of disturbed forest that may not return or reattain prior composition and structure. Based on the data used, fire appears to be the main disturbance agent of impaired forest succession, although climatic factors cannot be discounted. The numerous field studies routinely cite distal seed sources as a factor that hinders forest recovery, and we estimate that 20 % of the upper bound estimate has no forest cover within a 4.4-ha neighborhood. Our upper bound estimate is about 0.5 % of the 2001 mapped extent of western United States forests. The estimate is cognizant of measurement and modeling uncertainties (i.e., upper bound) and uncertainties related to successional rates and trajectories (i.e., potential). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The difference between 30 m gridded impervious surface area (ISA) between 2001 and 2011 was evaluated within 100 and 1000 m radii of the locations of climate stations that comprise the US Historical Climatology Network. The amount of area associated with observed increases in ISA above specific thresholds was documented for the climate stations. Over 32% of the USHCN stations exhibited an increase in ISA of ⩾20% between 2001 and 2011 for at least 1% of the grid cells within a 100 m radius of the station. However, as the required area associated with ISA change was increased from ⩾1% to ⩾10%, the number of stations that were observed with a ⩾20% increase in ISA between 2001 and 2011 decreased to 113 (9% of stations). When the 1000 m radius associated with each station was examined, over 52% (over 600) of the stations exhibited an increase in ISA of ⩾20% within at least 1% of the grid cells within that radius. However, as the required area associated with ISA change was increased to ⩾10% the number of stations that were observed with a ⩾20% increase in ISA between 2001 and 2011 decreased to 35 (less than 3% of the stations). The gridded ISA data provides an opportunity to characterize the environment around climate stations with a consistently measured indicator of a surface feature. Periodic evaluations of changes in the ISA near the USHCN and other networks of stations are recommended to assure the local environment around the stations has not significantly changed such that observations at the stations may be impacted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface albedo is an essential climate variable that is tightly linked to land cover, such that specific land cover classes (e.g., deciduous broadleaf forest, cropland) have characteristic albedos. Despite the normative of land-cover class specific albedos, there is considerable variability in albedo within a land cover class. The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo product were combined to produce a long-term (14 years) integrated land cover-albedo database for the continental United States that can be used to examine the temporal behavior of albedo as a function of land cover. The integration identifies areas of homogeneous land cover at the nominal spatial resolution of the MODIS (MCD43A) albedo product (500 m × 500 m) from the NLCD product (30 m × 30 m), and provides an albedo data record per 500 m × 500 m pixel for 14 of the 16 NLCD land cover classes. Individual homogeneous land cover pixels have up to 605 albedo observations, and 75% of the pixels have at least 319 MODIS albedo observations (≥ 50% of the maximum possible number of observations) for the study period (2000–2013). We demonstrated the utility of the database by conducting a multivariate analysis of variance of albedo for each NLCD land cover class, showing that locational (pixel-to-pixel) and inter-annual variability were significant factors in addition to expected seasonal (intra-annual) and geographic (latitudinal) effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate land conversion to development in micropolitan areas in Appalachia and the Black Belt. Both of these areas have legacies of spatial inequality, with many counties historically lagging behind the rest of the nation in terms of social and economic well-being. Our work poses two specific questions: (1) Are rural and micropolitan communities in these regions experiencing similar patterns of development? (2) Are development patterns linked to geographic isolation, population, and population density? We demonstrate that total development in both rural and micropolitan areas in the Black Belt and Appalachia is higher than the national average. However, shortterm conversion to development in micropolitan areas (2001-2006) is consistent across the two regions and nationally, a finding which is unique to the micropolitan level of the urban hierarchy. Future research should investigate commonalities amongst micropolitan areas that may trigger or hinder land use change in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is an empirical examination of human-environment interactions associated with deforestation. The focus is on areas adjacent to the Buffalo National River and Ozark–St. Francis National Forest. Satellite imagery and census data over a 10-year timeframe are analyzed using multivariate methods to provide insight into underlying processes impacting land cover change. Examination of the parameters in areas near public land boundaries in conjunction with distance-to-the-boundary measures indicate changes immediately adjacent to the public lands differ from those at a distance. Public lands with differing mandates (resource conservation for current and future utilization in the case of U.S. Forest Service lands and preservation of existing “wilderness” condition in the case of the Buffalo National River) function separately within the wider landscape context. Land cover change due to deforestation is driven by transportation infrastructure, slope, distance to large urban