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Increasing numbers of recent college graduates are ending up in relatively low-skilled jobs that, historically, have gone to those with lower levels of educational attainment. This study examines this phenomenon in some detail, concluding: (1) About 48 percent of employed U.S. college graduates are in jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggests requires less than a four-year college education; (2) The proportion of overeducated workers in occupations appears to have grown substantially; in 1970, fewer than one percent of taxi drivers and two percent of firefighters had college degrees, while now more than 15 percent do in both jobs; (3) About five million college graduates are in jobs the BLS says require less than a high-school education; (4) Comparing average college and high-school earnings is highly misleading as a guide for vocational success, given high college-dropout rates and the fact that overproduction of college graduates lowers recent graduate earnings relative to those graduating earlier; (5) Not all colleges are equal: Typical graduates of elite private schools make more than graduates of flagship state universities, but those graduates do much better than those attending relatively non-selective institutions; (6) Not all majors are equal: Engineering and economics graduates, for example, typically earn almost double what social work and education graduates receive by mid-career; (7) Past and projected future growth in college enrollments and the number of graduates exceeds the actual or projected growth in high-skilled jobs, explaining the development of the underemployment problem and its probable worsening in future years; and (8) Rising college costs and perceived declines in economic benefits may well lead to declining enrollments and market share for traditional schools and the development of new methods of certifying occupation competence. (Contains 12 figures, 4 tables, and 65 notes.) [This paper was written with the assistance of Anthony Hennen, Harrison Cummins, Daniel Garrett, Joseph Hartge, and Nicholas Wetzel.]

The U.S. workforce has undergone significant changes in the past few decades. Increasingly sophisticated technology, changes in the structure of the economy and the growing global marketplace have resulted in employers putting a higher premium than ever on educated workers. Much has been said about the importance of increasing the labor supply for "middle skills jobs," or those jobs that now (compared to decades past) require more than a high school education but less than a bachelor's degree (e.g., associate degree, postsecondary certificate, apprenticeship, etc.). In the past few years, floods of research reports and analyses have explored the growth, demographics, characteristics and importance of middle skills jobs in the United States. This paper seeks to summarize and synthesize that research to help policymakers and advocates understand the research base and its connection to college- and career-ready reforms. If today's students are going to be able to access middle and high skills jobs, they need to graduate from high school with the core knowledge and skills that will prepare them for success in postsecondary education and training--and for success in the careers of their choice. Specifically the paper includes sections on: (1) The Future of the U.S. Workforce; (2) The Mismatch between Workers' Skills, Education Levels and Job Requirements; (3) Many Paths to Education for Middle Skills Jobs; and (4) Middle Skills Jobs and Access to Middle Class Jobs. (Contains 2 figures, 3 tables, and 72 endnotes.)

The United States has been underproducing college-going workers since 1980. Supply has failed to keep pace with growing demand, and as a result, income inequality has grown precipitously. From 1915 to 1980, supply grew in tandem with demand. But, starting in 1990, the share of college-educated young people in the workforce rose very slowly. If the nation continues to underproduce college-educated workers, the large and growing gap between the earnings of Americans of different educational attainment will grow even wider. This paper suggests that adding an additional 20 million postsecondary-educated workers over the course of the next 15 years will make the nation's level of educational attainment comparable with other developed nations, help meet the economy's need for efficiency, and reverse the growth of income inequality. [For the full report, "The Undereducated American," see ED524302.]

The secular increase over the past several decades in the number of families where both the husband and wife work in the paid labor force, coupled with the surge in labor force participation of single mothers in the 1990s, has heightened policy focus on child care options for working parents; federal and state governments are now major players in the provision of child care in the United States. The purpose of this report is to provide a selective survey of the literature on the economic consequences of child care for recipient families, and to relate the results to families residing in Kentucky using data from the Annual Social and Economic Study in the Current Population Survey. The survey is selective both because of its exclusive focus on child care research by economists and because the literature is vast even within economics such that only articles deemed to be important contributions to the labor supply and child care literature are included. The literature review reveals that in the domain of child care the economics profession has focused primarily on the labor-market consequences of child care subsidies, particularly the effect of subsidies on the decision to work, on total hours of work conditional on being employed, on hourly wages, and on whether to use formal child care. There is less extensive evidence on the effects of child care subsidies on welfare participation, on school attendance, and job satisfaction, and no direct evidence on the issue of the anti-poverty effectiveness of child care subsidies. Most of the papers reviewed contain estimated elasticities of employment with respect to the price of child care, indicating labor-market participation responsiveness to any given change in the price of child care. (Contains 11 footnotes and 5 tables.) [Additional financial support for this report was provided by the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services.]

