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In a retrospective, ecological analysis of US medical claims, visit rates explained more of the geographic variation in outpatient antibiotic prescribing rates than per-visit prescribing. Efforts to reduce antibiotic use may benefit from addressing the factors that drive higher rates of outpatient visits, in addition to continued focus on stewardship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since common diagnostic tests for gonorrhea do not provide information about susceptibility to antibiotics, treatment of gonorrhea remains empiric. Antibiotics used for empiric therapy are usually changed once resistance prevalence exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., 5%). A low switch threshold is intended to increase the probability that an infection is successfully treated with the first-line antibiotic, but it could also increase the pace at which recommendations are switched to newer antibiotics. Little is known about the impact of changing the switch threshold on the incidence of gonorrhea, the rate of treatment failure, and the overall cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with gonorrhea. Methods and findings: We developed a transmission model of gonococcal infection with multiple resistant strains to project gonorrhea-associated costs and loss in QALYs under different switch thresholds among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. We accounted for the costs and disutilities associated with symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, and sequelae, and combined costs and QALYs in a measure of net health benefit (NHB). Our results suggest that under a scenario where 3 antibiotics are available over the next 50 years (2 suitable for the first-line therapy of gonorrhea and 1 suitable only for the retreatment of resistant infections), changing the switch threshold between 1% and 10% does not meaningfully impact the annual number of gonorrhea cases, total costs, or total QALY losses associated with gonorrhea. However, if a new antibiotic is to become available in the future, choosing a lower switch threshold could improve the population NHB. If in addition, drug-susceptibility testing (DST) is available to inform retreatment regimens after unsuccessful first-line therapy, setting the switch threshold at 1% to 2% is expected to maximize the population NHB. A limitation of our study is that our analysis only focuses on the MSM population and does not consider the influence of interventions such as vaccine and common use of rapid drugs susceptibility tests to inform first-line therapy. Conclusions: Changing the switch threshold for first-line antibiotics may not substantially change the health and financial outcomes associated with gonorrhea. However, the switch threshold could be reduced when newer antibiotics are expected to become available soon or when in addition to future novel antibiotics, DST is also available to inform retreatment regimens. Using a mathematical model of gonococcal infection, Xuecheng Yin and co-authors project the burden of gonorrhea in a population of men who have sex with men in the US and, the gonorrhea-associated costs and loss in quality adjusted life-years under various antibiotic switch thresholds and scenarios for antibiotic availability. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Antibiotics used for the empiric therapy of gonorrhea are usually changed once the prevalence of resistance to the antibiotic exceeds a certain threshold, currently set at 5%. A low switch threshold is often selected to ensure that the first-line antibiotic remains effective for most patients with gonorrhea. However, little is known about the impact of changing the switch threshold on the incidence of gonorrhea, the rate of treatment failure, and the overall cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with gonorrhea. What did the researchers do and find?: We developed a mathematical model of gonococcal infection among a population of men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States to project the burden of gonorrhea and the overall associated cost and QALYs under various switch thresholds and scenarios for the future availability of antibiotics and drug-susceptibility testing (DST). We found that changing the switch threshold between 1% and 10% does not meaningfully impact the annual number of gonorrhea cases, and total cost and total QALY loss associated with gonorrhea. However, if a new antibiotic is expected to become available in the future choosing a lower threshold could improve the population net health benefit (NHB). What do these findings mean?: Changing the switch threshold may not substantially impact the health and financial outcomes associated with gonorrhea. However, the switch threshold could be reduced when newer antibiotics are expected to become available soon or when DSTs is available to inform retreatment regiments. Our study was limited to MSM in the US and future studies should evaluate the generalizability of our findings to other populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Group A Streptococcus (GAS) causes an estimated 5.2 million outpatient visits for pharyngitis annually in the United States, with incidence peaking in winter, but the annual spatiotemporal pattern of GAS pharyngitis across the United States is poorly characterized. Methods We used outpatient claims data from individuals with private medical insurance between 2010 and 2018 to quantify GAS pharyngitis visit rates across U.S. census regions, subregions, and states. We evaluated seasonal and age-based patterns of geographic spread and the association between school start dates and the summertime upward inflection in GAS visits. Results The South had the most visits