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Background: The main conventional systemic treatments for atopic dermatitis (AD) are methotrexate (MTX) and ciclosporin (CyA). Dupilumab was the first novel systemic agent to enter routine clinical practice. There are no head-to-head randomized controlled trials or real-world studies comparing these agents directly. Network meta-analyses provide indirect comparative efficacy and safety data and have shown strong evidence for dupilumab and CyA., Objectives: To compare the real-world clinical effectiveness and safety of CyA, dupilumab and MTX in AD., Methods: We compared the effectiveness and safety of these systemic agents in a prospective observational cohort study of adult and paediatric patients recruited into the UK-Irish Atopic eczema Systemic TherApy Register (A-STAR). Treatment effectiveness measures included Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI), Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM), Peak Pruritus Numerical Rating Scale (PP-NRS), Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) and children's DLQI (cDLQI). The minimum duration of treatment was 28 days and follow-up was 12 months. Adjusted Cox-regression analysis was used to compare the hazard ratios of achieving EASI-50, EASI-75 and EASI-90 over time, and linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate changes in efficacy scores. Treatment safety was assessed by examining adverse events (AEs) at follow-up visits., Results: We included 488 patients (311 adults and 177 children/adolescents) on dupilumab (n = 282), MTX (n = 149) or CyA (n = 57). CyA and MTX were primarily used as the first-line treatment, while dupilumab was mainly a second-line systemic treatment as per UK National Institute of Clinical and Care Excellence (NICE) recommendations. EASI-50, EASI-75 and EASI-90 were achieved more rapidly in the dupilumab and CyA groups compared with MTX. After adjustment for previous severity, the reduction in EASI, POEM, PP-NRS and DLQI was greater for patients treated with dupilumab compared with MTX. In patients with severe disease the reduction in EASI, POEM and PP-NRS was even greater with CyA. The incidence rates of AEs were similar across groups (734, 654 and 594 per 10 000 person-month on CyA, dupilumab and MTX, respectively)., Conclusions: This real-world comparison of CyA, dupilumab and MTX in AD suggests that dupilumab is consistently more effective than MTX and that CyA is most effective in very severe disease within 1 year of follow-up., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The full conflicts of interest statement is provided in Appendix 3., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of British Association of Dermatologists.)

Background: The GARFIELD-AF tool is a novel risk tool that simultaneously assesses the risk of all-cause mortality, stroke or systemic embolism, and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF)., Aim: To validate the GARFIELD-AF tool using UK primary care electronic records., Design and Setting: A retrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics mortality data., Method: Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated using calibration-in-the-large regression and calibration plots., Results: A total of 486 818 patients aged ≥18 years with incident diagnosis of non-valvular AF between 2 January 1998 and 31 July 2020 were included; 50.6% ( n = 246 425/486 818) received anticoagulation at diagnosis The GARFIELD- AF models outperformed the CHA 2 DS 2 VASc and HAS-BLED scores in discrimination ability of death, stroke, and major bleeding at all the time points. The AUC for events at 1 year for the 2017 models were: death 0.747 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.744 to 0.751) versus 0.635 (95% CI = 0.631 to 0.639) for CHA 2 DS 2 VASc; stroke 0.666 (95% CI = 0.663 to 0.669) versus 0.625 (95% CI = 0.622 to 0.628) for CHA 2 DS 2 VASc; and major bleeding 0.602 (95% CI = 0.598 to 0.606) versus 0.558 (95% CI = 0.554 to 0.562) for HAS- BLED. Calibration between predicted and Kaplan- Meier observed events was inadequate with the GARFIELD-AF models., Conclusion: The GARFIELD-AF models were superior to the CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score for discriminating stroke and death and superior to the HAS-BLED score for discriminating major bleeding. The models consistently underpredicted the level of risk, suggesting that a recalibration is needed to optimise its use in the UK population., (© The Authors.)

