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There was continuing public and political concern about the loss of life at sea during the second half of the nineteenth century in Britain. New regulatory requirements, introduced to examine the competence of officers, prevent overloading and reduce the risks from hazardous cargoes such as coal, were in place by 1890. However, the effectiveness of these measures was not systematically monitored at the time. This retrospective evaluation reviews subsequent loss of life in the coal trade, the largest sector of British exports by weight. Loss of life remained high; it was more dangerous to export a ton of coal than it was to mine it. Some routes, such as those around Cape Horn and to Scandinavia, carried the highest risk, and losses on European voyages were more common in winter. Over time, the risks reduced as sail gave way to steam and diesel propulsion, and as maritime communications improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is limited evidence in the literature on the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatments for Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis (ASUC). The study aimed to perform decision analytic model-based long-term cost-utility analysis (CUA) of infliximab versus ciclosporin for steroid-resistant ASUC investigated in CONSTRUCT pragmatic trial. Methods: A decision tree (DT) model was developed using two-year health effect, resource use and costs data from CONSTRUCT trial to estimate relative cost-effectiveness of two competing drugs from the United Kingdom (UK) National Health Services (NHS) perspective. Using short-term trial data, a Markov model (MM) was then developed and evaluated over further 18 years. Both DT and MM were combined to investigate cost-effectiveness of infliximab versus ciclosporin for ASUC patients over 20-year time horizon, with a rigorous multiple deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to address uncertainty in results. Results: The decision tree mirrored trial-based results. Beyond 2-year trial follow-up, Markov model predicted a decrease in colectomy rate, but it remained slightly higher for ciclosporin. NHS costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) over base-case 20 year time horizon were £26,793 and 9.816 for ciclosporin and £34,185 and 9.106 for infliximab, suggesting ciclosporin dominates infliximab. Ciclosporin had 95% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold value up to £20,000. Conclusion: Using data from a pragmatic RCT, the cost-effectiveness models produced incremental net health benefit in favour of ciclosporin relative to infliximab. Results from long-term modelling indicated that ciclosporin remains dominant compared with infliximab for the treatment of NHS ASUC patients, however, these need to be interpreted cautiously. Trial registration: CONSTRUCT Trial registration number ISRCTN22663589; EudraCT number: 2008- 001968-36 (Date 27/08/2008). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is one of the most common, high risk emergency disorders in the western world. Almost nothing has been reported on longer term prognosis following upper GI bleeding. The aim of this study was to establish mortality up to three years following hospital admission with upper GI bleeding and its relationship with aetiology, co-morbidities and socio-demographic factors. Methods: Systematic record linkage of hospital inpatient and mortality data for 14 212 people in Wales, UK, hospitalised with upper GI bleeding between 1999 and 2004 with three year follow-up to 2007. The main outcome measures were mortality rates, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and relative survival. Results: Mortality at three years was 36.7% overall, based on 5215 fatalities. It was highest for upper GI malignancy (95% died within three years) and varices (52%). Compared with the general population, mortality was increased 27-fold during the first month after admission. It fell to 4.3 by month four, but remained significantly elevated during every month throughout the three years following admission. The most important independent prognostic predictors of mortality at three years were older age (mortality increased 53 fold for people aged 85 years and over compared with those under 40 years); oesophageal and gastric/duodenal malignancy (48 and 32 respectively) and gastric varices aetiologies (2.8) when compared with other bleeds; non-upper GI malignancy, liver disease and renal failure co-morbidities (15, 7.9 and 3.9); social deprivation (29% increase for quintile V vs I); incident bleeds as an inpatient (31% vs admitted with bleeding) and male patients (25% vs female). Conclusion: Our study shows a high late as well as early mortality for upper GI bleeding, with very poor longer term prognosis following bleeding due to malignancies and varices. Aetiologies with the worst prognosis were often associated with high levels of social deprivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents four focus groups conducted with health professionals, part of a mixed-method evaluation of modernization of endoscopy services in England catalyzed by the UK National Health Service Modernisation Agency. Transcripts were analyzed adapting van Manen's "sententious" or "wholistic' approach to thematic analysis. Seven analysts worked to distil lengthy transcripts into summative paragraphs to capture the essentiality of text. Five major themes emerged: lack of senior management understanding and appropriate management systems, inadequate resources, loss of personal autonomy and erosion of professionalism, barriers and facilitators to