centers, and location relative to public lands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We relate the historical (1850-2000) spatial and temporal changes in cropland cover in the conterminous United States to several socio-economic and biophysical determinants using an eco-region based spatial framework. Results show population density as a major determinant during the nineteenth century, and biophysical suitability as the major determinant during the twentieth century. We further examine the role of technological innovations, socio-economic and socio-ecological feedbacks that have either sustained or altered the cropland trajectories in different eco-regions. The cropland trajectories for each of the 84 level-III eco-regions were analyzed using a nonlinear bi-analytical model. In the Eastern United States, low biophysically suitable eco-regions, e.g., New England, have shown continual decline in the cropland after reaching peak levels. The cropland trajectories in high biophysically suitable regions, e.g., Corn Belt, have stabilized after reaching peak levels. In the Western United States, low-intensity crop cover (<10 %) is sustained with irrigation support. A slower rate of land conversion was found in the industrial period. Significant effect of Conservation Reserve Program on planted crop area is found in last two decades (1990-2010). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the US Corn Belt, a recent doubling in commodity prices has created incentives for landowners to convert grassland to corn and soybean cropping. Here, we use land cover data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer to assess grass- land conversion from 2006 to 2011 in the Western Corn Belt (WCB): five states including North Dakota. South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. Our analysis identifies areas with elevated rates of grass-to-corn/soy conversion (1.0-5.4% annually). Across the WCB, we found a net decline in grass-dominated land cover totaling nearly 530,000 ha. With respect to agronomic attributes of lands undergoing grassland conversion, corn/soy production is expanding onto marginal lands characterized by high erosion risk and vulnerability to drought. Grassland conversion is also concentrated in close proximity to wetlands, posing a threat to water-fowl breeding in the Prairie Pothole Region. Longer-term land cover trends from North Dakota and Iowa indicate that recent grassland conversion represents a persistent shift in land use rather than short-term variability in crop rotation patterns. Our results show that the WCB is rapidly moving down a pathway of increased corn and soybean cultivation. As a result, the window of opportunity for realizing the benefits of a biofuel industry based on perennial bioenergy crops, rather than corn ethanol and soy biodiesel, may be closing in the WCB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agronomic intensification has transformed many agricultural landscapes into expansive monocultures with little natural habitat. A pervasive concern is that such landscape simplification results in an increase in insect pest pressure, and thus an increased need for insecticides. We tested this hypothesis across a range of cropping systems in the Midwestern United States, using remotely sensed land cover data, data from a national census of farm management practices, and data from a regional crop pest monitoring network. We found that, independent of several other factors, the proportion of harvested cropland treated with insecticides increased with the proportion and patch size of cropland and decreased with the proportion of seminatural habitat in a county. We also found a positive relationship between the proportion of harvested cropland treated with insecticides and crop pest abundance, and a positive relationship between crop pest abundance and the proportion cropland in a county. These results provide broad correlative support for the hypothesized link between landscape simplification, pest pressure, and insecticide use. Using regression coefficients from our analysis, we estimate that, across the seven-state region in 2007, landscape simplification was associated with insecticide application to 1.4 million hectares and an increase in direct costs totaling between $34 and $103 million. Both the direct and indirect environmental costs of landscape simplification should be considered in design of land use policy that balances multiple ecosystem goods and services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover change caused by humans represents a major threat to the long term viability of natural areas. It is important to accurately classify and map existing natural areas so that this threat can be fully assessed within a given landscape. Availability of free orthorectified Landsat images through the U.S. Geological Survey provides a potentially valuable tool to evaluate human impacts to natural landscapes. We performed a supervised classification of multi-seasonal Landsat images to test the limits of using these images for mapping mixed landscapes at regional to local scales and to assess land cover changes within the Oak Openings region of Northwestern Ohio. Overall accuracy of our 15-class land cover map was 60% and 69% using traditional and fuzzy set analysis respectively. Overall map accuracy improved to 72% and 79% for traditional and fuzzy set analysis respectively using a more broadly defined 7-class land cover map. Accuracy of individual classes varied considerably, although classes made up of larger patches typically achieved greater accuracy. Human-dominated land cover classes currently occupy 73% of the Oak Openings region while < 3% of the region remains covered by native savannas, prairies, and barrens. Currently 10% of the region is permanently protected, including nearly all remnant savannas and wet prairies > 1 ha. Our findings highlight the utility of using Landsat images to evaluate mixed-use landscapes at regional scales but demonstrate the limitations of using these images at local scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study on the impact of regional land cover/land use and projected climatic changes on hydrologic cycles in upper Midwest U.S. It says that land cover data were utilized to drive variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model using observed meteorological forcing data and projected land cover data for 2030, driven through downscaled and bias-corrected projected future climate forcing. Results show an increased baseflow and annual surface runoff, and reduced evapotranspiration.

