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Breeding populations of many wading birds have declined globally, primarily caused by habitat degradation and loss. In the UK, population declines have been particularly notable on lowland wet grasslands. In response, some areas of lowland wet grassland have been restored and are under ongoing management to improve the breeding conditions of target species. Here, we assess the efficacy of management measures using a Bayesian framework and controlling for confounding factors. We focus on four wader species, Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus, Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata, Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago and Common Redshank Tringa totanus, that breed in numbers on wet grassland reserve sites in the UK. We collated annual site‐specific climate variables, management information (e.g. the creation of wet features and predator control measures) and bird counts between 1994 and 2018. We found the effects of conservation actions varied between intervention types and species. For Lapwing and Redshank, excluding predators by predator‐exclusion fencing, especially in combination with fox control, was generally associated with higher breeding counts. For all study species, sites with longer histories of management were associated with higher breeding numbers, with the effect of site age being particularly notable for management on former arable land. Our findings support the effectiveness of targeted conservation actions to achieve high numbers of breeding waders on lowland wet grassland reserves, and also highlight the value of consistent and reliable monitoring data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact., (© 2021 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)