per person (yearly average, 39.11 visits per 1000 people; 95% confidence interval, 36.21–42.01) and the West had the fewest (yearly average, 17.63 visits per 1000 people; 95% confidence interval, 16.76–18.49). Visits increased earliest in the South and in school-age children. Differences in visits between the South and other regions were most pronounced in the late summer through early winter. Visits peaked earliest in central southern states, in December to January, and latest on the coasts, in March. The onset of the rise in GAS pharyngitis visits correlated with, but preceded, average school start times. Conclusions The burden and timing of GAS pharyngitis varied across the continental United States, with the South experiencing the highest overall rates and earliest onset and peak in outpatient visits. Understanding the drivers of these regional differences in GAS pharyngitis will help in identifying and targeting prevention measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid point-of-care tests that diagnose gonococcal infections and identify susceptibility to antibiotics enable individualized treatment. This could improve patient outcomes and slow the emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance. However, little is known about the long-term impact of such diagnostics on the burden of gonorrhea and the effective life span of antibiotics. We used a mathematical model of gonorrhea transmission among men who have sex with men in the United States to project the annual rate of reported gonorrhea cases and the effective life span of ceftriaxone, the recommended antibiotic for first-line treatment of gonorrhea, as well as 2 previously recommended antibiotics, ciprofloxacin and tetracycline, when a rapid drug susceptibility test that estimates susceptibility to ciprofloxacin and tetracycline is available. The use of a rapid drug susceptibility test with ≥50% sensitivity and ≥95% specificity, defined in terms of correct ascertainment of drug susceptibility and nonsusceptibility status, could increase the combined effective life span of ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, and ceftriaxone by at least 2 years over 25 years of simulation. If test specificity is imperfect, however, the increase in the effective life span of antibiotics is accompanied by an increase in the rate of reported gonorrhea cases even under perfect sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neisseria gonorrhoeae is an urgent public health threat due to the emergence of antibiotic resistance. As most isolates in the United States are susceptible to at least one antibiotic, rapid molecular antimicrobial susceptibility tests (ASTs) would offer the opportunity to tailor antibiotic therapy, thereby expanding treatment options. With genome sequence and antibiotic resistance phenotype data for nearly 20,000 clinical N. gonorrhoeae isolates now available, there is an opportunity to use statistical methods to develop sequence‐based diagnostics that predict antibiotic susceptibility from genotype. N. gonorrhoeae, therefore, provides a useful example illustrating how to apply machine learning models to aid in the design of sequence‐based ASTs. We present an overview of this framework, which begins with establishing the assay technology, the performance criteria, the population in which the diagnostic will be used, and the clinical goals, and extends to the choices that must be made to arrive at a set of features with the desired properties for predicting susceptibility phenotype from genotype. While we focus on the example of N. gonorrhoeae, the framework generalizes to other organisms for which large‐scale genotype and antibiotic resistance data can be combined to aid in diagnostics development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In the United States, children aged <5 years receive high volumes of antibiotics, which may contribute to antibiotic resistance. It has been unclear what role preventable illnesses and chronic comorbidities play in prompting antibiotic prescriptions. Methods We conducted an observational study with a cohort of 124 759 children aged <5 years born in the United States between 2008 and 2013 with private medical insurance. Study outcomes included the cumulative number of antibiotic courses dispensed per child by age 5 and the proportion of children for whom at least 1 antibiotic course was dispensed by age 5. We identified which chronic medical conditions predicted whether a child would be among the top 20% of antibiotic recipients. Results Children received a mean of 6.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.7–6.9) antibiotic courses by age 5, and 91% (95% CI: 90%–92%) of children had received at least 1 antibiotic course by age 5. Most antibiotic courses (71%; 95% CI: 70%–72%) were associated with respiratory infections. Presence of a pulmonary/respiratory, otologic, and/or immunological comorbidity substantially increase a child's odds of being in the top 20% of antibiotic recipients. Children with at least 1 of these conditions received a mean of 10.5 (95% CI: 10.4–10.6) antibiotic courses by age 5. Conclusions Privately insured children in the United States receive many antibiotics early in life, largely due to respiratory infections. Antibiotic dispensing varies widely among children, with more antibiotics dispensed to children with pulmonary/respiratory, otologic, and/or immunological comorbidities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimated the fraction of antibiotic prescribing in the United States attributable to gonorrhea. Gonorrhea contributes to an outsized proportion of antibiotic prescriptions in young adults, males, and in the southern and western United States. A gonococcal vaccine could substantially reduce antibiotic