The U.S. labor market for new graduates of two- and four-year colleges was studied to determine the impact of the large increase in output of graduates that occurred in the 1950s and 1960s. The study was based primarily on published research evidence and available statistical material, supplemented by a small number of interviews with experts in the United States and United Kingdom. It was discovered that, although the economic returns of a college education and growth rate of starting salaries have declined since the early 1970s, the advantages of a college degree remain substantial in terms of relative earnings, higher labor force participation rates, lower unemployment rates, and better access to higher-level occupations. The following were among the study findings identified as being particularly relevant for the United Kingdom: (1) despite the increase in the number of new graduates in the United States, higher education remains greatly valued; (2) employers are attaching increased importance to work experience when recruiting graduates and are looking for a range of personal and core skills in applicants; and (3) the concept of continuing education, whereby education is viewed as a lifelong process, is becoming increasingly prevalent. (Contains 40 tables/figures and 174 references.) (MN)

Employers need a pipeline of quality workers with different levels of skill and desired earnings. Almost half of U.S. jobs today can be defined as "middle skill" jobs, requiring less than a four-year degree but more than a high school diploma. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) occupational projections indicate that job categories for which the associate's degree is the most significant source of education and training will grow 19 percent through 2018, faster than any other job category. The labor market for these jobs is regional, not national. Workers seeking middle-skill positions tend to be less mobile than more highly educated jobseekers. In fact, between 60 percent and 70 percent of Americans spend most of their working life in the state where they were born and between 45 percent and 55 percent stay in their metro region of origin. These trends place renewed priority on the performance and potential of community colleges, the primary postsecondary institution serving local and regional workforce needs. These institutions are critically important to individuals seeking higher skills and to employers looking for qualified workers. States that fail to align their community college goals with economic development efforts to address their human capital challenges run the risk of losing out in the competition for good jobs and sustainable development. This brief describes the challenge that states face in aligning workforce and economic development strategies, and recommends a set of practical steps state leaders can take to bridge their community college and economic development agendas and advance economic recovery and long-term growth. (Contains 35 endnotes.) [Additional support for this paper was provided by the F.B. Heron Foundation, and the Metropolitan Leadership Council.]

Data on the characteristics and labor market experiences of illegal aliens in the U.S. work force were collected by voluntary interviews with 793 apprehended illegal immigrants who had worked at least two weeks in the U.S. From the resulting diverse collection of case histories, it was concluded that (1) illegal workers in the U.S. are likely to be disadvantaged persons with little education and few skills and employed in low-level jobs (Most reported employment as the primary motive for migration and sent an average of $105 a month to their homeland to help support an average of 4.6 people); and (2) since illegal workers are successful in finding low-level jobs due to work experience in their own countries, and appear to be highly motivated and productive, an increasing supply of illegal aliens is likely to depress the educational and skill level of the workforce, depress labor standards in the secondary sector, cause displacement of low-skill legal resident workers, and create a new class of disadvantaged workers. Data are provided for the survey respondents on demographic characteristics, work experience, backhome socioeconomic conditions, reasons for migration, and on their contact with various governmental systems. U.S. immigration policy and practices are discussed, as well as the role and impact of illegals on the U.S. labor market. Appended to the report are results of another survey of illegal immigrants and the interview schedule. (NJ)