Background: The associations between pregnancy hypertensive disorders and common cardiovascular disorders have not been investigated at scale in a contemporaneous population. We aimed to investigate the association between preeclampsia, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and subsequent diagnosis of 12 different cardiovascular disorders., Methods: We used linked electronic health records from 1997 to 2016 to recreate a UK population-based cohort of 1.3 million women, mean age at delivery 28 years, with nearly 1.9 million completed pregnancies. We used multivariable Cox models to determine the associations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and preeclampsia alone (term and preterm), with 12 cardiovascular disorders in addition to chronic hypertension. We estimated the cumulative incidence of a composite end point of any cardiovascular disorder according to preeclampsia exposure., Results: During the 20-year study period, 18 624 incident cardiovascular disorders were observed, 65% of which had occurred in women under 40 years. Compared to women without hypertension in pregnancy, women who had 1 or more pregnancies affected by preeclampsia had a hazard ratio of 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.53-2.35) for any stroke, 1.67 (1.54-1.81) for cardiac atherosclerotic events, 1.82 (1.34-2.46) for peripheral events, 2.13 (1.64-2.76) for heart failure, 1.73 (1.38-2.16) for atrial fibrillation, 2.12 (1.49-2.99) for cardiovascular deaths, and 4.47 (4.32-4.62) for chronic hypertension. Differences in cumulative incidence curves, according to preeclampsia status, were apparent within 1 year of the first index pregnancy. Similar patterns of association were observed for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, while preterm preeclampsia conferred slightly further elevated risks., Conclusions: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, have a similar pattern of increased risk across all 12 cardiovascular disorders and chronic hypertension, and the impact was evident soon after pregnancy. Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy should be considered as a natural screening tool for cardiovascular events, enabling cardiovascular risk prevention through national initiatives.

Background: High-throughput profiling of circulating metabolites may improve cardiovascular risk prediction over established risk factors., Methods and Results: We applied quantitative nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics to identify the biomarkers for incident cardiovascular disease during long-term follow-up. Biomarker discovery was conducted in the National Finnish FINRISK study (n=7256; 800 events). Replication and incremental risk prediction was assessed in the Southall and Brent Revisited (SABRE) study (n=2622; 573 events) and British Women's Health and Heart Study (n=3563; 368 events). In targeted analyses of 68 lipids and metabolites, 33 measures were associated with incident cardiovascular events at P<0.0007 after adjusting for age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes mellitus, and medication. When further adjusting for routine lipids, 4 metabolites were associated with future cardiovascular events in meta-analyses: higher serum phenylalanine (hazard ratio per standard deviation, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.24; P=4×10(-10)) and monounsaturated fatty acid levels (1.17; 1.11-1.24; P=1×10(-8)) were associated with increased cardiovascular risk, while higher omega-6 fatty acids (0.89; 0.84-0.94; P=6×10(-5)) and docosahexaenoic acid levels (0.90; 0.86-0.95; P=5×10(-5)) were associated with lower risk. A risk score incorporating these 4 biomarkers was derived in FINRISK. Risk prediction estimates were more accurate in the 2 validation cohorts (relative integrated discrimination improvement, 8.8% and 4.3%), albeit discrimination was not enhanced. Risk classification was particularly improved for persons in the 5% to 10% risk range (net reclassification, 27.1% and 15.5%). Biomarker associations were further corroborated with mass spectrometry in FINRISK (n=671) and the Framingham Offspring Study (n=2289)., Conclusions: Metabolite profiling in large prospective cohorts identified phenylalanine, monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids as biomarkers for cardiovascular risk. This study substantiates the value of high-throughput metabolomics for biomarker discovery and improved risk assessment., (© 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Objective: To develop and validate a prediction model for incident locomotor disability after 7 years in older adults., Setting: Prospective British cohort studies: British Women's Heart and Health Study (BWHHS) for development and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) for validation., Subjects: Community-dwelling older adults., Methods: Multivariable logistic regression models after selection of predictors with backward elimination. Model performance was assessed using metrics of discrimination and calibration. Models were internally and externally validated., Results: Locomotor disability was reported in BWHHS by 861 of 1,786 (48%) women after 7 years. Age, a history of arthritis and low physical activity levels were the most important predictors of locomotor disability. Models using routine measures as predictors had satisfactory calibration and discrimination (c-index 0.73). Addition of 31 blood markers did not increase the predictive performance. External validation in ELSA showed reduced discrimination (c-index 0.65) and an underestimation of disability risks. A web-based calculator for locomotor disability is available (http://www.sealedenvelope.com/trials/bwhhsmodel/)., Conclusions: We developed and externally validated a prediction model for incident locomotor disability in older adults based on routine measures available to general practitioners, patients and public health workers, and showed an adequate discrimination. Addition of blood markers from major biological pathways did not improve the performance of the model. Further replication in additional data sets may lead to further enhancement of the current model., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)