prescribing in these populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The rise of gonococcal antimicrobial resistance highlights the need for strategies that extend the clinically useful life span of antibiotics. Because there is limited evidence to support the current practice of switching empiric first-line antibiotic when resistance exceeds 5% in the population, our objective was to compare the impact of alternative strategies on the effective life spans of antibiotics and the overall burden of gonorrhea.Methods and Findings: We developed and calibrated a mathematical model of gonorrhea transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. We calibrated the model to the estimated prevalence of gonorrhea, the rate of gonorrhea cases, and the proportion of cases presenting symptoms among MSM in the US. We used this model to project the effective life span of antibiotics and the number of gonorrhea cases expected under current and alternative surveillance strategies over a 50-year simulation period. We demonstrate that compared to the current practice, a strategy that uses quarterly (as opposed to yearly) surveillance estimates and incorporates both the estimated prevalence of resistance and the trend in the prevalence of resistance to determine treatment guidelines could extend the effective life span of antibiotics by 0.83 years. This is equivalent to successfully treating an additional 80.1 (95% uncertainty interval: [47.7, 111.9]) gonorrhea cases per 100,000 MSM population each year with the first-line antibiotics without worsening the burden of gonorrhea. If the annual number of isolates tested for drug susceptibility is doubled, this strategy could increase the effective life span of antibiotics by 0.94 years, which is equivalent to successfully treating an additional 91.1 (54.3, 127.3) gonorrhea cases per 100,000 MSM population each year without increasing the incidence of gonorrhea. Study limitations include that our conclusions might not be generalizable to other settings because our model describes the transmission of gonorrhea among the US MSM population, and, to better capture uncertainty in the characteristics of current and future antibiotics, we chose to model hypothetical drugs with characteristics similar to the antibiotics commonly used in gonorrhea treatment.Conclusions: Our results suggest that use of data from surveillance programs could be expanded to prolong the clinical effectiveness of antibiotics without increasing the burden of the disease. This highlights the importance of maintaining effective surveillance systems and the engagement of policy makers to turn surveillance findings into timely and effective decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antibiotic-resistant Staphylococcus aureus remains a leading cause of antibiotic resistance-associated mortality in the United States. Given the reality of multi-drug resistant infections, it is imperative that we establish and maintain a pipeline of new compounds to replace or supplement our current antibiotics. A first step towards this goal is to prioritize targets by identifying the genes most consistently required for survival across the S. aureus phylogeny. Here we report the first direct comparison of multiple strains of S. aureus via transposon sequencing. We show that mutant fitness varies by strain in key pathways, underscoring the importance of using more than one strain to differentiate between core and strain-dependent essential genes. We treated the libraries with daptomycin to assess whether the strain-dependent differences impact pathways important for survival. Despite baseline differences in gene importance, several pathways, including the lipoteichoic acid pathway, consistently promote survival under daptomycin exposure, suggesting core vulnerabilities that can be exploited to resensitize daptomycin-nonsusceptible isolates. We also demonstrate the merit of using transposons with outward-facing promoters capable of overexpressing nearby genes for identifying clinically-relevant gain-of-function resistance mechanisms. Together, the daptomycin vulnerabilities and resistance mechanisms support a mode of action with wide-ranging effects on the cell envelope and cell division. This work adds to a growing body of literature demonstrating the nuanced insights gained by comparing Tn-Seq results across multiple bacterial strains. Author summary: Antibiotic-resistant Staphylococcus aureus kills thousands of people every year in the United States alone. To stay ahead of the looming threat of multidrug-resistant infections, we must continue to develop new antibiotics and find ways to make our current repertoire of antibiotics more effective, including by finding pairs of compounds that perform best when administered together. In the age of next-generation sequencing, we can now use transposon sequencing to find potential targets for new antibiotics on a genome-wide scale, identified as either essential genes or genes that positively influence survival in the presence of an antibiotic. In this work, we created a compendium of genes that are essential across a range of S. aureus strains, as well as those that are important for growth in the presence of the antibiotic daptomycin. The results will be a resource for researchers working to develop the next generation of antibiotic therapies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the results of a study on life expectancy due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. Topics mentioned include the reason for the occurrence of mortality displacement, the mortality rate of obese people, diabetics, and people with heart disease, the life expectancy of race/ethnicity group, and the effect of artificial increase in life expectancy from mortality displacement.

