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This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States (US) restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty. Moreover, a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty, corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions. Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices. Furthermore, asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices. We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate. Additionally, we detected a one-way asymmetric causality, flowing from a positive (negative) shock to a positive (negative) shock in energy prices. Therefore, these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations. Highlights: The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined. There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty. A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty. There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the impact of the US antidumping investigations on the prices received by Vietnamese shrimp exporters. Vietnamese shrimp was the target of an antidumping petition filed in 2003 and Vietnam was treated as a non-market economy country. The estimates indicate that, after the final determination, Vietnamese exporters increased their prices by much more than 100% of the antidumping duties in an attempt to eliminate future duties. In addition, no evidence was found for a significant difference in the exchange rate pass-through of affected products. This result differs from the cases of the market economy examined in previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate fluctuations have been particularly large since mid-2014, displaying divergent developments across the period. The nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar has appreciated by 15 per cent since June 2014, masking a 25 per cent appreciation to December 2016 followed by a depreciation of 8 per cent. Changes in the euro have turned positive after being negative. This article attempts to measure the impact of currency changes on domestic activity, accounting for the source of fluctuations. More specifically, by using the multi-country structural model NiGEM, we show that different types of exchange rate shocks can have different macroeconomic outcomes. Focusing on the period from January 2017 to February 2018, we show that the depreciation of the dollar, stemming mostly from changes in sentiment in foreign exchange markets, would in fact have been detrimental to US growth. A weaker currency, in this particular case, turned out to be no recipe for stronger growth. Similarly, the appreciation of the euro, triggered by a fall in the risk premium of the currency, may have been positive for growth. There are caveats to the exercise, but the results are nonetheless consistent with previous research pointing to the importance of the nature of the exchange rate shocks in estimating their impact on prices and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Overview: A world with higher inflation Our world GDP growth forecasts are unchanged this month, at 2.6% for 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. But we expect a sizeable increase in inflation, to 3.3% in 2017 from an estimated 2.8% in 2016, as the effect of higher oil prices feeds through., Global indicators continue to point to a pick-up in activity towards the end of last year, driven by stronger manufacturing activity. The global manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in almost three years in December, while the composite index - which includes services - was at a 13-month high., World trade should be underpinned by stronger growth in the US (2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018), bolstered by the anticipated effects of President Trump's expansive fiscal policies. That said, uncertainties around our central forecast are unusually high given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration. Encouragingly, there are increasing signs that the tighter labour market is leading to a pick-up in wage inflation in the US, which will support consumers., Given these reflationary trends, we expect two increases in the Federal funds rate this year and US bond yields are likely to continue to rise. The widening of interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone will drive the euro down to parity with the US dollar by end-2017 for the first time since 2002., We have revised our Brexit assumptions this month. We now assume that the two-year period of exit negotiations is followed by a transitional arrangement lasting 2-3 years. This would provide breathing space to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU., Emerging market growth on the whole will improve in 2017 but performance will differ across countries: Russia and Brazil will exit recession, but countries with weak balance of payments positions, high dollar debt and exposure to possible US protectionist actions will be at risk. In China, policymakers are moving to greater emphasis on reducing financial risks and less focus on the 6.5% GDP growth target for 2017. Continued action is also likely to dampen further depreciation of the CNY. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document basic facts about prices in online markets in the United States and Canada, which is a rapidly growing segment of the retail sector. Relative to prices in regular stores, prices in online markets are more flexible and exhibit stronger pass-through (60-75 percent) and faster convergence (half-life less than two months) in response to movements of the nominal exchange rate. Multiple margins of adjustment are active in the process of responding to nominal exchange rate shocks. Properties of goods, sellers, and markets are systematically related to pass-through and the speed of price adjustment for international price differentials. (JEL F31, F41, L11, L81) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional estimation method of the pricing-to-market (the PTM) model in the international trade literature is a within model of panel regression of export prices on exchange rates with time and country dummies. Previous studies have found a significant coefficient parameter in exchange rate variable, which is only indicative of short-run pricing-to-market for multiple export destinations rather than long-run pricing behavior. This paper examines a long- run pricing-to-market for U.S. broiler meat export markets, using "between" panel specification. Findings indicate that the U.S. pricing-to-market behavior of exporters is both transient and persistently long. These results clearly imply that the implementation of a long-run pricing-to-market strategy in the U.S. broiler meat exports mitigates the rising imbalance between the domestic production and consumption via incomplete exchange rate pass-through. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1998, cigarette manufacturers and state attorneys general in the United States settled a group of lawsuits in an agreement known as the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). Among the provisions of this agreement were a set of mandated escrow payments to the states that would be based on cigarette sales. The result of these provisions is that the apparent relationship between taxes and prices changed substantially following implementation of the MSA. This article estimates whether the MSA escrow amounts are reflected in prices and compares the pass-through rate of state and federal cigarette taxes only and the rate when one adds escrow payments. We find much different pass-through rates for the two measures. State and federal taxes are not fully passed to smokers. In years that escrow payments were made, cigarette prices increased by more than the sum of the state and federal taxes and the escrow payments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically investigate how various economic factors affect the changes in the pricing policies of exporters, in particular changes in the exchange rate pass-through. Assuming exporters set prices following either a high or a low pass-through pricing policy, and assuming that the transition probabilities between these pricing policies depend on market concentration, exporting country's market share and monetary stability, we estimate a Markov regime-switching model, using data we have collected on imported cars to the United States. Our findings show that the 'low pass-through' regime is characterized by: lower exchange rate pass-through, low response to misalignments in the firm's relative price, low volatility of exogenous shocks, and higher duration. When we decompose the changes in the pass-through in our sample, we find that monetary stability has been the most important factor behind the decline in the pass-through. Monetary stability explains more than 50% of the decline in the exchange rate pass-through, while country market share and market concentration explain about 25 and 10%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in the presence of menu costs. Assuming exports prices are negotiated in the exporter’s currency, menu costs give rise to two thresholds around (within) which incomplete ERPT is (not) observed. An error correcting process is triggered from a deviation in the ERPT cointegrating relation only when the deviation is large enough in absolute value to fall outside of a band defined by symmetric thresholds. Threshold autoregressive (TAR) cointegration techniques are used to investigate Quebec and Ontario pork meat export prices in the US and Japanese markets. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we find that our Equilibrium-TAR tests have greater power than a standard unit root test. Our empirical application suggests that Canadian pork exporters exercise market power in the US market. The evidence of incomplete ERPT in the Japanese market is weaker and differs across provinces. Evidence of thresholds is reported for both destinations, thus indicating the existence of significant menu costs for Canadian pork exporters in these markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares exchange rate pass-through to aggregate prices in the US, Germany and Japan across a number of dimensions. Building on the empirical approaches in the recent literature, our contribution is to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis of pass-through estimates. We find that the econometric method, data frequency and variable proxy employed matter for the precision of details, yet they often agree on some general trends. Thus, pass-through to import prices has declined in the 1990s relative to the 1980s, pass-through to export prices remains country-specific and pass-through to consumer prices is nowadays negligible in all three economies we considered. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A distinctive feature of present globalization is the development of international production sharing activities (i.e. production fragmentation). The recent developments in transportation and communication technologies led to a surge in intermediate goods trade. However, intermediate goods trade is often neglected in the empirical studies of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). Using import unit values of 79 motor vehicle products and 245 auto-part products, which are classified by the 10-digit level of Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS), this study examines the passthrough of exchange rate changes into the U.S. auto-industry import prices from 5 major trading partners for the period of 1998.01 to 2006.12. Nonstationary panel data estimation techniques and tests for cointegration are employed in this study. Secondly, this study aims to compare the ERPT for the motor vehicle products (final goods) to the ERPT for the auto-parts (intermediate goods) in the U.S. The results suggest that import prices do not respond proportionately to the exchange rates and the estimated pass-through elasticities for motor vehicle products are lower than that for auto-parts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of lags in the production and marketing of agricultural products on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in export prices is investigated. The predictions of the theoretical model are tested by investigating Canadian pork export prices in the United States and Japan. The empirical methodology accounts for unit root and cointegration using the dynamic seemingly unrelated regression framework and a minimum distance estimator. Predetermined hog supplies have a statistically significant impact on export prices of two out of three Canadian provinces. The degree of misspecification involved with standard pass-through models that do not account for production lags is also illustrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We contribute to the literature on the political economy of U.S. antidumping enforcement through an analysis of the pattern—and macroeconomic determinants—of country-specific antidumping petitions filed by U.S. firms against 15 countries between 1981 and 1998 (examining quarterly data). We reconcile some seemingly inconsistent results from the prior literature by suggesting that “learning” by petitioners about the administration—in practice—of the U.S. trade laws has led to changes in the roles of the macroeconomic determinants over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]