1. Evaluating Large‐Storm Dominance in High‐Resolution GCMs and Observations Across the Western Contiguous United States.
- Author
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Bjarke, Nels R., Livneh, Ben, Barsugli, Joseph J., Pendergrass, Angeline G., and Small, Eric E.
- Subjects
GENERAL circulation model ,PRECIPITATION variability ,SOCIAL dominance ,STORMS ,ATMOSPHERIC models - Abstract
Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency across much of the land‐surface as the global climate warms, but such projections have typically relied on coarse‐resolution (100–250 km) general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble of HighResMIP GCMs presents an opportunity to evaluate how a more finely resolved atmosphere and land‐surface might enhance the fidelity of the simulated contribution of large‐magnitude storms to total precipitation, particularly across topographically complex terrain. Here, the simulation of large‐storm dominance, that is, the number of wettest days to reach half of the total annual precipitation, is quantified across the western United States (WUS) using four GCMs within the HighResMIP ensemble and their coarse resolution counterparts. Historical GCM simulations (1950–2014) are evaluated against a baseline generated from station‐observed daily precipitation (4,803 GHCN‐D stations) and from three gridded, observationally based precipitation data sets that are coarsened to match the resolution of the GCMs. All coarse‐resolution simulations produce less large‐storm dominance than in observations across the WUS. For two of the four GCMs, bias in the median large‐storm dominance is reduced in the HighResMIP simulation, decreasing by as much as 62% in the intermountain west region. However, the other GCMs show little change or even an increase (+28%) in bias of median large‐storm dominance across multiple sub‐regions. The spread in differences with resolution amongst GCMs suggests that, in addition to resolution, model structure and parameterization of precipitation generating processes also contribute to bias in simulated large‐storm dominance. Plain Language Summary: As global temperatures rise, there's growing concern about an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, projections of future changes to large‐magnitude precipitation events often rely on coarse‐resolution models which simulate meteorology on a spatial scale larger than most storms. To address this, we explored the potential of higher resolution models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project HighResMIP ensemble to improve the fidelity of simulated precipitation variability across the western United States. We compared four HighResMIP models with their coarse‐resolution counterparts from 1950 to 2014 and found that coarse‐resolution models consistently underestimated the dominance of large storms compared to observed data. While some HighResMIP models showed improvement, others remained unchanged or even showed increased bias. This suggests that besides spatial resolution alone, factors like model structure and numerical representation of fine scale precipitation processes play a role in accurately simulating intense storms. These findings highlight the importance of considering both resolution and climate model structure in predicting future extreme precipitation events, especially in regions where precipitation is generated by processes that operate on a wide range of spatial scales. Key Points: Increasing spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) does not consistently improve simulation of large‐storm dominance across the western United StatesCoarse resolution GCMs simulate large‐storm dominance well in regions where the largest daily precipitation events are due to synoptic scale precipitationModel structure and parameterization of precipitation generation appear to be equally as important as resolution in the simulation of large‐storm dominance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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