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The COVID-19 pandemic exposed a global deficiency of systematic, data-driven guidance to identify high-risk individuals. Here, we illustrate the utility of routinely recorded medical history to predict the risk for 1883 diseases across clinical specialties and support the rapid response to emerging health threats such as COVID-19. We developed a neural network to learn from health records of 502,460 UK Biobank. Importantly, we observed discriminative improvements over basic demographic predictors for 1774 (94.3%) endpoints. After transferring the unmodified risk models to the All of US cohort, we replicated these improvements for 1347 (89.8%) of 1500 investigated endpoints, demonstrating generalizability across healthcare systems and historically underrepresented groups. Ultimately, we showed how this approach could have been used to identify individuals vulnerable to severe COVID-19. Our study demonstrates the potential of medical history to support guidance for emerging pandemics by systematically estimating risk for thousands of diseases at once at minimal cost., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background To analyze the quantity and impact of cardiovascular research done in Africa or coauthored by researchers based in Africa, their determinants, and the patterns of research collaboration. Methods and Results We retrieved data from Web of Science and additional sources. We analyzed temporal trends from 1971 to 2021 and geographical distribution, research impact using country-level h-index, international research cooperation, and associations of research quantity and quality using linear regression. The annual volume of cardiovascular research from Africa has increased from 4 publications in 1971 to 3867 in 2020 and currently represents ~3% of the global cardiovascular research output. Authors from South Africa (28.1%) and Egypt (24.1%) accounted for more than half of all publications from African countries, and they had the highest h-index (209 and 111, respectively). Important collaborators outside Africa included the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Australia. The country's publication count was associated with larger population size ( P <0.001), whereas the country's h-index was associated with larger population size ( P =0.001) and higher human development index ( P =0.023). International collaboration was dominated by the United States, South Africa, United Kingdom, Egypt, and Canada. The level of collaboration between African countries was lower than their collaboration with non-African countries. Conclusions Cardiovascular research output from African authors remains low, despite marked progress over the past 5 decades. These findings highlight the urgent need to improve the quantity and quality of cardiovascular research in Africa through increased investments, training of human resources, improved infrastructures, and expansion of collaborative research networks, particularly within Africa.

Background: Catheter-based renal denervation has significantly reduced blood pressure in previous studies. Following a positive pilot trial, the SPYRAL HTN-OFF MED (SPYRAL Pivotal) trial was designed to assess the efficacy of renal denervation in the absence of antihypertensive medications., Methods: In this international, prospective, single-blinded, sham-controlled trial, done at 44 study sites in Australia, Austria, Canada, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Japan, the UK, and the USA, hypertensive patients with office systolic blood pressure of 150 mm Hg to less than 180 mm Hg were randomly assigned 1:1 to either a renal denervation or sham procedure. The primary efficacy endpoint was baseline-adjusted change in 24-h systolic blood pressure and the secondary efficacy endpoint was baseline-adjusted change in office systolic blood pressure from baseline to 3 months after the procedure. We used a Bayesian design with an informative prior, so the primary analysis combines evidence from the pilot and Pivotal trials. The primary efficacy and safety analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02439749., Findings: From June 25, 2015, to Oct 15, 2019, 331 patients were randomly assigned to either renal denervation (n=166) or a sham procedure (n=165). The primary and secondary efficacy endpoints were met, with posterior probability of superiority more than 0·999 for both. The treatment difference between the two groups for 24-h systolic blood pressure was -3·9 mm Hg (Bayesian 95% credible interval -6·2 to -1·6) and for office systolic blood pressure the difference was -6·5 mm Hg (-9·6 to -3·5). No major device-related or procedural-related safety events occurred up to 3 months., Interpretation: SPYRAL Pivotal showed the superiority of catheter-based renal denervation compared with a sham procedure to safely lower blood pressure in the absence of antihypertensive medications., Funding: Medtronic., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)