Riparian ecosystems are important elements in landscapes that often provide a disproportionately wide range of ecosystem services and conservation benefits. Their protection and restoration have been one of the top environmental management priorities across the US over the last several years. Despite the level of concern, visibility and management effort, little is known about trends in riparian habitats. Moreover, little is known about whether or not cumulative efforts to restore and protect riparian zones and floodplains are affecting the rates of riparian habitat change nationwide. To address these issues, we analyzed riparian land cover change between the early 1970s and the late 1990s/early 2000s using existing spatial data on hydrography and land cover. This included an analysis of land cover changes within 180 m riparian buffer zones, and at catchment scales, for 42,363 catchments across 63 ecoregions of the continental US. The total amount of forest and natural land cover (forests, shrublands, wetlands) in riparian buffers declined by 0.7 and 0.9%, respectively across the entire study period. Gains in grassland/shrubland accounted for the 0.2% lower percentage of total natural land cover loss relative to forests. Conversely, urban and developed land cover (urban, agriculture, and mechanically disturbed lands) increased by more than 1.3% within riparian buffers across the entire study period. Despite these changes, we documented an opposite trend of increasing proportions of natural and forest land cover in riparian buffers versus the catchment scale. We surmise that this trend might reflect a combination of natural recovery and cumulative efforts to protect riparian ecosystems across the US. However, existing models limit our ability to assess the impacts of these changes on specific ecosystem services. We discuss the implications of changes observed in this study on the sustainability of ecosystem services. We also recommend opportunties for future riparian change assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which evaluates the effect of urbanization on both global and regional climate in the U.S. It states that the research involves computation of the estimates of a reasonable average flux of sensible and latent heat for each of the different types of land-use categories including water, forest, and short vegetation. The research shows that urban land cover caused the largest proportionate sensible and latent heat fluxes during the winter of 1996.

Abstract: The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between ecological landscape structure and local development regulations over time. Comparison analysis was conducted between two areas that had similar pre-development ecological conditions but were developed under vastly different regulatory environments. The Woodlands (regulated to protect ecological condition) and the North Houston area (which followed traditional subdivision regulations) were examined at three different developmental time periods: pre-development, early development (after 10 years), and matured development (after 30 years). Aerial photos of each site from the three time periods were classified into forested and non-forested classes and the landscape structure was quantified with a number of landscape metrics related to fragmentation – an indicator of habitat degradation. Two factors, the ecological approach to landscape planning and the adoption of more restrictive landscape regulations and guidelines, are discussed on the premise that they exert influence in developing and maintaining the long-term sustainability of ecosystems. This study provides quantified landscape configuration and composition of the effects of development regulations on landscape structure. The ecologically planned community shows that a less fragmented forest pattern and more restrictive development guidelines result in more ecologically structured environments. Understanding how elements of local development regulations affect ecological landscape patterns is important for landscape architects, planners, and administrators because it can lead to better strategies for planning and designing sustainable communities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The exurbanization process, particularly rural residential development, is reducing the amount of roadless areas and remote habitat across the nation, with implications for biodiversity and ecosystem integrity of parks and protected areas. The need for connecting protected areas via existing habitat centers, or relatively undisturbed core areas, is greater than ever as exurbanization expands. Our objective was to make use of nationally available data sets on roads as well as information derived from satellite imagery, including impervious cover of the built environment and forest canopy density, to identify core habitat of the northeastern and mid-Atlantic USA. The identified core habitat areas, which covered 73,730 km2 across 1177 discrete units, were stratified in terms of land ownership and