1. Patterns of West Nile Virus in the Northeastern United States Using Negative Binomial and Mechanistic Trait‐Based Models.
- Author
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Keyel, Alexander C.
- Subjects
WEST Nile virus ,MOSQUITO control ,DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) ,BITES & stings ,CLIMATE change ,VIRAL transmission - Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) primarily infects birds and mosquitoes but has also caused over 2,000 human deaths, and >50,000 reported human cases in the United States. Expected numbers of WNV neuroinvasive cases for the present were described for the Northeastern United States, using a negative binomial model. Changes in temperature‐based suitability for WNV due to climate change were examined for the next decade using a temperature‐trait model. WNV suitability was generally expected to increase over the next decade due to changes in temperature, but the changes in suitability were generally small. Many, but not all, populous counties in the northeast are already near peak suitability. Several years in a row of low case numbers is consistent with a negative binomial, and should not be interpreted as a change in disease dynamics. Public health budgets need to be prepared for the expected infrequent years with higher‐than‐average cases. Low‐population counties that have not yet had a case are expected to have similar probabilities of having a new case as nearby low‐population counties with cases, as these absences are consistent with a single statistical distribution and random chance. Plain Language Summary: West Nile virus (WNV) is a virus spread to humans by mosquitoes that had previously bitten an infected animal, usually a bird. We described the chance of one human case over the next one or next 5 years, and the chance of five human cases in any single year over the next 5 years. These chances were broadly similar, and highlight known locations with high numbers of cases of WNV. We also looked at how WNV suitability is expected to change in the near future due to climate change using established methods. We found that suitability for West Nile is expected to increase over most of the northeast, but decrease in some locations. Some locations identified as suitable based on temperature have had relatively few cases. Key Points: Small increases in temperature‐based suitability for West Nile virus (WNV) are expected over most of the northeastern US in the next decadeYears with high and low cases are consistent with the same underlying statistical distributionTemperature‐based suitability for WNV in some of the most populous counties is expected to decrease under climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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