This last of a three-volume report of a study done to assess the feasibility of large-scale, countercyclical public job creation covers the findings regarding the priorities among projects, indirect employment effects, skill imbalances, and administrative issues; and summarizes the overall findings, conclusions, and recommendations. (Volume 1, comprised of the report's first chapter, overviews and summarizes the entire study. The second volume, containing the second chapter, covers the methods and the findings with respect to activities, their job-creation potential, and related characteristics.) The content covers the last six chapters in the report. Chapter 3 on establishing priorities among activity areas covers unmet needs, program choices, and a multidimensional approach to program priorities. Focus of the fourth chapter is on estimating the overall employment effect of public service employment programs, including an overview of the model (estimating offsite employment changes and accounting for the effects of fiscal substitution) and a defining of activity clusters. Chapter 5 discusses the methods and findings regarding the supply of skills available for newly created public jobs, while the sixth chapter assesses the potential for skill imbalances. Chapter 7 discusses seven administrative and operational issues in implementing public job-creation programs. The final chapter summarizes the overall findings, conclusions, and policy recommendations. (EM)

To provide a general picture of how the private dental office personnel picture is expected to evolve under particular assumptions, this report presents the projections of the national supply and requirements for dentists for 1980, 1985, and 1990. General implications for dental auxiliary personnel are also discussed. Factors determining the demand and supply of dental services, which include past demand, population growth, economic growth, dental insurance coverage, and technological progress, are analyzed along with developing trends in dentistry and their anticipated effects on supply and demand. Areas identified for needed additional research include dental prepayment and fluoridation. A fifty-six-page appendix describes in detail the supply-demand forecast model used and examines past and developing trends which affect dental supply and demand relationships: engineering advances, organizational change in dentistry, prevention of dental disease, and third-party payment. (BL)

This report surveys the research done using the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) of Labor Market Experience data. It also identifies neglected research opportunities and directions of future research. The content is presented in eleven sections. The focus of sections 2-8 is on research done in major areas of labor market research. The sections are as follow: 2, Labor Supply, covering female labor supply and fertility expectations, child care and welfare, marital instability, and male labor supply; Labor Demand which discusses dual and segmented labor markets, racial discrimination in the labor market, sex discrimination in labor market, unionization and labor market differentials, and labor demand and structural factors; 4 Human Capital and Status Attainment Models, covering human capital, sociology of education, and status attainment; Unemployment Job Separation and Job Search; Social Psychological Factors; Aging; and Methodological Research Using NLS data. Section 9 discusses the utilization of the NLS data, while 10 focuses on some neglected considerations regarding this data. Finally, the last section covers future research with the NLS data. A comprehensive list of references is attached. (EM)

This paper's overiew of the relationship between vocational education and productivity includes the presentation of results from a multiple regression analysis of vocational education enrollments and various productivity indices. This tentative analysis contributes additional observations to the studies reviewed and offers pertinent suggestions about ways of increasing productivity in the United States. Discussions of topics related to policy also are included: the mix and length of programs, ways to share the costs of training, issues related to efficiency and equity, and vocational education's role in reducing unemployment and creating jobs. Needs related to data collection, the effects of emerging technologies, and developing trends also are discussed. The study suggests that improvement in American productivity will take an investment in time and money by management and labor; that vocational education needs to develop a more flexible delivery system--one better able to shift resources when demand shifts; and, to that effect, the vocational education system must play a part in the diagnosis of productivity problems as well as in creating their solutions. (KC)

In anticipation of the projected decline in the national population of young men and of expanding the role of women in the military, the Navy conducted a national telephone survey to gauge the interest of women and men in joining the military under present conditions and under three alternative options. The options related to expanding the role of women in terms of the physical location (ships, aricraft, combat zones) and nontraditional job classifications (mechanics, electronics) where they are likely to serve. Of those surveyed, 14 percent of the women and 16 percent of the men responded that they were "extremely,""very," or "quite" interested under current conditions. The Air Force was the military branch most preferred by both men and women, followed by the Navy, Army, and Marine Corps. The interest level of women in joining the military increased when an option involving training and service in nontraditional jobs for women was presented. When a similar option involving service on some ships, aircraft, or combat support areas was offered, interest declined but did not fall below interest levels under current conditions. A third option involving equal treatment to that received by men resulted in responses similar to those of the second option. The survey of men indicated increased interest in joining the military when the likelihood of serving with women was presented. (Author/LMS)