management, and then analyzed in a landscape context using connectivity metrics derived from graph theory. The connectivity analysis made use of a suitability surface, derived from the land cover information, which approximated the costs incurred by hypothetical animals traversing the landscape. We show that protected areas are frequently identified as core habitat but are typically isolated, albeit sometimes buffered by adjacent multi-use lands (such as state or national forests). Over one third of the core habitat we identified has no protection, and another 42% is subject to motorized recreation or timber extraction. We provide maps showing the relative importance of core habitat areas for potentially connecting existing protected areas, and also provide an example of the vulnerability of connectivity to projected future residential development around one greater park ecosystem. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Land cover change is one of the key driving forces for ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics. We present an approach for using sequential remotely sensed land cover observations and a biogeochemical model to estimate contemporary and future ecosystem carbon trends. We applied the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modelling System (GEMS) for the Laurentian Plains and Hills ecoregion in the northeastern United States for the period of 1975–2025. The land cover changes, especially forest stand-replacing events, were detected on 30 randomly located 10-km by 10-km sample blocks, and were assimilated by GEMS for biogeochemical simulations. In GEMS, each unique combination of major controlling variables (including land cover change history) forms a geo-referenced simulation unit. For a forest simulation unit, a Monte Carlo process is used to determine forest type, forest age, forest biomass, and soil C, based on the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and the U.S. General Soil Map (STATSGO) data. Ensemble simulations are performed for each simulation unit to incorporate input data uncertainty. Results show that on average forests of the Laurentian Plains and Hills ecoregion have been sequestrating 4.2Tg C (1teragram=1012 gram) per year, including 1.9Tg C removed from the ecosystem as the consequences of land cover change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We used an integrated modeling approach to simulate future land cover and predict the effects of future urban development and land cover on avian diversity in the Central Puget Sound region of Washington State, USA. We parameterized and applied a land cover change model (LCCM) that used output from a microsimulation model of urban development, UrbanSim, and biophysical site and landscape characteristics to simulate land cover 28 years into the future. We used 1991, 1995, and 1999 Landsat TM-derived land cover data and three different spatial partitions of our study area to develop six different estimations of the LCCM. We validated model simulations with 2002 land cover. We combined UrbanSim land use outputs and LCCM simulations to predict changes in avian species richness. Results indicate that landscape composition and configuration were important in explaining land cover change as well as avian species response to landscape change. Over the next 28 years, urban land cover was predicted to increase at the expense of agriculture and deciduous and mixed lowland forests. Land cover changes were predicted to reduce the total number of avian species, with losses primarily in native forest specialists and gains in common synanthropic species such as the American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos). The integrated modeling framework we present has potential applications in urban and natural resource planning and management and in assessing of the effects of policies on land development, land cover, and avian biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the presence of a forest transition – that is, a shift from net deforestation to net reforestation – in Vietnam during the 1990s, and describes its key attributes relevant for global environmental change issues. Using Fuzzy Kappa and other indicators, we compared forest cover estimates and spatial patterns from global and national land cover maps from the early and late 1990s, and compiled other available statistics for years before and after that period. This showed that a forest transition indeed occurred in Vietnam: the forest cover dropped to 25–31% of the country area in 1991–1993, and then increased to 32–37% in 1999–2001. The reforestation occurred at a higher rate than deforestation in the previous decades, and was due in similar proportions, to natural forest regeneration and to planted forests. The carbon stock in forests followed a similar transition, decreasing to 903 (770–1307) Tg C in 1991–1993, and then increasing to 1374 (1058–1744) Tg C in 2005. However, forest density declined during the same period, with an increasing proportion of young and degraded forests. The effects on habitats measured with landscape pattern indices were contrasted: in several regions, the reforestation decreased forest fragmentation, while in others, clearing of old-growth forests continued and/or forest fragmentation increased. This shows that a transition in forest area is not sufficient to rehabilitate the different ecosystem functions and services of forests. Other forest transitions exist in Tropical Asia and in Latin America. Knowledge about the causes, pattern and environmental impacts of the forest transition in Vietnam is therefore relevant to understand possible emerging regional trends that would have implications for global environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of post-classification change methods for the analysis of land cover change provides intuitive and potentially reliable results. A recurring problem is the difference in land cover nomenclature that can occur over time or across space when multiple data sources are required. Building on work that uses category semantics as a foundation for reasoning with land cover classes, this paper uses a fuzzy sets based approach to develop attribute based prototype definitions of land cover classes. These formalized category descriptions are used to look at land cover changes as a semantic change evaluated through semantic similarity metrics. The methodology is illustrated on the U.S. National Land Cover Data from 1992 to 2001 over Chester County, PA. