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Background: Lung cancer risk is modified by smoking cessation. However, the inclusion in the group of former smokers of those who quit after developing symptoms or being diagnosed with lung cancer distorts the apparent risk in the first several years following cessation. This bias is termed the quitting ill effect., Methods: Lung cancer mortality data from the American Cancer Society's CPS-I were used to calculate the excess mortality among white male former smokers compared to the predicted risk had those individuals continued to smoke. Alternate approaches to minimizing the quitting ill bias were investigated. Goodness-of-fit of the models was assessed graphically and formally., Results: Poisson models were built for the absolute lung cancer risk for never smokers and the excess risk, over never smokers, for continuing smokers. The decrease in excess risk in former smokers was modeled by a negative exponential function. The models for the three smoker subgroups (continuing, never, and former), all fit the data well. Assuming that the fraction of excess risk remaining for former smokers does not decline for the first two years following cessation and that the quitting ill effect does not influence those who are five or more years post-cessation allowed a reasonable estimation of the change in risk of lung cancer with increasing duration of abstinence., Conclusions: The reduction in the excess risk of lung cancer in former smokers can be estimated, and the quitting ill effect minimized, by the inclusion of a lag between cessation and onset of reduction in risk.

Objectives: Models previously developed for predicting lung cancer mortality from cigarette smoking intensity and duration based on aggregated prospective mortality data have employed a study of British doctors and have assumed a uniform age of initiation of smoking. We reexamined these models using the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study I data that include a range of ages of initiation to assess the importance of an additional term for age., Methods: Model parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood, and model fit was assessed by residual analysis, likelihood ratio tests, and chi(2) goodness-of-fit tests., Results: Examination of the residuals of a model proposed by Doll and Peto with the Cancer Prevention Study I data suggested that a better fitting model might be obtained by including an additional term specifying the ages when smoking exposure occurred. An extended model with terms for cigarettes smoked per day, duration of smoking, and attained age was found to fit statistically significantly better than the Doll and Peto model (P < 0.001) and to fit well in an absolute sense (goodness-of-fit; P = 0.34). Finally, a model proposed by Moolgavkar was examined and found not to fit as well as the extended model, although it included similar terms (goodness-of-fit; P = 0.007)., Conclusions: The addition of age, or another measure of the timing of the exposure to smoking, improves the prediction of lung cancer mortality with Doll and Peto's multiplicative power model.

Since the Persian Gulf War ended in 1991, veterans have reported diverse, unexplained symptoms. Some have wondered if their development of systemic lupus erythematosus, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or fibromyalgia might be related to Gulf War service. The authors used Cox proportional hazard modeling to determine whether regular, active-duty service personnel deployed to the Persian Gulf War (n = 551,841) were at increased risk of postwar hospitalization with the three conditions compared with nondeployed Gulf War era service personnel (n = 1,478,704). All hospitalizations in Department of Defense facilities from October 1, 1988, through July 31, 1997, were examined. With removal of personnel diagnosed with any of the three diseases before August 1, 1991, and adjustment for multiple covariates, Gulf War veterans were not at increased risk of postwar hospitalization due to systemic lupus erythematosus (risk ratio (RR) = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65, 1.35). Because of the small number of cases and wide confidence limits, the data regarding amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were inconclusive. Gulf War veterans were slightly at risk of postwar hospitalization for fibromyalgia (RR = 1.23, 95% Cl: 1.05, 1.43); however, this risk difference was probably due to the Gulf War veteran clinical evaluation program beginning in 1994. These data do not support Gulf War service and disease associations.

A previous epidemiologic study demonstrated no unexplained increase in risk for postwar hospitalization among Gulf War veterans who had remained on active duty. The authors sought to expand this study to include Reserve and separated military personnel. They examined hospitalization data from the Department of Defense, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), and the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development hospital systems for the years 1991-1994. Since denominator data were not available, the authors compared the proportional morbidity ratios (PMRs) of hospitalization discharge diagnoses (both large categories and specific diagnoses) between Gulf War veterans and other veterans of the same era. There were no indications that Gulf War veterans were suffering increased PMRs for infectious diseases; neoplasms; endocrine diseases; blood diseases; skin conditions; or diseases of the nervous system, circulatory system, or musculoskeletal system. However, these veterans did experience proportionally more hospitalizations for various specific diagnoses, namely, fractures and bone and soft-tissue injuries (Department of Defense and California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development), various diseases of the respiratory (including asthma) and digestive systems (VA), and diverse symptom diagnoses (VA). While these findings may be influenced by chance or by a number of potential confounders, including health registry participation, they merit further examination using other study designs.

Effects of Persian Gulf War (August 2, 1990-July 31, 1991) and Gulf War occupation on post-War hospitalization risk were evaluated through Cox proportional hazards modeling. Active-duty men (n = 1,775,236) and women (n = 209,760) in the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps had 30,539 initial postwar hospitalizations for mental disorders between June 1, 1991 and September 30, 1993. Principal diagnoses in the Defense Manpower Data Center hospitalization database were grouped into 10 categories of ICD-9-CM codes. Gulf War service was associated with significantly greater risk for acute reactions to stress and lower risk for personality disorders and adjustment reactions among men. Personnel who served in ground war support occupations (men and women) were at greater risk for postwar drug-related disorders. Men who served in ground war combat occupations were at higher risk for alcohol-related disorders. Longitudinal studies of health, hospitalization, and exposure beginning at recruitment, are needed to better understand how exposure to combat affects the mental health of military personnel.

