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Importance: Recent insights into the biologic characteristics and treatment of oropharyngeal cancer may help inform improvements in prognostic modeling. A bayesian multistate model incorporates sophisticated statistical techniques to provide individualized predictions of survival and recurrence outcomes for patients with newly diagnosed oropharyngeal cancer., Objective: To develop a model for individualized survival, locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis prognostication for patients with newly diagnosed oropharyngeal cancer, incorporating clinical, oncologic, and imaging data., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, a data set was used comprising 840 patients with newly diagnosed oropharyngeal cancer treated at a National Cancer Institute-designated center between January 2003 and August 2016; analysis was performed between January 2019 and June 2020. Using these data, a bayesian multistate model was developed that can be used to obtain individualized predictions. The prognostic performance of the model was validated using data from 447 patients treated for oropharyngeal cancer at Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands., Exposures: Clinical/oncologic factors and imaging biomarkers collected at or before initiation of first-line therapy., Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall survival, locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis after first-line cancer treatment., Results: Of the 840 patients included in the National Cancer Institute-designated center, 715 (85.1%) were men and 268 (31.9%) were current smokers. The Erasmus Medical Center cohort comprised 300 (67.1%) men, with 350 (78.3%) current smokers. Model predictions for 5-year overall survival demonstrated good discrimination, with area under the curve values of 0.81 for the model with and 0.78 for the model without imaging variables. Application of the model without imaging data in the independent Dutch validation cohort resulted in an area under the curve of 0.75. This model possesses good calibration and stratifies patients well in terms of likely outcomes among many competing events., Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, a multistate model of oropharyngeal cancer incorporating imaging biomarkers appeared to estimate and discriminate locoregional recurrence from distant metastases. Providing personalized predictions of multiple outcomes increases the information available for patients and clinicians. The web-based application designed in this study may serve as a useful tool for generating predictions and visualizing likely outcomes for a specific patient.

Background: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the AJCC eighth edition clinical staging system for human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma and to further understand how clinical stage and smoking history affect oncologic outcomes. The purpose of this study was to present the understanding of how clinical stage and smoking history affect oncologic outcomes in human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is critical for selecting patients for treatment deintensification., Methods: Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression were used to evaluate overall survival (OS), locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS), and distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS). Concordance statistics (C-indices) were used to compare discriminating ability., Results: The OS and DRFS but not LRFS were significantly distributed using the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) seventh and eighth editions criteria. The C-indices for OS, LRFS, and DRFS were 0.57, 0.54, and 0.60, respectively, using the AJCC seventh edition, and 0.63, 0.53, and 0.65, respectively, using the AJCC eighth edition. On multivariate analysis, 1 + pack-year smoking history correlated with OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-3.1; P < .01) but not LRFS or DRFS., Conclusion: These results support implementation of the AJCC eighth edition for HPV-associated oropharyngeal SCC. Clinical stage may be more important than smoking history in selection for deintensification., (© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Due to the high incidence of recurrent squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck and the toxicity profile of current salvage regimens, there is a need for tolerable and effective treatment options. We performed a retrospective matched case series to report our experience with recurrent high-risk patients who received capecitabine (CAP) therapy in the adjuvant setting after salvage therapy. The 5-year recurrence-free survival rates for the CAP and control cohorts were 54% (95% CI, 0.27%-0.75%) and 27% (95% CI, 0.09%-0.50%), respectively. Multivariable Cox modeling showed a significant improvement in recurrence-free survival in the CAP cohort (hazard ratio, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.04-0.92; P = .0392). While this was a respective analysis that could not control for all variables, these exploratory findings offer insights that may inform a prospective study to determine CAP efficacy.

Importance: The mandible is arguably the most frequently fractured facial bone in children. However, facial fractures are rare in children compared with adults, resulting in few large studies on patterns of pediatric facial fractures., Objective: To report the patterns, demographics, and cause of pediatric mandible fractures across the United States., Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective analysis was conducted of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's National Emergency Department Sample from January 1 to December 31, 2012, using the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision, codes for mandible fractures (802.20-802.39) among patients 18 years and younger who presented to emergency departments. Demographics, fracture site, and fracture mechanism were analyzed to identify factors associated with fractures. Analysis was conducted from July 9 to July 28, 2015., Results: There were 1984 records, representing a weighted estimate of 8848 cases of pediatric mandible fracture. The mean patient age was 14.0 years (95% CI, 13.6-14.3). The male to female ratio was 4:1 and females were comparatively younger, with a mean age of 12.5 years (95% CI, 11.8-13.1; P < .001). The most frequently fractured sites were the condyle, in 1288 patients (14.6% [95% CI, 12.6%-16.5%]), and the angle, in 1252 patients (14.1% [12.4%-15.9%]). Associated intracranial injuries occurred in 756 patients (8.5% [7.1%-10.0%]), and cervical spine fractures occurred in 393 (4.4% [3.5%-5.4%]). The fracture site and mechanism of injury varied with age and sex. For patients 12 years and younger, the most frequent fracture site was the condyle, accounting for 636 fractures (27.9% [24.2%-31.6%]), and the most frequent cause was falls, accounting for 692 fractures (30.3% [25.9%-34.8%]). In teenaged patients (13-18 years), the angle was the most frequent fracture site, accounting for 1157 fractures (17.6% [15.6%-19.6%]), and the most frequent cause was assault, accounting for 2619 fractures (39.9% [36.4%-43.3%]). For male patients, the angle was the predominant site, accounting for 1053 fractures (15.0% [13.1%-16.8%]), and the leading cause was assault, accounting for 2360 fractures (33.5% [30.2%-36.9%]). For female patients, the condyle was the most frequent site, accounting for 369 fractures (20.3% [16.0%-24.6%]), and the leading cause was falls, accounting for 422 fractures (23.2% [18.6%-28.0%])., Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, age and sex disparities among pediatric mandible fractures were identified. Younger patients and female patients tend to have condyle fractures caused more commonly by falls while older patients and male patients tend to have angle fractures caused by assault., Level of Evidence: NA.