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is more versatile than the standard post-classification method in that it can both provide an overall, spatially explicit evaluation of land cover change, as well as nuanced assessments of graded changes for heterogeneous land cover types. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Triggers of summertime convective rainfall depend on numerous interactions and feedbacks, often compounded by spatial variability in soil moisture and its impacts on vegetation function, vegetation composition, terrain, and all the complex turbulent entrainment processes near the capping inversion. To progress even within the most restricted and idealized framework, many of the governing processes must be simplified and parameterized. In this work, a zeroth-order representation of the dynamical processes that control convective rainfall triggers – namely land surface fluxes of heat and moisture – is proposed and used to develop a semianalytical model to explore how differential sensitivities of various ecosystems to soil moisture states modify convective rainfall triggers. The model is then applied to 4 years (2001–2004) of half-hourly precipitation, soil moisture, environmental, and eddy-covariance surface heat flux data collected at a mixed hardwood forest (HW), a maturing planted loblolly pine forest (PP), and an abandoned old field (OF) experiencing the same climatic and edaphic conditions. We found that the sensitivity of PP to soil moisture deficit enhances the trigger of convective rainfall relative to HW and OF, with enhancements of about 25% and 30% for dry moisture states, and 5% and 15% for moist soil moisture states, respectively. We discuss the broader implications of these findings on potential modulations of convective rainfall triggers induced by projected large-scale changes in timberland composition within the Southeastern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Urbanization has become the dominant form of landscape disturbance in parts of the United States. Small streams in the Piedmont region of the eastern United States support high densities of salamanders and are often the first habitats to be affected by landscape-altering factors such as urbanization. We used US Geological Survey land cover data from 1972 to 2000 and a relation between stream salamanders and land cover, established from recent research, to estimate the impact of contemporary land-cover change on the abundance of stream salamanders near Davidson, North Carolina, a Piedmont locale that has experienced rapid urbanization during this time. Our analysis indicates that southern two-lined salamander (Eurycea cirrigera) populations have decreased from 32% to 44% while northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) have decreased from 21% to 30% over the last three decades. Our results suggest that the widespread conversion of forest to urban land in small catchments has likely resulted in a substantial decline of populations of stream salamanders and could have serious effects on stream ecosystems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article reports that topographic maps are an accessible data source for land cover change research. Land cover change is a theme that crosscuts virtually all areas of geographic research and scholarship. This study describes an alternative and relatively inexpensive method for estimating land cover change using the United States Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps. The method is designed to be sufficiently accessible, inexpensive, and time-efficient to be taught in the classroom or undertaken by students working on individual projects. This method is grounded in the understanding that USGS topographic maps represent the standard for accurate, detailed land cover information on which many digital sources are based. Many countries have long produced topographic maps, but World War II saw the fruition of the most detailed and complete national topographic map series. Although the USGS had produced maps since its establishment in 1879, it was only in the late 1950s that the Survey began mapping the contiguous United States at a common scale.

Understanding the shifts over time in the distribution and amount of forest vegetation types in relation to forest management and environmental conditions is critical for many policy and ecological questions. Our objective was to assess the influences of ownership and environment on changes in forest vegetation from post-settlement historical to recent times in the central Coast Range of Oregon. We evaluated land cover types on 1475 20m plots, using scanned, geo-referenced historical (1939) and recent (1993) aerial photos. The amount of older conifer cover declined by 63% relative to its former amount, from 36 to 13% of the landscape, during the 54-year period. Dominant ownership of older conifer stands shifted from industrial private to Forest Service lands. Younger conifer stands showed the greatest expansion in cover, increasing more than two-fold, from 21 to 44% of the landscape. Shrub and hardwood cover declined by 