Background: Treatment of Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection is empirical and based on population-wide susceptibilities. Increasing antimicrobial resistance underscores the potential importance of rapid diagnostic tests, including sequence-based tests, to guide therapy. However, the usefulness of sequence-based diagnostic tests depends on the prevalence and dynamics of the resistance mechanisms.Methods: We define the prevalence and dynamics of resistance markers to extended-spectrum cephalosporins, macrolides, and fluoroquinolones in 1102 resistant and susceptible clinical N. gonorrhoeae isolates collected from 2000 to 2013 via the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project.Results: Reduced extended-spectrum cephalosporin susceptibility is predominantly clonal and associated with the mosaic penA XXXIV allele and derivatives (sensitivity 98% for cefixime and 91% for ceftriaxone), but alternative resistance mechanisms have sporadically emerged. Reduced azithromycin susceptibility has arisen through multiple mechanisms and shows limited clonal spread; the basis for resistance in 36% of isolates with reduced azithromycin susceptibility is unclear. Quinolone-resistant N. gonorrhoeae has arisen multiple times, with extensive clonal spread.Conclusions: Quinolone-resistant N. gonorrhoeae and reduced cefixime susceptibility appear amenable to development of sequence-based diagnostic tests, whereas the undefined mechanisms of resistance to ceftriaxone and azithromycin underscore the importance of phenotypic surveillance. The identification of multidrug-resistant isolates highlights the need for additional measures to respond to the threat of untreatable gonorrhea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Helicobacter pylori seroprevalence levels in US adults participating in the continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2000) increased with age in all racial/ethnic groups, with significantly higher age-standardized levels in Mexican Americans (64.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 58.8, 69.2) and non-Hispanic blacks (52.0%, 95% CI: 48.3, 55.7) compared with non-Hispanic whites (21.2%, 95% CI: 19.1, 23.2). Although seroprevalence levels remained similar to those found in National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 1988 to 1991 among non-Hispanic blacks and Mexican Americans, they were significantly lower in non-Hispanic whites, especially at older ages. The factors driving the decline in H. pylori seroprevalence appear to be acting preferentially on the non-Hispanic white population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) has been shown to be efficacious for the prevention of bacterial sexually transmitted infections, but resistance implications for Neisseria gonorrhoeae remain unknown. We aimed to use a mathematical model to investigate the anticipated impact of doxycycline PEP on the burden of gonorrhoea and antimicrobial resistance dynamics in men who have sex with men (MSM) in the USA., Methods: Using a deterministic compartmental model, characterising gonorrhoea transmission in a US MSM population comprising three sexual activity groups defined by annual partner turnover rates, we introduced doxycycline PEP at various uptake levels (10-90%) among those with high sexual activity. Infections were stratified by symptom status and resistance profile (ie, susceptible, ceftriaxone-resistant, tetracycline-resistant, or dual-resistant), with ceftriaxone the treatment for active infection. As resistance to tetracycline, not doxycycline, is monitored and reported nationally, we used this as a proxy for doxycycline PEP resistance. We compared the 20-year prevalence, incidence rates, and cumulative incidence of gonococcal infection, resistance dynamics (time to 5% prevalence of ceftriaxone resistance, 5% prevalence of dual resistance, and 84% prevalence of tetracycline resistance), and antibiotic consumption with baseline (ie, no doxycycline PEP)., Findings: Uptake of doxycycline PEP resulted in substantial reductions in the prevalence and incidence of gonorrhoea, but accelerated the spread of tetracycline resistance. The maximum reduction in prevalence over 20 years compared with no uptake ranged from 40·3% (IQR 15·3-83·4) with 10% doxycycline PEP uptake to 77·4% (68·4-84·9) with 90% uptake. Similarly, the maximum reduction in the incidence rate ranged from 38·6% (14·1-83·6) with 10% uptake to 77·6% (68·1-84·7) with 90% uptake. Cumulative gonococcal infections were reduced by a median of 14·5% (IQR 8·4-21·6) with 10% uptake and up to 46·2% (26·5-59·9) with 90% uptake after 5 years, and by 6·5% (3·4-13·0) with 10% uptake and 8·7% (4·3-36·2) with 90% uptake by 20 years. In almost all scenarios explored, doxycycline PEP lost clinical effectiveness (defined as 84% prevalence of tetracycline resistance) within the 20-year period, but its lifespan ranged from a median of 12·1 years (IQR 9·9-15·7) with 10% uptake to 1·6 years (1·3-1·9) with 90% uptake. Doxycycline PEP implementation had minimal impact on extending the clinical lifespan of ceftriaxone monotherapy (5·0 years [IQR 4·0-6·2]), with the median time to 5% prevalence of resistance ranging from 4·8 years (3·9-6·0) for 90% uptake to 5·0 years (4·1-6·2) for 10% uptake. Similarly, the median time to 5% prevalence of dual resistance to ceftriaxone and tetracycline ranged from 