change, and differences between English and Welsh units--the Welsh perspective. Achieving long-lasting, positive effects of modernization within complex systems demands senior management to actively support innovations, consider staff morale, and provide appropriate levels of funding. However, although professional morale was low, ambition to improve services was strong. The methodological framework offered a comprehensive and applicable approach to data analysis, and our analysis approach was inclusive and collaborative, with far-reaching possibilities for experimental studies and large-scale, mixed-method studies, including trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although it is now widely endorsed that children should as far as possible rate their own health related quality of life (HRQL), there are situations where proxy information on child HRQL may be useful, especially where a child is too ill or young to provide their own HRQL assessment. There is limited availability of generic HRQL scales that have a parallel child and parent version and that are reliable, valid, brief, comprehensible and suitable for use in UK populations. The aims of this study were therefore to develop and validate a parent version of the anglicised Manchester-Minneapolis Quality of Life child form (MMQL-UK (CF)) and to determine the level of association between the child and parent versions of this form. Methods: This study was undertaken concurrently with the anglicisation and validation of the MMQL, a measure of HRQL developed for use with children in North America. At that time, no parent version existed, so the MMQL form for children (MMQL-UK (CF)) was used as the basis for the development of the MMQL-UK parent form (PF). The sample included a control group of healthy children and their parents and five exemplar groups; children diagnosed with asthma, diabetes or inflammatory bowel disease and their parents, children in remission from cancer and their parents and children in public care and their carers. Consistency of the MMQL-UK (PF) components were assessed by calculating Cronbach's alpha. Validation of the parent questionnaire was undertaken by comparing MMQL-UK (PF) component scores with comparable components on the proxy PedsQL™ quality of life scales, comparing MMQL-UK (PF) component scores between parents of healthy and chronic disease children and by comparison of component scores from children and their parents or carers. Reproducibility and responsiveness were assessed by retesting parents by follow-up questionnaires. Results: A total of 874 children (completing MMQL-UK (CF)) and 572 parents or carers (completing MMQL-UK (PF)) took part in the study. The internal consistency of all the MMQL-UK (PF) components exceeding the accepted criterion of 0.70 and the construct validity was good with moderate correlations being evident between comparable components of the MMQL-UK (PF) and the proxy PedsQL™. Discriminant validity was demonstrated with significant differences being identified between parents of healthy children and those with chronic conditions. Intra-class correlations exceeded 0.65 for all MMQL-UK (PF) components demonstrating good reproducibility. Weak to moderate levels of responsiveness were demonstrated for all but social functioning. The MMQL-UK (PF) showed moderate parent-child correlation with the MMQL-UK (CF) for all components. The best correlations were seen for those components measuring the same construct (Pearson's r ranged from 0.31 to 0.61, p < 0.01 for equivalent components). Conclusion: The MMQL-UK (PF) showed moderate to good correlations with the MMQL-UK (CF) component scores. The MMQL-UK (PF) will be of use when comparing child and parent/carer perception of the impact of a child's condition on their HRQL or where the child is too ill or young to provide their own report. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little has been reported about mortality among crews in passenger shipping. The aim of the study was to determine the detailed causes and circumstances of deaths from unnatural causes among crews employed in United Kingdom (UK) and Bermudan registered passenger shipping, their trends, how they relate to the type of passenger ship and crew rank and to discuss preventative measures., Materials and Methods: A longitudinal study from 1976 to 2018, based on reviews of marine accident investigation reports, death inquiry files, cruise shipping websites and online searches., Results: One hundred and forty crew fatalities in UK (127) and Bermudan (13) passenger ships were identified: from accidents and drowning (91), suicides and disappearances at sea (38), homicide, other and unexplained causes (11). Over the 43-year study period, a reduction in mortality (per 1000 ship-years) from accidents and drowning was identified (mean annual reduction: 4.3%; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-6.5%) but no significant reduction for suicides and disappearances at sea (annual reduction: 1.2% confidence interval: -1.3% to +3.7%). Most suicides and disappearances (70%) were among customer service Staff and, of 19 employed on large cruise ships, most (79%) were non-Europeans., Conclusions: The number of suicides and probable suicides is a cause for concern, especially among customer service staff on cruise ships. These findings indicate the need for interventions to reduce suicide risks. Further studies are needed to improve the targeting of interventions. These will need both to analyse the circumstances of individual deaths and derive suicide rates according to rank, department and nationality, based on reliable population denominators.