16%, from 31 to 25% of the landscape. Shrubs and hardwoods occurred at lower slope positions and closer to streams at the end of the period than at the beginning. Ownership was not an important determinant of the presence of large and very large conifer cover or shrub and hardwood cover in 1939, but was a very important factor affecting the presence of these cover types in 1993. Landscape transitional pathways were distributed among many types and no single transitional pathway was dominant. Even the most stable cover types (hardwood trees and herbs) had low absolute stability, with over 65% of their plots changing to another cover type by 1993. Our research indicates that the importance of ownership as a factor affecting the type of vegetation cover present has increased greatly during this time, whereas the relative influence of environment has lessened considerably. Land owners in the Oregon Coast Range have altered the cover and distribution of vegetation in diverse ways, changing the landscape to one dominated by young conifers, shifting the distribution of younger successional shrubs and hardwoods toward streams, and restricting the location of older coniferous stands to particular ownerships and site types. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The objective of this paper is to review research conducted over the past decade on the application of multi-temporal remote sensing for monitoring changes of Arctic tundra lands. Emphasis is placed on results from the National Science Foundation Land–Air–Ice Interactions (LAII) program and on optical remote sensing techniques. Case studies demonstrate that ground-level sensors on stationary or moving track platforms and wide-swath imaging sensors on polar orbiting satellites are particularly useful for capturing optical remote sensing data at sufficient frequency to study tundra vegetation dynamics and changes for the cloud prone Arctic. Less frequent imaging with high spatial resolution instruments on aircraft and lower orbiting satellites enable more detailed analyses of land cover change and calibration/validation of coarser resolution observations.The strongest signals of ecosystem change detected thus far appear to correspond to expansion of tundra shrubs and changes in the amount and extent of thaw lakes and ponds. Changes in shrub cover and extent have been documented by modern repeat imaging that matches archived historical aerial photography. NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) time series provide a 20-year record for determining changes in greenness that relates to photosynthetic activity, net primary production, and growing season length. The strong contrast between land materials and surface waters enables changes in lake and pond extent to be readily measured and monitored. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Quantifying carbon dynamics over large areas is frequently hindered by the lack of consistent, high-quality, spatially explicit land use and land cover change databases and appropriate modeling techniques. In this paper, we present a generic approach to address some of these challenges. Land cover change information in the Southeastern Plains ecoregion was derived from Landsat data acquired in 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 within 11 randomly located 20-km × 20-km sample blocks. Carbon dynamics within each of the sample blocks was simulated using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), capable of assimilating the variances and covariance of major input variables into simulations using an ensemble approach. Results indicate that urban and forest areas have been increasing, whereas agricultural land has been decreasing since 1973. Forest clear-cutting activity has intensified, more than doubling from 1973 to 2000. The Southeastern Plains has been acting as a carbon sink since 1973, with an average rate of 0.89 Mg C/ha/yr. Biomass, soil organic carbon (SOC), and harvested materials account for 56%, 34%, and 10% of the sink, respectively. However, the sink has declined continuously during the same period owing to forest aging in the northern part of the ecoregion and increased forest clear-cutting activities in the south. The relative contributions to the sink from SOC and harvested materials have increased, implying that these components deserve more study in the future. The methods developed here can be used to quantify the impacts of human management activities on the carbon cycle at landscape to global scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This study developed high-resolution datasets of the area of maize, soybean and wheat cultivation in the United States for 1950, 1970 and 1992. The datasets were used to examine the relationship between individual crop cover and nutrient levels in rivers across the Mississippi River Basin. Location This study was conducted in the United States, with focus on the Mississippi River Basin. Methods County and state-level estimates of the planted area of maize, soybean and wheat were integrated with a satellite-derived pattern in total cropland to develop 5′ × 5′ resolution datasets of the fractional area of maize, soybean and wheat in the United States for 1950, 1970 and 1992. Regression analysis was used to determine the relationships between mean levels of nitrogen, phosphorous and silica in 25 rivers across the Mississippi Basin, and the extent of maize, soybean and wheat cultivation in the watersheds. Results The crop datasets provide a spatially explicit representation of the area of the three primary crops in 1950, 1970 and 1992. The datasets clearly depict the rapid expansion of soybean cultivation, the increased specialization of individual agricultural regions, and the accompanying reduction in agricultural biodiversity since 1950. The statistical analysis identified strong correlations between the extent of maize and soybean cover in a watershed and the level of nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) at the watershed outlet. In particular, the area of maize appears to be strongly related to the concentration of total-N and the ratio of dissolved inorganic-N and organic-N at the watershed outlet. Conclusions The intensification of cultivation of the three primary crops — maize, soybean and wheat — has altered land cover and water quality across the U.S. since 1950. The high present-day rate of fertilizer use on maize and the expansion of soybean cultivation could be largely responsible for the change in nutrient... