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Purpose: Improvements in recurrence-free survival (RFS) were demonstrated in two recent randomized trials for patients with sentinel node (SN)-negative stage IIB or IIC melanoma receiving adjuvant systemic therapy (pembrolizumab/nivolumab). However, adverse events also occurred. Accurate individualized prognostic estimates of RFS and overall survival (OS) would allow patients to more accurately weigh the risks and benefits of adjuvant therapy. Since the current American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth edition (AJCC-8) melanoma staging system focuses on melanoma-specific survival, we developed a multivariable risk prediction calculator that provides estimates of 5- and 10-year RFS and OS for these patients., Methods: Data were extracted from the Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) database for patients diagnosed with stage II (clinical or pathological) melanoma (n = 3,220). Survival prediction models were developed using multivariable Cox regression analyses (MIA models) and externally validated twice using data sets from the United States and the Netherlands. Each model's performance was assessed using C-statistics and calibration plots and compared with Cox models on the basis of AJCC-8 staging (stage models)., Results: The 5-year and 10-year RFS C-statistics were 0.70 and 0.73 (MIA-model) versus 0.61 and 0.60 (stage-model), respectively. For OS, the 5-year and 10-year C-statistics were 0.71 and 0.75 (MIA-model) compared with 0.62 and 0.61 (stage-model), respectively. The MIA models were well calibrated and externally validated., Conclusion: The MIA models offer accurate and personalized estimates of both RFS and OS in patients with stage II melanoma even in the absence of pathological staging with SN biopsy. These models were robust on external validations and may be used in everyday practice both with (ideally) and without performing SN biopsy to identify high-risk patients for further management strategies. An online tool will be available at the MIA website (Risk Prediction Tools).

Background: The vermilion lip is a unique anatomical junction between cutaneous and mucosal surfaces. Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the vermilion lip (vlSCC) was previously classified as oral SCC (oSCC) under the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition (AJCC7), but has been recategorized as a cutaneous SCC of the head and neck (HNcSCC) in the AJCC 8th edition (AJCC8). We investigated the locoregional control (LRC), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) for the various pathological T categories and disease stages of vlSCC as per AJCC8., Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 297 patients diagnosed with vlSCC between January 2004 and February 2019. For this study, vlSCC cases were staged according to both AJCC7 and AJCC8. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression models were used to analyze differences in LRC, DFS, and OS between each pT category and disease stage, and log-rank tests were performed for subgroup analysis., Results: Restaging of vlSCC using the AJCC8 resulted in 19% of patients being upstaged to pT3, and 16% being upstaged to stage III. No patients were downstaged in pT stage or overall stage., Conclusions: Our study shows that when the AJCC8 HNcSCC staging system is applied to vlSCC, there are important aberrations leading to unwarranted upstaging of pT1 and redundancy of pT2. Understanding of these limitations are important in considering treatment escalation.