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Introduction history, including propagule pressure and residence time, has been proposed as a primary driver of biological invasions. However, it is unclear whether introduction history increases the likelihood that a species will be invasive or only the likelihood that it will be established. Using a dataset of non-native species historically available as ornamental plants in the conterminous United States, we investigated how introduction history relates to these stages of invasion. Introduction history was highly significant and a strong predictor of establishment, but only marginally significant and a poor predictor of invasive success. Propagule pressure predicted establishment better than residence time, with species likely to be established if they were introduced to only eight locations. These findings suggest that ongoing plant introductions will lead to widespread establishment but may not directly increase invasive success. Instead, other characteristics, like plant traits and local scale processes, may better predict whether a species becomes invasive., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Historical horticultural plant sales influence native and nonnative species assemblages in contemporary ecosystems. Over half of nonnative, invasive plants naturalized in the United States were introduced as ornamentals, and the spatial and temporal patterns of early introduction undoubtedly influence current invasion ecology. While thousands of digitized nursery catalogs documenting these introductions are publicly available, they have not been standardized in a single database. To fill this gap, we obtained the names of all plant taxa (species, subspecies, and varieties) present in the Biodiversity Heritage Library's (BHL) Seed and Nursery Catalog Collection. We then searched the BHL database for these names and downloaded all available records. We combined BHL records with data from an encyclopedia of heirloom ornamental plants to create a single database of historical nursery sales in the US. Each record represents an individual taxon offered for sale at an individual time in a specific nursery's catalog. We standardized records to the current World Flora Online (http://worldfloraonline.org) accepted taxonomy and appended accepted USDA code, growth habit, and introduction status. We also appended whether taxa were reported as invasive in the Global Plant Invaders (GPI) data set or the Global Invasive Species Database (GISD) or regulated in the conterminous US. Lastly, we geocoded all reported publication locations. The data set contains 2,445,875 records from nurseries in at least 2795 unique locations, with the majority of catalogs published between 1890 and 1950. Nurseries were located in all conterminous states but were concentrated in the eastern US and California. We identified 19,140 unique horticultural taxa, of which 8642 matched taxa in the USDA Plants database. The USDA Plants database is limited to native and naturalized taxa in the US. Native or introduced status was listed in USDA Plants for 7018 of included taxa, while 1642 had an unknown status. The remaining 10,498 taxa are not naturalized according to USDA Plants or are of varieties of native and introduced taxa that did not match USDA Plants taxonomy. The majority of taxa in the Historical Plant Sales (HPS) database with an identified status are native (65.5%; 4596 of 7018 taxa), of which 393 taxa are reported as invasive outside of the US. Of the 2381 introduced taxa, 1103 (46.3%) are reported as invasive somewhere globally. Despite a richer pool of native taxa, most cataloged plant records with an identified status were of introduced taxa (54.1%; 1,045,684 of 1,933,925 records). Plants reported as invasive somewhere globally comprised a large portion of records with an identified status (38.7%; 747,953 of 1,933,925 records) underscoring the large role of ornamental introductions in facilitating plant invasions. The HPS database provides a consolidated and standardized perspective on the history of native, introduced, and invasive plant sales in the US. We release these data into the public domain under a Creative Commons Zero license waiver (https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/publicdomain/cc0/). Individuals who use these data for publication may cite the associated data paper., (© 2023 The Ecological Society of America.)

Fire-prone invasive grasses create novel ecosystem threats by increasing fine-fuel loads and continuity, which can alter fire regimes. While the existence of an invasive grass-fire cycle is well known, evidence of altered fire regimes is typically based on local-scale studies or expert knowledge. Here, we quantify the effects of 12 nonnative, invasive grasses on fire occurrence, size, and frequency across 29 US ecoregions encompassing more than one third of the conterminous United States. These 12 grass species promote fire locally and have extensive spatial records of abundant infestations. We combined agency and satellite fire data with records of abundant grass invasion to test for differences in fire regimes between invaded and nearby "uninvaded" habitat. Additionally, we assessed whether invasive grass presence is a significant predictor of altered fire by modeling fire occurrence, size, and frequency as a function of grass invasion, in addition to anthropogenic and ecological covariates relevant to fire. Eight species showed significantly higher fire-occurrence rates, which more than tripled for Schismus barbatus and Pennisetum ciliare. Six species demonstrated significantly higher mean fire frequency, which more than doubled for Neyraudia reynaudiana and Pennisetum ciliare Grass invasion was significant in fire occurrence and frequency models, but not in fire-size models. The significant differences in fire regimes, coupled with the importance of grass invasion in modeling these differences, suggest that invasive grasses alter US fire regimes at regional scales. As concern about US wildfires grows, accounting for fire-promoting invasive grasses will be imperative for effectively managing ecosystems., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

