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We use aircraft observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the NASA ARCTAS and NOAA ARCPAC campaigns in April 2008 together with multiyear (2003-2008) CO satellite data from the AIRS instrument and a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to better understand the sources, transport, and interannual variability of pollution in the Arctic in spring. Model simulation of the aircraft data gives best estimates of CO emissions in April 2008 of 26 Tg month-1 for Asian anthropogenic, 9.4 for European anthropogenic, 4.1 for North American anthropogenic, 15 for Russian biomass burning (anomalously large that year), and 23 for Southeast Asian biomass burning. We find that Asian anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of Arctic CO pollution everywhere except in surface air where European anthropogenic emissions are of similar importance. Russian biomass burning makes little contribution to mean CO (reflecting the long CO lifetime) but makes a large contribution to CO variability in the form of combustion plumes. Analysis of two pollution events sampled by the aircraft demonstrates that AIRS can successfully observe pollution transport to the Arctic in the mid-troposphere. The 2003-2008 record of CO from AIRS shows that interannual variability averaged over the Arctic cap is very small. AIRS CO columns over Alaska are highly correlated with the Ocean Niño Index, suggesting a link between El Niño and Asian pollution transport to the Arctic. AIRS shows lower-than-average CO columns over Alaska during April 2008, despite the Russian fires, due to a weakened Aleutian Low hindering transport from Asia and associated with the moderate 2007-2008 La Niña. This suggests that Asian pollution influence over the Arctic may be particularly large under strong El Niño conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article attempts to replicate on United States data the comparison of qualitative an quantitative inflation expectations in Australia conducted by Defris and Williams (1981). It also attempts to determine whether differences between the two sets of measures are of operational significance. The article examines whether the qualitative data are liable to leading incorrect conclusions about the rationality of expectations, and about the relationship between uncertainty about inflation and the level and variability of inflation itself. The structure of the survey of inflation expectations is described.

From an analysis of the track records of U.S. economic forecasters, Stekler (1987) concluded that “all forecasters are not equal” (p. 158). This article shows that his result is based on an incorrectly defined test statistic. When a more appropriate test is conducted, the figures suggest that accuracy rankings are not significantly different from those that might be expected as a result of sampling error in a population of equally accurate forecasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: United States military personnel deployed to Somalia were at risk for malaria, including chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria. This report details laboratory, clinical, preventive, and therapeutic aspects of malaria in this cohort., Patients and Methods: The study took place in US military field hospitals in Somalia, with US troops deployed to Somalia between December 1992 and May 1993. Centralized clinical care and country-wide disease surveillance facilitated standardized laboratory diagnosis, clinical records, epidemiologic studies, and assessment of chemoprophylactic efficacy., Results: Forty-eight cases of malaria occurred among US troops while in Somalia; 41 of these cases were P falciparum. Risk factors associated with malaria included: noncompliance with recommended chemoprophylaxis (odds ratio [OR] 2.4); failure to use bed nets (OR 2.6); and failure to keep sleeves rolled down (OR 2.2). Some patients developed malaria in spite of mefloquine (n = 8) or doxycycline (n = 5) levels of compatible with chemoprophylactic compliance. Five mefloquine failures had both serum levels > or = 650 ng/mL and metabolite:mefloquine ratios over 2, indicating chemoprophylactic failure. All cases were successfully treated, including 1 patient who developed cerebral malaria., Conclusions: P falciparum malaria attack rates were substantial in the first several weeks of Operation Restore Hope. While most cases occurred because of noncompliance with personal protective measures or chemoprophylaxis, both mefloquine and doxycycline chemoprophylactic failures occurred. Military or civilian travelers to East Africa must be scrupulous in their attention to both chemoprophylaxis and personal protection measures.

Dengue fever (DF) was considered to be a potential cause of febrile illness in U.S. troops deployed to Somalia during Operation Restore Hope in 1992-1993. A prospective study of hospitalized troops with fever and a seroepidemiologic survey of 530 troops were conducted. Among 289 febrile troops hospitalized, 129 (45%) did not have an identified cause of their fever. Dengue (DEN) virus was recovered from 41 (43%) of 96 of these patients by inoculation of admission sera into C6/36 cell cultures. Thirty-nine (41%) of the isolates were identified as DEN-2 and two (2%) as DEN-3 by an indirect immunofluorescent antibody assay. An additional 18 (49%) of 37 culture-negative cases were shown by immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to have anti-DEN virus antibody. All identified DF cases recovered within 1-2 weeks; no case of dengue hemorrhagic fever or shock syndrome was observed. A seroepidemiologic survey of a unit (n = 494) with 17 culture or serologically identified DF cases and a 13% attack rate of unidentified febrile illness revealed a 7.7% prevalence of anti-DEN virus IgM antibody. Failure to use bed nets was the only identified risk factor for DEN infection (adjusted odds ratio = 2.2, 95% confidence interval = 1.4-3.0). These data indicate that DF was an important cause of febrile illness among US troops in Somalia, and demonstrate the difficulties in preventing DEN infection in troops operating in field conditions.