4·8 years (3·9-6·0) for 90% uptake to 5·8 years (4·8-7·4) for 10% uptake. Median decrease in ceftriaxone consumption for high doxycycline PEP uptake levels compared with baseline ranged from 41·7% (27·0-54·3) for 50% uptake to 50·2% (29·3-62·7) for 90% uptake at 5 years, but dropped to 11·8% (6·9-32·0) for 50% uptake and 12·1% (7·0-41·6) for 90% uptake after 20 years., Interpretation: Notwithstanding the clear benefits of doxycycline PEP for other sexually transmitted infections, for N gonorrhoeae, model findings suggest that doxycycline PEP is an effective but impermanent solution for reducing infection burden, given eventual selection for resistant strains. This finding presents a challenge for policy makers considering strategies for doxycycline PEP implementation and oversight: the need to balance the clear, short-term clinical benefits with the risk of harm via antimicrobial resistance., Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests YHG has received consulting fees from GSK outside the scope of this work. ER is an employee of Analysis Group, outside the scope of this work., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to upgrade systems for infectious disease surveillance and forecasting and modeling of the spread of infection, both of which inform evidence-based public health guidance and policies. Here, we discuss requirements for an effective surveillance system to support decision making during a pandemic, drawing on the lessons of COVID-19 in the U.S., while looking to jurisdictions in the U.S. and beyond to learn lessons about the value of specific data types. In this report, we define the range of decisions for which surveillance data are required, the data elements needed to inform these decisions and to calibrate inputs and outputs of transmission-dynamic models, and the types of data needed to inform decisions by state, territorial, local, and tribal health authorities. We define actions needed to ensure that such data will be available and consider the contribution of such efforts to improving health equity., Competing Interests: RS was employed by company Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics. JV was employed by company SIGA Technologies. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Lipsitch, Bassett, Brownstein, Elliott, Eyre, Grabowski, Hay, Johansson, Kissler, Larremore, Layden, Lessler, Lynfield, MacCannell, Madoff, Metcalf, Meyers, Ofori, Quinn, Bento, Reich, Riley, Rosenfeld, Samore, Sampath, Slayton, Swerdlow, Truelove, Varma and Grad.)

Importance: Multiple therapies are available for outpatient treatment of COVID-19 that are highly effective at preventing hospitalization and mortality. Although racial and socioeconomic disparities in use of these therapies have been documented, limited evidence exists on what factors explain differences in use and the potential public health relevance of these differences., Objective: To assess COVID-19 outpatient treatment utilization in the Medicare population and simulate the potential outcome of allocating treatment according to patient risk for severe COVID-19., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included patients enrolled in Medicare in 2022 across the US, identified with 100% Medicare fee-for-service claims., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was any COVID-19 outpatient therapy utilization. Secondary outcomes included COVID-19 testing, ambulatory visits, and hospitalization. Differences in outcomes were estimated based on patient demographics, treatment contraindications, and a composite risk score for mortality after COVID-19 based on demographics and comorbidities. A simulation of reallocating COVID-19 treatment, particularly with nirmatrelvir, to those at high risk of severe disease was performed, and the potential COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality outcomes were assessed., Results: In 2022, 6.0% of 20 026 910 beneficiaries received outpatient COVID-19 treatment, 40.5% of which had no associated COVID-19 diagnosis within 10 days. Patients with higher risk for severe disease received less outpatient treatment, such as 6.4% of those aged 65 to 69 years compared with 4.9% of those 90 years and older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.64 [95% CI, 0.62-0.65]) and 6.4% of White patients compared with 3.0% of Black patients (aOR, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.54-0.58]). In the highest COVID-19 severity risk quintile, 2.6% were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 4.9% received outpatient treatment, compared with 0.2% and 7.5% in the lowest quintile. These patterns were similar among patients with a documented COVID-19 diagnosis, those with no claims for vaccination, and patients who are insured with Medicare Advantage. Differences were not explained by variable COVID-19 testing, ambulatory visits, or treatment contraindications. Reallocation of 2022 outpatient COVID-19 treatment, particularly with nirmatrelvir, based on risk for severe COVID-19 would have averted 16 503 COVID-19 deaths (16.3%) in the sample., Conclusion: In this cross-sectional study, outpatient COVID-19 treatment was disproportionately accessed by beneficiaries at lower risk for severe infection, undermining its potential public health benefit. Undertreatment was not driven by lack of clinical access or treatment contraindications.

SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by viral proliferation and clearance phases and can be followed by low-level persistent viral RNA shedding. The dynamics of viral RNA concentration, particularly in the early stages of infection, can inform clinical measures and interventions such as test-based screening. We used prospective longitudinal quantitative reverse transcription PCR testing to measure the viral RNA trajectories for 68 individuals during the resumption of the 2019-2020 National Basketball Association season. For 46 individuals with acute infections, we inferred the peak viral concentration and the duration of the viral proliferation and clearance phases. According to our mathematical model, we found that viral RNA concentrations peaked an average of 3.3 days (95% credible interval [CI] 2.5, 4.2) after first possible detectability at a cycle threshold value of 22.3 (95% CI 20.5, 23.9). The viral clearance phase lasted longer for symptomatic individuals (10.9 days [95% CI 7.9, 14.4]) than for asymptomatic individuals (7.8 days [95% CI 6.1, 9.7]). A second test within 2 days after an initial positive PCR test substantially improves certainty about a patient's infection stage. The effective sensitivity of a test intended to identify infectious individuals declines substantially with test turnaround time. These findings indicate that SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations peak rapidly regardless of symptoms. Sequential tests can help reveal a patient's progress through infection stages. Frequent, rapid-turnaround testing is needed to effectively screen individuals before they become infectious., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: JW is an employee of Quest Diagnostics. JW is an employee of Bioreference Laboratories. NDG has a consulting agreement for Tempus and receives financial support from Tempus to develop SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests. SMK, SWO, and YHG have a consulting agreement with the NBA.

Importance: Clinical data are lacking regarding the risk of viral transmission from individuals who have positive reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) SARS-CoV-2 test results after recovery from COVID-19., Objective: To describe case characteristics, including viral dynamics and transmission of infection, for individuals who have clinically recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection but continued to have positive test results following discontinuation of isolation precautions., Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data collected from June 11, 2020, to October 19, 2020, as part of the National Basketball Association (NBA) closed campus occupational health program in Orlando, Florida, which required daily RT-PCR testing and ad hoc serological testing for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Nearly 4000 NBA players, staff, and vendors participated in the NBA's regular and postseason occupational health program in Orlando. Persistent positive cases were those who recovered from a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection, satisfied US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for discontinuation of isolation precautions, and had at least 1 postinfection positive RT-PCR test(s) result., Exposures: Person-days of participation in indoor, unmasked activities that involved direct exposure between persistent positive cases and noninfected individuals., Main Outcomes and Measures: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 following interaction with persistent positive individuals, as measured by the number of new COVID-19 cases in the Orlando campus program., Results: Among 3648 individuals who participated, 36 (1%) were persistent positive cases, most of whom were younger than 30 years (24 [67%]) and male (34 [94%]). Antibodies were detected in 33 individuals (91.7%); all remained asymptomatic following the index persistent positive RT-PCR result. Cycle threshold values for persistent positive RT-PCR test results were typically above the Roche cobas SARS-CoV-2 limit of detection. Cases were monitored for up to 100 days (mean [SD], 51 [23.9] days), during which there were at least 1480 person-days of direct exposure activities, with no transmission events or secondary infections of SARS-CoV-2 detected (0 new cases)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study of the 2020 NBA closed campus occupational health program, recovered individuals who continued to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 following discontinuation of isolation were not infectious to others. These findings support time-based US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention recommendations for ending isolation.