Using Department of Defense hospital data, the authors examined the postwar hospitalization experience from March 1991 through September 1995 of US Gulf War veterans who were near Khamisiyah, Iraq, during nerve agent munition destruction in March 1991. Multiple sources of meteorologic, munition, and toxicology data were used to circumscribe geographic areas of low level, vaporized nerve agent for 4 days after the destruction. Plume estimates were overlaid on military unit positions, and exposure was estimated for the 349,291 US Army Gulf War veterans. Exposure was classified as not exposed (n = 224,804), uncertain low dose exposure (n = 75,717), and specific estimated subclinical exposure (n = 48,770) categorized into three groups for dose-response evaluation. Using Cox proportional hazard modeling, the authors compared the postwar experiences of these exposure groups for hospitalization due to any cause, for diagnoses in 15 unique categories, and for specific diagnoses an expert panel proposed as most likely to reflect latent disease from such subclinical exposure. There was little evidence that veterans possibly exposed to the nerve agent plumes experienced unusual postwar morbidity. While there were several differences in hospitalization risk, none of the models suggested a dose-response relation or neurologic sequelae. These data, having a number of limitations, do not support the hypothesis that Gulf War veterans are suffering postwar morbidity from subclinical nerve agent exposure.

Since the Persian Gulf War ended in 1991, many veterans have sought medical evaluation in the Department of Veterans Affairs Persian Gulf Veterans' Health Registry (VA registry) or the Department of Defense's Comprehensive Clinical Evaluation Program (DoD registry). Using combined data collected from 1993 to 1997 from the VA and DoD registries, the authors compared the characteristics of registry participants (n=74,653) with those of all Gulf War veterans (n=696,531) to determine the personnel most likely to seek medical evaluation. Using multiple logistic regression, the authors found that service branch and type were strongly associated with registry participation, with Army (adjusted odds ratio (OR)=4.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.6-4.9) and National Guard (OR=2.6, 95% CI 2.5-2.6) personnel at highest odds compared with reference category personnel. Registry participants also were more likely to have been stationed in the Gulf War theater during the fighting (OR=2.2), to be older (>31 years/<22 years OR=2.1), to have been an enlisted person (OR=2.0), to have been construction workers (OR=1.3), to be female (OR=1.3), and to have been hospitalized during the 12-month period before the war (OR=1.2). These findings are useful in generating hypotheses regarding postwar morbidity. They also suggest that subpopulations of Gulf War veterans have a higher prevalence of symptoms and merit further study.

Persian Gulf War veterans have reported a variety of symptoms, many of which have not led to conventional diagnoses. We ascertained all active-duty U.S. military personnel deployed to the Persian Gulf War (552,111) and all Gulf War era military personnel not deployed (1,479,751) and compared their postwar hospitalization records (until 1 April 1996) for one or more of 77 diagnoses under the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) system. The diagnoses were assembled by the Emerging Infections Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and are here termed "unexplained illnesses." Deployed veterans were found to have a slightly higher risk of hospitalization for unexplained illness than the nondeployed. Most of the excess hospitalizations for the deployed were due to the diagnosis "illness of unknown cause" (ICD-9 code 799.9), and most occurred in participants of the Comprehensive Clinical Evaluation Program who were admitted for evaluation only. When the effect of participation in this program was removed, the deployed had a slightly lower risk than the nondeployed. These findings suggest that active-duty Gulf War veterans did not have excess unexplained illnesses resulting in hospitalization in the 4.67-year period following deployment.

Background: Since the Persian Gulf War ended in 1991, many veterans of that conflict have reported diverse, unexplained symptoms. To evaluate the health of Gulf War veterans, we studied their postwar hospitalization experience and compared it with that of other military personnel serving at the same time who did not go to the Persian Gulf., Methods: Using a retrospective cohort approach and data from Department of Defense hospitals, we studied hospitalizations of 547,076 veterans of the Gulf War who were serving in the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force and 618,335 other veterans from the same era who did not serve in the Persian Gulf. Using multivariate logistic-regression models, we analyzed risk factors for hospitalization both overall and in 14 broad diagnostic categories during three periods from August 1991 through September 1993 (a total of 45 specific comparisons)., Results: After the war, the overall odds ratio for hospitalization of the Gulf War veterans was not higher than that of the other veterans, even after adjustment for selection effects related to deployment. In 16 of the 42 comparisons involving specific diagnoses, the risk of hospitalization among Gulf War veterans differed significantly from that among other veterans. Among these 16 comparisons, Gulf War veterans were at higher risk in 5: neoplasms (largely benign) during 1991, diseases of the genitourinary system during 1991, diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs (mostly forms of anemia) during 1992, and mental disorders during both 1992 and 1993. The differences were not consistent over time and could be accounted for by deferred care, postwar pregnancies, and postwar stress., Conclusions: During the two years after the Persian Gulf War, there was no excess of unexplained hospitalization among Americans who remained on active duty after serving in that conflict.