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Objective: The number of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis is increasing, leading to a rising risk of complications and death. Prognostic stratification in patients with early-stage cirrhosis is still challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a clinically useful prognostic index based on genomic and clinical variables to identify patients at high risk of disease progression., Design: We developed a prognostic index, comprised of a 186-gene signature validated in our previous genome-wide profiling study, bilirubin (>1 mg/dL) and platelet count (<100,000/mm(3)), in an Italian HCV cirrhosis cohort (training cohort, n=216, median follow-up 10 years). The gene signature test was implemented using a digital transcript counting (nCounter) assay specifically developed for clinical use and the prognostic index was evaluated using archived specimens from an independent cohort of HCV-related cirrhosis in the USA (validation cohort, n=145, median follow-up 8 years)., Results: In the training cohort, the prognostic index was associated with hepatic decompensation (HR=2.71, p=0.003), overall death (HR=6.00, p<0.001), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR=3.31, p=0.001) and progression of Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (HR=6.70, p<0.001). The patients in the validation cohort were stratified into high-risk (16%), intermediate-risk (42%) or low-risk (42%) groups by the prognostic index. The high-risk group had a significantly increased risk of hepatic decompensation (HR=7.36, p<0.001), overall death (HR=3.57, p=0.002), liver-related death (HR=6.49, p<0.001) and all liver-related adverse events (HR=4.98, p<0.001)., Conclusions: A genomic and clinical prognostic index readily available for clinical use was successfully validated, warranting further clinical evaluation for prognostic prediction and clinical trial stratification and enrichment for preventive interventions., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Background & Aims: In approximately 70% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated by resection or ablation, disease recurs within 5 years. Although gene expression signatures have been associated with outcome, there is no method to predict recurrence based on combined clinical, pathology, and genomic data (from tumor and cirrhotic tissue). We evaluated gene expression signatures associated with outcome in a large cohort of patients with early stage (Barcelona-Clinic Liver Cancer 0/A), single-nodule HCC and heterogeneity of signatures within tumor tissues., Methods: We assessed 287 HCC patients undergoing resection and tested genome-wide expression platforms using tumor (n = 287) and adjacent nontumor, cirrhotic tissue (n = 226). We evaluated gene expression signatures with reported prognostic ability generated from tumor or cirrhotic tissue in 18 and 4 reports, respectively. In 15 additional patients, we profiled samples from the center and periphery of the tumor, to determine stability of signatures. Data analysis included Cox modeling and random survival forests to identify independent predictors of tumor recurrence., Results: Gene expression signatures that were associated with aggressive HCC were clustered, as well as those associated with tumors of progenitor cell origin and those from nontumor, adjacent, cirrhotic tissues. On multivariate analysis, the tumor-associated signature G3-proliferation (hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; P = .003) and an adjacent poor-survival signature (HR, 1.74; P = .004) were independent predictors of HCC recurrence, along with satellites (HR, 1.66; P = .04). Samples from different sites in the same tumor nodule were reproducibly classified., Conclusions: We developed a composite prognostic model for HCC recurrence, based on gene expression patterns in tumor and adjacent tissues. These signatures predict early and overall recurrence in patients with HCC, and complement findings from clinical and pathology analyses., (Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)