This monograph outlines public policy responses to deal with the effects of forced worklife changes fashioned by government in the United States, Japan, and Western European countries. From the Morrill Act of 1862, through New Deal policy initiatives and on to the "active" manpower policies operating in Europe, the record of government programs and the economic theories underlying them are surveyed and assessed. Special attention is given in this review to the identification of the role assigned education and training as a work-life adjustment mechanism. The account traces the enduring tension in public policy responses between adjustment to change (epitomized by the education and training approach) and resistance to change in the American workplace. A case is presented for the fuller development of countercyclical education and training policy incorporating relevant and useful elements of the European experience. Such a policy would call for programs which would expand public education and training opportunities during business cycle downswings or other planned-for slack periods in the labor market, as in the 1980 case of a planned recession. Through such expanded education and training opportunities, the stock of workforce skills and worker mobility would be preserved and enhanced. Such a policy stands in sharp contrast to present policy and practice in the United States, in which both public and private education and training activity diminishes during economic downswings. How countercyclical programs are designed and financed abroad and could be structured in the U.S. are discussed. (KC)

Past and current impacts of the supply of foreign medical graduates (FMGs) on the total physician supply and on the availability of physician services are reviewed, and the possible future role of FMGs is forecasted. The relationship of the levels and changes in FMG supply to legislative decisions of the past three decades is also addressed, with attention to post-World War II legislation, the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, legislative changes in the mid-1970s, the Health Professions Educational Assistance Act of 1976, and recent legislation. The numerical impact of FMGs on specialty distribution, activity distribution, and practice location is analyzed, and information is provided on the performance of FMGs on standard qualification examinations. The activity and specialty patterns and practice locations of U.S. citizen FMGs are also assessed. Over the 1970-1979 period, FMGs constituted about one-fifth of the annual active physician supply, but accounted for one-third of the growth in physician supply. It is estimated that the FMG supply will grow at a slower rate in the future than in the past: by about 35% between 1981 and the year 2000, with most of the growth occurring in the early years of the period as a result of the return of U.S. FMGs to the United States. (SW)

According to the 22nd annual survey of entering freshmen in the United States, freshman interest in teaching careers has increased by more than two-thirds since 1982. However, this level of interest still falls short of the projected demand. The 1987 data also suggest potential problems with future supplies of certain technology and health care professionals. Interest in nursing among freshman women has fallen by more than half in 4 years, to 4%. Engineering and technology continue to show sharp declines among both sexes, although interest is higher now among women than 10 years ago. Freshman interest in engineering has fallen by more than a fourth since 1982, and in computing by more than two-thirds in the same period. Among freshman women, the career preference for medicine almost equals the interest in nursing. Business continues to be the most preferred career among freshmen, and being financially well off is one of the top personal life goals. Among political preferences, "middle-of-the-road" is still the largest category among freshmen, although they strongly endorse a number of traditionally liberal issues. The 1987 data also suggest that freshman participation in government aid programs may have stabilized after six years of steady decline. An American Council on Education press release on this report is attached. (KM)

This report discusses population trends abroad and their relation to immigration pressures and policies in the United States. The following sections are included: (1) "Two Major Waves of Immigration"; (2) "The U.S.--A Major Host Nation for Permanent Immigrants"; (3) "Changing Sources of Immigrants to the United States"; (4) "Current and Future Migrant Streams"; (5) "The Rise of Illegal Immigration to the United States"; (6) "Characteristics of the Top Immigrant Sending Countries"; (7) "The Pace of World Population Growth"; (8) "Age Structure's Influence on Migration"; (9) "World Labor Force Growth"; (10) "Labor Force Growth vs. Job Creation--a Case Study of Mexico; (11) "Rapid Urbanization--Further Spur to Immigration; (12) "New Immigrants to the U.S.--Where They Settle, How They Are Doing"; (13) "The Mismatch Between New U.S. Jobs and Immigrant Workers; (14) "Education and Immigration--The Case of California"; (15) "Immigration Policy and U.S. Population Size"; and (16) "U.S. Resources for Population Stabilization and Third World Development." Twenty-nine figures and two tables are included. (JS)