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Background: Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) based on results from genome-wide association studies offer the prospect of risk stratification for many common and complex diseases. We developed a PRS for alcohol-associated cirrhosis by comparing single-nucleotide polymorphisms among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (ALC) versus drinkers who did not have evidence of liver fibrosis/cirrhosis., Methods: Using a data-driven approach, a PRS for ALC was generated using a meta-genome-wide association study of ALC (N=4305) and an independent cohort of heavy drinkers with ALC and without significant liver disease (N=3037). It was validated in 2 additional independent cohorts from the UK Biobank with diagnosed ALC (N=467) and high-risk drinking controls (N=8981) and participants in the Indiana Biobank Liver cohort with alcohol-associated liver disease (N=121) and controls without liver disease (N=3239)., Results: A 20-single-nucleotide polymorphisms PRS for ALC (PRSALC) was generated that stratified risk for ALC comparing the top and bottom deciles of PRS in the 2 validation cohorts (ORs: 2.83 [95% CI: 1.82 -4.39] in UK Biobank; 4.40 [1.56 -12.44] in Indiana Biobank Liver cohort). Furthermore, PRSALC improved the prediction of ALC risk when added to the models of clinically known predictors of ALC risk. It also stratified the risk for metabolic dysfunction -associated steatotic liver disease -cirrhosis (3.94 [2.23 -6.95]) in the Indiana Biobank Liver cohort -based exploratory analysis., Conclusions: PRSALC incorporates 20 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, predicts increased risk for ALC, and improves risk stratification for ALC compared with the models that only include clinical risk factors. This new score has the potential for early detection of heavy drinking patients who are at high risk for ALC., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Background: High alcohol intake is associated with increased mortality. We aimed to identify factors affecting mortality in people drinking extreme amounts of alcohol., Methods: We obtained information from the UK Biobank on approximately 500,000 participants aged 40-70 years at baseline assessment in 2006-2010. Habitual alcohol intake, lifestyle and physiological data, laboratory test results, and hospital diagnoses and death certificate data (to June 2020) for 5136 men (2.20% of male participants) and 1504 women (0.60%) who reported consuming ≥80 or ≥50 g/day, respectively, were used in survival analysis., Results: Mortality hazard ratios for these excessive drinkers, compared to all other participants, were 2.02 (95% CI 1.89-2.17) for all causes, 1.89 (1.69-2.12) for any cancer, 1.87 (1.61-2.17) for any circulatory disease, and 9.40 (7.00-12.64) for any liver disease. Liver disease diagnosis or abnormal liver function tests predicted not only deaths attributed to liver disease but also those from cancers or circulatory diseases. Mortality among excessive drinkers was also associated with quantitative alcohol intake; diagnosed alcohol dependence, harmful use, or withdrawal syndrome; and current smoking at assessment., Conclusions: People with chronic excessive alcohol intake experience decreased average survival, but there is substantial variation in their mortality, with liver abnormality and alcohol dependence or other alcohol use disorders associated with a worse prognosis. Clinically, patients with these risk factors and high alcohol intake should be considered for early or intensive management. Research can usefully focus on the factors predisposing to dependence or liver abnormality., (© 2022 The Authors. Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Research Society on Alcoholism.)

Introduction: Sustained high alcohol intake is necessary but not sufficient to produce alcohol-related cirrhosis. Identification of risk factors, apart from lifetime alcohol exposure, would assist in discovery of mechanisms and prediction of risk., Methods: We conducted a multicenter case-control study (GenomALC) comparing 1,293 cases (with alcohol-related cirrhosis, 75.6% male) and 754 controls (with equivalent alcohol exposure but no evidence of liver disease, 73.6% male). Information confirming or excluding cirrhosis, and on alcohol intake and other potential risk factors, was obtained from clinical records and by interview. Case-control differences in risk factors discovered in the GenomALC participants were validated using similar data from 407 cases and 6,573 controls from UK Biobank., Results: The GenomALC case and control groups reported similar lifetime alcohol intake (1,374 vs 1,412 kg). Cases had a higher prevalence of diabetes (20.5% (262/1,288) vs 6.5% (48/734), P = 2.27 × 10-18) and higher premorbid body mass index (26.37 ± 0.16 kg/m2) than controls (24.44 ± 0.18 kg/m2, P = 5.77 × 10-15). Controls were significantly more likely to have been wine drinkers, coffee drinkers, smokers, and cannabis users than cases. Cases reported a higher proportion of parents who died of liver disease than controls (odds ratio 2.25 95% confidence interval 1.55-3.26). Data from UK Biobank confirmed these findings for diabetes, body mass index, proportion of alcohol as wine, and coffee consumption., Discussion: If these relationships are causal, measures such as weight loss, intensive treatment of diabetes or prediabetic states, and coffee consumption should reduce the risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis., (Copyright © 2020 by The American College of Gastroenterology.)

Background & Aims: Several models have been used to determine prognoses of patients with alcoholic hepatitis. These include static systems (the Maddrey discriminant function; age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, creatinine [ABIC] score; and model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] score) and dynamic models (the Lille model). We aimed to combine features of all of these models to develop a better method to predict outcomes of patients with alcoholic hepatitis., Methods: We collected data from several databases of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis treated with corticosteroids in France and the United Kingdom to create a model to predict patient survival (derivation cohort, n = 538 patients). We compared the performances of 3 joint-effect models (Maddrey+Lille, MELD+Lille, and ABIC+Lille) to determine which combination had the best prognostic value, based on known patient outcomes. The model was validated using data from trials of the effects of corticosteroids in patients in the United States, France, Korea, and Belgium (n = 604 patients)., Results: We created a joint-effect model to predict patient survival after 2 and 6 months; in the derivation and validation cohorts it predicted outcome significantly better than either static or dynamic models alone (P < .01 for all comparisons). The joint model accurately predicted patient survival regardless of patient risk level. The MELD+Lille combination was better than the Maddrey+Lille or ABIC+Lille combination in predicting patient survival, with Akaike information criterion values of 1305, 1313, and 1312, respectively. For example, based on the MELD+Lille combination model, the predicted 6-month mortality of complete responders with MELD scores of 15-45 (Lille score, 0.16) was 8.5% to 49.7%, compared with 16.4%-75.2% for nonresponders (Lille score, 0.45). According to the joint-effect model, for 2 patients with the same baseline MELD score of 21, the patient with a Lille score of 0.45 had a 1.9-fold higher risk of death than the patient with a Lille score of 0.16 (23.7% vs 12.5%)., Conclusions: By combining results from static and dynamic scoring systems for liver disease, we can better predict outcomes of patients with alcoholic hepatitis, compared with either model alone. This may help patient management and design of clinical trials., (Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)