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY 1. The effects of catchment urbanisation on water quality were examined for 30 streams (stratified into 15, 50 and 100 km2 ± 25% catchments) in the Etowah River basin, Georgia, U.S.A. We examined relationships between land cover (implying cover and use) in these catchments (e.g. urban, forest and agriculture) and macroinvertebrate assemblage attributes using several previously published indices to summarise macroinvertebrate response. Based on a priori predictions as to mechanisms of biotic impairment under changing land cover, additional measurements were made to assess geomorphology, hydrology and chemistry in each stream. 2. We found strong relationships between catchment land cover and stream biota. Taxon richness and other biotic indices that reflected good water quality were negatively related to urban land cover and positively related to forest land cover. Urban land cover alone explained 29–38% of the variation in some macroinvertebrate indices. Reduced water quality was detectable at c . >15% urban land cover. 3. Urban land cover correlated with a number of geomorphic variables such as stream bed sediment size (–) and total suspended solids (+) as well as a number of water chemistry variables including nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (+), specific conductance (+) and turbidity (+). Biotic indices were better predicted by these reach scale variables than single, catchment scale land cover variables. Multiple regression models explained 69% of variation in total taxon richness and 78% of the variation in the Invertebrate Community Index (ICI) using phi variability, specific conductance and depth, and riffle phi , specific conductance and phi variability, respectively. 4. Indirect ordination analysis was used to describe assemblage and functional group changes among sites and corroborate which environmental variables were most important in driving differences in macroinvertebrate assemblages. The first axis in a... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Evaluated impacts of land cover change on runoff responses across reference basins. • Significant trends in runoff coefficient (RC) linked with large land cover changes. • Each percent increase on grassland and shrubland to forest resulted ∼4% decrease in RC. • Runoff volume increased (decreased) in northern (southern) basins of the CONUS. Land cover change plays a critical role in influencing hydrological responses. Change in land cover has impacted runoff across basins with substantial human interference; however, the impacts in basins with minimal human interference have been studied less. In this study, we investigated the impacts of directional land cover changes (forest to/from combined grassland and shrubland) in runoff coefficient (RC; ratio of runoff to precipitation) and runoff volume across 603 low human interference reference basins in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The results indicate basins with significant (p <0.05) increasing trends in runoff and RC were across the northeast and northwest regions of CONUS, and basins with decreasing trends were in the southern CONUS region. A unit percent increase in basin area from grassland and shrubland to forest was associated with a ∼4% decrease in RC across basins with decreasing RC trends. Similarly, a unit percent increase in basin area from forest to a combined grassland and shrubland was associated with a ∼1% increase in RC across increasing RC trend basins. Runoff volume was decreased (increased) by ∼25 × 106 m3 yr−1 (∼9 × 106 m3 yr−1) across basins with decreasing (increasing) trends in runoff and RC. When relating runoff volume with the area of directional land cover changes, each 1 km2 increase in area from grassland and shrubland to forest resulted in a decrease of ∼530,000 m3 runoff volume across basins with decreasing trends. In contrast, each 1 km2 increase in area from forest to grassland and shrubland increased runoff volume by ∼200,000 m3 across increasing trend basins. Basins in the southern region of CONUS were more impacted by runoff parameters (RC and runoff volume) from directional land cover changes than basins in the northern region. The findings of this study are useful for planning and managing water availability for sustainable and adaptive water resources management at regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) is an operational land cover monitoring program providing updated land cover and related information for the United States at five-year intervals. NLCD2016 extends temporal coverage to 15 years (2001–2016). We collected land cover reference data for the 2011 and 2016 nominal dates to report land cover accuracy for the NLCD2016 database 2011 and 2016 land cover components at Level II and Level I and for Level I 2011–2016 land cover change using two definitions of agreement. For both the 2011 and 2016 land cover components, single-date Level II overall accuracies (OA) were 72% (standard error of ±0.9%) when agreement was defined as match between the map label and primary reference label only and 