Objective: To assess health informatics (HI) training in UK postgraduate medical education, across all specialties, against international standards in the context of UK digital health initiatives (eg, Health Data Research UK, National Health Service Digital Academy and Global Digital Exemplars)., Design: A mixed methods study of UK postgraduate clinician training curricula (71 specialties) against international HI standards: scoping review, curricular content analysis and expert consultation., Setting and Participants: A scoping literature review (PubMed until March 2017) informed development of a contemporary framework of HI competency domains for doctors. National training curricula for 71 postgraduate medical specialties were obtained from the UK General Medical Council and were analysed. Seven UK HI experts were consulted regarding findings., Outcomes: The International Medical Informatics Association (IMIA) Recommendations for Biomedical and Health Informatics Education were used to develop a framework of competency domains. The number (maximum 50) of HI competency domains included in each of the 71 UK postgraduate medical specialties was investigated. After expert review, a universal HI competency framework was proposed., Results: A framework of 50 HI competency domains was developed using 21 curricula from a scoping review, curricular content analysis and expert consultation. All 71 UK postgraduate medical curricula documents were mapped across 29 of 50 framework domains; that is, 21 domains were unrepresented. Curricula mapped between 0 (child and adolescent psychiatry and core surgical training) and 16 (chemical pathology and paediatric and perinatal pathology) of the 50 domains (median=7). Expert consultation found that HI competencies should be universal and integrated with existing competencies for UK clinicians and were under-represented in current curricula. Additional universal HI competencies were identified, including information governance and security and secondary use of data., Conclusions: Postgraduate medical education in the UK neglects HI competencies set out by international standards. Key HI competencies need to be urgently integrated into training curricula to prepare doctors for work in increasingly digitised healthcare environments., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a severe manifestation of ulcerative colitis (UC) that warrants hospitalisation. Despite significant advances in therapeutic options for UC and in the medical management of steroid-refractory ASUC, the initial treatment paradigm has not changed since 1955 and is based on the use of intravenous corticosteroids. This treatment is successful in approximately 50% of patients but failure of this and subsequent medical therapy still occurs, with colectomy rates of up to 40% reported. The I nterleukin 1 (IL-1) blockade in A cute S evere C o litis (IASO) trial aims to investigate whether antagonism of IL-1 signalling using anakinra in addition to intravenous corticosteroid treatment can improve outcomes in patients with ASUC., Methods and Analysis: IASO is a phase II, multicentre, two-arm (parallel group), randomised (1:1), placebo-controlled, double-blinded trial of short-duration anakinra in ASUC. Its primary outcome will be the incidence of medical (eg, infliximab/ciclosporin) or surgical rescue therapy (colectomy) within 10 days following the commencement of intravenous corticosteroid therapy. Secondary outcomes will include disease activity, time to clinical response, time to rescue therapy, colectomy incidence by day 98 post intravenous corticosteroids and safety. The trial aims to recruit 214 patients across 20 sites in the UK., Ethics and Dissemination: The trial has received approval from the Cambridge Central Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 17/EE/0347), the Health Research Authority (Ref: 201505) and Clinical Trials Authorisation from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. We plan to present trial findings at scientific conferences and publish in high-impact peer-reviewed journals., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN43717130; EudraCT 2017-001389-10., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: There is very limited systematic analysis of the causes and consequences of maritime accidents across the whole passenger sector during the twentieth century either in United Kingdom (UK) or in other maritime nations, but some of the larger events have been the subject of detailed investigations that led to improved safety measures. In recent years, there has been increased attention to the analysis of passenger ship accidents, especially in relation to the two now dominant markets: vehicle/passenger ferries and cruise ships., Materials and Methods: Long-term trends since 1900 in passenger and crew deaths on UK seagoing pas- senger ships that have sustained a maritime accident, as defined by Lloyds Register, have been collated and analysed., Results: Over the course of the 20th century, there has been a continuous fall in the number of incidents and in their severity. This may be a reflection of improved vessel safety, however the scale and nature of UK passenger shipping has also changed markedly over the period., Conclusions: In addition to the reducing frequency of deaths it is apparent that the majority of fatalities in both crew and passengers came from a very small number of major events during the study period. Altho- ugh there has been no major disaster involving a UK passenger ship in the last 30 years, major casualties with heavy loss of life continue in the world passenger fleet, in recent years involving flags such as Greece, Indonesia, Italy, Panama and The Philippines.

Hospital episode statistics were originally designed to monitor activity and allocate resources in the NHS. Recently their uses have widened to include analysis of individuals' activity, to inform appraisal and revalidation, and monitor performance. This study investigated physician attitudes to the validity and usefulness of these data for such purposes, and the effect of supporting individuals in data interpretation. A randomised study was conducted with consultant physicians in England, Wales and Scotland. The intervention group was supported by a clinician and an information analyst in obtaining and analysing their own data. The control group was unsupported. Attitudes to the data and confidence in their ability to reflect clinical practice were examined before and after the intervention. It was concluded that hospital episode statistics are not presently fit for monitoring the performance of individual physicians. A more comprehensive description of activity is required for these purposes. Improvements in the quality of existing data through clinical engagement at a local level, however, are possible.

Objectives: There has been a rapid growth in the use of patient-assessed outcomes (PAOs) that are measured in the assessment of health technologies. The process of collection of such measures can be costly, and there may be problems associated with the ability of the patient to complete them. The use of electronically stored routine data may reduce costs and overcome the problems associated with patient completion. The feasibility of using routine data surrogates for the UK Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (UKIBDQ) and the Short Form 36 (SF-36) was examined., Methods: Clinical terms and codes for the UKIBDQ and SF-36 questions were identified, and data from electronic routine sources were sought on patients participating in a randomized controlled trial. The presence or absence of relevant symptoms was used to generate surrogate scores, which were compared with the original scores., Results: Most questions in the UKIBDQ and SF-36 were codable but only one third of the terms were recorded routinely in electronic form. The surrogate total IBDQ score had reasonable reliability (Kuder-Richardson coefficient = 0.51), but this reliability could not be determined for the SF-36. Intraclass correlations between routine and designed data were poor to weak., Conclusions: Although electronic routine data sources had the capacity to develop surrogate measures for patient assessed outcomes, there was evidence of wide underutilization of coding systems leading to an underreporting of symptoms. This finding is consistent with previous literature where only poor correlations were illustrated between patient assessed outcomes and surrogate scoring of symptoms.