Antibiotic use is a key driver of antibiotic resistance. Understanding the quantitative association between antibiotic use and resulting resistance is important for predicting future rates of antibiotic resistance and for designing antibiotic stewardship policy. However, the use-resistance association is complicated by "spillover," in which one population's level of antibiotic use affects another population's level of resistance via the transmission of bacteria between those populations. Spillover is known to have effects at the level of families and hospitals, but it is unclear if spillover is relevant at larger scales. We used mathematical modeling and analysis of observational data to address this question. First, we used dynamical models of antibiotic resistance to predict the effects of spillover. Whereas populations completely isolated from one another do not experience any spillover, we found that if even 1% of interactions are between populations, then spillover may have large consequences: The effect of a change in antibiotic use in one population on antibiotic resistance in that population could be reduced by as much as 50%. Then, we quantified spillover in observational antibiotic use and resistance data from US states and European countries for three pathogen-antibiotic combinations, finding that increased interactions between populations were associated with smaller differences in antibiotic resistance between those populations. Thus, spillover may have an important impact at the level of states and countries, which has ramifications for predicting the future of antibiotic resistance, designing antibiotic resistance stewardship policy, and interpreting stewardship interventions., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Unusually large outbreaks of mumps across the United States in 2016 and 2017 raised questions about the extent of mumps circulation and the relationship between these and prior outbreaks. We paired epidemiological data from public health investigations with analysis of mumps virus whole genome sequences from 201 infected individuals, focusing on Massachusetts university communities. Our analysis suggests continuous, undetected circulation of mumps locally and nationally, including multiple independent introductions into Massachusetts and into individual communities. Despite the presence of these multiple mumps virus lineages, the genomic data show that one lineage has dominated in the US since at least 2006. Widespread transmission was surprising given high vaccination rates, but we found no genetic evidence that variants arising during this outbreak contributed to vaccine escape. Viral genomic data allowed us to reconstruct mumps transmission links not evident from epidemiological data or standard single-gene surveillance efforts and also revealed connections between apparently unrelated mumps outbreaks., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Bystander selection-the selective pressure for resistance exerted by antibiotics on microbes that are not the target pathogen of treatment-is critical to understanding the total impact of broad-spectrum antibiotic use on pathogenic bacterial species that are often carried asymptomatically. However, to our knowledge, this effect has never been quantified. We quantify bystander selection for resistance for a range of clinically relevant antibiotic-species pairs as the proportion of all antibiotic exposures received by a species for conditions in which that species was not the causative pathogen ("proportion of bystander exposures"). Data sources include the 2010-2011 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, the Human Microbiome Project, and additional carriage and etiological data from existing literature. For outpatient prescribing in the United States, we find that this proportion over all included antibiotic classes is over 80% for eight of nine organisms of interest. Low proportions of bystander exposure are often associated with infrequent bacterial carriage or concentrated prescribing of a particular antibiotic for conditions caused by the species of interest. Applying our results, we roughly estimate that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programs result in nearly the same proportional reduction in total antibiotic exposures of Streptococcus pneumoniae , Staphylococcus aureus , and Escherichia coli , despite the latter two organisms not being targeted by the vaccine. These results underscore the importance of considering antibiotic exposures of bystanders, in addition to the target pathogen, in measuring the impact of antibiotic resistance interventions., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement: M.L. has received consulting income from Affinivax, Antigen Discovery, Merck, and Pfizer and research grants through Harvard School of Public Health from Pfizer and PATH.

Antibiotic use is a primary driver of antibiotic resistance. However, antibiotic use can be distributed in different ways in a population, and the association between the distribution of use and antibiotic resistance has not been explored. Here, we tested the hypothesis that repeated use of antibiotics has a stronger association with population-wide antibiotic resistance than broadly-distributed, low-intensity use. First, we characterized the distribution of outpatient antibiotic use across US states, finding that antibiotic use is uneven and that repeated use of antibiotics makes up a minority of antibiotic use. Second, we compared antibiotic use with resistance for 72 pathogen-antibiotic combinations across states. Finally, having partitioned total use into extensive and intensive margins, we found that intense use had a weaker association with resistance than extensive use. If the use-resistance relationship is causal, these results suggest that reducing total use and selection intensity will require reducing broadly distributed, low-intensity use., Competing Interests: SO, MB, DM, JB, SH, YG No competing interests declared, ML Reviewing editor, eLife, (© 2018, Olesen et al.)

Using a US nationwide survey, we measured disparities in antimicrobial drug acquisition by race/ethnicity for 2014-2015. White persons reported twice as many antimicrobial drug prescription fills per capita as persons of other race/ethnicities. Characterizing antimicrobial drug use by demographic might improve antimicrobial drug stewardship and help address antimicrobial drug resistance.

