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Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a globally distributed zoonotic disease with significant economic impacts. Control measures in Great Britain include testing for and culling diseased animals. Farmers receive compensation for the value of culled animals, but not for the consequential costs of having to comply with testing and associated control measures. Such uncompensated costs can be significant. We present results of a survey of 1,600 dairy and beef farm holdings conducted in England and Wales to update and improve estimates of these consequential costs.Estimated costs are positively skewed and show considerable variance, which is in agreement with previous, smaller scale surveys of bTB: most farms experiencing bTB incur modest costs but some suffer significant costs. Testing, movement restrictions and output losses account for over three quarters of total uncompensated costs. Total costs rise with herd size and duration of controls. The composition of consequential costs changes as total costs increase, with an increasing proportion of the costs being associated with output losses and movement restrictions, and a decreasing proportion of costs associated with testing costs. Consequential costs tend to be higher for dairy than beef herds but this is likely due to larger herd sizes for dairy.Overall we find the total farm costs of bTB surpass those compensated for by Government in Great Britain. This study contributes to the public-private cost-sharing debate as farmers bear some of the economic burden of a disease breakdown. The methodology and results presented are crucial for informed Government and farmer decision-making. The identification of potential risk factors in this study was challenging but is of relevance outside GB., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest Each author of this research article has declared no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and vector populations and their interactions with each other, environmental variables and land-use changes makes understanding the likely impacts of climate change on VBDs challenging. We present an environmentally driven, stage-structured, host-vector mathematical modelling framework to address this challenge. We apply our framework to predict the risk of WNV outbreaks in current and future UK climates. WNV is a mosquito-borne arbovirus which has expanded its range in mainland Europe in recent years. We predict that, while risks will remain low in the coming two to three decades, the risk of WNV outbreaks in the UK will increase with projected temperature rises and outbreaks appear plausible in the latter half of this century. This risk will increase substantially if increased temperatures lead to increases in the length of the mosquito biting season or if European strains show higher replication at lower temperatures than North American strains.

Background: Many mosquito-borne diseases exhibit substantial seasonality, due to strong links between environmental variables and vector and pathogen life-cycles. Further, a range of density-dependent and density-independent biotic and abiotic processes affect the phenology of mosquito populations, with potentially large knock-on effects for vector dynamics and disease transmission. Whilst it is understood that density-independent and density-dependent processes affect seasonal population levels, it is not clear how these interact temporally to shape the population peaks and troughs. Due to this, the paucity of high-resolution data for validation, and the difficulty of parameterizing density-dependent processes, models of vector dynamics may poorly estimate abundances, which has knock-on effects for our ability predict vector-borne disease outbreaks., Results: We present a rich dataset describing seasonal abundance patterns of each life stage of Culex pipiens, a widespread vector of West Nile virus, at a field site in southern England in 2015. Abundance of immature stages was measured three times per week, whilst adult traps were run four nights each week. This dataset is integrated with an existing delay-differential equation model predicting Cx. pipiens seasonal abundance to improve understanding of observed seasonal abundance patterns. At our field site, the outcome of our model fitting suggests interspecific predation on mosquito larvae and temperature-dependent larval mortality combine to act as the main sources of population regulation throughout the active season, whilst competition for resources is a relatively small source of larval mortality., Conclusions: The model suggests that density-independent mortality and interspecific predation interact to shape patterns of mosquito seasonal abundance in a permanent aquatic habitat and we propose that competition for resources is likely to be important where periods of high rainfall create transient habitats. Further, we highlight the importance of challenging population abundance models with data from across all life stages of the species of interest if reliable inferences are to be drawn from these models, particularly when considering mosquito control and vector-borne disease transmission.