The potential for widespread diarrheal disease was regarded as a substantial threat to U.S. troops participating in the early phases of Operation Restore Hope in Somalia. Outpatient surveillance of 20,859 U.S. troops deployed during the first eight weeks, however, indicated that a mean of only 0.8% (range 0.5-1.2%) of personnel sought care for diarrhea each week, and in three epidemiologic surveys, < 3% of troops reported experiencing a diarrheal illness per week. Despite these low overall attack rates, diarrhea accounted for 16% of 381 hospital admissions and 20% of 245 patients admitted with a temperature > or = 38.5 degrees C. Sixty-one specimens were obtained from inpatients and 52 were obtained from outpatients. Shigella sp. were isolated from 33%, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli from 16%, Giardia lamblia from 4%, and rotavirus from 1% of 113 stool samples obtained from inpatient (61) and outpatient (52) troops with diarrhea. Bacterial isolates obtained in Somalia were resistant to doxycycline (78%), ampicillin (54%), and sulfamethoxazole (49%), but uniformly sensitive to ciprofloxacin. With the exception of 10 Shigella sonnei isolates that were linked epidemiologically to one eating facility, bacterial pathogens occurred sporadically and demonstrated a wide variation of serotypes and antibiotic sensitivity patterns. Additionally, three of 11 paired sera collected from persons with nausea, vomiting, and watery diarrhea demonstrated a four-fold or greater increase in titer to Norwalk virus antibody. These data indicate that large outbreaks of diarrheal disease did not occur; however, highly drug-resistant enteric bacteria, and to a lesser extent viral and parasitic pathogens, were important causes of morbidity among U.S. troops in Somalia.

In support of Operation Restore Hope, the United States military established a diagnostic laboratory for infectious diseases, the Joint Forward Laboratory, in Mogadishu, Somalia. Because sporadic hepatitis due to unknown causes was a frequent problem, staff members of the Joint Forward Laboratory evaluated 31 Somalis, five displaced Ethiopians, and three Western relief workers who had acute clinical hepatitis. Patients lived in multiple locations in Somalia--Mogadishu, Baidoa, and Merca--and became ill between December 1992 and February 1993. IgM antibody to hepatitis A virus was found in one English relief worker, and IgM antibody to hepatitis E virus was found in 20 (65%) of 31 Somalis, two (40%) of five Ethiopians, and two (67%) of three Western relief workers. No patient had evidence of acute hepatitis B, malaria, yellow fever, or other arbovirus infections. These data indicate that hepatitis E virus--the major cause of enterically transmitted non-A, non-B hepatitis--was a common cause of acute sporadic hepatitis in Somalia during the initial stages of Operation Restore Hope.

A study of acute diarrhea was conducted from 1985 to 1987 among U.S. military personnel participating in routine shipboard exercises in South America and West Africa and ground troops deployed to coastal Ecuador. An enteropathogen was identified in 146 (51%) of 289 acute cases of diarrhea. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, found in 50 (17%) patients with diarrhea, was the most commonly identified enteropathogen. Viral enteropathogens were also found in a high percentage of acute cases of diarrhea: rotavirus was detected in 11% of the patients and Norwalk virus infection in 10%. Most enteric pathogens were acquired in equal frequencies in South America and West Africa, except for rotavirus infection which was identified more often in West Africa and enteroaggregative E. coli infection which was identified more often in South America. Bacterial enteropathogens were frequently resistant to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, but no resistance to quinolone drugs was observed, indicating that quinolone drugs have become important agents for the treatment of diarrhea in South America and West Africa.

A randomized treatment trial of travelers' diarrhea was carried out among U.S. military personnel participating in routine exercises in several port cities in South America and West Africa. A 5-day, twice daily course of either norfloxacin (400 mg) or trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (TMP/SMX, 160/800 mg) was given to 142 volunteers. At the end of 5 days of treatment, diarrhea had resolved in 100% of 73 patients receiving norfloxacin and 97.1% (67/69) receiving TMP/SMX. A probable bacterial pathogen was determined in 44% of 142 subjects: 49% of the norfloxacin group and 39% of the TMP/SMX group. The most common pathogens detected were enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli in 20% of cases and rotavirus in 15%. Resistance to TMP/SMX was present in 20 (27%) bacterial isolates, while no resistance to norfloxacin was found. Eight of 10 patients in the TMP/SMX treatment group who had TMP/SMX-resistant bacterial enteropathogens improved clinically. Both norfloxacin and TMP/SMX were clinically effective in the treatment of travelers' diarrhea in this military population.

During 1984-1989, 655 diarrheic and 287 nondiarrheic stool specimens from adult U.S. citizens living in Lima, Peru were tested for presence of bacterial enteropathogens. Frequencies of isolation among diarrheic specimens were: Shigella 9.8%; Campylobacter 6.1%; enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) 6.0%; Plesiomonas 2.0%; Salmonella 1.4%; and Vibrio 0.6%. Isolates recovered from non-diarrheic stools were: Shigella 4.5%; Campylobacter 2.1%; Salmonella 1.0%; ETEC 0.7%; Plesiomonas 0.7%; and Vibrio 0.3%. Aeromonas, an unproven cause of diarrhea, was isolated from 9.2% of cases and 3.5% of controls. Disease occurrence was strongly associated with isolation of Shigella, ETEC, Campylobacter, or Aeromonas (p less than or equal to 0.01). During the 6-year period of study, shifts in the dominant phenotypes of Shigella and Campylobacter occurred which may have important implications for vaccine development and intervention strategies.