As the main witnesses of the ecological and economic impacts of invasions on ecosystems around the world, ecologists seek to provide the relevant science that informs managers about the potential for invasion of specific organisms in their region(s) of interest. Yet, the assorted literature that could inform such forecasts is rarely integrated to do so, and further, the diverse nature of the data available complicates synthesis and quantitative prediction. Here we present a set of analytical tools for synthesizing different levels of distributional and/or demographic data to produce meaningful assessments of invasion potential that can guide management at multiple phases of ongoing invasions, from dispersal to colonization to proliferation. We illustrate the utility of data-synthesis and data-model assimilation approaches with case studies of three well-known invasive species--a vine, a marine mussel, and a freshwater crayfish--under current and projected future climatic conditions. Results from the integrated assessments reflect the complexity of the invasion process and show that the most relevant climatic variables can have contrasting effects or operate at different intensities across habitat types. As a consequence, for two of the study species climate trends will increase the likelihood of invasion in some habitats and decrease it in others. Our results identified and quantified both bottlenecks and windows of opportunity for invasion, mainly related to the role of human uses of the landscape or to disruption of the flow of resources. The approach we describe has a high potential to enhance model realism, explanatory insight, and predictive capability, generating information that can inform management decisions and optimize phase-specific prevention and control efforts for a wide range of biological invasions.

Premise of the Study: Preventing new plant invasions is critical for reducing large-scale ecological change. Most studies have focused on the deliberate introduction of nonnatives via the ornamental plant trade. However, accidental introduction may be an important source of nonnative, invasive plants., Methods: Using Web and literature searches, we compiled pathways of introduction to the United States for 1112 nonnative plants identified as invasive in the continental United States. We assessed how the proportion of accidentally and deliberately introduced invasive plants varies over time and space and by growth habit across the lower 48 states., Key Results: Deliberate introductions of ornamentals are the primary source of invasive plants in the United States, but accidental introductions through seed contaminants are an important secondary source. Invasive forbs and grasses are the most likely to have arrived accidentally through seed contaminants, while almost all nonnative, invasive trees were introduced deliberately. Nonnative plants invading eastern states primarily arrived deliberately as ornamentals, while a high proportion of invasive plants in western states arrived accidentally as seed contaminants. Accidental introductions may be increasing in importance through time. Before 1850, 10 of 89 (11%) of invasive plants arrived accidentally. After 1900, 20 of 65 (31%) arrived accidentally., Conclusions: Recently enacted screening protocols and weed risk assessments aim to reduce the number of potentially invasive species arriving to the United States via deliberate introduction pathways. Increasing proportions of accidentally introduced invasive plants, particularly associated with contaminated seed imports across the western states, suggest that accidental introduction pathways also need to be considered in future regulatory decisions.

Non-native, invasive grasses have been linked to altered grass-fire cycles worldwide. Although a few studies have quantified resulting changes in fire activity at local scales, and many have speculated about larger scales, regional alterations to fire regimes remain poorly documented. We assessed the influence of large-scale Bromus tectorum (hereafter cheatgrass) invasion on fire size, duration, spread rate, and interannual variability in comparison to other prominent land cover classes across the Great Basin, USA. We compared regional land cover maps to burned area measured using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2000-2009 and to fire extents recorded by the USGS registry of fires from 1980 to 2009. Cheatgrass dominates at least 6% of the central Great Basin (650 000 km(2) ). MODIS records show that 13% of these cheatgrass-dominated lands burned, resulting in a fire return interval of 78 years for any given location within cheatgrass. This proportion was more than double the amount burned across all other vegetation types (range: 0.5-6% burned). During the 1990s, this difference was even more extreme, with cheatgrass burning nearly four times more frequently than any native vegetation type (16% of cheatgrass burned compared to 1-5% of native vegetation). Cheatgrass was also disproportionately represented in the largest fires, comprising 24% of the land area of the 50 largest fires recorded by MODIS during the 2000s. Furthermore, multi-date fires that burned across multiple vegetation types were significantly more likely to have started in cheatgrass. Finally, cheatgrass fires showed a strong interannual response to wet years, a trend only weakly observed in native vegetation types. These results demonstrate that cheatgrass invasion has substantially altered the regional fire regime. Although this result has been suspected by managers for decades, this study is the first to document recent cheatgrass-driven fire regimes at a regional scale., (© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.