After decades of declining mumps incidence amid widespread vaccination, the United States and other developed countries have experienced a resurgence in mumps cases over the last decade. Outbreaks affecting vaccinated individuals and communities with high vaccine coverage have prompted concerns about the effectiveness of the live attenuated vaccine currently in use. It is unclear whether immune protection wanes or whether the vaccine protects inadequately against currently circulating mumps virus lineages. Synthesizing data from six studies of mumps vaccine effectiveness, we estimated that vaccine-derived immune protection against mumps wanes on average 27 years (95% confidence interval, 16 to 51 years) after vaccination. After accounting for this waning, we found no evidence that the emergence of heterologous virus genotypes contributed to changes in vaccine effectiveness over time. A mathematical model of mumps transmission confirmed the central role of waning immunity to the vaccine in the re-emergence of mumps cases. Outbreaks from 2006 to the present among young adults, and outbreaks in the late 1980s and early 1990s among adolescents, aligned with peaks in mumps susceptibility of these age groups predicted to be due to loss of vaccine-derived protection. In contrast, evolution of mumps virus strains escaping immune pressure would be expected to cause a higher proportion of cases among children, not adolescents and young adults as observed. Routine use of a third vaccine dose at 18 years of age, or booster dosing throughout adulthood, may be a strategy to prevent mumps re-emergence and should be assessed in clinical trials., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Background: Tracking the spread of antimicrobial-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a major priority for national surveillance programmes., Objectives: We investigate whether WGS and simultaneous analysis of multiple resistance determinants can be used to predict antimicrobial susceptibilities to the level of MICs in N. gonorrhoeae., Methods: WGS was used to identify previously reported potential resistance determinants in 681 N. gonorrhoeae isolates, from England, the USA and Canada, with phenotypes for cefixime, penicillin, azithromycin, ciprofloxacin and tetracycline determined as part of national surveillance programmes. Multivariate linear regression models were used to identify genetic predictors of MIC. Model performance was assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation., Results: Overall 1785/3380 (53%) MIC values were predicted to the nearest doubling dilution and 3147 (93%) within ±1 doubling dilution and 3314 (98%) within ±2 doubling dilutions. MIC prediction performance was similar across the five antimicrobials tested. Prediction models included the majority of previously reported resistance determinants. Applying EUCAST breakpoints to MIC predictions, the overall very major error (VME; phenotypically resistant, WGS-prediction susceptible) rate was 21/1577 (1.3%, 95% CI 0.8%-2.0%) and the major error (ME; phenotypically susceptible, WGS-prediction resistant) rate was 20/1186 (1.7%, 1.0%-2.6%). VME rates met regulatory thresholds for all antimicrobials except cefixime and ME rates for all antimicrobials except tetracycline. Country of testing was a strongly significant predictor of MIC for all five antimicrobials., Conclusions: We demonstrate a WGS-based MIC prediction approach that allows reliable MIC prediction for five gonorrhoea antimicrobials. Our approach should allow reasonably precise prediction of MICs for a range of bacterial species., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.)

Background: The emergence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae with decreased susceptibility to extended spectrum cephalosporins raises the prospect of untreatable gonorrhoea. In the absence of new treatments, efforts to slow the increasing incidence of resistant gonococcus require insight into the factors that contribute to its emergence and spread. We assessed the relatedness between isolates in the USA and reconstructed likely spread of lineages through different sexual networks., Methods: We sequenced the genomes of 236 isolates of N gonorrhoeae collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP) from sentinel public sexually transmitted disease clinics in the USA, including 118 (97%) of the isolates from 2009-10 in GISP with reduced susceptibility to cefixime (cef(RS)) and 118 cefixime-susceptible isolates from GISP matched as closely as possible by location, collection date, and sexual orientation. We assessed the association between antimicrobial resistance genotype and phenotype and correlated phylogenetic clustering with location and sexual orientation., Findings: Mosaic penA XXXIV had a high positive predictive value for cef(RS). We found that two of the 118 cef(RS) isolates lacked a mosaic penA allele, and rechecking showed that these two were susceptible to cefixime. Of the 116 remaining cef(RS) isolates, 114 (98%) fell into two distinct lineages that have independently acquired mosaic penA allele XXXIV. A major lineage of cef(RS) strains spread eastward, predominantly through a sexual network of men who have sex with men. Eight of nine inferred transitions between sexual networks were introductions from men who have sex with men into the heterosexual population., Interpretation: Genomic methods might aid efforts to slow the spread of antibiotic-resistant N gonorrhoeae through augmentation of gonococcal outbreak surveillance and identification of populations that could benefit from increased screening for asymptomatic infections., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)