86% (± 0.7%) when agreement also included the alternate reference label. The corresponding level I OA for both dates were 79% (± 0.9%) and 91% (± 1.0%). The 2011–2016 user's and producer's accuracies (UA and PA) were ~ 75% for forest loss and PA for water loss, grassland loss, and grass gain were > 70% when agreement included a match between the map label and either the primary or alternate reference label. Depending on agreement definition and level of the classification hierarchy, OA for the 2011 land cover component of the NLCD2016 database was about 4% to 7% higher than OA for the 2011 land cover component of the NLCD2011 database, suggesting that the changes in mapping methodologies initiated for production of the NLCD2016 database have led to improved product quality. Additionally, we used the reference dataset collected for assessment of the NLCD2011 database to assess the 2001 and 2006 land cover components of the NLCD2016 database. OA for the 2001 and 2006 land cover components was 1% - 5% lower than OA for the 2011 and 2016 land cover components of the NLCD2016 database. Higher OA for 2011 and 2016 land cover components of the NLCD2016 database relative to OA for its 2001 and 2006 components may be attributable to differences in reference data quality. • Level II & I Overall accuracy (OA) of NLCD2016 land cover (LC) was 86.4% & 90.6%. • NLCD2016 database Level II 2011 LC OA improved by 5% over its prior release. • Forest loss user's Accuracies (UA) and producer's accuracies PA were 75%. • PA was >70% for 2011–2016 grassland loss, grassland gain, and water loss. • More research on reference data quality is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2016 provides a suite of data products, including land cover and land cover change of the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2016, at two- to three-year intervals. The development of this product is part of an effort to meet the growing demand for longer temporal duration and more frequent, accurate, and consistent land cover and change information. To accomplish this, we designed a new land cover strategy and developed comprehensive methods, models, and procedures for NLCD 2016 implementation. Major steps in the new procedures consist of data preparation, land cover change detection and classification, theme-based postprocessing, and final integration. Data preparation includes Landsat imagery selection, cloud detection, and cloud filling, as well as compilation and creation of more than 30 national-scale ancillary datasets. Land cover change detection includes single-date water and snow/ice detection algorithms and models, two-date multi-index integrated change detection models, and long-term multi-date change algorithms and models. The land cover classification includes seven-date training data creation and 14-run classifications. Pools of training data for change and no-change areas were created before classification based on integrated information from ancillary data, change-detection results, Landsat spectral and temporal information, and knowledge-based trajectory analysis. In postprocessing, comprehensive models for each land cover theme were developed in a hierarchical order to ensure the spatial and temporal coherence of land cover and land cover changes over 15 years. An initial accuracy assessment on four selected Landsat path/rows classified with this method indicates an overall accuracy of 82.0% at an Anderson Level II classification and 86.6% at the Anderson Level I classification after combining the primary and alternate reference labels. This methodology was used for the operational production of NLCD 2016 for the Conterminous United States, with final produced products available for free download. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of the hydrological effects of vegetation changes in theColumbia River basin over the last century was performed using two land cover scenarios. The first was a reconstruction of historical land cover vegetation, c. 1900, as estimated by the federal Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project (ICBEMP). The second was current land cover as estimated from remote sensing data for 1990. Simulations were performed using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model, applied at one-quarter degree spatial resolution (approximately 500 km2 grid cell area) using hydrometeorological data for a 10 year period starting in 1979, and the 1900 and current vegetation scenarios. The model represents surface hydrological fluxes and state variables, including snow accumulation and ablation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff production. Simulateddaily hydrographs of naturalized streamflow (reservoir effects removed) were aggregated to monthly totals and compared for nine selected sub-basins. The results show that, hydrologically, the most importantvegetation-related change has been a general tendency towards decreased vegetation maturity in the forested areas of the basin. This general trend represents a balance between the effects of logging and fire suppression. In those areas where forest maturity has been reduced as a result of logging, wintertime maximum snow accumulations, and hence snow available for runoff during the spring melt season, have tended to increase, and evapotranspiration has decreased. The reverse has occurred in areas where fire suppression has tended to increase vegetation maturity, although the logging effect appears to dominate formost of the sub-basins evaluated. Predicted streamflow changes were largest in the Mica and Corralin sub-basins in the northern and eastern headwaters region; in the Priest Rapids sub-basin, which drains the east slopes of the Cascade Mountains; and in the Ice Harbor sub-basin, [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]